Guest post by Steven Goddard
(UK Pic Photo: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response)
England, Scotland and Wales completely covered in snow, January, 2010
In my last article, I discussed the current theory that global warming is going to turn England into a tropical paradise. And ten years ago we were told by The Met Office that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” But five years ago the theory was that global warming will turn England into a frozen wasteland.
THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.
The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” that carries warm water north from the tropics has weakened by 30 per cent in 12 years, scientists have discovered. The findings, from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, give the strongest indication yet that Europe’s central heating system is breaking down under the impact of global warming.
Scientists have long predicted that melting ice caps could disrupt the currents that keep Britain at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be, but the new research suggests that this is already under way. It points to a cooling of 1C over the next decade or two, and an even deeper freeze could follow if the Gulf Stream system were to shut down altogether.
The British Isles lie on the same latitude as Labrador on the East Coast of Canada, and are protected from a similarly icy climate by the Atlantic conveyor belt, which carries a million billion watts of heat. Although oceanographers still think it unlikely that the currents will stop completely, this could reduce average temperatures by between 4C and 6C in as little as 20 years, far outweighing any increase predicted as a result of global warming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article598464.ece
What the scientists were saying is that the melting Arctic is going to flood the North Atlantic with cold fresh water, and will slow down the Gulf Stream. The BBC explained it like this :
Global Warming will cause the Greenland ice cap to melt which, when combined with increased rainfall at high latitudes, will potentially disrupt the THC by adding freshwater and decreasing sea water salinity in the North Atlantic…. Winters would be much colder than now “along the lines of the winter of 1962-1963” suggests Jenkins, with summers being cooler and shorter. This would have many social implications including (not surprisingly!) transport and agriculture. 3-4°C may not sound much, but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
Sun photo : English cars buried in global warming
The Guardian explained it like this:
“Based on climate simulations we think that UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down,” says Michael Vellinga, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. For those who can remember back that far, this would make the average UK winter feel more like 1963, when February temperatures hovered around -5 C.
So here is the climate cycle timeline:
- 2000 – Snowfalls are a thing of the past in Britain
- 2005 – Britain to turn into a frozen wasteland
- 2010 – Britain to become a tropical paradise like Portugal
Climate science in England shows a statistically significant cycle, alternating between tropical forecasts and ice age forecasts every five years.
What do readers think?
England’s Five Year Climate Forecast Cycle
England, Scotland and Wales completely covered in snow, January, 2010
In my last article, I discussed the current theory that global warming is going to turn England into a tropical paradise. And ten years ago we were told by The Met Office that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” But five years ago the theory was that global warming will turn England into a frozen wasteland.
THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.
The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” that carries warm water north from the tropics has weakened by 30 per cent in 12 years, scientists have discovered. The findings, from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, give the strongest indication yet that Europe’s central heating system is breaking down under the impact of global warming.
Scientists have long predicted that melting ice caps could disrupt the currents that keep Britain at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be, but the new research suggests that this is already under way. It points to a cooling of 1C over the next decade or two, and an even deeper freeze could follow if the Gulf Stream system were to shut down altogether.
The British Isles lie on the same latitude as Labrador on the East Coast of Canada, and are protected from a similarly icy climate by the Atlantic conveyor belt, which carries a million billion watts of heat. Although oceanographers still think it unlikely that the currents will stop completely, this could reduce average temperatures by between 4C and 6C in as little as 20 years, far outweighing any increase predicted as a result of global warming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article598464.ece
What the scientists were saying is that the melting Arctic is going to flood the North Atlantic with cold fresh water, and will slow down the Gulf Stream. The BBC explained it like this :
Global Warming will cause the Greenland ice cap to melt which, when combined with increased rainfall at high latitudes, will potentially disrupt the THC by adding freshwater and decreasing sea water salinity in the North Atlantic…. Winters would be much colder than now “along the lines of the winter of 1962-1963” suggests Jenkins, with summers being cooler and shorter. This would have many social implications including (not surprisingly!) transport and agriculture. 3-4°C may not sound much, but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
Sun photo : English cars buried in global warming
The Guardian explained it like this:
“Based on climate simulations we think that UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down,” says Michael Vellinga, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. For those who can remember back that far, this would make the average UK winter feel more like 1963, when February temperatures hovered around -5 C.
So here is the climate cycle timeline:
2000 – Snowfalls are a thing of the past in Britain
2005 – Britain to turn into a frozen wasteland
2010 – Britain to become a tropical paradise like Portugal
Climate science in England shows a statistically significant cycle, alternating between tropical forecasts and ice age forecasts every five years.
What do readers think?
1. Ice age for the UK
2. Tropical paradise for the UK
3. Just the usual cold, rainy mess
NASA Study Finds Atlantic ‘Conveyor Belt’ Not Slowing
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2010-101
I remember reading about the original idea about 10 years ago in New Scientist. It certainly seemed plausible.
From what I remember of the article : the Russians were saying that Greenland melting would not be sufficient to cut off the Gulf Stream, as most fresh water in the Arctic came from Siberian rivers. They were proposing a project to divert some of this fresh water from Siberia to refill the Aral Sea, but needed a few billion dollars of international aid to complete the project. They said that this would be sufficient to remove the danger. I would certainly have liked to have seen this project completed but I am assuming it got nowhere.
“anticlimactic (09:59:35) :
[…]
From what I remember of the article : the Russians were saying that Greenland melting would not be sufficient to cut off the Gulf Stream, as most fresh water in the Arctic came from Siberian rivers. They were proposing a project to divert some of this fresh water from Siberia to refill the Aral Sea, but needed a few billion dollars of international aid to complete the project. They said that this would be sufficient to remove the danger. I would certainly have liked to have seen this project completed but I am assuming it got nowhere.”
A simple attempt to grab some billion dollars by pretending you solve a problem that doesn’t exist in the first place; instead of stopping using the water from the Aral tributary rivers for irrigating cotton fields, in other words, misallocating other people’s capital on a grand scale.
Granted, it’s small fries compared to the AGW subsidies and Cap&Trade schemes that are already in place in Europe.
Peter Miller: FYI—I’ve canoed many of Canada’s arctic rivers and never saw a dam. The most northerly dams of consequence that I know of are in Alberta/BC on the Peace River and the Taltson.
Talking about siberian rivers, you have to see these color photographies from Russia from about 1910:
Sergey Prokudin-Gorsky
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergei_Mikhailovich_Prokudin-Gorskii
Bridge over Siberian river:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Prokudin-Gorskii-25.jpg
Exhibition:
http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/empire/
Architecture:
http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/empire/architecture.html
A city with its river in Siberia:
http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/empire/images/p87_4507__00755_.jpg
All these photos have been made with 3 monochromatic plates and color filters.
and check out todays temp in the arctic –
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Seems that all that release of pent up energy over the winter is having an effect now.
Who woulda thunk?
So all the ice will melt in the arctic, including the greenland cap, cool off the gulf stream and cause Europe to congeal into an icy forbidding terrain. The solution is simple, move to the balmy arctic.
Sean Peake: While the Canadian rivers that drain to the Arctic aren’t dammed, many of them have substantial diversions for agricultural and oilfield use. Those rivers would include the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers and their thousands of tributaries, and the Red River (which also drains parts of the northern US). While the rivers aren’t necessarily dammed, much of the water that would normally flow into them never makes it there.
On the other hand, the modern agricultural practices across the prairies have left the soil unable to absorb water, which leads to massive spring run off, causing, among things, the frequent severe flooding along the Red River. The clearcut logging on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies and the Alberta foothills has much the same effect.
It’s hard to say, on balance, whether the flow of fresh water to the Arctic has been increased or decreases by human activity in Canada.
An explanation of the Atlantic circulation / Gulf Stream:
-It doesn’t significantly heat Europe
-It’s not slowing down
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/GW_4CE_NATCGulfStream.htm
From your insert of the Timesonline: THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate …
Years ago in an article I cannot now find a comment was made regarding warm water flowing westward through the Strait of Gibraltar, turning northward, and contributing to the process mentioned above about the Gulf Stream. Also, some images suggest the warmth of the Gulf Stream is distant from NE Europe at least some of the time. See here, p.3:
http://er.jsc.nasa.gov/SEH/Ocean_Planet/activities/ts2siac2.pdf
In searching for mention of Mediterranean warm water, some promising titles are behind pay-walls. I haven’t found the sort of thing I am looking for.
The concept is interesting because as this water moves northward, and being both warm and salty, once having its warmth transferred to the atmosphere it would contribute to the deep water. The transfer of warmth from water to atmosphere will occur closer to Europe than does the warmth of the Gulf Stream.
It may be that the volume of water and the heat involved is too little to have much influence (compared to the Gulf Stream), or it may happen too far south. If this is a significant contributor or compensates when the Gulf Stream slows then the climate of NW Europe may be (here it comes) more robust than previously thought. (Sorry, I couldn’t help myself.)
Can anyone help with a reference?
Interesting stuff, and typical UK forecast, but for Pete’s sake it’s the UK, or Great Britain, it is not England, any more than it is Wales Scotland or Ireland. Get it right otherwise such simple errors undermine your academic rigour.
Sorry to get on the pedantic bandwagon. And can I preface my next comment by saying what a wonderful resource this site is…
…but …
as other have already pointed out, England is NOT an interchangeable alias for the the UK … or Great Britain … or the British Isles. For those of us in Scotland, Wales or Norther Island … its tedious to have to keep making the distinction. We are not “English” and that snow-amp is not a map of England.
Otherwise … thanks, and carry on the good work !-)))
BBC News
Monday, 7 December 2009
“if the largest of them (the East Antarctic Ice Sheet) melts, the global sea level will rise by an estimated 64m”
source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8399036.stm
The article appears to indicate oceanic thermal expansion as the single largest contributing factor to sea level rise with melting glaciers and then ice sheets from Greenland.
Other article tabs relate to Acid Oceans, Heat maps, and Water stress.
thanks for the great link Alan Cheetham
Kate (06:00:43) :
Actually, Kate, when the President said he won’t quit trying, that I believe.
Two can play that game.
America does not accept the things he is doing, and C&T is right on top of that list, being based on the nonsense of AGW.
If the President and Carol Browner Energy won’t quit, why should we?
It looks like the Met Office is wisely playing it more conseravative now when it comes to decadal forecasts. They now say ,
“Looking further ahead, our experimental decadal forecast confirms previous indications that about half the years 2010–2019 will be warmer than the warmest year observed so far — 1998.”
If future El Ninos happen every 2-2.5 years, like the last decade , they may come closer to their forecast.[ warming every second year ].As we saw this year there are also more negative AO cold winters during El Nino years spanning the winter. During EL Nino years 60% of the months have a cold AO .
However if El Ninos happen about every 3-3.5 years [closer to long term average[18 El Ninos in 60 years since 1950] , they may be close only about 30% of the time . With the other natural planetary cycles[AMO,PDO] possibly heading also for cool or negative[ latter part of 2010?], their forecast may be found wanting 70% of the time. A La Nina later this year is a possibilty .La Ninas have followed an El NINO , about 50% of the time within 1-7 months after the El Nino ends. During the last cool spell for Europe and Uk ,namely 1962- 1987, 70% of winters were below norm[ AMO was neagive most of the time ] The winter of 2010/2011 may as colds as the last one if not colder.
Sediment studies of the Gulf Stream between the tip of Florida and Cuba have shown that the Gulf Stream slows mainly during cold periods and not warm. The slowing down of the Gulf Stream in the last 12 years is in agreement with Phil Jones’s statement that we have not warmed in 15 years and been cooling for the last 8.
There is not enough fresh water that can be delivered fast enough to stop the Gulf Stream and if it tends to speed up with warming, it would, in effect, protect itself from the effects of fresh water.
Peter Miller (01:18:12) wrote: “In Canada and Russia, several of the great Arctic rivers have been dammed and much of their fresh water is now pumped southwards for industrial and agricultural purposes…”
Unless it just happened last night when all the lights were off for Earth Hour, this statement only applies to Russia.
Current forecast for mid-week is for up to 20cm of “global warming” over much of the UK from Central Scotland to the English Midlands.
We hardy souls in Caledonia will carry on with barely a murmur; the English press will collectively burst into tears at the injustice of it all.
A sort of green “fuzz” on a particular local hedgerow has become a sort of marker for the first sign of Spring here in recent years. Usually visible from about St Patrick’s Day onwards (appropriate!). This year, as at this morning, still no sign! This has been a long hard winter by the standards of the last 30 years, I kid you not.
Sorry for my redundant comment re Canadian rivers. Missed the later ones.
But, just to keep things factual…
Mark Rose (11:11:08) wrote that “While the Canadian rivers that drain to the Arctic aren’t dammed, many of them have substantial diversions for agricultural and oilfield use. Those rivers would include the North and South Saskatchewan Rivers and their thousands of tributaries, and the Red River (which also drains parts of the northern US).”
NONE of those rivers flow to the Arctic Ocean. They flow into Hudson Bay.
And NONE of those mentioned have the ‘oilfield’ uses you mention. I’m guessing you are referring to the oil sands projects which use some water from the Athabasca R which does flow to the Arctic Ocean eventually. However, note that because the oil sands are a big fat cash cow that the Greens are trying to extort money from, what most people have heard is exaggerated BS times ten over.
And only the South Saskatchewan has any significant use for agriculture.
To your comments on flooding. Where do you get your info? The Red River has always flooded. Read some history. Or look at glacial Lake Aggasiz.
No doubt more pavement and land use changes have had an impact but…
And this is truly gross exaggeration: “The clearcut logging on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies and the Alberta foothills has much the same effect.”
Bottom line is that no activity in Canada is having any significant or even measurable impact on the amount of water flowing into the Arctic Ocean.
I have worked in both Bristol and Cambridge. Bristol is much warmer in the winter because it faces the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Note in the first picture in the article that while England, Scotland and Wales are covered with snow, Ireland is not. Once again because Ireland is closer to the Gulf Stream.
The Gulf Stream keeps the North Atlantic warm, which keeps the UK warm.
Ha-ha, even better: “Spring postponed as snow forecast in parts of UK” http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8591688.stm (28 Mar 2010)
UK to have a climate like Potugal? A pleasant prospect!
However, I won’t be ordering the sun awnings just yet.
I just feel latitude, geography, and the Atlantic Jet stream might just intervene and the UK weather will be just as disappointing as it has always been.
Al Gored: Thanks for that. I was about to respond with the same points when my teenage daughter came home and I experienced the full effects of a “Seagull Offspring” (they storm in, leave s**t all over the place then leave). You’re exactly right about the Red River, and its problems have been made worse by overdevelopment on the floodplain and drainage channel changes. The Red River valley area is pretty much flat and flood waters have extended over wide areas in March and April for ages well before there were farms etc—(shameless book plug alert) I’ve researched and written about David Thompson (The Travels of David Thompson available on Amazon later this year) who was a surveyor and trader for the Hudson’s Bay and NorthWest companies and he was the first to survey the river back in 1798 and was delayed by floodwaters for two weeks.
Sean Peake – I too have extensively researched David Thompson, and found a great deal of popular mythology incorporated into what has been written about him in some recent books. Hope yours is better.
One point that most historians seem to have missed is that while the latter part of his Narrative is extremely accurate for a narrative because it was based on his still surviving journals – for both his and our reference – the early part of it was just based on his memories decades later. So… not so reliable, to put it mildly. Yet historians quote those early memories as though they were recorded facts.
And then there’s the conveniently lost journal of 1810, which allowed him to tell tales about why he turned away from the Howse Pass route and went north to Athabasca Pass.
The Met Office needs to be turned out and deprived of its taxpayer cheques. They are still pushing Global Warming on their website. Come into my garden, Met Office drones, and admire my February Gold daffodils flowering AT LAST, nearly April, because of the late Spring. Do I see a late Spring commented upon anywhere? No. Not politically correct.
Temperature in North London may be 13 degrees today, but we have snow storm forecast next week. Where is this dangerous Global Warming? I don’t believe it. WHY are we still paying these people with our hard earned taxes? Turn them out into the real world. And the BBC.