Guest post by Steven Goddard
(UK Pic Photo: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response)
England, Scotland and Wales completely covered in snow, January, 2010
In my last article, I discussed the current theory that global warming is going to turn England into a tropical paradise. And ten years ago we were told by The Met Office that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” But five years ago the theory was that global warming will turn England into a frozen wasteland.
THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.
The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” that carries warm water north from the tropics has weakened by 30 per cent in 12 years, scientists have discovered. The findings, from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, give the strongest indication yet that Europe’s central heating system is breaking down under the impact of global warming.
Scientists have long predicted that melting ice caps could disrupt the currents that keep Britain at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be, but the new research suggests that this is already under way. It points to a cooling of 1C over the next decade or two, and an even deeper freeze could follow if the Gulf Stream system were to shut down altogether.
The British Isles lie on the same latitude as Labrador on the East Coast of Canada, and are protected from a similarly icy climate by the Atlantic conveyor belt, which carries a million billion watts of heat. Although oceanographers still think it unlikely that the currents will stop completely, this could reduce average temperatures by between 4C and 6C in as little as 20 years, far outweighing any increase predicted as a result of global warming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article598464.ece
What the scientists were saying is that the melting Arctic is going to flood the North Atlantic with cold fresh water, and will slow down the Gulf Stream. The BBC explained it like this :
Global Warming will cause the Greenland ice cap to melt which, when combined with increased rainfall at high latitudes, will potentially disrupt the THC by adding freshwater and decreasing sea water salinity in the North Atlantic…. Winters would be much colder than now “along the lines of the winter of 1962-1963” suggests Jenkins, with summers being cooler and shorter. This would have many social implications including (not surprisingly!) transport and agriculture. 3-4°C may not sound much, but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
Sun photo : English cars buried in global warming
The Guardian explained it like this:
“Based on climate simulations we think that UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down,” says Michael Vellinga, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. For those who can remember back that far, this would make the average UK winter feel more like 1963, when February temperatures hovered around -5 C.
So here is the climate cycle timeline:
- 2000 – Snowfalls are a thing of the past in Britain
- 2005 – Britain to turn into a frozen wasteland
- 2010 – Britain to become a tropical paradise like Portugal
Climate science in England shows a statistically significant cycle, alternating between tropical forecasts and ice age forecasts every five years.
What do readers think?
England’s Five Year Climate Forecast Cycle
England, Scotland and Wales completely covered in snow, January, 2010
In my last article, I discussed the current theory that global warming is going to turn England into a tropical paradise. And ten years ago we were told by The Met Office that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” But five years ago the theory was that global warming will turn England into a frozen wasteland.
THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.
The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” that carries warm water north from the tropics has weakened by 30 per cent in 12 years, scientists have discovered. The findings, from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, give the strongest indication yet that Europe’s central heating system is breaking down under the impact of global warming.
Scientists have long predicted that melting ice caps could disrupt the currents that keep Britain at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be, but the new research suggests that this is already under way. It points to a cooling of 1C over the next decade or two, and an even deeper freeze could follow if the Gulf Stream system were to shut down altogether.
The British Isles lie on the same latitude as Labrador on the East Coast of Canada, and are protected from a similarly icy climate by the Atlantic conveyor belt, which carries a million billion watts of heat. Although oceanographers still think it unlikely that the currents will stop completely, this could reduce average temperatures by between 4C and 6C in as little as 20 years, far outweighing any increase predicted as a result of global warming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article598464.ece
What the scientists were saying is that the melting Arctic is going to flood the North Atlantic with cold fresh water, and will slow down the Gulf Stream. The BBC explained it like this :
Global Warming will cause the Greenland ice cap to melt which, when combined with increased rainfall at high latitudes, will potentially disrupt the THC by adding freshwater and decreasing sea water salinity in the North Atlantic…. Winters would be much colder than now “along the lines of the winter of 1962-1963” suggests Jenkins, with summers being cooler and shorter. This would have many social implications including (not surprisingly!) transport and agriculture. 3-4°C may not sound much, but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
Sun photo : English cars buried in global warming
The Guardian explained it like this:
“Based on climate simulations we think that UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down,” says Michael Vellinga, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. For those who can remember back that far, this would make the average UK winter feel more like 1963, when February temperatures hovered around -5 C.
So here is the climate cycle timeline:
2000 – Snowfalls are a thing of the past in Britain
2005 – Britain to turn into a frozen wasteland
2010 – Britain to become a tropical paradise like Portugal
Climate science in England shows a statistically significant cycle, alternating between tropical forecasts and ice age forecasts every five years.
What do readers think?
1. Ice age for the UK
2. Tropical paradise for the UK
3. Just the usual cold, rainy mess
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“I have worked in both Bristol and Cambridge. Bristol is much warmer in the winter because it faces the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Note in the first picture in the article that while England, Scotland and Wales are covered with snow, Ireland is not. Once again because Ireland is closer to the Gulf Stream.”
Not true, Cambridge and the rest of the SouthEast corner of the UK gets continental European weather, whereas the rest of the UK is influenced primarily by the weather systems from the Atlantic.
The ocean around the South West of England is very slightly warmer than that around Ireland but in the photo it is still covered with snow. The water around Ireland is hardly any different in temperature from the water around the UK.
England usually only gets snow when the prevailing winds are from the north and are carrying extremely cold air from the Arctic. In these conditions the air temperature (-5 to -10Celsius) is much lower then the sea temperature (+10 + 12 Celsius), so it is difficult to see why the Gulf Stream would have much impact on snowfall.
Pete H (22:30:35) :
Me too!
Steve Goddard (17:48:15) :
ScientistForTruth (15:58:53)
“Perhaps just an old article about Easter on the Met Office web site?”
No, the page was created November 19, 2008 (metatag shows 2008-11-19) so the very snowy Easter in 2008 (as per my links) was recent history (just a few months earlier!), so there’s no excuse, even if the page wasn’t updated for Easter 2009.
More likely, it was supposed to be the warmest decade for 1000 years, so a white Easter in that decade, and the coldest Easter for 40-70 years (depending on location) was quietly ignored. The BBC are now propagandizing that the last white Easter was in 1998, citing the Met Office as their source. The 2009 Easter snowfall in East Anglia might have been local, but the 2008 cold and snowfall was widespread and record breaking. They must think we have very short memories, or are incapable of doing even the most basic research. It is this type of junk and lazy journalism, attached to a policy of bias that has created perceptions about AGW out of nowhere.
From today:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8589512.stm
The Gulf Stream does not appear to be slowing down, say US scientists who have used satellites to monitor tell-tale changes in the height of the sea.
Five year climate cycle or have we identified a five year news cycle or perhaps a five year research funding cycle.
“THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.”
——-
OBSERVATIONS
BBC – 29 March 2010
Sorry, forgot the link
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8589512.stm
Buffy Minton (02:01:39) :
No. Not me.
Ryan (03:15:46) :
Sea surface temperatures on the west side of England are 2-4C higher than the east side due to the Gulf Stream. This makes it warmer in Bristol than in Cambridge.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadisst/charts/actual.png
Buffy Minton (02:01:39) :
I don’t know a Bruce Herrod
Apart from the Gulf Stream not slowing down and picking up a little other research suggests that its warming influence is a myth.
In a letterto the Economist.com M.I.T. professor of physical oceanography Dr. Carl Wunsch says:
More on the Gulf Stream myth.
MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW September, 1900
Yet the myth survives even after being ridiculed over 100 years ago.
johnnythelowery (20:17:57) :
We had El Nino last year
Was it not that you had, instead, a Nino that never grew up ?
Jimbo (08:22:01) :
Over 100 years ago, many ridiculed the idea of the airplane.
Steve was referring to the England who’s capital is Copenhagen.
“Gulf Stream ‘is not slowing down'”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8589512.stm
“Between 2002 and 2009, the team says, there was no trend discernible – just a lot of variability on short timescales.”
How far back to Polar Ice cover data reach? I recall seeing a Kriegsmarine atlas of ice cover, which reached back in the 30s i think. Would that be of any interest?
It’s amazing that the Gulf Stream folk-lore myth is still being dragged out of the cupboard when a climate scare story is needed!
This idea was many years ago, when it was shown that it is the air circulation which is responsible for our Western European temperate climate. Couple of links below:-
2006 – The Source of Europe’s Mild Climate
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/2006/4/the-source-of-europes-mild-climate/5
The play that the doomsday scenario has gotten in the media—even from seemingly reputable outlets such as the British Broadcasting Corporation—could be dismissed as attention-
grabbing sensationalism. But at root, it is the ignorance of how regional climates are determined that allows this misinformation to gain such traction. Maury should not be faulted; he could hardly have known better. The blame lies with modern-day climate scientists who either continue to promulgate the Gulf Stream-climate myth or who decline to clarify the relative roles of atmosphere and ocean in determining European climate.
2007-Climate mythology – The Gulf Stream, European climate and Abrupt Change
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/
It is long time that the Gulf Stream-European climate myth was resigned to the graveyard of defunct misconceptions along with the Earth being flat and the sun going around the Earth. In its place we need serious assessments of how changes in ocean circulation will impact climate change and a new look at the problem of abrupt climate change that gives the tropical climate system and the atmosphere their due as the primary drivers of regional climates around the world.
This is further confirmation, if needed, that Michael Vellinga and the rest of the cretins at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, don’t even get to first base regarding an understanding of climate. Cargo cult science at it’s best!
Hawaii is warm because it is surrounded by warm water. Iceland is cold because it is surrounded by cold water.
The Gulf Stream brings warm water to the North Atlantic, which is why you can find Palm Trees in northern Scotland close to the Arctic Circle.