Guest post by Steven Goddard
Photo above from: NY Daily News: Record Snowfall in New York
Now that we have reached the end of the meteorological winter (December-February,) Rutgers University Global Snow Lab numbers (1967-2010) show that the just completed decade (2001-2010) had the snowiest Northern Hemisphere winters on record. The just completed winter was also the second snowiest on record, exceeded only by 1978. Average winter snow extent during the past decade was greater than 45,500,000 km2, beating out the 1960s by about 70,000 km2, and beating out the 1990s by nearly 1,000,000 km2. The bar chart below shows average winter snow extent for each decade going back to the late 1960s.
Here are a few interesting facts.
- Average winter snow extent has increased since the 1990s, by nearly the area of Texas and California combined.
- Three of the four snowiest winters in the Rutgers record occurred during the last decade – the top four winters are (in order) 1978, 2010, 2008, 2003
- The third week of February, 2010 had the second highest weekly extent (52,170,000 m2) out of the 2,229 week record
The bar graph below shows winter data for each year in the Rutgers database, color coded by decade. The yellow line shows the mean winter snow extent through the period. Note that the past decade only had two winters below 45 million km2. The 1990s had seven winters below the 45 million km2, the 1980s had five winters below 45 million km2, and the 1970s had four winters below 45 million km2. This indicates that the past decade not only had the most snowfall, but it also had the most consistently high snowfall, year over year.
It appears that AGW claims of the demise of snowfall have been exaggerated. And so far things are not looking very good for the climate model predictions of declining snowfall in the 21st century.
Many regions of the Northern Hemisphere have seen record snowfall this winter, including Washington D.C, Moscow, China, and Korea. Dr. Hansen’s office at Columbia University has seen record snowfall, and Al Gore has ineptly described the record snow :
“Just as it’s important not to miss the forest for the trees, neither should we miss the climate for the snowstorm,”
A decade long record across the entire Northern Hemisphere is not appropriately described as a “snowstorm.”
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Here in Minnesota, we haven’t had our snowiest decade by a long shot. In fact, the period of 1997/98-2006/07, with the exception of 2000/01, were historically warmer than normal (the most warm winters in a row by a long shot with data going back to 1820 in Minneapolis). The winters of 1999/2000, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2003/04, and 2006/07 were exceptionally mild and dry winters with only 2003/04 having any significant snowstorms of those listed (which melted thanks to unusual warmth… again unusual here). Only since 2007/08 have things seemed to have returned to normal with 2007/08 being an average winter with a very cold and snowy spring (our snowiest April on record with 50″… nearly a season’s worth of snowfall!). On the other hand, our summers have gotten noticeably colder with frequent June and August frosts which were unheard of in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s. In fact, 2004 set the record for shortest growing season here… only to be broken again in 2009 when unusual cold in early June with two days of temps down into the 20s and another frost in mid August… not good for someone who has a green thumb!
Seems that some are missing, again, Steven Goddard’s point. There is not supposed to be an increase in snow covering a larger area of the earth (as he pointed out in a previous post) in global warming predictions.
I don’t see him making a point about ‘trend from 1967 to 2010’. Do you?
But I do see this:
It appears that AGW claims of the demise of snowfall have been exaggerated. And so far things are not looking very good for the climate model predictions of declining snowfall in the 21st century.
Science requires unforgiving accuracy. Let’s try to keep things in context would be my request of scientists here. 😉
There are parts of the world that are moist enough to snow but too warm to snow in a given season. There are also parts of the world that are cold enough to snow but too dry to snow in any given season. Consider the North Pole. Changes in snowfall in the north pole would be moisture driven because all year round it is cold enough to snow at some point during the day but there is a lack of moisture. So places like the north pole would likely have more snow in a warming world.
Now consider the United States. The lack of snow here is mainly driven by it being to warm to snow not the lack of moisture. So more snow in the United States would be driven by colder temperatures.
So we have different regions of the world where different conditions (warming vs cooling) will produce different trends in snowfall.
Now I don’t understand why people think they can take the theory from the Arctic (warmer = more snow) and apply it to a different region like the US (colder = more snow) and claim that observation supports the theory.
aMINO aCIDS iN mETEORITES (19:19:18) :
There is not supposed to be an increase in snow covering a larger area of the earth
And there hasn’t been as his graphs and Willis’ and mine http://www.leif.org/research/Snow-Cover-1966-2010-NH-Winter.png show so clearly.
Nice theory, but, a large part of the UHI effect is retained heat from insolation (incoming solar radiation energy warming concrete etc) and, if no sun, no warmth … which in large part happened in Dallas Ft. Worth just recently with our record snow; and we had continuing overcast afterwards too.
When the sun *does* come out, whatever frozen precip we did have literally melts away; continued overcast and the winter precip is much longer to melt.
.
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Paul Daniel Ash (18:22:09) :
A decade long record across the entire Northern Hemisphere is not appropriately described as a “snowstorm.”
True! And Gore was not describing “a decade long record across the entire Northern Hemisphere,” so for once the two of you agree.
“Just as it’s important not to miss the forest for the trees, neither should we miss the climate for the snowstorm,” Gore wrote in a wonky Op-Ed for The New York Times.
“The heavy snowfalls this month have been used as fodder for ridicule by those who argue that global warming is a myth,” he acknowledged.
Yup, Gore and others like him hyped the alarmist claims that the ski industry would disappear and children might never see snow again. They lied and now those lies are coming back to roost.
Now, in pure revisionist mode, they are claiming that more snow is “consistent” with AGW, and in fact, a result of AGW.
And you are surprised that people would ridicule him? That people would laugh and complain about 2′ of global warming on their driveways? Isn’t it about time you removed the blindfold.
The temperatures records have been “cooked”. So it’s no surprise the hottest decade is the snowiest 🙂
Sure there is no trend. But that is because we are measuring in whole kms! Lets split the km into decimal places, and portray and do all the calculations that way. But, remember, since we are measuring snow cover, we have to eliminate the outliers, which would be all areas that are too snowy, and any areas that are deemed not snowy enough, such as the Mojave. We can’t have these outliers contaminating the trend we are trying to detect.
aMINO,
The point, to me at least, of bringing up the lack of long term trend is to preempt the quite predictable holier-than-thou, we-do-it-but-you-can’t charge of cherry picking that Tamino should be posting in 3… 2…
It’s not to beat Steve up. That’s my $0.02 at least
Too bad for the warmists they couldn’t enjoy the good times while they lasted.
Now we have another decade or two of getting our chops busted with snow & ice.
Climateprogress is patting itself on the back for displaying a list of scientists who support global warming.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/02/the-climate-change-debate-is-science-versus-snake-oil/#comment-265042
After removing all the national academies of science and national departments of something for linking their science to the UN IPCC, what have we got left?
I intend to start on this project tomorrow.
“A decade long record across the entire Northern Hemisphere is not appropriately described as a “snowstorm.””
It’s a Blizzkrieg 😉
So we have what appears to be snowiest decade, along with what is claimed to be the warmest decade…..and so what?
No great catastrophes.
No great famines.
Droughts within historic norms.
Rainfall within historic norms.
Storms within historic norms.
Snow is falling within its seasonal expectations.
But according to our AGW friends, we are facing *climate crisis*.
The point is again, that snowfall is not declining as predicted by the models.
ginckgo (18:40:53) :
And more snow is incompatible with Global Warming how?
If the Earth warms, there is less cold air to freeze the warmer moisture into snow.
If the Eath cools, there is more cold air to freeze the warmer moisture into snow.
These types of postings are devastating to AGW because the proof is provided directly. THis is why its important to keep the originals always.
“latitude (17:40:52) :
People that say CO2 = warmer = more moisture = more snow.
Moisture without cold is called rain.
This was not the rainest decade on record!”
Downunder, some places in Australia we’ve had record rains while you guys up north have had record snows.
Willis, Leif,
I haven’t seen any criticism from you about anything in the article or the data presented.
You seem to be complaining about your own inferences. I can’t take credit or responsibility for your thoughts.
Looks like NH ice is at 2000 levels! better keep originals before they start “hiding the increase” see DMI and compare with CT !
Willis,
I completely agree that the earth has to have a thermostat, given that temperatures have remained in a narrow band for hundreds of millions of years.
What are the Warmers predicting for the next decade? Whatever it is, I’ll expect just the opposite!
Well…. Just go ahead… Raise my Taxes!!!
I’ve become completely convinced that more Global Warming equals more Cold and more Snow, and that paying more Taxes is a civic duty to support the Noble cause of saving the planet…
You know – if I could pay 110% of my income as tax – I would, I really would, because you just know that the government will spend it wisely, you just know it, you can trust them to do what’s best for all of us. After all they have certainly nailed that Man Made Global Warming thingy.
What if I got a second job and worked nights and weekends, I could get some extra money to give to Greenpeace and the World Wildlife Fund to save the Polar Bears. ‘Cause they need our help, Al Gore said so, and just like the Government we can trust him too, after all he was a Vice President or something…
Seeing all that snow, well it just makes me mad to know that Man Made emissions of CO2 did all that. Making snow and killing Polar bears – I can hardly stand it.
Wheeeww… good to got that off my chest…
Yeah, yeah, if the warming is causing more oceanic evaporation thereby causing increased snow, why didn’t it come down as nice warm rain?
Well, we still don’t know enough about our chaotic climate system to say that in a warming world all that snow was impossible. Mind-bogglingly unlikely, sure, especially over a period of years (this winter was not the first such, as we know). But still not a cast-iron case.
One datum that would help a lot would be the amount of precipitation, snow and rain combined, over those snowy winters. If greater than normal, that would refine the questions we need to answer. If the same precip, equally ditto but different. If less, ditto again but also different again.
Nothing to see here folks, move on!
The snow does not exist.
The people at CRU, GISS and NCDC have conferred, and adjusted their records.
There is no snow.
There is no snow.
There is no snow.
Leif Svalgaard (19:25:50) :
Starting points are the fodder of endless arguments.