By Steve Goddard
View from NCAR’s roof this morning (NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research)
From the “climate models are not climate” department.
It was seven months ago today that the NCAR scientist sent out this infamous E-mail shown below:
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, “Philip D. Jones” <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
The Colorado Front Range is now entering it’s eighth month of winter. Yesterday I had to cancel soccer practice for the sixth time in six weeks due to winter weather. Here is what CU experts running climate models forecast two years ago.
DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes.
On the other side of the pond, The Guardian reports :
Snow and frost bring winter chill to May Snowfall, overnight temperatures of -1C
Confirming once again The Met Office Forecast from 10 years ago:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Not to mention this gem of modern science:
Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office
How did that prediction turn out?
Scotland records coldest winter. Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
Scotland’s ski resorts are enjoying one of their most successful seasons ever, with a big rise in visitor numbers and the best conditions in a generation.
Most of the US has been running well below normal temperatures since October 1.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
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“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.” – Albert Einstein
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
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Cris says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:46 am
Suits me fine. The global figure fits my solar forecast, those weak jets have been dumping some cold Polar air in some regions, do an animation from the 21st April;
http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/archive/jetstream_archive.html
The Arctic has warmed.
Trenberth: “Where’s the warming?”
Still searching for the bogeyman? In the real world, climate obviously doesn’t work the way Trenberth thinks it does. Unbelievable. And this guy gets paid a lot of our tax dollars to be so obviously wrong that a fifth grader could be more informed.
Study thermodynamics Kevin. Look for large thermal masses. Sheesh.
If Trenberth represents “science,” god help us. We might as well go back to primitive myths to explain climate.
Cris says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:46 am
To all those in the USA complaining of the cold weather, move north to the Canadian tundra. Temperatures there have been 5-8C above average, yesterday at Churchill (Hudsons Bay) it was 17C (average 3C).
Are you sure you’ve looking at the right Churchill? Also, Churchill is not on the tundra.
Cris says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:46 am
Also have a look from 7th January 2010, for 20 day animation:
http://squall.sfsu.edu/crws/archive/jetstream_archive.html
and relate to Arctic temperatures:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/times?plot=temps&alert=1
Diesel says:
May 13, 2010 at 7:08 am
Weather is not climate.
And by that logic, neither was Albert Einstein a member of the human race.
Over time, Einstein said a lot about man himself, being part of it.
By itself, weather (as a point in time) does not say a whole lot about climate.
Over a period time, however Weather has a lot to say about climate.
Which is why some have resorted to playing games with the data.
I prefer to call that game ‘Clouding the Observational Record’.
Einstein was an astute observer, and what some of us do here is to observe how the Judgement of Truth & Knowledge is
summarily dashed against the rocks, by the Weather itself.
rbateman
Climate exists only inside computer models. It is nature that doesn’t understand what it is supposed to be doing.
On the Departure from normal temperature graphic, I would like to know where the data is coming from for the norther portion of New York State, in particular the spot that is dark red or maroon. That is where I live and first of all there is no way we are anywhere near 5 degrees above normal temperatures. This has been an average to slightly below average winter/spring, and last fall was way below average. (I don’t keep weather records, I judge the temperature by how much wood I have to burn to keep my house warm. I am up a lot from last season.)
Secondly there is nothing there. Judging from what I can tell from the map the area that is darker red is mostly forest. Take it from me there is not a whole lot up here. Not that that would mean there shouldn’t be higher temperatures, just that I ‘ll bet the temperature data for that very large area is all coming from one station.
Ulric Lyons says:
May 13, 2010 at 6:03 am
“My forecast for April was warming spurts from the 1st, 8th and 17/18th, cooling towards the month end, with a return of rain, after a very dry month. The next uplift was forecasted to be from the 2nd week in May (moderate), and intesifying from the 17/18th, and again from around the 25th.”
Its looking good here: http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast