By Steve Goddard
View from NCAR’s roof this morning (NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research)
From the “climate models are not climate” department.
It was seven months ago today that the NCAR scientist sent out this infamous E-mail shown below:
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, “Philip D. Jones” <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
The Colorado Front Range is now entering it’s eighth month of winter. Yesterday I had to cancel soccer practice for the sixth time in six weeks due to winter weather. Here is what CU experts running climate models forecast two years ago.
DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes.
On the other side of the pond, The Guardian reports :
Snow and frost bring winter chill to May Snowfall, overnight temperatures of -1C
Confirming once again The Met Office Forecast from 10 years ago:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Not to mention this gem of modern science:
Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office
How did that prediction turn out?
Scotland records coldest winter. Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
Scotland’s ski resorts are enjoying one of their most successful seasons ever, with a big rise in visitor numbers and the best conditions in a generation.
Most of the US has been running well below normal temperatures since October 1.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.” – Albert Einstein
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
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Stephen Brown
I was at the beach in Christchurch during July, 2003. It was miserably cold, but about two days later the heatwave of 2003 hit. After two weeks of hot weather, it was declared to be a sure sign of runaway global warming.
The rules are – two weeks of warm weather is climate. But several years of cold weather is just weather. Anyone who doesn’t understand it is breathtakingly ignorant.
PSU-EMS-Alum said on May 12, 2010 at 3:04 pm:
I tracked that dot down before. Looks like Penn State’s Altoona campus. They offer a BA in Environmental Studies (click here, go for it, there’s a nice pic), thus lots of students betting their careers on solving global warming issues, with the university gladly selling them the vitally-needed education for a long and profitable career solving global warming issues.
Thus I suspect that hot spot is Mann-made warming, or at least Mann-related.
Tony B (another one);
A couple of weeks ago, another BBC propaganda effort had a “scientist” talking about human evolution, and how by the end of this century there will just be a few of us left, hanging on at the Poles, whilst the rest of the world fries.
The only climate change around here is that it is getting colder. Do these idiots have such contempt for the intelligence of normal people that they reckon they can keep on peddling their fantasies, and we won’t notice?>>
Just once I’d like to see the interviewer ask… “so, are you buying property in the far north of Canada as a hedge to protect the future of your family, your children and grandchildren? No? You’re just going to let them fry? Al Gore too, same thing, no interest in the good real estate? Wow, what martyrs all you warmascaramologists are.”
So in answer to your question… if no one notice that, then no one noticed much else.
“Johnny D says:
[…]The central points of the article — like conflating short-term weather and long-term climate? How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?”
Climatologists never make predictions, only projections. Predictions are verifiable so they avoid that.
John Egan
I just got back from Buffalo. Really enjoyed the Occidental hotel there on a Thursday night. Drove across the Big Horns in a snow storm. The snow really surprised me too. All of the Rockies seem to be getting lots of late snow. I hope some will be left when I return to them in September.
Right now I’m waiting for Steven Goddard to get around to some sea ice news. I want to see when the ice around the Bering Strait got so thinned out, with presumably lots of open water, that grey whale was able to swim from the North Pacific ocean, across the Arctic Ocean, and end up off the coast of Israel.
Personally I think it more likely it wound up just to the east of Africa and wandered up the Suez Canal, or went around the southern tip of Africa or even South America, than that it came down from the Arctic. But then I am not qualified to speculate on such oceanographic issues as this is blamed on global warming and I don’t have a doctorate in climatology.
(BTW I was telling my mother about the whale being there, and while she was drinking her coffee I told her “they blamed it on global warming.” She survived, just.)
Of course, this can also be readily blamed on aliens. They have a thing for whales (ref: Star Trek IV). 🙂
stevengoddard: You seem to want to talk about anything except for the topic of the article.
As I stated earlier, “The central points of the article — like conflating short-term weather and long-term climate? How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?” The Trenberth email you’re referring to is clearly around-the-water-cooler-style complaining about the weather (like we all engage in). Then you try to refute predicted changes in *long-term* (mid-century) snowfall in Scotland by saying that Scotland had a snowy 2010. That’s nonsense. Comparing long-term climate predictions to short-term weather is meaningless at best and misleading at worst.
And this from the above Guardian (May 12 2010) link:
Then there is this gem from the BBC in 2004
——–
12 May 2010 – Skegness managed an overnight temperature of -1C, snow flakes fluttered down on Tyneside
“travesty” is a good word to search for in the CRU emails. There are 10 associated emails that are worth rereading. There are only a month away from the release of the emails. I wonder if this exchange is what made someone decide to blow the whistle on the whole mess.
1255532032.txt
From: Michael Mann
To: Kevin Trenberth
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 2009 10:53:52 -0400
Cc: Tom Wigley, Stephen H Schneider, Myles Allen, peter stott , “Philip D. Jones”, Benjamin Santer, Thomas R Karl, Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer
thanks Kevin, yes, it’s a matter of what question one is asking. to argue that the observed global mean temperature anomalies of the past decade falsifies the model projections of global mean temperature change, as contrarians have been fond of claiming, is clearly wrong. but that doesn’t mean we can explain exactly what’s going on. there is always the danger of falling a bit into the “we don’t know everything, so we know nothing” fallacy. hence, I wanted to try to clarify where we all agree, and where there may be
disagreement,
mike
…
On Oct 14, 2009, at 10:17 AM, Kevin Trenberth wrote:
Hi Tom
How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!
Kevin
stevengoddard said on May 12, 2010 at 3:30 pm:
Weather is not climate unless weather is climate change.
Temperature anomaly outlooks, apart from the America`s, West Europe and East Asia, are positive. http://wxmaps.org/pix/clim.html
There are still a lot of incursions of polar air occurring due to weak polar vortex chilling some areas dramatically. Winter has gone for some places, but not for others.
My solar based forecast for this last winter was for very cold conditions at times, with heavy Northern Hemisphere snowfalls. It was based mostly on an astronomical look-back to the winter of 1830/1, 65400 days back to be precise. The cold winter was primarily due to lower solar wind speeds in Oct/Nov, Dec/early Jan and Feb: http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html
And current cold areas are due to the exchange of Subtropical with Polar air, hence the speed up in ice melt.
Hi Everyone,
don’t worry I’ve just figured it out. There must have been a brief moment in time recently when the whole world was asleep for just a nanosecond. In that brief amount of time there was a flip of some kind that meant that what we have always referred to as the Northern Hemisphere is now the Southern Hemisphere, and vice versa.
Reading about the climate change going on in many areas on your side of the equator the descriptions sound like the sort of climate that we here downunder should be experiencing, but aren’t. As an example New Zealand is being bombed by sub-tropical lows that are bringing humid, warm, moisture laden skies (and with it much needed rain to the top half of the country). The city of Whanganui just up the coast from me recorded a temp of 23 C yesterday as the national high. Not unheard of in May if one searches the archives hard enough but rare enough so that you can’t easily remember the last time.
It could just be the El Nino Modoki doing its’ thing of course. I’d like to think that we we’re heading into an exceptional southern summer, but I doubt it. My prediction from here is that we should see a sudden change to winter conditions at the end of June, a short harsh winter followed by mild conditions into spring. Having made that prediction based solely on this season being very similar to 2003, I expect the prediction to be obliterated by nature delivering a series of severe winter storms that linger long into the southern spring. This is known in the business as having a Bob (Dime) each way!
Cheers
Coops
‘I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?’
Nope, that cold went up and about and eventually landed in Europe, Russia, and Asia, gooosh, like, everyone knows that. What US got was just a cold weather snap. :p
Weather IS climate. The only difference is the time-scale. Days and weeks versus decades and centuries. There isn’t a distinction between them apart from the choice of the clock you care to use.
There was another damaging frost here in rural western Maryland on May 10th — 30F (-2C). The daytime high w/alot of sun was a mere 54F. There were several inches of snow in north-central Pennsylvania.
“Global warming” seems to have missed this area the last couple springs.
You could say less snow in 10 years which was predicted 10 years ago by someone at the CRU!!!
click
10 years ago we are past the point of no return with global warming
click
Enneagram says:
May 12, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Its more to do with weaker coronal holes than lack of sunspots. Solar minimums with lower sunspot counts, are more likely to above, than below normal temperatures. There are some milder winters on the way.
I think the craziest story this week is about “Wrong Way Willy”, the Pacific grey whale that popped up near Israel. The story claims the whale took advantage of the melt off of arctic ice and, against all odds, decided not to join his mates off Baja California as a winter-over spot, but to race across the northwest passage, hell bound for the Dardanelles, apparently.
The reporter evidently is unaware the arctic ice is at the greatest extent in a decade and has been for some time which one could reasonably presume would lead to Wrong Way Willy’s demise. On the other hand, if Willy and begun his trek and timed his passage in July/August, he’d have been in good company as much of the area is quite free of ice. Perhaps too, Willy just followed an ice breaker. OR! he went around the horn!
It seems a nature story without a nice AGW twist has no chance in the MSM.
I kinda like this new way of covering your arse. I’m going on a diet. I expect heavier as well as lighter weight in the coming months.
Yes. I do like this new way of thinking.
Squaw closed for the season last weekend but it was not for lack of snow. Lack of money was the reason … not enough business volume to justify continued operation in the short term. They could have stayed open until at least Memorial Day if not the 4th of July. More snow expected early next week.
The way mother nature loves irony, I’m starting to believe this whole Gaia thing.
Its interesting comparing gaps in global water vapour with -ve temperature anomaly areas http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
As noted above, many Colorado ski areas closed this year for lack of customers, not lack of snow. I skied a little over a week ago at Loveland and conditions were still, well, lovely.
Cap and trade will raise prices, hurt the economy and, so even fewer people will be able to afford to ski.
Boulder broke the record for snow on this date. Temperatures are dropping now 37F at my house at 9 PM MST, so snow tonight too is certainly a possibility. A few years ago, I would have most of my garden in by now but the past couple of years have been cooler than “normal.” You should see all of the dead tomato plants at Walmart and Home Depot.
Hey speaking of records, I have noticed that several low records set last year in Omaha do not seem to be showing in the books. I remember one very easily as July 17, since it happens to be both my mom’s and niece’s birthdays. I can still look back at the low temp on Accuweather as 2 degrees below the record low.
Jimmy Haigh says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:56 pm
I’m heading back to Scotland at the weekend for my annual visit. I usually go in May/June. For the last 4 years there has been fresh snow on the hills and a couple of times at low levels (below 1000ft).
Jimmy, we have had the coldest start to May in 15 years – and there was snow lying just outside Kenmore yesterday afternoon. Minus 6C on Monday night, somewhere further north, presumably Tulloch Bridge or Braemar. Winds due to turn to the south tomorrow so it may have warmed up a little by the time you get here. Brian’s stuck a nice pic of the new snow on the Glen Lyon hills on his site this morning – http://www.aberfeldyweather.com/
I think you had left school by the time I was at Breadalbane, but you may remember my brother, Jonathan, he used to play guitar with Haggis. Can meet up for a pint if you want to put a face to a name – if so ajp2222 AT gmail dot com.