Via Eurekalert, a press release about projections of “Melting Marches” from the Heidi Cullen frozone team who says loss of freezing zones is “worse than we thought”. Minnesotans for Global Warming say “YES!”.
New Climate Central projection map shows local and national retreat of freezing temperatures in March
PRINCETON, NJ. On the last day of the month, Climate Central has just published an interactive animated map showing what we might expect in Marches to come as the climate warms. Developed by Climate Central scientists, the map uses special high-resolution projections covering the Lower 48 states to show where average March temperatures are expected to be above or below freezing each decade this century. The map also compares projections under a low, reduced carbon pollution scenario versus a high one that extends current trends.
Under the high scenario, Climate Central’s work shows majority or complete loss, by the end of the century, of these freezing zones in every state analyzed. Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota would lose the most total below-freezing area, while seven other states, from Arizona to Wisconsin, are projected to lose all they currently have. A table on the group’s website lists details state by state.
The projections promise earlier starts for gardeners, farmers, and golf enthusiasts. At the same time, they would mean earlier snowmelt. In the American West, early snowmelt years have already been linked to drier rivers and forests later in the summer, and very much higher wildfire activity – projected to intensify with further warming. Scientists also expect challenges for irrigation supplies and cold-water stream life like trout.
“These maps imply future changes the research community is only beginning to appreciate,” said Climate Central scientist Dr. Ben Strauss.
Climate Central is a nonprofit group of journalists and scientists dedicated to communicating the best and latest climate science.
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Dr. Heidi Cullen? ’nuff said to tell me this is junk. I can barely watch the Weather Channel now that she’s not spewing her opinions there.
Pretty pictures!
Look me up in 80 years, and then we can discuss whether they are accurate enough for me to give a crap about what they assert.
I’m having a hard time taking on responsibility for climate conditions in 2090. To be honest, I’ve already given up on fighting ivy in my back yard which I think I can lay at the feet of the British who brought the damn stuff in. So much for old world/last world thinking about what the next generation might prefer.
I think the folks who are around in 2090 are going to have to deal with the world they get – pretty much like I did coming up. The problem is actually quite weird – we can’t fix the climate we have but we’re all hell-bent to fix the climate we leave behind. Stoopid!
What will those who inherit that climate think of our stewardship of climate and what we calculated they’d prefer? My bet is the Brits would prefer more succulents and less moss just as they do today. Hello – there’s a reason we take our vacations to summery places. Nobody thinks “hell, Maud, let’s do that dreary summer cottage thing in north Scotland – I do love a good grey fog.”
How about: Hold m’beer, dood – I figgered out what the world needs and I’m going to fix the climate.
I think its too late for me but I would so love to have a MWP in my lifetime here in Seattle. I might even dress the part. I promise not to sing.
Gavin can tell you, “Climate forecasts do not have any skill below the continental level.” Will he tell these folks? I doubt it.
So I guess the largest North American snow extent (2010) occurred during a “no freeze” period?
“bring the two men to accountability for their fast selling books that according to Valerie Masson-Delmotte LSCE did not pass the peer reviewed system…”
Now the reality of the modern version of the “peer reviewed system” of pseudoscience is becoming clearer, in case anyone missed it.
Yes indeed, it is Lysenkoism.
Back on topic, “what we might expect in Marches to come”… or might not.
Close enough to pass the current “peer reviewed system,” especially with the nice colorful map. Some cute little Easter bunnies on it would have been nice for the holidays. And surely it must be catastrophic that so many snowshoe hares are still white after the snow melted.
Here is a plot of Minnesota average March temperature 1970-2009 (the CO2 influenced period according to the IPCC models).
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/MN_March.jpg
The blue line is 32 F – there is a declining number of years with March above freezing – the opposite of what these alarmists project.
(Data graphed at the NOAA NCDC site (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/state.html)
It just proves there’s still money and fame to be made off global warming hysteria. When I see even a single party make some serious money off “global cooling”, I’ll know the tide has irrevocably turned. The new theme among tarnished promoters of CO2 abatement is “AGW insurance”. Their revised line is that we should take economically harmful actions against fossil fuels and in favor of ruinously expensive “renewables” as a hedge against the “possibility” that AGW theory is anywhere near correct.
If folks buy into that new line, I may go into the “asteroid strike” insurance business and use a premium schedule parallel to the “AGW insurance” argument. For $10 million a year, I’ll write you an “asteroid strike” policy for a face amount of $100 million and I’ll have no problem finding underwriters willing to back that bet.
In the spirit of the day that’s been filled with so much silliness, permit me to add this little touch …
This proves it … there are too many men in the field of climate science with their minds hard-wired to think in linear terms. That may be fine for building a railroad and laying the tracks in a straight line from point A to point B, but the climate system doesn’t work in such a fashion. Let’s get more women in the field and employ some of that female circular thinking to handle the chaos of the climate.
What’s the climate going to be like in 80 years? Hell, I’d like to know what the weather’s going to be doing in 8 hours! It’s no fun going to bed not knowing that the area’s going to be socked in with dense fog at morning rush hour with a 30 mile commute. Oh, that’s right – that fog warning was issued all right – at 4 am; lot of good that does.
Or making plans to do yard work and the day turns chilly & rainy when it was supposed to be mild & partly cloudy.
Right, I know – weather’s not climate; climate’s the average of weather over a period of time, usually 30 years. So, if the weather forecasts keep being wrong so often, then the sum of all those wrong weather forecasts make for a wrong climate forecast.
My own model shows 2090 nearing the end of another cold half cycle, assuming 1998 wasn’t the end of the Holocene.
Looking forward to it. 🙂
Orbiting into an ice storm in space – did it happen and could it happen again:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1262904/Prehistoric-hailstorm-triggered-1-000-year-freeze-Earth-wiped-animal-species.html
I bet everything I will ever have that the climate in the 2090s will be almost identical to the one we have now regardless of steps we take naturally or forced to the strong arming of politicians.
Why o why are these projections that predict any changes in future weather patterns always headlined as something like
“worse than we thought”
Earlier snow melt leads to drier rivers and forests earlier in the year, astounding, never thought of that one.
Dr. Cullen was dropped by The Weather Channel as part of the NBC cuts. However, to some extent the pro Global Warming stand has continued there. But, lo and behold, yesterday TWC actially included a brief debate of climate change by two meteorologistfs. I was unable to stop my work and turn up the volume. Did anyone here happen to see it?
This page examines March data for a couple of stations that are in the area that is frozen in March in the 2010s and unfrozen in the 2090s according to the Climate Central map.
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/MN_March.htm
There is a declining number of Marches above freezing in recent decades – contradicting the Climate Central alarmists who are apparently trying to hide this decline.
Mike McMillan (00:07:41) :
My own model shows 2090 nearing the end of another cold half cycle, assuming 1998 wasn’t the end of the Holocene.
I can’t get my model to show anything beyond 21 December 2012 — it just sits there and pouts.
For crying out loud. even if they could come up with this junk-science, which of the 21+ General Circulation Models were used to obtain this computer output? Were the GCMs chosen based on which produced heating in the central plains of the US?
Some of these Bozos (that means clowns) believe that the GCMs can give regional future climate changes, regional warming, cooling, drought, and flooding.
What does it mean when 8 models shows warming in the central plains of the US, 7 models show no change, and 6 models show cooling? This is all pure junk-science.
@ur momisugly Alan Cheetham (00:34:34) :
T H A T . I S . A W E S O M E !
hahaha
I’m sorry, but when I read Climate Central I mistakenly thought it was Comedy Central. My mistake, but perfectly understandable.
Some of the “breaking news” beside the interactive map MUST be April Fools.
Surely.
Mustn’t they?
Please?
Bill Tuttle (00:46:40) :
I can’t get my model to show anything beyond 21 December 2012 — it just sits there and pouts.
I’ve got a hotel reservation in Merida for then, nice little place, simple rooms, used to be a monastery or somesuch. Should be plenty of tour buses headed out to Chichen Itza. Don’t wear blue jeans.
“Worse than we thought.”
So this is the state of climate science?
A scaremongering statement about a scenario which projects a trend founded on a possibility based on unproven theories.
I can predict the results of every Climate projection caused by global warming (in Britain). Summers will be hotter and drier and winters will be milder and wetter.
Presumably something similar could be said about North America.
I’ve put this link in before but it’s always worth a laugh. (Come 2020 I’ll remeber this)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/whattheymean/theuk.shtml
The BBCs “climate change experiment”
899 (20:53:36) :
If the weather cannot be predicted with ANY degree of accuracy a mere one month in advance, then how does one pretend to declare what the weather will be 80 years hence?
Into what set of crystal gonads do those prognosticators gaze?
They don’t. They claim to predict the climate not weather. Given that you don’t seem to know the difference but honour us with your comments anyway, I’d guess [snip].
Dec. 2006
” The Weather Channel’s (TWC) Heidi Cullen, who hosts the weekly global warming program “The Climate Code,” is advocating that the American Meteorological Society (AMS) revoke their “Seal of Approval” for any television weatherman who expresses skepticism that human activity is creating a climate catastrophe.”
http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=500
I have nothing nice to say.