Guest post by Steven Goddard
Photo Credit : BBC News
Last April, I wrote an article titled Global Warming and “The Early Spring” which highlighted one of the favorite AGW myths, that CO2 is making winter warmer and spring arrive earlier. Here is the 2010 UK update.
In 2005, the BBC wrote this article :
Wildlife winces at early spring. A survey involving 65,000 wildlife sightings suggests that frogs and bumblebees are among the hardest hit. “Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.
Here is one from Global Change Biology :
Early spring in Europe matches recent climate warming August 25, 2006 Conclusive proof that spring is arriving earlier across Europe than it did 30 years ago is published today in the journal Global Change Biology.
Real Climate wrote about it last year :
Breaking the silence about Spring. Early Spring has the potential to be immensely influential, a real turning point in the popular appreciation of climate change impacts among laypersons and scientists alike. Read it.
England – Earlier first flowering date. One of the most comprehensive studies of plant species in Britain revealed that the average first flowering date of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades: 16% of species flowered significantly earlier in the 1990s than previously, with an average advancement of 15 days in a decade. These data reveal the strongest biological signal yet of climatic change. Flowering is especially sensitive to the temperature in the previous month, and spring-flowering species are most responsive (Fitter and Fitter, 2002).
From The Daily Mail
Riot of colour: As spring comes earlier and earlier each year, such species as hawthorn and hornbeam will cut off more and more light to the bluebell which will cause it to decline disastrously
* So how is that warm winter/early spring theory doing in 2010?
From The Guardian
Severe winter delays bluebell season National Trust predicts three-week wait for nature’s blue carpets
Usually from about now they spring up in the far south-west then spread like a Mexican wave across Britain. But the National Trust says today that nature-lovers could have to wait until the end of the month before carpets of English bluebells begin to appear in woodlands. The charity believes that after the coldest winter for more than 30 years the English bluebell season is likely to be up to three weeks late. The plants depend on warm ground temperatures and the prolonged frosts will have impacted upon their ability to grow.
From The Guardian
Small is fatal for our songbirds in Britain’s great winter freeze. A survey by the public in Britain’s gardens reveals the toll on wildlife caused by weeks of Arctic conditions
Few people may have been wanting more evidence of the ferocity of recent weather. Nevertheless they got one from an unexpected source last week: the Big Garden Birdwatch. Organised by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), it involved members of the public reporting bird sightings in their gardens over the last weekend in January. More than half a million responses were received and a count showed precisely how this year’s winter – the coldest in 30 years – has taken a toll of the nation’s small songbirds, such as the goldcrest and the coal tit.
From The Guardian
Spring about to ‘explode’ in Britain, conservationists say Experts believe release of pent-up energy after such a long, hard winter could produce the most spectacular spring in years
From The BBC
Why is it going to be a stunning spring? I’s been the longest and coldest winter in years, but the pay-off will be a spectacular spring, conservationists say
Conclusion : An early spring is climate, but apparently a late spring is just weather. When can we expect retractions from The Guardian, BBC and Real Climate?
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Both global warming and global cooling will be a local and regional thing (we are not a smooth round ball folks). Evidence will not be global for either case. It is entirely appropriate to use climate zone and micro-climate zone data to follow climate change. The trick is in what you attribute it to. Natural causes should be the gold standard by which any other forcing is compared to.
Tom W (00:45:13) :
Easter snow, 2008
Sleet, snow and storms yesterday made it one of the most miserable Easter weekends in years – with more bad weather to come.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/23/weather
October snow 2008
Parts of south-east England had more than an inch of snow last night while London experienced its first October snowfall in more than 70 years as winter conditions arrived early.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/oct/29/weather-london
2008-2009 Winter
Coldest winter in UK for 13 years
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7921230.stm
2009-2010 winter
Britain facing one of the coldest winters in 100 years
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6921281/Britain-facing-one-of-the-coldest-winters-in-100-years-experts-predict.html
That is a beautiful picture of snow covered fields at the top of the post. Such a shame that will be a thing of the past so very soon…
I vote for a late spring. I suffer from oak pollen alligeries and the longer the winter the longer I’m allegery free. Then there is rageweed season if the summer is longer the ragweed season is longer. I’m ready for cooler temps.
Posted by Tom W;
By Brian K. Sullivan
April 5 (Bloomberg) — New York City may flirt with record warmth tomorrow as temperatures remain about 20 degrees above normal until late this week, the National Weather Service said.
The record still stands and it was from the 20’s. The weather is all over the map as per usual. That mitigates against AGW claims.
Along the Front Range, Spring seems to be running at least four weeks late – as we are just starting to see the first Crocus buds. Some years we get them in February.
No warming seen in March temperatures in the Northern US for at least 30 years.
http://docs.google.com/View?id=ddw82wws_536gpg969kw
Tom W (05:06:12) :
Jimbo (04:29:27) : More signs of global warming!
Apparently Jimbo thinks
the UK = the globe.
I expect those who know it occupies less than 1/10th of 1 % of the surface of the Earth may find that difficult to swallow.
————————-
Reply:
Oh really? And how about Russia and Siberia in the post just prior to yours? Do they also constitute a mere fraction of the earth’s surface?
Your denial is beyond that famous river in Africa.
For Tom W:
““Last April, I wrote an article titled Global Warming and “The Early Spring” which highlighted one of the favorite AGW myths, that CO2 is making winter warmer and spring arrive earlier.”
The piece that tried to make inferences about Global Warming from 7 days of May 2009 data from ’selected’ areas representing less than 5% of the Earth’s surface? ”
Tom, if the article was written last April (which would have been April of 2009) how is it possible that the article would have used data from 7 days of MAY 2009? That would have been an interesting trick indeed!
It’s about this time of the year this Texan starts paying attention to the Alaskan
http://www.nenanaakiceclassic.com
where they had a “very mild winter, with temperates only reaching -40 degrees for 2 days and average temperatures for the rest of the winter ranging between 45 degrees and -35 degrees.”
Ticket sales for their contest ended April 5th, a contest to predict when exactly the ice will break at a particular railroad bridge. The contest began in 1917.
(They must be redoing the website, as parts of it seem to give me a 404 error)
RockyRoad : “Oh really? And how about Russia and Siberia in the post just prior to yours? Do they also constitute a mere fraction of the earth’s surface?”
Oh really? And how about the ENTIRE Southern Hemisphere which in 2009 was the hottest since the late 1800’s. I could play this silly game all day but since it’s a complete waste of time. I won’t.
The bipolar bears can’t decide if they like hot or cold.
I am tired of this record setting long cold and wet winter.
PeterB in Indainapolis (06:33:10): Tom, if the article was written last April (which would have been April of 2009) how is it possible that the article would have used data from 7 days of MAY 2009? That would have been an interesting trick indeed!
Actually the article was written on April 5, 2009 and the data was was from April 6 – April 12, 2009. How you say? I hadn’t noticed but Steve used the FORECASTS not the actual data. A very weird thing to do indeed.
The UK is only a tiny portion of the Northern Hemisphere but as I look out of my study window there are no leaves on the London planes and silver birches. The buds look as if they might open next week if the warmer weather that started today continues. In Richmond Park none of the 1,000 or so oaks and other majestic trees are yet in leaf no matter that on some reckonings we are already nearly six weeks into spring.
Less than a week ago parts of Cumberland suffered a snowstorm of more than 18 inches and the “unseasonal” snow in Southern Scotland resulted in at least one death.
However we have been reassured that this year we really will have a “barbecue summer”. Perhaps we will and perhaps we won’t because the weather still does not understand that it must behave as climate models say it should.
Steve Goddard (06:30:19) : No warming seen in March temperatures in the Northern US for at least 30 years.
Which suggests that it no longer true if you consider the entire US, otherwise you can be sure Steve would be hyping it.
England was cold this winter, all right, but posting data from a single island is meaningless.
Timing of the onset of spring only means something on a global scale. If this task hasn’t been taken on, I’ll look around a bit myself. All of the studies that I have seen demonstrate substantially earlier spring arrival in the last 20 years, especially in the Arctic.
I look forward to your posting the global data after I find it.
Justa Joe (06:22:24) :”The record still stands and it was from the 20’s. The weather is all over the map as per usual. That mitigates against AGW claims.”
Interesting given that you posted that before the afternoon of the day it was suppose to ‘flirt with the record’, i.e. today.
Tom W (07:05:45) :
All of your hot air is not going to speed up the arrival of Spring.
OT, RockyRoad you wrote on another thread that Equatorial temps rise by 5 degrees Celsius during Ice Age conditions. Would it be possible to provide links or any more information about that?
Back on topic, the pessimistic navel-gazing of modern climate-watchers is a wonder to behold. The Catlin crew learned a thing or two about “early spring” last year.
Steve Goddard (06:15:55) :
Cherry-pick, cherry pick, cherry-pick
Sorry Steve I have a bad back and am losing interest in cherry picking.
To give you an idea of the standards held dear by the UK’s media, the Daily Telegraph in an article on this very subject earlier this year, suggested that lambs were being born earlier in the spring due to AGW.
The farmers amongst you may be able to spot the ‘deliberate’ mistake in that one.
The worst part of the entire early spring or any other observation is that it provides nothing in the way of a link to CO2 emissions.
Yet the global directive from warmers is that we must believe there is a link.
There only evidence is their theoretical climate modeling which they inflate with rhetoric about there not being any other explanation.
Borenstein, Seth, AP reporter: “Global Warming Hastens Arrival of Early Springtime”, March 19 2008. Borenstein quotes several scientists.
Root, Terry: “Human Modified Signatures Induce Species Changes: Joint Attribution”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2008. Early spring, including data about blooming, bird migrations, etc.
I also recommend that WUWT readers go outside and ask the older residents of their neighborhood if spring is arriving earlier than when they were children.
Game over. Let’s move on.
REPLY: “Game over. Let’s move on.” Mike, despite your self image of moral superiority, you don’t run this blog, thus we’ll continue this discussion. – Anthony
“pwl (01:39:34) :
““Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.”
I hate to inform Bill Oddie but there’s really nothing of anything a million miles away other than the empty cold vacuum of space ”
That empty cold vacuum had also established itself in Bill Oddie’s head – even the BBC was forced to drop him for his excruciatingly vacuous, emetic, anthropomorphic TV utterances last year. Even his fellow presenters were embarrassed – no mean feat considering their bunny hugging green credentials and demonstrable loss of a grip on reality.
Unfortunately a high proportion of my countrymen are said to have enjoyed the programme and even more unfortunately will be allowed to vote on May 6th……..
Mean while, here on the Scottish Solway we have our heating on, despite my wife’s Aberdeenshire origins!
Spring, or as Al Gore calls it, Proof of Global Warming…