Guest post by Steven Goddard
Photo Credit : BBC News
Last April, I wrote an article titled Global Warming and “The Early Spring” which highlighted one of the favorite AGW myths, that CO2 is making winter warmer and spring arrive earlier. Here is the 2010 UK update.
In 2005, the BBC wrote this article :
Wildlife winces at early spring. A survey involving 65,000 wildlife sightings suggests that frogs and bumblebees are among the hardest hit. “Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.
Here is one from Global Change Biology :
Early spring in Europe matches recent climate warming August 25, 2006 Conclusive proof that spring is arriving earlier across Europe than it did 30 years ago is published today in the journal Global Change Biology.
Real Climate wrote about it last year :
Breaking the silence about Spring. Early Spring has the potential to be immensely influential, a real turning point in the popular appreciation of climate change impacts among laypersons and scientists alike. Read it.
England – Earlier first flowering date. One of the most comprehensive studies of plant species in Britain revealed that the average first flowering date of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades: 16% of species flowered significantly earlier in the 1990s than previously, with an average advancement of 15 days in a decade. These data reveal the strongest biological signal yet of climatic change. Flowering is especially sensitive to the temperature in the previous month, and spring-flowering species are most responsive (Fitter and Fitter, 2002).
From The Daily Mail
Riot of colour: As spring comes earlier and earlier each year, such species as hawthorn and hornbeam will cut off more and more light to the bluebell which will cause it to decline disastrously
* So how is that warm winter/early spring theory doing in 2010?
From The Guardian
Severe winter delays bluebell season National Trust predicts three-week wait for nature’s blue carpets
Usually from about now they spring up in the far south-west then spread like a Mexican wave across Britain. But the National Trust says today that nature-lovers could have to wait until the end of the month before carpets of English bluebells begin to appear in woodlands. The charity believes that after the coldest winter for more than 30 years the English bluebell season is likely to be up to three weeks late. The plants depend on warm ground temperatures and the prolonged frosts will have impacted upon their ability to grow.
From The Guardian
Small is fatal for our songbirds in Britain’s great winter freeze. A survey by the public in Britain’s gardens reveals the toll on wildlife caused by weeks of Arctic conditions
Few people may have been wanting more evidence of the ferocity of recent weather. Nevertheless they got one from an unexpected source last week: the Big Garden Birdwatch. Organised by the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), it involved members of the public reporting bird sightings in their gardens over the last weekend in January. More than half a million responses were received and a count showed precisely how this year’s winter – the coldest in 30 years – has taken a toll of the nation’s small songbirds, such as the goldcrest and the coal tit.
From The Guardian
Spring about to ‘explode’ in Britain, conservationists say Experts believe release of pent-up energy after such a long, hard winter could produce the most spectacular spring in years
From The BBC
Why is it going to be a stunning spring? I’s been the longest and coldest winter in years, but the pay-off will be a spectacular spring, conservationists say
Conclusion : An early spring is climate, but apparently a late spring is just weather. When can we expect retractions from The Guardian, BBC and Real Climate?
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I can’t believe you are hassling out Bill Oddie!!!
Catastrophic AGW appeantly stopped during the English 2009/2010, the coldest winter in 30 years, and the cold is just weather.
Uh huh!
Oh fiddle sticks!!
Catastrophic AGW apparently stopped during the 2009/2010 English winter, the coldest in 30 years, and that the cold is just weather.
Uh huh!
“Wildlife winces at early spring”
Sure, to refute this argument, you Just need count the corpses of the small animals in a harsh winter: Wildlife loves mild winters.
Global warming, we see it before our eyes.
Every Spring, when natural forces decide.
The weather in my part of the UK has been cold, persistently so, for several months just as the weather has been warm for so many years before that.
But, it’s the persistence of cold rather than the coldness that, to me, seems more noteworthy.
“Last April, I wrote an article titled Global Warming and “The Early Spring” which highlighted one of the favorite AGW myths, that CO2 is making winter warmer and spring arrive earlier.”
The piece that tried to make inferences about Global Warming from 7 days of May 2009 data from ‘selected’ areas representing less than 5% of the Earth’s surface?
Reminds of the media hype on the other side. I guess that’s called ‘balance’ these days.
There is no sense of proportion and of very recent climate history in my country anymore, the “we’re all doomed merchants” hold sway and the naysayers and realists are pooh-poohed.
There are a bunch of gloom mongers who have a large following and are treated as demi gods in my country because they are ‘of the earth’ and gardening is like a religion here.
There is no God given correct ‘time’ of year for early flowering plants, but in Britain it used ( since my childhood) to be snow drops and primroses in late Jan to early Feb followed by Crocuses in late Feb early March, then Daffs, Mar – April and Tulips and Bluebells in May, this was the sequence (usual but by no means always) in the North of England.
This natural cycle has been earlier in recent years but then who can argue with mother earth?
We have had in recent times some quite mild winters and very good it has been for the birds, flowers and bugs.
So when BBC gardeners who have the attention span of some garden birds start pontificating on how the planet is changing and gaining considerable traction, I inwardly groan.
But in some people’s small minds, a mild winter is a harbinger of greater and more serious consequences and put a few mild winters together and bingo! Man-made Global Warming.
2009 was quite cold, 2010 was even more so and I find that spring seems to be finding it’s old rhythm quite nicely and we will have bluebells in May as we did in the past~ no panic!
No no no. Early spring or late spring this is all due to man made climate change. Al Gore has blamed both hot and cold on climate change. There is nothing climate change can’t do!
Steven…, in the case of Britain, it should be renamed thus: “The British Urban
Heat Isles…” [BUHI] (The Mother of all Heat Islands)…Here in Sweden, the correlation of cold winters=late springs and mild winters=early springs is not that obvious as
we have SW/W winds predominating…Snowcover here in Solna just NW, 3 km
from Stockholm inner city arrived Dec 14 and in a few hundred sq metres down
“my” hill, Framnäsbacken, “Huvudstafältet” aka Capetown Field, shadowed and
windshielded, there is still 15-20 cm, and 2 cm new snow yesterday that
covered the 4 m high mountains of old snow nearby, when will these monsters melt??
Not very many days into January the evening tabloids started webb questions
“Do you fancy more snow? Alt 1. Yes, I love it Alt 2. No, it’s enough…
Late January: Alt 1 Yes, bring it on Alt 2. No Alt 3. I’ve already emigrated
south…[Between the lines you could read this…But you get the idea] We had
a long winter but only 7-8 days were sunny and cold which is nice, I still
think at 54…
One of the few places left in the British MSM to have your say about “climate change” is in the biggest-selling newspaper, the Murdoch-owned Sun.
They are offering everyone who registers and logs in an opportunity to tell the politicians what they think. In case you missed it, the General Election is a mere month away -May 6th.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/mysun/2896598/No-green-light-for-eco-issues.html
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TOP boffins have been warning of the perils of man-made climate change for years – and been met with a frosty reception. But as world leaders meet and scientists compare notes and cry for immediate action, MY Sun users on our news forum are giving alarm scares the cold shoulder.
Do climate claims have you worried?
TIREDAGE60 definitely knows exactly where he stands – alongside the sceptics:
“For goodness sake, hasn’t anyone learnt yet what lying, thieving, cheating charlatans this government are and their capability to use any means necessary to extort more taxes out of us plebs, even if it means lying through their teeth?
“Scientists are prepared to say whatever their paymaster wants them to say regarding climate change.
“WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE! You’ve been had, big time! Accept it!”
And yet Jekyll79 thinks he spots a flaw in the logic: “You make the assumption it is a conspiracy led by our government. As far as I am aware, climate change is a world wide issue. Not just something the Labour government dreamed up.”
Conspiracy
“The whole ‘hoax’ is just an international conspiracy to shake the pockets of the rich nations and give to the poor ones so they can waste it,” explains Wotsaname.
Scientists do not know squat. They just follow the party line
Brian615
“If the technology really worked and it was so important governments would cover every roof in the land with photovoltaics… Talk about being ‘suckered’.”
“Today’s scientists don’t know squat,” claims Brian615. “They just follow the party line so as not to upset the apple cart.”
So egg-heads aren’t so hard to crack then?
Zaust is not one to be preached at: “It’d take about five minutes’ research and half a brain to realise that climate change is no more proven than your average religion.
“I have no doubt that trying to cut back is a good thing but the doomsayers really need to realise that there’s been NO ice at the poles many times before without the world ending.”
That’ll be a comfort to the polar bears, I’m sure.
Or maybe it’s all part of the circle of life? “This planet has gone through climate change since it was first formed. It will go through climate change again, no matter what mankind does,” insists Weefatshug.
“This is not a new phenomenon. Ice core samples show that much bigger changes occurred in the past. Even the Gulf Stream switched off at one stage, causing an Ice Age in Europe.”
Xanadu2012, however, is sceptical about the sceptics: “I think that many people who deny climate change exists are just afraid that they will have to make more compromises in their life rather than basing their beliefs on relevant facts.”
Are you an eco worrier? Or does climate chaos leave you cold?
Add your comment in the box below to join the debate
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/mysun/2896598/No-green-light-for-eco-issues.html#ixzz0kIxD3LK7
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Yep earlier & earlier Springs etc, yawn, yawn! What contemptible arrogance mankind has to think that “nature” is unable to adapt to subtle changes in climate, like it has been doing for millenia! We’re the ones who are failing to adapt, not “nature”. As for the RSPB banging on & on about AGW & CC caused by mankind, causing the demise of so many birds, their habitat, their food supplies, they secretly admitted a little while ago that the demise of many a small bird in & around towns, was the increase in feral cats allowed to go wild by their stupid owners’ failure to look after them properly! Law of nature, too many predators = not enough food!
Let’s check out a different basket of cherries…
Halifax sun sears new record
Last Updated: Monday, April 5, 2010 | 7:21 AM AT
CBC News
The hot, sunny weather in Halifax on Sunday turned out to be a record-breaker.
The temperature registered 23 C at Halifax Stanfield International Airport, according to Environment Canada, which shatters the old record of 17.7 C set in 1981.
That’s nearly 10 degrees Fahrenheit above the old record
New York Will Approach Daily High Temperature Record Tomorrow
April 05, 2010, 10:22 AM EDT
By Brian K. Sullivan
April 5 (Bloomberg) — New York City may flirt with record warmth tomorrow as temperatures remain about 20 degrees above normal until late this week, the National Weather Service said.
How about South Carolina?
Tuesday’s high temperature could set record in Anderson
Nikie Mayo Independent Mail
Posted April 5, 2010 at 6 p.m.
ANDERSON — Temperatures in Anderson County on Tuesday could break records set more than 50 years ago, as the Upstate feels the effects of an unusual warm-weather pattern that is expected to last through Wednesday.
Well that’s April. What about March?
Canada basks in record high temperatures
Last Updated: Wednesday, March 17, 2010 | 9:10 PM ET
CBC News
Many Canadians enjoyed the warmest St. Patrick’s Day ever Wednesday, with many places in the country logging record high temperatures with spring still officially a few days away.
Even Florida
Editorial: Record heat puts a spring in everyone’s step
By Jackson Citizen Patriot staff
April 05, 2010, 1:14PM
The calendar says spring started more than two weeks ago, but it truly arrived on Thursday. Record or near-record temperatures at the end of the week put all memories of winter in the rear-view mirror.
“When can we expect retractions from The Guardian, BBC and Real Climate?”
You’re kidding of course, right?
I will think that the word ‘retraction’ is unknown in their lexicon …
““Climate change is not something that is happening a million miles away – it is going on in our own back gardens,” said nature presenter Bill Oddie.”
I hate to inform Bill Oddie but there’s really nothing of anything a million miles away other than the empty cold vacuum of space with an occasional near Earth asteroid and a solar observing satellite passing by. It’s cold empty space weather there for sure (except if you’re absorbing sun radiation in which case it can get plenty hot).
Also it’s not climate that happens in our back gardens, it’s WEATHER that happens there! Climate happens in abstract mathematical statistics collected over 10 to 30 years or more! Well, except for that other definition of climate, as in which climate do you live in? Oh, in Vancouver we live in a wet coast rain forest type of climate in the Fraser river delta so there are a couple types of climate zones in the area, mountains too. Other than that, climate is an abstraction and it’s WEATHER that unfolds second to second and minute to minute.
You should maybe look at Germany, France and the Nordic nations also.
Maybe also a look at drought doomsday stories for North Africa and Southern Europe – this winter appears to be warmer and wetter there, which is good for filling up water tables etc.
Reasons? Jet stream alterations means atlantic front systems follow a different path to recent years. Note I don’t use the word ‘normal’. There isn’t a ‘normal’, there’s a number of modes with a myriad of minor oscillations from them.
Certainly the basis for a paper to discuss this sometime??
As far as I can tell, the seasons have warmed unevenly in the UK. Winter has warmed very little, if at all. Summer shows some warming but not much. Spring has warmed, with March being prominent. Autumn has warmed most of all with October standing out as by far the warmest month.
Yes, I know, warming is no proof of cause of warming.
Does anyone from either side of the AGW divide (sceptic or believer) have a reason why warming has been so selective?
I put this again:
Spring coming in FInland, described using river Tornionjoki ice melting day from the end of year (red) and sunspot activity (blue) after Maunder minimum:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1278929/jl-ap-tas.jpg
This is quite perfect match. Now it is intresting to see what happens now when sunspots are down. This spring’s ice meltings seem to happen much later than last few years, if weather forecasts for coming 2 weeks hold. Ice is also quite thick because of cold winter.
“…conservationists say Experts believe release of pent-up energy after such a long, hard winter could produce the most spectacular spring in years…
So, the Experts believe that Spring is, quite literally, a spring.
Okay, got it.
“… experts believe release of pent-up energy …”
Pent up energy? Eh? Where is it pent up? What kind of energy? Heat energy? Cold energy? Electricity? Where is it stored? What are they talking about?
The sun goes around the other side of the sun and the angle of the earth’s tilt, ~23 degrees, let’s the sun heat the northern instead of the southern hemisphere. How is that “pent” up like a battery?
In the oceans? that’s both cold and warmer, isn’t it?
In the ice? that’s all cold and cold sucks heat to melt, lots of heat.
What the heck are they talking about? Can’t they ever be specific with their slosh stories?
Oops, too late… no editing capability.
The EARTH goes around the other side of the sun and the angle of the earth’s tilt, ~23 degrees, let’s the sun heat the northern instead of the southern hemisphere. How is that “pent” up like a battery?
The Earth is on a slow rotisserie as it orbits the sun Sol alternating between heating the northern and southern hemispheres (summer) while heating the other hemisphere not so much (winter).
Do these journalists and alleged scientists forget this basic physics fact? It’s stunning.
Unless the Earth moves closer to the sun, or alters it’s axis angle to 0 degrees, or the atmosphere becomes as thick as Venus, or we nuke everywhere (or something like that), the Arctic will always be below zero celsius in the winter thus there will always be sea ice coverage. The planet would need to warm up like what 30c to 50c or more for there to be no ice at all. If that were to happen we’d really be in Al Gore’s death scenario. Not likely from CO2 though.
Correct me if I’m wrong.
It amazes me how little people even attempt to think.
Now maybe I get stuff wrong but at least I’m willing and able to admit it when I do and learn from the correction and apply it to thinking again.
The Earth is tilted. I’d love to know more about how this fact impacts weather and climate. If Anthony or someone else informed with the depth of knowledge would write an excellent article on that and how said fact impacts “weather” and “long term (ahem) climate” soothsaying, ahem predictions, please do so. I would be grateful and maybe we’d all learn something too.
Heck, do the climate models even take it into account? If so how? How accurate is it modeled? Really?
“Earth’s axial tilt is 23.44°”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_tilt
During the 1920-30s in the British Isles there was a pronounced warming period (comparable with that claimed in the late 20th C) which naturalists then termed ‘climatic amelioration’. This was part of a North Atlantic warming phase that affected Grenland, Iceland and the Svalbard area – as I found on links to Nordic sites posted on WUWT last year. One (seemingly forgotten) consequence was that during this period Iceland became colonised by several species of waterfowl spreading north from Europe.
Unfortunately, there were few British naturalists in those days to record the effects of this warming phase on wildlife; and spring phenology in general was poorly documented and is now difficult to locate. Certainly, any data are not readily accessible nowadays for comparison with recent trends. ‘Climate science’ was virtually unheard of and there were no eco-warriors concerned about harmful effects on the environment. One can only wonder what Jones et al. would have made of it all had they been active in those decades.
Like the MWP, the 1920-30s warm phase has been erased by the entire AGW lobby. Those decades need to be re-examined in depth, prefereably on both sides of the Atlantic, to assess whether recent spring advances in timing of plant growth and other events are really so unusual. I suspect strongly that they are not; it has all happened before.
>>Leone:
>>I put this again:
>>Spring coming in FInland, described using river Tornionjoki ice
>>melting day from the end of year (red) and sunspot activity (blue)
>>after Maunder minimum:
>> http://dl.dropbox.com/u/1278929/jl-ap-tas.jpg
Interesting graph. Do you have data for the last 10 years?
.
“… experts believe release of pent-up energy …”
This means they are not experts. There is no such thing as “pent-up energy”.
How stupid do they think we are?
As for the BBC, they don’t call it the “British Brainwashing Corporation” for nothing. The BBC’s malign and corrupting influence pervades all the British media covering this subject. This situation will continue until such time as all the BBC’s staffers’ pension funds have divested themselves of all their investments in carbon trading companies.