By Steve Goddard
The experts at East Anglia and CRU told us in 2000 that :
(March, 2000) According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes – or eventually “feel” virtual cold.
The 255 experts at the AAAS denouncing “climate deniers” in an open letter described this past winter in these cleverly sarcastic terms :
The planet is warming due to increased concentrations of heat-trapping gases in our atmosphere. A snowy winter in Washington does not alter this fact.
I appreciate that government bureaucrats believe that there is no world outside Washington, yet nature has given us the opportunity to grade both the predictive and observational skills of the experts. And it looks like they deserve a rather poor grade. According to data collected by Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, this past October through March period was the snowiest on record in the Northern Hemisphere – with an average monthly snow cover of 39,720,106 km2. Second place occurred in 1970 at 39,574,224 km2.
‘
We also know that the past decade had the snowiest winters on record.
A month ago I discussed an AGW sacred cow – Glacier National Park. At that time, a WUWT reader (Craig Moore) expressed his concern about the lack of snowcover in Montana this year. The good news for Craig is that as of yesterday, snowpack in Montana is 98% of normal. California is 117% of normal. Arizona is 175% of normal. Wyoming is 101% of normal, etc.
Every good and conscientious citizen knows that snow cover is disappearing due to global warming. Google turns up over 100,000 hits on that topic. This is what the disappearing snowcover looked like in my neighborhood yesterday morning.
With lots more cold and snow on the way.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html
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Scott says:
May 13, 2010 at 10:34 am
“In my opinion, changes in snowfall (even over times as long as a decade) don’t necessarily mean yes or no to AGW.”
You miss the point of the post, Scott, Mr. Goddard opened his item with a quote; which he then obliterated by showing how cold and snowy the recent (unfinished) winter in the Northern Hemisphere has been, we in Britain have had the coldest May night since 1967 in parts of Yorkshire.
The underlying meme of Mr. Goddards post is; the AGW crowd are always banging on about how ‘winters have disappeared’ and seasons are ‘warming’ , runaway global temps’ etc.
Blowing holes in their blustering pontifications is an ongoing process.
Regards, Athelstan.
Viner and Parker could take their offspring a few hundred miles north to Cairngorm, where the Scottish ski industry is enjoying one of its best seasons.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8657311.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8544972.stm
On that second video – I wonder what is the albedo effect of using explosives to prime avalanches at the tops of these mountains. Will we be hearing all about summit ice loss in July? Blamed on MMGW?
I’m sorry you are just not going to get a grant telling person there is nothing to worry about. If you must use facts re-phrase them along these lines: “Experts today insisted that due to unprecedented changes coming to your neighborhood really bad things will happen to you. According to Doctor C. Little of the Catastrophe Research Center and Tax Sink-Hole Institute (CRSTSI) there is exactly an 89.9571 percent chance that the sky will fall.
Accurate and truthfull forecasts from the warmists are a thing of the past.
“Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”
It is bad day when you say something and the sceptics they despise point out the error.
Thanks Steve. And related to your referenced article from the Independent (Mr. Viner) we also had this story from the Independent dated September 2005:
If Co2 caused all that mayhem then maybe co2 is causing all this current snow and ice mayhem!!!! :o)
And western Canada has seen the mildest winter on record. What does the snowiest record in the northern hemisphere mean for global temperatures and global raming/cooling? Nada! Because we are talking apple and oranges. Global Ts have shot up recently because of El Nino superimposed on the forced warming trend and we had the warmest January and March on record – global, not British…check Roy Spencer’s satellite data! And, doesn’t increased precipitation coincide with warming?
Cherry pickers and brainwashers at work on this site!
There was a talk at the GeoCanada 2010 according to which the atmosphere cannot melt the sea ice as 9/10 of it is underneath the water. Ouch.
The audio file of the talk is here:
http://friendsofginandtonic.org/
I conclude: two half wits yield a dim wit!
The talk of warming tends to ignore how insignificant the temperature changes are in comparison to the range of temperature which is considered normal for any day of the year in any location. HADCET shows a 10/90% spread of maybe 10 degrees C. It’s going to take a significant amount of warming before the normal range is affected in a noticeable way.i
Scott’s point (above) is good and well made. This story isn’t much at all about distinguishing between weather and climate. It is much more poignant than that, in that it very clearly highlights the flaws in climatologists’ current understanding of the climate, and their gross misuse of short-term meteorological observations for the purpose of political grandstanding.
This article merely underlines the flaws in the science of climatologists both for their blatant AGW political advocacy and also their own abysmal lack of practical understanding of the thing itself.
“Snow a thing of the past.” Yeah! What’s up with THAT!?
Ah, the picture looks like Springtime in Colorado, I recognize the quivering aspen, evergreens and cottonwood trees.
Of course it depends on where you live. In New York State’s southern tier we had a mild winter with much less snow than normal. It rarely went below zero degrees Fahrenheit all winter.
I was in the field around Tonapah, Nevada last week to collect some samples from a lithium deposit. It was warm in Las Vegas when I arrived from Canada but when I got to Tonapah I had to borrow a parka to go into the field for the day (ice on horse troughs in the morning and a stiff breeze).
I am still counting the cost of the coldest winter for many years in my garden, and feeling pleased that I didn’t follow the advice of the doom-mongers to convert to a Mediterranean style garden with heat loving, drought tolerant plants. And this is in the North West of England, which normally benefits somewhat from the gulf stream, so much so that we have only seen lasting snow on a few occasions in 25 years.
Among the saddest losses was my fig tree – planted against a south-facing wall over 20 years ago and now a 30ft wide collection of sticks. Everyone in the area has lost their bay trees, and it is only now, after a late spring, that the gaps in the shrub borders are manifesting themselves.
So from a purely subjective viewpoint the so-called experts got it wildly wrong.
I made a pretty good forecast looking back 179yrs and 1 month.
112 Earth/Venus synodic periods.
http://climaterealists.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=350&sid=a537324a2269c0587656c7518de411d8#p7009
I should have followed the look back more though, and I would have got early January better. Check against CET or other temeperature series.
http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar
Good stuff – it is hard to argue with facts.
….Except, as we all know, for the most sophisticated CAGW proponents who are able to move smoothly from warming, to more snow, to global cooling, all caused by anthropogenic CO2, without batting an eyelid or exciting even the slightest critical thought from their ever attentive eco-journalists and politicians.
To convince such people an instigator for a strong counter belief is required, something along the lines of a statue with a permanent icicle, a snow drift in a cave somewhere that refuses to melt, or a talking polar bear complaining about the excessive cold and ice.
Deep solar minimum continues.
Although anecdotes prove nothing, they are nevertheless useful in the aggregate. I live at 8,000 feet at the base of the Snowy Range in Wyoming. I have two ponds of about 5 acres total. When I moved here 16 years ago, the ice cover on the ponds was half gone on the 10th of March. This year, half the ice cover was gone on April 15th, more than a month later. Ice reflects a lot more solar radiation than water.
But it is baby (single year) snow. Extent is not important it is volume that matters. It is weather wait till next year!
lol
Very cool in San Diego so far this year but I am sure all the “offical” data has us warmer than usual. I would instantly raise the BS flag, this has been the coolest spring in San Diego in the 20 years I have lived here. No snow except in mountains though.
Perhaps this is why Canada is showing sense: http://www.thegwpf.org/international-news/947-g20-climate-change-no-longer-a-priority.html
Tried yet again to post on tips and notes but as usual for me it wont work!!
Must be a way in that I can’t see.
[Reply: Sometimes changing the screen size will bring the heading into view. On a Mac it’s ⌘ and a + to expand the screen; a – to make it smaller. Maybe someone can give the PC commands. ~dbs]
Hey steve
Can you include a graph of northern hemisphere precipitation over the same period? The AGW proponent community’s newest line is that global warming will cause more precipitation events. A graph would be constructive to counter this argument.
It’s around five weeks until midsummer and the temperature here in Worcestershire, UK is having trouble making double digits. If it wasn’t for all those wise climatists telling me otherwise I would swear the world was getting colder. Still, they must know what they’re talking about, they use computers.
I live in a temperate part of Australia but have spent April/May in Europe/Canada/Alaska over years since the late 1970s. I don’t recall snow this late at lower latitudes until we were caught in a serious blizzard in Spain in April last year.
Here in Australia we had snow flurries 2 weeks ago coming across the Victorian high country, which was quite early for the onset of winter in Australia. All the trees had turned , as well, several weeks early according to our friends there. They say the leaves are turning at about the time they used to in the 1960s, and the colours are really bright as they remember from childhood.
This anecdotal stuff is never recorded by “climate scientists,” but they also never ask people who notice the movement of seasons.
…October through March period was the snowiest on record in the Northern Hemisphere – with an average monthly snow cover of 39,720,106 km2. Second place occurred in 1970 at 39,574,224 km2.
I remember the winter of 1970 very well. I was in basic training at Ft. Leonard Wood, Missouri, popularly known as “Little Korea” back then. The snow was a foot deep on the ground in January and February. We were out in it every day, marching in it, lying in it, camping outside in it, drilling, standing formation, etc. It seemed that I could never get warm, during those miserable 6 weeks. That summer, it snowed heavily on July 13th. at Ft. Carson, Colorado where I was stationed following Basic and AIT. The snow melted immediately as it hit the ground, but it snowed HARD for about half an hour. Being only 22 and coming from Kansas, I had never seen such a thing. The summer was very cool – with high temperatures rarely getting out of the mid ’80s in the Pikes Peak Region. At the end of that summer I became caught in a heavy blizzard in Pike Forest during a backpacking trip. The storm lasted for nearly 48 hours. If it hadn’t been for an abandoned cabin, I’d have been in serious trouble. That storm came right around the Autumnal equinox, and the same system killed a group of summer hikers up in the Cascades only a day before.
I’ve been following the postings here for some time, and it looks like similar conditions are developing. Today, May 13th., we’ve had light snow here in Colorado Springs. Anyone want to bet against a cool summer this year?
To Mailman,
The earth is a big place and you can have it both ways. The mid lattitudes got hammered this winter with cold and snow as this article points out but we were also in the midst of an El Nino in the tropics which is where most of the warmth was. The big difference was the artic oscillation which pushed more cold air from the poles to the mid-lattitudes where it met up with lots of warm moist air and got rung out as frozen precipitation. (I should know, I’m from Baltimore and we beat our old snow fall record by 50%.) The big question is what drove the artic oscillation this year to give us such a snowy year? Global circulation models certainly did not anticipate this.
@Mike D
‘CO2 has little or no effect on climate, but albedo does. Changes in albedo are what bring on Ice Age glaciations, and terminate them.’
So when everything was white, what then changed the “albedo” going from cold to warm, or vice versa. Because if everything comes down to albedo then it could have only been one albedo, the one that made everything too hot or too cold too boot. Imagine the snowball earth scenario, or the latest ice age, and if everything was up to albedo, how would it actually have become warmer?
If you believe it’s because of albedo, then which albedo effect?
And please try not to become a co2 believer. :p
As everyone in my small town can attest, I called the snowy winter long before it happened. I used the highest of scientific methods, too. Early last fall I slit open a few persimmon pits and saw that the seed was “spoon” shaped, thus I knew that we’d need the shovels come winter. Low and behold, I was right. It was so cold it chipped my concrete drive. It was so snowy I had to keep the Schipperke inside. Poor little bugger.
Of course watching the Sun in it’s doldrums for the previous few years helped with my forecast, but I kept that a secret. Folks round here think I’m a country genius; I see no need to baffle them with solar magnetism. Besides, persimmon pits often prove more reliable than the weatherman.
Y’all take care!