Volcano erupts near Eyjafjallajoekull in south Iceland
An Icelandic volcano, dormant for 200 years, has erupted, ripping a 1km-long fissure in a field of ice.
The volcano near Eyjafjallajoekull glacier began to erupt just after midnight, sending lava a hundred metres high.
Icelandic airspace has been closed, flights diverted and roads closed. The eruption was about 120km (75 miles) east of the capital, Reykjavik.
What volcanic scientists fear is the fact that this eruption could trigger an eruption of Katla, one of the most dangerous volcanic systems in the world.
Eruptive events in Eyjafjallajökull are often followed by a Katla eruption. The Laki craters and the Eldgjá are part of the same volcanic system. Insta-melt could occur:
At the peak of the 1755 Katla eruption the flood discharge has been estimated between 200,000–400,000 m³/s; for comparison the combined average discharge of the Amazon, Mississippi, Nile, and Yangtze rivers is about 290,000 m³/s.
More here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katla
Video of the eruption:
Volcano Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull Iceland 20 Mars 2010.
The volcano near the Eyjafjallajoekull glacier began to erupt shortly after midnight, leading to road closures in the area.
No one was in immediate danger, but 500 people were being moved from the area.
It is almost 200 years since a volcano near Eyjafjallajokull, 120km (75 miles) east of Reykjavik, last erupted. The last volcanic eruption in the area occurred in 1821.
Taken from C-FQWY / TF-SIF DHC-8-314Q Dash 8
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So far this is a small eruption and will not have any effect on the climate.
In order for that to happen it must grow dramaticly in size. But we have to wait and see what is going to happen. We are only in the beginning of the eruption and it may grow in size, and there is always the possibility that it will be followed by a large explosive eruption from Katla.
It is a little exciting to follow this eruption since the last one of the Volcano was 1823, and also it is an oppurtunity to study the relationship between Eyjafjallajökull and Katla and possibly study the development and how it may finally trigger an eruption at Katla.
Jeff L (12:47:26): … I think I have some idea how Leif feels when the blog gets on solar topics.
I sincerely subscribe to your point of view. I have two questions:
1. What is the probability of a Katla eruption given that we have a Eyjafjallajoekull eruption?
2. What is the average delay between a Eyjafjallajoekull eruption and a Katla eruption? Is it a matter of days or are we talking years?
Best Regards,
Invariant
kadaka (11:43:41) :
Iceland?
Lots of little seismic events, see “last 48 hours” list, nothing all that big.
You mean nothing all that big YET?
Question for Richard Tyndall,
I found your comparison of mid ocean ridge volcanos vs. subduction zone volcanos quite interesting and it seems to be a very good analysis. (In fact, I once worked on a project for making penetration resistant safe walls and a key ingredient was use of high silica or quartz type aggregate as these were so viscous, a burn bar could not get though them quickly.) Any way, the other thing a subduction quate wil have is sedimetary rock that is thrown into the earth’s grinding machine. These will contain water, carbonates, sulphates and other types of rocks producing massive amounts of gas. From what I understand, Indonesia is at the intersection of three plates that manages to produce a lot of gas in very viscous rock so its no coincidence that 2 of the most explosive volcanic events in the last 200 years have occurred there.
Bruce of Newcastle, there have been a lot of earthquake swarms at Eyjafjallajökull during March. In the last 48 hours it has not been so much intense activity. But the magma had probably worked its way up during the March activity, but the small amount of EQ: s just before the eruption suggest that it didn´t have to fight so hard to finally crack the surface. You can find the earlier seismic activity here at Michel´s site. http://islande2010.mbnet.fr/2010/03/eyjafjallajokull-levolution-des-dernieres-heures/
“Jeff L (12:35:35) :
Sonicfrog (11:37:54) :
“We” (being geologists) know a lot more than you think. Given the physics of the forces involved, mass balance considerations, modern GPS measurements (which can track current plate movements), and the geologic record of plate motions, there is no data to support the idea that the plates might suddenly “accelerate”. ”
But that’s what geologists said for over 50 years when they denied the plate tectonic hypothesis. It was only due to military research in the 50’s and 60’s that such data became available in order for plate tectonic theory to be polished and accepted.
I suspect we do not know as much as we think about whats going on below us. So much funding is being used to support the climate modelists to prove the AGW hypothesis, and research funded by the military is not always in the public domain.
That said, people do seem a bit too quick to embrace their favourite end of the world scenario, and the science supporting it. Events in 2010 must be doing wonders for 2012 DVD sales.
Icelanders agree. “This could trigger Katla, which is a vicious volcano that could cause both local and global damage,” Pall Einarsson, from the University of Iceland, said.
In my opinion, this statement and more the same from the MSM have the science wrong. The media express the fear that this may “trigger” Katla. Are they confusing two related events? Maybe this is the prelude to an eruption of Katla, but from my limited understanding of geology, it would be wrong to claim that the one eruption “caused” or triggered the second.
You see,,, the Eruptuons fasten onto the Manmade CO2 molecules, and spin ever faster and faster in their orbits, eventually causing cataclysmic eruptions!
It’s all our fault! The Mayans were right!
This story should be fun to watch!
Invariant (14:47:02) :
I won’t BS you – I have degrees in both geology & geophysics & have a good understanding of the big picture geology of Iceland, but the questions you pose would require a much better understanding of the minutia of Iceland geology to answer – although I am guessing the answers are “out there” somewhere in cyber space – seeing that we have multiple references to these linkages in the initial post – hopefully someone has actually done that research & cataloged the results
Is there a good description of events the last time this happened in 1821 (or there abouts)?
Supporting Lubos’ point:
Katla Eruptions
1999, 1955, 1918, 1860, 1823, 1755-56, 1721, 1660-61, 1625, 1612, 1580, 1450 ± 50 yr, 1440, 1416, 1357 ± 3, 1311, 1262, 1245, 1177 ± 2, 1150 ± 50, 934 AD ± 2, 920 AD, 270 AD ± 12, 850 BC ± 50, 1220 BC ± 12, 1450 BC ± 40
It’s business as usual for GeoGaia folks, so get used to it.
One BBC documentary suggested Iceland would eventually become a new continent, which I find fascinating.
It could bring in quite a few tourists if it lasts – it must be really spectacular to see this kind of eruption live.
As for the energy driving volcanic eruptions, sorry, this geologist does not buy plate tectonics, but supports the PLasma Model – where the Earth is best described as a leaky electrical capacitor in which electric charge builds up over time, and in order to requilibrate with its plasma environment, ends up producing short circuits, here as a more viscous plasma eruption.
Energy source? Study the THEMIS mission data – 100,000’s amperes of electrical currents entering the Earth via Space Tornadoes – discovered sep 2009. Causes auroras to flare.
LOL – you gotta feel sorry for the Icelandic at the moment. First their economy collapses, now it looks like their country’s going to be covered in molten lava. Tough break.
Invariant (14:47:02):
Answer question nr 1: I don´t know, but I can refer to the historic records including the two most recent eruptions at Eyjafjallajökull, 1612 and 1821-1823. During 1612 eruption Katla also erupted, and the 1821-1823 eruption was followed by a Katla eruption later in the same year 1823. But remember that those are only the two most recent eruptions and it is not sure it will behave the same this time.
See Katla and Eyjafjallajökull records at Global Volcanism Program:
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-03=
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=1702-02=
Answer question nr 2: I don´t know, but I imagine it could be between a few weeks and a few years ( as in the case of 1823 when Eyjafjallajökull had been active in 2 years before the Katla eruption ). Most likly there will be several signs before possible Katla eruptions. Likely there will be increased seismic activity and ground uplift focused on Katla. There are a lot of monitoring so I don´t think we will be surprised by a Katla eruption.
But we can´t know for sure how these volcanoes behave together. 😉
pft, let’s be a tad more nuanced when you claim: “But that’s what geologists said for over 50 years when they denied the plate tectonic hypothesis’.
1) there were “fixists” and “mobilists” among geologists at the trun of the 20 century
2) many alpine geologists such as Argand had mapped large thrust faults and thus were already convinced of important lateral movements versus vertical ones
3) Wegener work included many geological, paleontological observations
4) it was a geophysicist Sir Harold Jeffreys who calculated continents could not drift on SIMA. He was right but later on it was found that plates actually include a rigid upper portion of the upper mantle and the same calculation would show plates could move on the low velocity zone about 100km depth.
5) ironically, geophysicists used equipements like sensitive magnetometers -as you pointed out rightly, developed for military purpose first- and made key discoveries (Vine and Matthews, symetry on each side of the rift…).
6) yet many geologists had problems with the dogmatic rigid plate boundaries definition, especially when geological mapping was showing clear plate boundaries complex deformations, arcs, festoned mountain ranges etc… these issues, I believe, have been resolved.
Iceland volcno risk assessment report.
Nice read:
http://www.hrv.is/media/files/Volcanic%20risk_ web.pdf
“anticlimactic (15:18:20) :
One BBC documentary suggested Iceland would eventually become a new continent, which I find fascinating. ”
Don’t be over fascinated though. Iceland is a still an emerged piece of oceanic lithosphere -i.e. basalt MORB- as opposed to an isolated piece of continental lithosphere i.e. granitic, acid rocks.
http://www.ismennt.is/vefir/earth/mhcur/keya.htm
Volcanic Eruptions and Solar Activity
Stothers, R. B. (1989), Volcanic Eruptions and Solar Activity, J. Geophys. Res., 94(B12), 17,371–17,381.
Abstract: The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980, as contained in two recent eruption catalogs, is subjected to detailed time series analysis. Two weak, but probably statistically significant, periodicities of ∼11 and ∼80 years are detected. Both cycles appear to correlate with well-known cycles of solar activity; the phasing is such that the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). The weak quasi-biennial solar cycle is not obviously seen in the eruption data, nor are the two slow lunar tidal cycles of 8.85 and 18.6 years. Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland, covering the years 553–1972, reveals several very long periods that range from ∼80 to ∼350 years and are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and carbon 14 records. Mechanisms to explain the Sun-volcano link probably involve induced changes in the basic state of the atmosphere. Solar flares are believed to cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the Earth’s spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which may temporarily relieve some of the stress in volcanic magma chambers, thereby weakening, postponing, or even aborting imminent large eruptions. In addition, decreased atmospheric precipitation around the years of solar maximum may cause a relative deficit of phreatomagmatic eruptions at those times.
Link: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1989/JB094iB12p17371.shtml
ABOUT POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY UPON SEISMIC AND VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES: LONG-TERM FORECAST
*Khain V.E., **Khalilov E.N.
Abstract: It has been determined that in the period of solar activity increase (11-year
cycles) there increase seismic and volcanic activities in the compression zone of
Earth and at the same time there decreases the activity in the tension zones of Earth.
On the basis of the discovered stable 11-year and 22-year cyclicalities in the seismic
and volcanic activities and their high correlation with solar activity there has been
made the long-term forecast until 2018. The next maximum of seismic and volcanic
activity with very high amplitude for the compression zones of Earth is forecasted for
the period 2012-2015.
Link: http://www.khalilov.biz/pdf/About%20possible%20influence%20of%20solar%20activity%20upon%20seismic%20and%20volcanic%20activities%203.pdf
The only “damage” might be to human constructs. There will be no damage to the earth, since this is part of the daily processes which created the world we live in.
Bruce of Newcastle (14:12:29) :
Icelandic Richter 2.5 earthquakes don’t show up on the USGS earthquake site.
Technically true, as from the USGS site I linked to when you click for the 48 hours list you get sent to this auto-generated Icelandic Meteorological Office page that does show the little ones as well.
Their met office must be having a fun time right now, clicking on any listing on that list throws an “Internal server error,” they might be horribly overloaded with demand. Too bad, I wanted to check on those auto-generated Negative magnitude events. On 2010-03-20 at 00:03:09.8 there was a Negative 9.0 event, might be related to the fissure.
Thanks Jeff.
I found this in cyber space:
“Eyjafjallajökull’s most recent eruption, December 1821 to January 1823, was followed by an eruption of Katla in June and July 1823. ”
http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2010/03/04/eyjafjallajokull-and-katla-restless-neighbours/
If I should try to guess based on my gut feeling, the answers will be:
1. Probability is large as the last 3 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull has been followed by Katla eruptions.
2. The last time it took 2 years, so it may take at least a couple of months.
But I am certainly not an expert at all.
🙂
pft (14:57:14) :
“But that’s what geologists said for over 50 years when they denied the plate tectonic hypothesis. It was only due to military research in the 50’s and 60’s that such data became available in order for plate tectonic theory to be polished and accepted.”
Well, that’s not exactly the correct history. See link for a better accounting the history of plate tectonics:
http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/geology/techist.html
Of course, the key here was there was DATA supporting the hypothesis clear back to Wegner in 1912 (nearly 100 years ago! – see details in the paper) But the the science was immature & the geoscientists of the day could not explain a mechanism to drive plate motions or it conflicted with their world view, so they dismissed it. This has so many similarities to the AGW debate – climate science is really not much older than geologic science was at the same time & many scientists are rejecting data not consistent with AGW out of hand because it doesn’t fit with their world view. But who was right in the end? The side of the debate that had the support of the DATA. As with plate tectonics, I am confident non-CO2 drivers will prove out with time to be the dominant force in our climate system because of all the data support (which is regularly posted on WUWT, as well as other places).
“I suspect we do not know as much as we think about whats going on below us.”
I suspect you are wrong. The military doesn’t drive geoscience technology now – oil & gas companies do. In the age prior to acceptance of plate tectonics, seismic technology was in it’s infancy. Now, it is a very mature & powerful technology – which allows us to essentially produce detailed “ct scan” images of the subsurface – to great depths with great precision (I think the ct scan is something the general public might be able to relate to as an analog). These same technologies are also used extensively in geoscience research in academic settings. These seismic data are combined with gravity, magnetic & electrical properties data to produce detailed images of the subsurface where we can determine properties such as rock density, rock electrical resistivity, seismic velocities, porosity, fluid types contained in pore spaces and more. This is simply physics applied to the earth – and we understand physics very well.
Getting back to your original point of , you don’t think we know much about the subsurface – between industry & academia, there is virtually no place on earth we haven’t investigated with seismic data, so there is virtually no significant area where we dont have seismic imagery.
To give you an idea of how much we can determine with todays technology, see the following links (related to subduction zones, since there seems to be some who doubt their existence:
An interesting subduction zone article (esp see figure 5 for details we can determine – model goes to 700 km below sea level ! – the image is the geologic equivalent to a ct scan of the earth)
http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/outreach/highlights/mase/
This gives a more detailed view in 3D of the top of a subduction zone.
see for a bigger image :
http://clasticdetritus.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/nankai3dseismic.jpeg
&
http://clasticdetritus.com/2007/11/27/spectacular-3d-seismic-reflection-images-of-a-subduction-zone/
for the full article.
Mattias, Sweden (15:22:59) :
Thanks for your answer. So the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 1612 was followed by a Katla eruption the same year? Interesting. Then everything from a couple of weeks to a couple of years may be likely (based on statistics).
Smokey (12:46:39) :
CO2 is now at 389 ppm, compared to 280 ppm pre-Industrial Revolution. That’s 39% increase. Changing the temperature of the planet by even 0.9 deg C is a tremendous amount of energy being trapped:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.lrg.gif
What exactly is a “natural rebound from the Little Ice Age” ? Unseen heat from the Abyss leaking up to the surface ? The Sun increased its w/m^2 right before radiosonde and satellite measurements ? This neighborhood of the Galactic plane has higher neutrino flux ?
This is what Dr. Trenberth said:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/11/a-uhi-tale-of-two-cities/#comment-341815
The Arctic Ice cap is thinning precipitously:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/19/new-goes-15-weather-sa-reaches-orbit/#comment-349469
The oceans are heating just as expected:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/20/the-current-el-nino-still-hanging-on/#comment-349454