By Steve Goddard
View from NCAR’s roof this morning (NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research)
From the “climate models are not climate” department.
It was seven months ago today that the NCAR scientist sent out this infamous E-mail shown below:
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider <shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Myles Allen <allen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, peter stott <peter.stott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, “Philip D. Jones” <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Santer <santer1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.Karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidt@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Hansen <jhansen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
The Colorado Front Range is now entering it’s eighth month of winter. Yesterday I had to cancel soccer practice for the sixth time in six weeks due to winter weather. Here is what CU experts running climate models forecast two years ago.
DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes.
On the other side of the pond, The Guardian reports :
Snow and frost bring winter chill to May Snowfall, overnight temperatures of -1C
Confirming once again The Met Office Forecast from 10 years ago:
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
Not to mention this gem of modern science:
Scottish ski industry could disappear due to global warming, warns Met Office
How did that prediction turn out?
Scotland records coldest winter. Scotland has suffered some of the coldest winter months in almost 100 years, the Met Office has confirmed.
Scotland’s ski resorts are enjoying one of their most successful seasons ever, with a big rise in visitor numbers and the best conditions in a generation.
Most of the US has been running well below normal temperatures since October 1.
http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/WaterTDeptUS.png
I wonder if the cold US temperatures might have anything to do with the very cold water in the North Pacific?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
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“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.” – Albert Einstein
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8492333.stm
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Meanwhile, some aren’t content with projecting temperatures a few decades hence. Apparently, there’s a paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by
researches from the University of New South Wales in Australia and Purdue University in the US looking up to 2300. The authors predict temperatures might have risen by at least 7 degC by then, making much of the world uninhabitable. One author, Professor Steven Sherwood, has said that “There’s something like a 50/50 chance of that over the long term”. Reported by the indefatigable Louise Grey of the Telegraph.
The heat always seems to find the least populated areas. The Allagash Waterway in northern Maine is a beautiful area and one of the least populated areas in the continental U.S.
Steven, feel for you pard!
We are just about 150 miles further south but it’s at least been tolerable here, usually chilly but snow & frosts has stayed 50 or so miles to the north. Mother nature isn’t equalizing as she should. Naughty, naughty! (or GISS, just possibly, could it be bad data you read from the other locations on this globe or maybe a bit too much of your extrapolation? We don’t want to give mother nature a bad rap, do we?)
vukcevic etc. says:
May 12, 2010 at 12:56 pm
It may or may not anything to do with the sun and the ‘microdots’ masquerading as sunspots.
If it is the sun, than there is a lot worse to come, as Livingstone & Penn are forecasting.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC14.htm
What else could it be? Though some clerics of the warming Gaia creed deny it. Time will tell….current paradigms (beliefs) will change but, surely, freeze.
Johnny D
This is four straight cold, snowy winters in Colorado. 2008 was the snowiest on record in Aspen and many other ski areas.
But no doubt in 40 years, some magical non-linear change will happen to the climate which will make all the snow disappear. You probably didn’t read the rest of Trenberth’s letter, because you were so excited by your brilliant discovery.
“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. “
Jeff L
I feel like I have been cycling into a 20MPH headwind continuously for the last two months.
Mauibrad,
Talk about a government out of touch. What are the most important concerns in America? Economy and jobs!
According to the latest Gallup poll, GW is not even on the list! Leave it to them to focus on a non-issue.
Easy there, Lance. I pointed it out because claiming the director of NCAR was part of the climategate emails is very different from saying it was a middle manager. And it was pretty glaring being right at the beginning of the post (unlike, say, the IPCC Himalayan glacier problem, on page 493 of the second of three huge volumes).
“From the early 1940s until the early 1970s, when NAO index exhibited a downward trend, European wintertime temperatures were frequently lower than normal. “
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/jhurrell/Docs/hurrell0895-science.pdf
Could this possibly mean that European wintertime temperatures from the early 2010s until the early 2040s may frequently become lower than normal?
I am starting to get used to the North Wind here in Norway, but come on, 30 years?
David S
Alarmists have trouble keeping their stories straight. When they aren’t talking about “peak oil” they are making calculations based on increasing use of oil for the next 300 years.
The only comment that ever comes to mind about “climate models” is an old axiom of computer programming, referred to as “garbage in, garbage out”. Data that is contaminated by a. poor observation, b.faulty equipment, and c. wishful thinking is a wonderful method for creating science fiction, but is poor science.
How does a snowy winter in 2010 disprove predictions of less snow in the 2050s?
What an amazingly biased, ignorant, unanswerable, and irrelevant question!
The question itself points to the lack of education and understanding of the questioner.
Steve Goddard,
8 months? When it starts crossing 11 months….you know whats up with that!
@The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley,
I’m in Selsey, West Sussex which is well known for its balmy micro-climate as it is sheltered by the Isle of Wight from any Atlantic sourced stormy blasts. This morning (12 May 2010) we had a very hard frost, sufficiently cold to precipitate out the waxes in the ultra-poor but very expensive diesel sold by our local fuel stations. My Mercedes and my Renault (both diesel) would not start this morning. My petrol powered Vauxhall fired up without any problems. At about 1:00pm, both diesel cars started without any problems, once the ambient temperature had risen.
My vegetable garden is in ruins. Even the potato plants have been savaged by the cold.
I wonder what warming the Zealots are actually talking about?
pgosselin says:
May 12, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Both problems could be solved in one year or two, but it’s gonna be hard and very, very painful.
Any economist has the formula, but who dares to apply it! The longer you take to decide the move to face reality, the harder it will be.
But, as when kids: “Just close your eyes and swallow it!”
the science is irrelevant!
Website of John Kerry: THE AMERICAN POWER ACT:
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING
Lt. General John G. Castellaw US Army, Retired:
“This isn’t an environmental issue, this is a security issue. Our strategic interests, and therefore our national security and the safety of Americans, are threatened by climate change and our continuing dependence on oil. Military leaders know this isn’t about polar bears and ice caps, it’s about international stability and national security.”
also:
General Electric:
“The ‘American Power Act’ represents an important step toward a strong national energy policy, and GE applauds Senators Kerry and Lieberman for their leadership on an issue that is critical to the future of our nation and our economy…
Firelake Capital Management LLC.:
“Comprehensive energy and climate policy that includes a clear market based price signal for carbon that rewards innovation is key for companies across the country to accelerate our transition to a sustainable clean energy infrastructure and market. ..
Rob Sisson, President, Republicans for Environmental Protection:
“We cannot afford further delay in adopting a national policy that addresses our many energy-related challenges. We call on members of Congress to work together constructively across the aisle to pass this prudent and carefully balanced legislation this year. There have been few instances in our nation’s history when legislators have the opportunity to leave a lasting legacy– to have the appendage ’statesman’ added to their names by appreciative future generations. This is one of those rare occasions.”
Exelon:
“Exelon commends Senators Kerry and Lieberman for their leadership in crafting federal climate legislation to address the nation’s energy security, jobs and environmental goals. We are pleased that the draft bill announced today by Senators Kerry and Lieberman proposes a system for putting a price on carbon, which will use market forces to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the lowest possible cost, as well as a firm price collar to protect consumers. As the nation’s largest nuclear operator, Exelon also appreciates that the senators have recognized nuclear power as a low-emission source of baseload electricity with an important role to play in the country’s transition to a low-carbon economy.”
Jeff Immelt Chairman and CEO, General Electric:
“National policy – including an effective price on carbon and a strong, nationwide clean energy standard – is needed to drive increased investment, which in turn creates new technologies and jobs.”
Nuclear Energy Institute:
“The nuclear-related provisions of this legislation provide a solid platform for the expansion of nuclear energy to meet our electricity needs, create thousands of jobs and help achieve the desired reductions of greenhouse gas emissions…
Jonathan Murray, Operation Free Campaign Director and former US Marine:
Taking a strong stance on carbon pollution could deprive Iran, one of the world’s most aggressive and unpredictable nations, of up to $100 million a day. Given their record of hostility to us and our allies, we can’t afford to allow them even one more dime.”
Major General Paul Monroe US Army, Retired:
“We make a profound strategic error if we underestimate the impact that climate has on regional and international stability. Some of our most worrisome trouble spots around the world are dangerous because of a combination of climate problems and social unrest – Somalia, Nigeria, and Yemen are strong examples. Congress must pass this legislation to make the world a safer place.”
Shell Oil:
“Shell commends Senators Kerry and Lieberman for introducing an energy and climate bill designed to strengthen our economy, create jobs and enhance our energy security while reducing greenhouse gas emissions ..
http://kerry.senate.gov/americanpoweract/pdf/APAwhattheyaresaying.pdf
also includes: Statement from Alliance for Climate Protection, Audubon, Center for American Progress Action Fund, Climate Solutions, Defenders of Wildlife, ENE (Environment Northeast), Environment America, Environmental Defense Fund, Environmental Law and Policy Center, Fresh Energy, Green For All, League of Conservation Voters, National Tribal Environmental Council, National Wildlife Federation, Natural Resources Defense Council, Oxfam America, Sierra Club, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy, The Wilderness Society, Union of Concerned Scientists, World Wildlife Fund
“Today’s action by Senators John Kerry (Mass.) and Joe Lieberman (Conn.) jumpstarts the Senate debate over America’s energy future. Their unwavering leadership has been critical to the progress made thus far. Every day the Senate fails to pass comprehensive clean energy and climate legislation we put our economy, our national security and our environment at greater risk. Inaction is too costly, and the challenge is too urgent. The Gulf Coast oil catastrophe is yet another reminder that the United States must reduce its dependence on oil to protect our security, economy and environment. The millions of Americans we represent demand a Senate vote on comprehensive clean energy and climate legislation. President Obama and leaders of both parties in Congress must provide the leadership necessary to develop a clean energy and climate solution that becomes law this year.”
Johnny D
Trenberth isn’t “implicated” in anything. His e-mail is an honest discussion of the fact that the climate models don’t accurately represent the current climate. The word he used to describe the disparity is “travesty.”
Steven, maybe it will warm you up just to see what the sun was up to years back in the actual warm years when February felt like spring: http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/Sunspot_activity_hits_1,000-year_high.html?cid=3990930
pgosselin says:
May 12, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Mauibrad,
Talk about a government out of touch. What are the most important concerns in America? Economy and jobs!
According to the latest Gallup poll, GW is not even on the list! Leave it to them to focus on a non-issue.
—————
Reply: But to them, it IS the issue, just like health care was a non-issue to everybody except the administration. They didn’t enact health care for us, they enacted it for THEM (because it wasn’t about health care in the first place)! They aren’t enacting Cap & Trade for us, they are going to enact it for THEM! (again, because it isn’t about the environment at all).
Folks had better wake up and vote for if they don’t, they will no longer be able to vote with their feet; there will be nowhere else to go.
That “hot dot” in south-central PA is spurious. It is an obvious artifact on visible on pretty much every temp map on those HPRCC maps.
Quotation marks should be reserved for people’s actual words. I never used the word “implicated”; you’re refuting a point I didn’t even make.
It seems you have your head buried in the show.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
Johnny D
So what is your point? Trenberth said that no one can explain the “lack of warming.”
You seem to want to talk about anything except for the topic of the article.
Mike
The slope the GISS graph is 0.65C/century. Scary, scary stuff.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/oimg?key=0AnKz9p_7fMvBdEhPYkw3LUViOHBvOERSSUF3ZjJwcVE&oid=2&zx=5bzt70-oy3rcf
Like a couple of other posters above, I too am in Southern England.
After may years of seeing my Cherry tree blossom around Easter, and then lose it all within a week (usually due to high winds) this year the blossom is much later and has hung around (hardly any windy days recently). Most of the deciduous trees seem much later getting their leaves, in fact some still seem short of the full complement.
After 4 lousy summers, my grass is looking appalling, and set to get worse.
I am wearing winter clothes when I take my dog for walks, and my wife is bringing in the potplants to avoid the frost. In May.
This is going to be another UK Year Without a Summer.
How many of these do we have to get, before the warming fantasists are finally laughed out of town. Even today, we had to suffer the awful Roger Harbinger (of doom) on the BBC coverage of the new government appointments. Gleefully (well, as close as a Harbinger of Doom can get to being gleeful) stating that the LibDems will be delighted that Chris Huehne will be tackling climate change.
A couple of weeks ago, another BBC propaganda effort had a “scientist” talking about human evolution, and how by the end of this century there will just be a few of us left, hanging on at the Poles, whilst the rest of the world fries.
The only climate change around here is that it is getting colder. Do these idiots have such contempt for the intelligence of normal people that they reckon they can keep on peddling their fantasies, and we won’t notice?