Over on the EU Referendum, Richard North points out the absurdity of media coverage on the arrival of spring. We’ve seen this before, for example at the Union of Concerned Scientists, they have this essay:
Early Warning Signs of Global Warming: Spring Comes Earlier
Even the daffodils are confused, though in that article the writer cites weather, not climate.
Here’s what North has noted about the confusion of the press:
Almost exactly three weeks ago, the press release queen, Louise Gray, was prattling about early springs as a result of global warming.
Fortunately for her, her kindly employer has spared her blushes, not requiring her to write the piece today, which tells us: “For those celebrating St David Day on Monday, there will be a noticeable absence of daffodils as the country’s growers say the cold snap has left their crops a month behind schedule.”
Britain’s “Arctic winter”, incidentally, was officially declared the coldest in 30 years “as parts of the country were lashed by gale force winds and torrential downpours.”
Strangely enough, almost exactly a year to the day, little Louise was writing under the headline, “Latest spring bloom at Kew for 20 years” – the strap reading: “After a succession of early spring blooms, flowers came out later this year than for 20 years because of the recent cold snap.”
Read the rest here at the EU Referendum
Accuweather has our weather up to average for 4 days out of the first 15 of this month…looks like most days will be 10f below normal with more snow than rain. I want spring…tired of this cold weather.
Icarus (08:39:47) :
This is puzzling – are we supposed to believe that one late spring somehow trumps 20 early ones (or whatever the figures are)?
Phil Jones said there hasn’t been any significant warming for 15 years. It isn’t one late spring.
Global satellite-measured temperatures matter (since surface readings are so easily jiggered). Global sea ice extent matters (again, satellites). Global sea level matters (again, satellites). Note the word “Global”. The regional anecdotes, as in the above article, are indicative of nothing.
30 years of failed alarmist predictions. I’m still waiting for the seas to rise any faster than they have since the 1800s.
Just to disabuse anyone of the belief that the “Union of Concerned Scientists” is something other than another left wing group spouting garbage I suggest you look here:
http://activistcash.com/organization_overview.cfm/o/145-union-of-concerned-scientists
Overview
Union of Concerned Scientists Committed to an “open-minded search for truth,” and armed with “unrivaled scientific expertise,” the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) “doesn’t say anything [it] can’t back up with solid evidence.” At least, that’s what its fund-raising letters say. The reality is quite different.
UCS embraces an environmental agenda that often stands at odds with the “rigorous scientific analysis” it claims to employ. A radical green wolf in sheep’s clothing, UCS tries to distinguish itself from the Greenpeaces of the world by convincing the media that its recommendations reflect a consensus among the scientific community. And that’s what makes it so dangerous. Whether it’s energy policy or agricultural issues, UCS’s “experts” are routinely given a free pass from newspaper reporters and television producers when they claim that mainstream science endorses their radical agenda.
Many other activist groups, Foundations and individuals are profiled for your perusal.
For the past few years, we have had earlier springs and milder winters.
Did I appreciate it, no.
I’m sick and tired of this winter, I’ll tell you that.
It started here in early Nov, and the amount of decent days we’ve had since then,
you can count on one hand.
I’ve learned my lesson. I will never complain about warm weather again!
Let’s take a look at a scenario that might be a more powerful argument IF it had occurred (but it didn’t). Suppose for example that the entire N. Hemisphere, including the arctic, had experienced a severe winter, and we saw the arctic sea ice extent go way into a positive anomaly range, and we saw this lead into a very cool summer, and then the next winter saw the same thing, and so on. But that’s not what has occurred this winter. We had a very negative AO, which brought down cold air further south than normal, but we had WARMER arctic temps over much of the area, especially Greenland, and this was all related to the same set of dynamics. The arctic sea ice extent has not shown a positive anomaly since 2004…and it remain in a negative anomaly this winter. The severe winter in SOME areas of the N. Hemisphere has been related directly to El Nino, and the negative AO which forced colder air further south and combined with El Nino moisture…but globally speaking, the troposphere has now been in record warmth territory since the beginning of the year, and NOT coincidentally, we’ve had big storms all over the globe.
As you point out, that is due to prevailing wind patterns not temperatures per se.
The heaviest single storm snow fall in Denver was in December 1913.
http://tpscolorado.wordpress.com/2008/12/09/denver-blizzard-of-1913/
Our Christmas blizzard of 1982 on Christmas Eve was also one of our all time heaviest snow falls from a single storm, and due to a strong low setting up over Springfield Colorado in the extreme south east corner of the state pulling abundant gulf moisture up into the Denver basin. The moisture is there all the time, it just needs the right wind patterns to bring it into contact with cold outbreaks.
On the possible cooling trend the Heating Degree Day numbers here in Colorado clearly show that the last 2 winter seasons were below average temperature. So far this winter season we are +318 HDD over normal, and last year we were +432 HDD. Last summer season was down on Cooling Degree Days as well being 163 CDD below average.
We have also had heaviest monthly snow fall for a winter season in Nov, Dec and January in Jan 1883 (20.5 in), Dec 1886 (10.8 in), Dec 1891(17.5 in), Dec 1892 (17.8 in), Dec 1931 (57.4 inches), Nov 1909 (22.9 in), Dec 1915 (10.5 in), Dec 1916 (16.3 in), Dec 1918 (19.6 in), Dec 1924 (18.4 in), Nov 1929 (23.1in), Nov 1946 (42.6 in), Jan 1949 (22.2 in), Nov 1953 (14.4 in ), Jan 1972 (10.9 in), Dec 1973 (30.8 in), Nov 1979 (22.3 in), Nov 1983 (29.3 in), Nov 1985 (17.0 in), Jan 1987 (17.0 in), Dec 1987 (21.5 in ), Jan 1989 (13.0 in ), Nov 1992 (29.6 in and Jan 1993 24.3 months ranked Number 1 and 2 for that winter season). Nov 1992 (20.1in), Nov 1993 (17.4 in )
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bou/?n=denver_snowfall
In many other years Nov, Dec and Jan came in second to the spring months by only very small margins. Snow fall depths have very little to do with temperatures but depend very strongly on wind direction. Especially here in Colorado where much of our snow is due to orographic lift.
Larry
Can’t grow Daffofils in Brisbane. Therefore we have no Spring. Therefore the Planet has already warmed too much. We’re all going to die.
🙂
Tim
kadaka (11:13:14) :
REPLY: Probably just a backfill flash on the camera, not worth worrying about. -A
I know that, you know that…
Little Katie’s teacher, however, is on the verge of having to accept she has spent 10+ years needlessly frightening her young charges in ever more strident terms, which is especially egregious considering the numerous studies and reports of how global warming alarmism has so afflicted our children with depression and hopelessness that psychiatric therapy and drugs are employed for treatment. Indeed, she has been an accessory to essentially terrorism, a deliberate attempt to incite fear and panic to bring about changes in political and public sentiment.
I think we should leave her twisting in the wind, and give her nothing she can warp into justifying the willful continuing of the fear-inflicting process. Perhaps you can add a little note below the photo about its source “just in case” so it’s labeled as not being from WUWT?
Besides, it’s only been what, not even a week, since that “OMG It’s Photoshopped!” uproar with that airport weather station post. So I applied the popular “Precautionary Principle” and launched a preemptive strike. And see how well it worked to address what might not be a non-issue! I strongly suspect against possible AGW complications, applying the PP shall work as well.
R. Gates (12:19:57),
Thank you for pointing out all the reasons that CO2 is not the cause of natural climate variability.
A bare couple inches at the side of the road, where the accumulated salt of winter has depressed the melting point of water does not a spring make.
Larry,
One single storm (such as the rather freakish blizzard of 1982) doesn’t tell the story, as you know. That storm of 1982 got it’s energy from the El Nino warmth off the pacific. If you remember, the storm was tracked for days as it came in off the pacific, over Californina, and finally set up in Colorado. True, the low pressure system, once it crossed the Rockies, may have set itself up in SE Colorado once in the state, but the energy for that storm was warmth from the pacific.
In regards to wind direction and storms, you are of course correct. For upslope storms to set up, since the circulation is counter-clockwise around Low pressure in the N. Hemisphere, then it takes the right set of circumstances to create that circulation around the low that will pull moisture up from the gulf coast to drop on Colorado.
Sure, we can get big snow storms any month of the year, but historically, we gotten the most snow in March, and if you want to claim that it has to do with the wind direction, we know that wind in generally is a heat-energy related atmospheric phenomenon, ulitmately caused by thermal differences in the atmoshpere. Those thermal differences set up circulation and pressure grandients which ultimately cause wind. Heat or thermal energy is the power behind all storms, and we’ve got more of it available in March, and thus, we get the most snow (on average) in Denver in March.
Smokey,
I don’t think any scientist at any time ever claimed that CO2 caused natural climate variability. Please pass that report to me if you have it…or better yet, send it right to the trash where it belongs! 🙂
R. Gates (12:41:15):
“…we know that
wind in generallyjust about everything is a heat-energy relatedatmosphericphenomenon, ulitmately caused by thermal differences…”Fixed. No charge.
But regarding wind, heat doesn’t explain it all. There’s also the coriolis force.
DeNihilist (11:31:16) :
OK – have to admit that this year on the left coast of canada, we are having a beautiful GW spring.
Don’t you mean El Nino spring? I could have sworn I heard that it’s always nice and mild for you guys during an El Nino
This is all very interesting but most of you are missing the point. There is only one reason that we have the seasons that we have now and that is because of the tilt of the Earth’s axis in relation to its’ orbital path. The key dates in the year are the equinoxes and solstices.
Since astronomers have been determining those dates those of us who use the Greco/Babylonian system have started the seasons on those dates. The Cino/Celtic system starts the seasons inbetween those dates. In our modern calendar and system beliefs we have people referring to both systems at once, e.g. the northern winter solstice, the first day of winter in the northern hemisphere, is often referred to as ‘mid-winter’s day,’ (from the Celts).
The fact that our calendar isn’t aligned to the seasons as it once may have done, during the early Roman republic period e.g., just adds to the confusion. Using the blooming of flowers such as daffodills is frought with the problems outlined above, i.e. the large variance of such events.
Like many of you I have been interested in monitoring the arrival of the daffodills around my home over the past 23 southern hemisphere winters. On only one occasion, 1988, have the daff’s popped up before the end of July. Normally they pop out towards the end of the first week in August (you northerners just think February) and the latest being August 13th. It is obvious to me that the plants are reacting to the weather/climate around them to trigger the sprouting season off.
Augusts in my part of New Zealand have been very mild for the past five years, sometimes enjoying more sunshine than any of the three following months! Despite this the daff’s never arrive outside that two week period at the beginning of August. This is the middle of winter in the S.H., hardly the start of spring.
My point on all of this is that we can talk about ‘spring-like conditions,’ or ‘winter-like conditions,’ but spring for the northern hemisphere occurs when the sun crosses the equator heading from south to north at around 18.00 hrs U.T.C. on March 20th. End of story. Anything else is a moot point.
R. Gates (12:19:57) :
No, it hasn’t.
R. Gates (12:44:34) :
I don’t think any scientist at any time ever claimed that CO2 caused natural climate variability. Please pass that report to me if you have it…or better yet, send it right to the trash where it belongs! 🙂
Couldn’t agree more… complete trash:
This is an issue that is often misunderstood in the public sphere and media, so it is worth spending some time to explain it and clarify it. At least three careful ice core studies have shown that CO2 starts to rise about 800 years (600-1000 years) after Antarctic temperature during glacial terminations. These terminations are pronounced warming periods that mark the ends of the ice ages that happen every 100,000 years or so.
Does this prove that CO2 doesn’t cause global warming? The answer is no.
The reason has to do with the fact that the warmings take about 5000 years to be complete. The lag is only 800 years. All that the lag shows is that CO2 did not cause the first 800 years of warming, out of the 5000 year trend. The other 4200 years of warming could in fact have been caused by CO2, as far as we can tell from this ice core data.
The 4200 years of warming make up about 5/6 of the total warming. So CO2 could have caused the last 5/6 of the warming, but could not have caused the first 1/6 of the warming.
…
In other words, CO2 does not initiate the warmings, but acts as an amplifier once they are underway. From model estimates, CO2 (along with other greenhouse gases CH4 and N2O) causes about half of the full glacial-to-interglacial warming.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/co2-in-ice-cores/
Now, I will say that this post at unReal Climate did not *exactly* say that CO2 “caused” natural variability – it just implied that it was responsible for 1/2 to 5/6ths of it. Which goes back to the CO2 is the “control knob” for climate belief at the heart of AGW theory. To me that’s not too different than expressing a CO2-based causality for natural variability – maybe I read it wrong(?)
” Richard111 (09:55:31) :
We had one daffodil open yesterday, Sunday 28 February, here in Milford Haven.
Today has been warm, +9C, sunny and no wind. The local global cooling fan has not turned all day. I guess Spring has arrived.”
To which fan are you referring;the one to the West of town or one of the three to the East?
Good thread, chaps and chapesses. Bears out my own mantra for these situations:
Plants (and crops) Don’t Lie.
They’ve had millions of generations to perfect their sensory systems, whereas we’ve had barely 30 years of satellite obs to dicker around with – scarcely 3 solar cycles.
From the Left Field Phenology Department:
Denver metro area highways and side streets are getting more than their share of dead skunks lately. I would attach a percentage representing the anomaly for this, but it just doesn’t seem proper to make those numbers up for such a respectable site as WUWT. The smell of course lingers for days, even after the corpses have been removed, provide small roadside eulogies to all the places where traffic and skunk have collided. If spraying is part of the skunk’s offensive package, you have to wonder if Mother Nature might put a little more work into its “flight” response to trouble. Great Horned Owls, for example, don’t eschew skunk for a meal, since they has practially no sense of smell.
FWIW, I sure don’t remember them in this great abundance (4-5 in the last month of normal driving), but Wiki informes me that Mephitis mephitis (striped skunk) typically mates in early spring, gives birth in May, and has a gestation period of about 66 days, so I guess these lingering roadside memorials are being create about on schedule (as they emerge from their dens for to mate. Obviously , it’s a rude awakening to find an SUV bearing down on you when all you wanted was… well, you know.
Apparently the US has had the first February in over 60 years without a single reported tornado.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25571/2010-brings-first-tornadofree.asp
Mann-made global warming has caused a new population of climate scientists to proliferate in the Colorado region and the skunks’ natural range. Since only one population of skunks can predominate at a time in the same territorial range, the little guys are losing their lives in the exodus.
Nick B.,
Excellent post. Indeed, in PAST warmings, something seemed to cause the CO2 to rise over a long period of time, 800 years or more, and then the CO2 warming adds to the warming as a positive feedback loop. But humans have caused CO2 to explode upward (from a historical perspective), and so THE central issue is whether humans have taken the place of whatever this natural cycle in the past was that increased CO2, and have now increased CO2 so rapidly that the positive feedback loop that CO2 (and Methane as well) gets going much quicker and more strongly than the 800 years or so lag that we saw in the historic records. Climate scientists are not disputing this lag…but the lag is not the issue…the issue is how quickly we’ve increased CO2, how quickly this positive feedback loop might get going and how strong it might be.
Les Johnson (09:36:59) :
Thanks for the heads up. The link to the paper is here:
http://secure.ntsg.umt.edu/publications/2009/WDDIRJOZNVBDSLDBKSBLL09/White%20GCB%202009.pdf
I highly recommend reading the conclusions on page 20. This is especially interesting:
“Increased greenhouse warming since the late
20th century would seem to argue for increased, not
decreased, shifts in spring during our study period,
indicating that processes such as succession, changes in
community structure, land management, or disturbance
may be more important than previously recognized”
D. Patterson (14:18:25)
I’m not a warmer. As for comment two, I fell I can co-exist quite nicely with the dendrochronologists – and others in the same range.