Guest post by Steven Goddard
Photo Credit : BBC News
Last April, I wrote an article titled Global Warming and “The Early Spring” which highlighted one of the favorite AGW myths, that CO2 is making winter warmer and spring arrive earlier. Here is the 2010 UK update.
In 2005, the BBC wrote this article :
Wildlife winces at early spring. A survey involving 65,000 wildlife sightings suggests that frogs and bumblebees are among the hardest hit. “Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.
Here is one from Global Change Biology :
Early spring in Europe matches recent climate warming August 25, 2006 Conclusive proof that spring is arriving earlier across Europe than it did 30 years ago is published today in the journal Global Change Biology.
Real Climate wrote about it last year :
Breaking the silence about Spring. Early Spring has the potential to be immensely influential, a real turning point in the popular appreciation of climate change impacts among laypersons and scientists alike. Read it.
England – Earlier first flowering date. One of the most comprehensive studies of plant species in Britain revealed that the average first flowering date of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades: 16% of species flowered significantly earlier in the 1990s than previously, with an average advancement of 15 days in a decade. These data reveal the strongest biological signal yet of climatic change. Flowering is especially sensitive to the temperature in the previous month, and spring-flowering species are most responsive (Fitter and Fitter, 2002).
From The Daily Mail
Riot of colour: As spring comes earlier and earlier each year, such species as hawthorn and hornbeam will cut off more and more light to the bluebell which will cause it to decline disastrously
* So how is that warm winter/early spring theory doing in 2010?
From The Guardian
Severe winter delays bluebell season National Trust predicts three-week wait for nature’s blue carpets
Usually from about now they spring up in the far south-west then spread like a Mexican wave across Britain. But the National Trust says today that nature-lovers could have to wait until the end of the month before carpets of English bluebells begin to appear in woodlands. The charity believes that after the coldest winter for more than 30 years the English bluebell season is likely to be up to three weeks late. The plants depend on warm ground temperatures and the prolonged frosts will have impacted upon their ability to grow.
From The Guardian
Small is fatal for our songbirds in Britain’s great winter freeze. A survey by the public in Britain’s gardens reveals the toll on wildlife caused by weeks of Arctic conditions
Few people may have been wanting more evidence of the ferocity of recent weather. Nevertheless they got one from an unexpected source last week: the Big Garden Birdwatch. Organised by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), it involved members of the public reporting bird sightings in their gardens over the last weekend in January. More than half a million responses were received and a count showed precisely how this year’s winter – the coldest in 30 years – has taken a toll of the nation’s small songbirds, such as the goldcrest and the coal tit.
From The Guardian
Spring about to ‘explode’ in Britain, conservationists say Experts believe release of pent-up energy after such a long, hard winter could produce the most spectacular spring in years
From The BBC
Why is it going to be a stunning spring? I’s been the longest and coldest winter in years, but the pay-off will be a spectacular spring, conservationists say
Conclusion : An early spring is climate, but apparently a late spring is just weather. When can we expect retractions from The Guardian, BBC and Real Climate?
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Xi Chin (05:34:57) :
“I like this website for its content, but some of the articles are written in a very poor way. Why not raise the standatd a bit? ” …”I mean grammer (sic) and suggestions”
Funny. Hmmm – Would that include spelling as well ?
; )
@ur momisugly Tom W (06:47:44) :
Oh really? And how about the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere which in 2009 was the hottest since the late 1800’s. I could play this silly game all day but since it’s a complete waste of time. I won’t.”
The Southern Hemisphere is mostly water, not land. And we’ve been in an El Nino since July–the oceans are giving off heat.
We did get an early Spring here in Western Washington. The opposite of last year, when locals were lamenting the late Tulip blooms due to extended cold.
There is no global anything going on. Warm and cool spots just get pushed around the planet by winds and oceans, like they always have. Sometimes those warm and cool spots are centered over areas where there are lots of thermometers and people go nuts.
It’s just so incredibly silly.
Tom W (07:05:45) :
The winter of 2008-2009 was extremely cold in the UK. I wrote several articles about that last year. Perhaps you should read them, rather than drawing conclusions from one sentence you misquoted out of context?
Tom W (06:47:44) :
Oh really? And how about the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere which in 2009 was the hottest since the late 1800’s.
Oh, really? And your basis for claiming we knew the temperature over the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere back before there were weather satellites is…?
I could play this silly game all day but since it’s a complete waste of time. I won’t.
Promises, promises.
Tom W (07:05:45) :
I hadn’t noticed but Steve used the FORECASTS not the actual data. A very weird thing to do indeed.
AGW’s basic premise — that we’re heading for runaway heating — is *based* on forecasts.
Thanks Tom for being a superb mind reader!!
Read these:
http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/09/why-i-am-an-anthropogenic-global-warming-sceptic-michael-hammer/
http://borepatch.blogspot.com/2009/12/should-you-be-global-warming-skeptic.html
http://borepatch.blogspot.com/2009/09/14-reasons-why-anthropogenic-global.html
http://www.populartechnology.net/2009/10/peer-reviewed-papers-supporting.html
Let’s not be surprised at the BBC, everyone. It’s sad, but true – the BBC’s newsgathering and current affairs departments have lost credibility with millions of people. The tradition of journalistic enquiry has long vanished from its national output, except where they can be seen to be supporting the consumer or unmasking some low-life. What this once proud organisation will not do is court controversy, If we had waited for the BBC to blow the whistle on the UK MPs instead of the Daily Telegraph newspaper, we would still be waiting.
Ever since the Andrew Gilligan affair they have toed the establishment line and dare not say boo to any Government goose. Enquiry into AGW issues are, in particular, a big ‘No-no’. Even the Today programme, once vaunted current affairs showpiece of the Beeb, nods its head like an obedient lapdog at any AGW proponent and hardly ever allows anyone from ‘the other side’ to have their say. Most disappointingly, no one is tackling the science. They have so-called environmental correspondents who give earnest pieces to camera which just parrot the establishment line.
Don’t expect to be invited by the BBC to take part in any prime time discussion on AGW, Anthony – they would run a mile!
Sorry Steve you wouldn’t make a good global warming alarmist, you just don’t get that sun and snow are proof of global warming, just like a man made camp fire is proof the whole forest is about to burn down, well thats what the forest scientist/warden told me as he also reminded me that i had to pay him all my money to look after said forest (smelling of firer starter fluid).
mike roddy (07:35:00) :
Game over?? Thanks for the laugh.
Here are the official dates of the appearance of cherry blossom blooms in Washington D.C. They average about one day later than when they started keeping records 20 years ago.
https://spreadsheets.google.com/oimg?key=0AnKz9p_7fMvBdEpxMk4yV05XaXd6cDZ0UDE5WnRRN3c&oid=1&v=1270568045088
http://www.nationalcherryblossomfestival.org/cms/index.php?id=404
Anyone who goes camping on May long weekend will tell you it gets colder every year. I’m still waiting for a nice weekend like the one i had 10 years ago.
Late arrival of Spring is more global than I might have presented Tom. Still, we are all going boil in our own man-made co2 juices!!!!
Minnesota
http://www.fatboydanfishing.com/showthread.php?p=831
Washington
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011526436_apwaspringweather.html
Ukraine
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:LKI.L&display=discussion&id=6106831&action=detail
Beijing
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/culture/2010-04/06/c_13239143.htm
*******************
Going OT now we can take a look back to Florida.
““In Florida, evening and early morning temperatures dipped below freezing over the course of about 10 days during Jan. 2-13, with the coldest readings since December 1989 recorded on Jan 11. Consecutive daily record lows were recorded across the state and as far south as Miami on Jan 10-11.””
http://southeastfarmpress.com/vegetables-tobacco/florida-vegetables-0406/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8592408.stm
Pamela Gray: Exactly, Pamela. Have you noticed the Local Paper and it’s fixation
on El Nino? Warm weather-nice open winter(I know it’s all relative for NE Oregon)
Cold snowy, late March/early April snow pack catches up to near normal-El Nino. Can’t wait for next year-Got Snow?…
Bill Tuttle (08:05:05) : “AGW’s basic premise — that we’re heading for runaway heating — is *based* on forecasts.”
7 day weather forecasts? Nope.
So, there won’t be any more bluebells to contrast the red politicians. What a pity!
I would have expected a more complete statistical analysis that spring is not on average starting earlier. Many of the statements you cite (not all) are based on statistical studies over long time periods which are not refuted by one data point.
AndrewP (09:49:01) :
If we do the right statistics, perhaps we can force the Bluebells to bloom retroactively?
And the cherry blossoms
https://spreadsheets.google.com/oimg?key=0AnKz9p_7fMvBdEpxMk4yV05XaXd6cDZ0UDE5WnRRN3c&oid=1&v=1270568045088
“Oh, really? And your basis for claiming we knew the temperature over the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere back before there were weather satellites is…?”
Just as it is not necessary to poll an entire country to get a fairly accurate estimate of voters intensions, it is also not necessary to know the temperature over an entire hemisphere to get a good estimate of the hemispheric temperature. This of course involves being careful…cherry pickers need not apply.
Spring has been getting progressively later in the UK for the last few years. It’s also been getting more colourful.
I have two ponds in my garden, a large one for koi and a smaller, shallower one for frogs and other pond loving creatures. This year I have more frog spawn in the small pond than I’ve ever seen. I guess frogs know how to pass a cold winter.
The dawn chorus is the noisiest I’ve heard in several years and I’ve seen no shortage of small birds. But then, people tend to ensure that birds have food and water throughout harsh winters. I keep the air pumps running so that water is available through the winter even if the filter pumps freeze up.
The snowdrops and crocuses were spectacular this year and the daffodils, open for more than a week now, are equally as breathtaking. My blossom trees are laden with buds and my camelias and magnolias are about to burst into flower. With the seasons sliding back “into place” after the recent decades of warming, the plants are getting a good rest over the winter and it’s noticeable. My rose bushes, so used to flowering almost the year through, are showing robust growth after the harsh winter stopped growth, None of those weedy, exhausted shoots of recent milder years.
Of course, I must mention that the butterflies and bees in the UK were in great profusion last summer. I think the message of Mama Nature is loud and clear. Shame the alarmists, who profess to worship her, wear industrial strength earplugs…
All I can say, is that at the beginning of November last year, I started splitting logs for our wood burner. This weekend, Easter, and the first weekend in April, I’m still splitting logs! Last Easter, I was relaxing with a beer in the garden!
Tom W (09:35:07) :
If you keep posting enough, perhaps you can change the fact that winter 2008-2009 was a long, cold winter in the UK.
Another reminder … If it does trend warmer for several decades, and even if we gained 2 degrees… someone explain to me again why this is a bad thing?
We just had a mild winter and warm summer here in the last year in the northwest. It was FANTASTIC!
Ice “melt” won’t be that dramatic. Seasons will be longer, with crops more bountiful. We know now that storms won’t be much different. We would need to adapt, manage water resources carefully. Polar bears will sunbathe. Where’s the crisis again?
I also recall Indur golanky’s report showing almost 20% greater mortality in winter than summer.
All AGW alarmism attempts to paint some dark outcome of a warmer earth.
To be sure, there would be winners and losers. But all alarmist references are negative, when in fact, a little warmer is better for (nearly) all living things.
vjones (03:42:02) :
There is a weather saying in Britain “Cast ne’er a clout ’til May is out” that is commonly taken to mean “Don’t shed any Winter clothing until the end of May”, but I recently heard another, perhaps wiser, meaning.
Hawthorn is also called the May Tree (as in “Queen of the May) so an entreaty that you cannot be sure of warm weather until the May tree is blossoming makes more sense. Love that weather lore.
Weather lore is rather interesting. Here’s another one:
‘Ash before oak – in for a soak; oak before ash – in for a splash’.
This refers to the appearance of the trees’ flowers, and is used as forecast regarding the coming summer weather.
Last spring, it was ash before oak, and July was the wettest in Wales for 40 years. (I wish I’d remembered that before falling for the MetOffice’s ‘Barbeque Summer’ and getting a new summer dress …).
In the last few days, the first flowers have opened on the ash trees, while the oaks still look as if its the depth of winter. (Better get some new waterproofs, methinks …)
Are there similar weather lore sayings for the USA, and what are they?
Steve Goddard (07:56:01) :
Tom W (07:05:45) :
The winter of 2008-2009 was extremely cold in the UK. I wrote several articles about that last year.
I haven’t denied that.
Perhaps you should read them
If the issue were the local UK climate I would. It’s about global warming however and since you seem intent on cherry-picking I won’t.
rather than drawing conclusions from one sentence you misquoted out of context?
My 07:05:45 post didn’t quote you, so I have no idea what you are on about.