Guest post by Steven Goddard
(UK Pic Photo: NASA/GSFC, MODIS Rapid Response)
England, Scotland and Wales completely covered in snow, January, 2010
In my last article, I discussed the current theory that global warming is going to turn England into a tropical paradise. And ten years ago we were told by The Met Office that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” But five years ago the theory was that global warming will turn England into a frozen wasteland.
THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.
The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” that carries warm water north from the tropics has weakened by 30 per cent in 12 years, scientists have discovered. The findings, from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, give the strongest indication yet that Europe’s central heating system is breaking down under the impact of global warming.
Scientists have long predicted that melting ice caps could disrupt the currents that keep Britain at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be, but the new research suggests that this is already under way. It points to a cooling of 1C over the next decade or two, and an even deeper freeze could follow if the Gulf Stream system were to shut down altogether.
The British Isles lie on the same latitude as Labrador on the East Coast of Canada, and are protected from a similarly icy climate by the Atlantic conveyor belt, which carries a million billion watts of heat. Although oceanographers still think it unlikely that the currents will stop completely, this could reduce average temperatures by between 4C and 6C in as little as 20 years, far outweighing any increase predicted as a result of global warming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article598464.ece
What the scientists were saying is that the melting Arctic is going to flood the North Atlantic with cold fresh water, and will slow down the Gulf Stream. The BBC explained it like this :
Global Warming will cause the Greenland ice cap to melt which, when combined with increased rainfall at high latitudes, will potentially disrupt the THC by adding freshwater and decreasing sea water salinity in the North Atlantic…. Winters would be much colder than now “along the lines of the winter of 1962-1963” suggests Jenkins, with summers being cooler and shorter. This would have many social implications including (not surprisingly!) transport and agriculture. 3-4°C may not sound much, but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
Sun photo : English cars buried in global warming
The Guardian explained it like this:
“Based on climate simulations we think that UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down,” says Michael Vellinga, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. For those who can remember back that far, this would make the average UK winter feel more like 1963, when February temperatures hovered around -5 C.
So here is the climate cycle timeline:
- 2000 – Snowfalls are a thing of the past in Britain
- 2005 – Britain to turn into a frozen wasteland
- 2010 – Britain to become a tropical paradise like Portugal
Climate science in England shows a statistically significant cycle, alternating between tropical forecasts and ice age forecasts every five years.
What do readers think?
England’s Five Year Climate Forecast Cycle
England, Scotland and Wales completely covered in snow, January, 2010
In my last article, I discussed the current theory that global warming is going to turn England into a tropical paradise. And ten years ago we were told by The Met Office that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.” But five years ago the theory was that global warming will turn England into a frozen wasteland.
THE Gulf Stream currents that give Britain its mild climate have weakened dramatically, offering the first firm scientific evidence of a slowdown that threatens the country with temperatures as cold as Canada’s.
The Atlantic Ocean “conveyor belt” that carries warm water north from the tropics has weakened by 30 per cent in 12 years, scientists have discovered. The findings, from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton, give the strongest indication yet that Europe’s central heating system is breaking down under the impact of global warming.
Scientists have long predicted that melting ice caps could disrupt the currents that keep Britain at least 5C (40F) warmer than it should be, but the new research suggests that this is already under way. It points to a cooling of 1C over the next decade or two, and an even deeper freeze could follow if the Gulf Stream system were to shut down altogether.
The British Isles lie on the same latitude as Labrador on the East Coast of Canada, and are protected from a similarly icy climate by the Atlantic conveyor belt, which carries a million billion watts of heat. Although oceanographers still think it unlikely that the currents will stop completely, this could reduce average temperatures by between 4C and 6C in as little as 20 years, far outweighing any increase predicted as a result of global warming.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article598464.ece
What the scientists were saying is that the melting Arctic is going to flood the North Atlantic with cold fresh water, and will slow down the Gulf Stream. The BBC explained it like this :
Global Warming will cause the Greenland ice cap to melt which, when combined with increased rainfall at high latitudes, will potentially disrupt the THC by adding freshwater and decreasing sea water salinity in the North Atlantic…. Winters would be much colder than now “along the lines of the winter of 1962-1963” suggests Jenkins, with summers being cooler and shorter. This would have many social implications including (not surprisingly!) transport and agriculture. 3-4°C may not sound much, but the average air temperature difference between the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when vineyards thrived in southern England and the ‘Little Ice Age’ when the River Thames regularly froze over was only 1-2°C.
Sun photo : English cars buried in global warming
The Guardian explained it like this:
“Based on climate simulations we think that UK winters would be around 5-10C colder on average if the Gulf Stream shut down,” says Michael Vellinga, of the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. For those who can remember back that far, this would make the average UK winter feel more like 1963, when February temperatures hovered around -5 C.
So here is the climate cycle timeline:
2000 – Snowfalls are a thing of the past in Britain
2005 – Britain to turn into a frozen wasteland
2010 – Britain to become a tropical paradise like Portugal
Climate science in England shows a statistically significant cycle, alternating between tropical forecasts and ice age forecasts every five years.
What do readers think?
1. Ice age for the UK
2. Tropical paradise for the UK
3. Just the usual cold, rainy mess
The Labour Party have already turned it into a Socialist Hell! Who cares what the fecking weather will be like?
More snow this week forecast in the UK. However, it seems that the Met office records are not even correct in the recent past. The BBC website today states:
“Statistically, snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas, according to the Met Office website. Over the past half a century, snow has fallen across low-lying areas of the UK during 12 Easter breaks – the last time was the Easter of 1998.”
The Met office says
“Easter 1-3 April 1983 – this was the snowiest Easter with Scotland, the Midlands and Kent getting up to 10 cm of snow. Over the past 45+ years, snow has fallen quite regularly, even in lowland areas. For example, 1958, 1965, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1977, 1978, 1982, 1983, 1986, 1994 and 1998 were all years when snow fell.”
I can tell you, East Anglia, where CRU is situated, is in a ‘low-lying area’ and definitely had snow on Easter Sunday last year, 2009: at least an inch and a half fell overnight, and it was a complete whiteout that morning.
The previous year, 2008, was the coldest Easter in some parts since the 1930s, with widespread snow, especially in East Anglia. See for example,
http://www.buryfreepress.co.uk/news/Snow-hits-region.3926361.jp
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article3607669.ece
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-544088/It-coldest-Easter-40-years–spring-weather-April.html
Why is this not being registered by the Met office. If we have snow (as is forecast) this week, that will be three white Easters in a row. It seems that both the BBC and Met Office are promoting the idea that the last ‘White Easter’ was 1998, which is total rubbish.
……’The Hardley Ever Center!
or even…………’The Hardley Even Remotely Close to Center!’
ScientistForTruth (15:58:53) : Why is this not being registered by the Met office. If we have snow (as is forecast) this week, that will be three white Easters in a row. It seems that both the BBC and Met Office are promoting the idea that the last ‘White Easter’ was 1998, which is total rubbish.
Damn good sleuthwork. I hope that you badger the Met and the BBC for an explanation!
I am sure they don’t have one, because the weather in the UK as of late is not going as planned!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
ScientistForTruth (15:58:53)
Perhaps just an old article about Easter on the Met Office web site?
Dr David Viner, the UEA CRU genius who in 2000 predicted no more snow, is now head of the British Council’s climate change programme.
As “the UK’s international cultural relations body”, why does the British Council even have a climate change programme?
If this summer does turn out to be a scorcher, you can bet that they will be screaming AGW. If not then there will be a lot of nonsense about needing to look at the longer term trend. What ever happens, they want this CO2 tax, and by hook or by crook they are going to impose it.
“So – I have no idea about the amount – much less fresh water is now entering the Arctic than say 50 years ago.” Peter Miller (01:18:12) :
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5790/1061 “Increasing river discharge anomalies and excess net precipitation on the ocean contributed ~20,000 cubic kilometers of fresh water to the Arctic and high-latitude North Atlantic oceans from lows in the 1960s. Sea ice attrition provided another ~15,000 cubic kilometers, and glacial melt added ~2000 cubic kilometers. ”
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/298/5601/2171
“…river-monitoring data reveals that the average annual discharge of fresh water from the six largest Eurasian rivers to the Arctic Ocean increased by 7% from 1936 to 1999. The average annual rate of increase was 2.0 ± 0.7 cubic kilometers per year. Consequently, average annual discharge from the six rivers is now about 128 cubic kilometers per year greater than it was when routine measurements of discharge began.
We had hail in the blue mountains (They are not very tall mountains in actual fact) yesterday here in Australia, and we’ve only just gone into Autumn.
In an interview, the late Nobel laureate, Linus Pauling was asked:
How does one make important scientific discoveries?
Pauling’s response (not an exact quote):
First you have lots of ideas. Then you throw out the bad ones.
My elaboration. There’s an intermediate Step 2: Cast those brilliant ideas into testable hypotheses.
Climate Alarmist ‘scientists’ have made some headway on Steps 1 and 2. But they just can’t wrap their brains around Step 3.
Climate change computer models make predictions, some of which are falsifiable. On the whole, the falsifiable predictions have proven to be pure codswallop.
After his pet hypothesis suffers a stunning defeat in the real world, any real scientist would admit that he was mistaken. Then he’d try to understand what was wrong with the hypothesis. After some soul-searching, he’d either modify the bad hypothesis and do a new experiment to test it, or chuck it entirely.
Instead of being intellectually honest, Climate Alarmist ‘scientists’ have taken a page from the celebrity psychics’ playbook:
First you make lots of predictions. Then you trumpet the few that turn out to be correct, by the luck of the draw.
This is what the British Climate Alarmists appear to be doing. Steve, thanks for calling them on it.
To all you Aussies out there:
I thought Ayers Rock was the highest point in Australia!!!! : )
Anyway, the coming projected heat wave in the UK is I suppose generated by El Nino but the Sun is doing pretty much nothing so we’ll see. I imagine it’ll be pretty much like last year as not much has changed since 2009. Am I right? We had El Nino last year and a dead sun.
Ass-U-M ing that the Sun doesn’t explode into sunspot activity any time soon which it has missed it’s usual sun spot ramp-up roll going back to 2001(?)
Sean Peake (14:45:46) :
You sound like a good candidate to give a paper at next year’s biennial meeting of the Canadian Science and Technology Historical Association, which will probably be held at Wilfrid Laurier University in Kitchener-Waterloo. Think about it. We have trouble getting papers dealing with topics prior to about 1850 and a paper on David Thompson would be quite welcome. Think about it.
I don’t know who wrote this first here: On the other hand, the modern agricultural practices across the prairies have left the soil unable to absorb water, which leads to massive spring run off,
That is a gross misrepresentation of facts. I’ve been an agricultural professional working in the field for over 40 years in southern Alberta and have some experience in soils and water. I’ve witnessed about 30 percent of the time period of land use in southern Alberta and will attest that soils are just fine thank you. Can we do better yet? Probably, but these sensational claims are without foundation.
Yes we have spring runoff. No surprise there. But there is virtually no bare summer fallow left in Alberta. Min-till and no-till is the norm on vast tracts of cropland. But even the 50 percent fallow land is left covered from crop to crop.
But what is this nonsense about “left the soil unable to absorb water” ? That is
sheer rubbish. Soils in Southern Alberta are in good healthy condition producing high-yielding crops with little erosion or runoff. Water percolates through soils today as it always has. Organic matter, tilth and soil structure is fine. Organic matter is maintained through crop rotations and application of manure when possible. Indeed, soil management in the early part of the last century was poor and lead to soil degradation. Today, soil erosion is minimal to non existent and water seeps in just fine. Crop yields are ever increasing, but fluctuate with varying weather from year to year.
It is also an exaggeration to say, “much of the water that would normally flow into them never makes it there.” Yes, considerable water in the S SK system is diverted, but considering the entire Saskatchewan River drainage heading to HB, through the course of a year very little is diverted.
Clive
Sorry if I posted a duplicate: I’m having router problems and got an offline message when I attempted to submit the first time.
Where some might see a sine wave, I see only bipolar disorder
😛
“10 deg c outside, lovely and sunny”
“13 deg today”
Sorry guys. Nowhere in my universe is 10-13 degrees anything but a cold and miserable climate.
If the gulf stream shuts down because ice in the northern latitudes is melting, and the northern latitudes freeze over as a result, won’t that solve the problem?
I remember the UK freeze of 1963 very well (that was a time when we had real weather forecasters not these climate nitwits!). I will take a little global warming rather than the months of freezing days and night we suffered!
“johnnythelowery (20:17:57) :
To all you Aussies out there:
I thought Ayers Rock was the highest point in Australia!!!! : ) ”
Not sure about that, but what I am sure is that Ayres Rock is the biggest single lump of rock on Australian land and also the Earth.
“Failing ocean current raises fears of mini ice age”
30 November 2005 by Fred Pearce
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn8398
So, if the energy transport from the equator to the pole stops, can someone explain to me where the missing heat is being dumped instead?
Steve Goddard, were you sharing an office with the late Bruce Herrod in 1984? If so, I was next door. Otherwise…there are at least two Steve Goddards.
“We’re gonna freeze!”
“We’re gonna fry!”
“We’re gonna freeze!”
“We’re gonna fry!”
“We’re gonna freeze!”
“We’re gonna fry!”
Then they wonder why their credibility is in tatters?!
I’m English and the summer weather is (sadly) as bad is it ever was. When I was in my twenties and all this global warming nonsense was new, it seemed plausible, because when you are 20 you haven’t really got a memory for “climate”, only for “weather”. Now I’m well into my 40’s I can dig out my old holiday snaps from when I was ten and I can see that the weather now is much the same as it was way back then – we only seem to go through cycles of “weather” – the weather now reminds me of the late 70s/early 80’s, big deal. I’m expecting a at least 5 more years of the same.
We owe it to our children to protect their innocent minds from the brainwashing pollution of Team AGW. We know better – but our kids don’t.