Spring, sprang, sprung

Over on the EU Referendum, Richard North points out the absurdity of media coverage on the arrival of  spring. We’ve seen this before, for example at the Union of Concerned Scientists, they have this essay:

Early Warning Signs of Global Warming: Spring Comes Earlier

Even the daffodils are confused, though in that article the writer cites weather, not climate.

Here’s what North has noted about the confusion of the press:

Almost exactly three weeks ago, the press release queen, Louise Gray, was prattling about early springs as a result of global warming.

Fortunately for her, her kindly employer has spared her blushes, not requiring her to write the piece today, which tells us: “For those celebrating St David Day on Monday, there will be a noticeable absence of daffodils as the country’s growers say the cold snap has left their crops a month behind schedule.”

Britain’s “Arctic winter”, incidentally, was officially declared the coldest in 30 years “as parts of the country were lashed by gale force winds and torrential downpours.”

Strangely enough, almost exactly a year to the day, little Louise was writing under the headline, “Latest spring bloom at Kew for 20 years” – the strap reading: “After a succession of early spring blooms, flowers came out later this year than for 20 years because of the recent cold snap.”

Read the rest here at the EU Referendum

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Bill Marsh

Yep, My Daffodils still haven’t breached the surface yet. In prior years they are out of the ground in mid-Feb.
Just a side note about temps in the DC area. Jan high temps averaged 6.3F below the seasonal average, high temps in February averaged an ‘unprecedented’ 12F BELOW the seasonal average. Looking at Accuweather through mid-March we’re going to be at least 5-7F below average.

Henry chance

Since when did we need a warmist to tell us what spring is like? I sure don’t need one to tell me it is snowing. Yes it is difficult to cover the ground with snow and increase soil temps.

Patrick Davis

I can tell you one thing, if “spring” has arrived early up north, then winter has arrived early down under too.
I kid you not, it is cold here in Sydney, Australia tonight, 2 days into Autumn, and I think we had about 8 days of summer this year.

JonesII

Next sunday won´t be a spring day for sure.

Which part of “average” don’t you understand?

Stephen Wilde

The springs in the UK gradually and erratically came progressively earlier from 1975 to 2000 or thereabouts and then stopped getting earlier.
Since 2007 they have been coming progressively later.
In the space of four seasons we are now already back to a spring which promises to be later than for many a year and possibly will not have an equivalent until one looks back to the late 70’s.
The key is the predominating wind direction which is intimately connected to our latitudinal position relative to the mid latitude jet stream tracks.
Those tracks would appear to be dictated by the balance between oceanic temperatures affecting the width of the tropics and the activity level of the sun affecting the strength of the temperature inversion in the stratosphere which affects the strngth of the Arctic Oscillation.
The more active the sun the weaker the AO and vice versa.

Mark Nutley

You gotta love natures sense of humour 🙂

Phillip Bratby

I monitor spring in the SW of England by the start of mating activity of frogs in my pond. Last year they were a couple of weeks later than normal and this year they appeared last week, about a month later than normal.

CodeTech

I shake my head, and I wonder, “who is in denial?”
Late fall, early spring, cats and dogs living together… the world’s gone CRAZY!

DUH… if it supports AGW it’s climate, if it doesn’t it’s weather, what’s not to understand?
Now *some* people might think that’s a textbook case of confirmation bias, but *some* people also buy their gas from “big oil” and have homes powered by “big coal” so it’s safe to ignore their opinions.
/sarcoff

waramess

Trouble is you don’t understand the difference between weather and climate: weather getting colder but climate getting warmer. Now then, gettit

johnnythelowery

Patchy1 to Control tower: “Request permission to land L93R?”
Control Tower: “Negative Patchy1. permission denied”
Patchy1: “do you know who we are. i’ve got Patchy Morals on board.”
Control Tower: “we’ve run out of carbon credits and can’t except jets”
Patchy1: “No problem. He’ll just print some when he lands for you!”

Pascvaks

“Even the daffodils are confused….”
I can certify that daffodils are are ‘rarely’ confused. This is not their problem. When they sprout and bloom too early it’s the Sun what did it, and the absence of sufficient cloud cover. It’s always the Sun what did it! And I don’t care what Leif says what done it.

The ghost of Big Jim Cooley

Early springs could well be because of the increased amount of CO2 in the air, not warming.

Steve Schaper

I actually saw some ground by the side of the road where the massive amounts of basic metal salts lowered the melting point enough that sublimation caused the seasonal ice cap to withdraw a few inches.
We’ve had more than 70 days straight of more than 11″ of snow ground cover.

Christoph

Holy crap!?!
You mean it’s going to get warm soon?
I’m scared.

RichieP

It’s St. David’s Day today, the Welsh national saint’s day. We of the Cymru wear daffodils to celebrate – though I personally prefer the leek alternative, a symbol which you can eat and which, at need, can also be used as a weapon against the English (qv Shakespeare’s Henry V). The absence of the daffs is very noticeable and unusual, even here in extreme southern Britain (Sussex), though they are now starting to poke their greenery up a bit and should be out in a week or so I assume. A small matter forsooth, but how will farmers and agriculture fare as a result of this winter and the possibly non-barbecue summer? Is there anyone here who can enlighten me on this?

pat

Most obvious among the Warmists’ tactics, is the release of warming stories in spite of the reality around them. Hence we learn that 2009 was the warmest year on record, 1999-2009, the Warmest Decade In History, July 2009 the warmest July on record, and Spring now in early March. All of these assertions are patently false. All rely upon the perception of the reader that while they may be cold, that is a regional manifestation of AGW.

Icarus

This is puzzling – are we supposed to believe that one late spring somehow trumps 20 early ones (or whatever the figures are)?

Annei

Snowdrops are only now coming into full flower, ditto crocuses. Daffodils are barely visible here; the odd flower bud is just starting to show. There was ice on the water trough around midday, despite the sun. This is in the Cotswolds.
Louise is probably away in Fantasy Land.

johnh

Late spring together with warmest global Jan temp, doesn’t make sense unless there are record temps in southern hemisphere or some is telling porkies.

That’s funny. This week-end I was musing to the mate that we were certain to see a few articles on the delayed arrival of spring being due to global warming! I should have blogged on it.

Richard Heg

In the Irish prss today:
SPRING begins today, March 1, and, compared to its premature arrival over the past decade and a half, the natural world is awakening bang on time this year.
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/nature-is-springing-into-action—-bang-on-schedule-2084146.html
Offically it was the coldest winter since 1962/1963 in Ireland
http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/winter10.pdf

Mike

As you point out, the evidence for AGW just keeps piling up.
Science News
Warming has already boosted insect breeding
Museum records, publications suggest extra generations at same time as temperature increases
By Susan Milius
Web edition : Thursday, December 24th, 2009
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/51528/title/Warming_has_already_boosted_insect_breeding
From Reuters:
“January, according to satellite (data), was the hottest January we’ve ever seen,” said Nicholls of Monash University’s School of Geography and Environmental Science in Melbourne.
“Last November was the hottest November we’ve ever seen, November-January as a whole is the hottest November-January the world has seen,” he said of the satellite data record since 1979.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61O16A20100225

anna v

Well, weather depends on where you are, as well as climate.
In Greece around Athens we have had a mild winter ( no ice in the water barrel in the country cottage) and spring seems to have come early, unless a cold March kicks in ( has happened before). We got winds from the Sahara, accompanied by the desert red dust.Not enough rain to wash it away well.
Anemones bloomed in December ( not usual), almond trees are on course and even the pomegranate bush has started budding. Dandelions and rockets are blooming. Fortunately the other fruit trees, apricot and tangerine and lemon and olive have not budded yet. If a frost comes in March it will destroy the fruit.
The pine trees have started their pollen though . This is good, if rains come in March it will flush it all away and we will not get the yellow stuff all over the place.
Gionis, a night bird that winters in Egypt has come, so he is not expecting more cold. We have to see if the swallows come early.
On the other hand our summer was cool, practically naturally air conditioned so I suppose the average temperature will be constant.

Veronica

True. I’ve seen one measly bunch of half open daffodils, the snowdrops are still the big thing in the UK and they are a month late. The blackthorn is not in bloom in the hedgerows, and it is still bloody cold. The north of England and Scotland had substantial snow last week.
We have this popular TV programme called “Springwatch” and “Autumnwatch”. Not sure when this year’s Springwatch is about to start but one of the things they study is the phenological signs of first bumblebee, first ladybird (=ladybug) etc. across the UK. It will be interesting to see what data they collect this year. The 2010 website does not seem to be up and running yet.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/springwatch/

This essay is full of old, semi-scientific “news”!

Herman L

There’s a great deal of scientific literature that demonstrates an “a progressively earlier spring by about 2.3 to 5.2 days/decade in the last 30 years in response to recent climate warming.” (IPCC FAR, WG2, chapter 1, sections 1.3.5.1 “Changes in phenology”):
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch1s1-3-5-1.html
Table 1.8 “Changes in the timing of spring events” is particularly interesting reading.

George E. Smith

Well I don’t know about where he has been, but usually in Califonia, it is summertime by the time March comes around. The fruit trees usually all have done their blossom thing in Early february.
Well not this year; there’s nothing greening or blossoming here in the south bay; I’m still raking leaves, and berries from the liquid amber tree on my front lawn.
I don’t know what sort of trees they grow in heaven, But I can tell you that the streets of Hell, are lined with Liquid Amber trees. Also the streets of Sunnyvale. Another one of those; ” Hi I’m from the Government; and I’m here to help you !” projects.

Dr T G Watkins

For US readers, St. David is the Welsh patron saint and daffodils are our national flower (and the leak). For several years as we all know spring has been early and March 1st ,St David’s day, has been full of daffodils- not this year, only green shoots visible.
PS another great post from W.E.

TFN Johnson

I’ve never seen any archeaologist not claiming that Neolithic henge monuments were developed so that early farmers knew when to plant their crops. It’s always seemed more likely, to me at least, that they knew enough to plant their barley when the hawthorn [may]) blossom was out (or whatever).
Here in Leicestershire there is a old saying “ne’re cast a clout [item of clothing] til may is out”. I guess this originally referred to the above blossom, but is is now thought to refer to the month of May.

Mark.R

At what temp does sping start?.

kim

Ah, yes, April is the cruelest month.
==================

old44

Louise Gray typifies the eviron-mentalists. No matter what ridiculous prediction they make and are found wanting, it does not deter or embarass them, they just butter up again with another idiotic statement or repeat the one that just failed.

Robert Smith

Graph or line chart needed:
The increase of Antarctic sea ice is blamed on the Ozone Hole. However it is said the Ozone Hole is shrinking.
I can find a graph of the extent of the sea ice http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/s_plot_hires.png
but I cannot find an up to date graph or chart showing the extent of the Ozone Hole. (not the CFC concentrations)
The Ozone Hole graphs end in 2005.
The current graphs show the years on top of each other instead of consecutively. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/gif_files/ozone_hole_plot.png
Someone needs to make a graph going back in time as far as possible, showing the extent of the Ozone Hole and the extent of the Antarctic sea ice together to see if there is a relationship between the two as claimed.
Will someone here please plot this graph? I am not a scientist but I am seeking the truth in all these conflicting claims and these graphs are the most convincing.
Robert Smith
Wheaton Ill

CET spring 1660-2009 shows a trend of 0.270C /century
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/CET4.htm

Steve Goddard

As a soccer player and coach, it has become painfully clear in recent years that spring is coming later and later – with many games snowed out, and pleasant spring weather nearly non-existent. The same problem in the autumn with winter arriving earlier.

From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , “Philip D. Jones” , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies
baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).

Vincent

Richard North ended his peice with the words “The warmists have lost their grip on the “fear button”. They have been deprived of the one and only tool which could enable them to force through their agenda. The rest, like daffodils in spring, is only a matter of time.”
The truth is actually simpler. There never was a “fear button”, the alarmists only thought there was. They have been absurdly banging a big red button which is not even connected.
The reason is this. The public have little fear of natural events, and even less fear of hypothetical possible futures that might happen after they’ve died, any more than people fret over the much more frightening picture of old Sol becoming a red giant.
There is only so much fear that people can be aroused to feel, and this has always been aroused by occurrences much closer to home. At the closest level is the fear of actual attack by known individuals – persecution, blackmail or bullying. Beyond that are real economic fears; unemployment, credit destruction, years of “austerity programs.”
The “fear button” is perhaps more accurately a “guilt button.” And that’s all there ever was. Although people won’t be aroused to fear, they are much more easily aroused to guilt. However, after the disgraceful emotional blackmail tactics used by developing nations at Copenhagen, I would say the guilt trip has run its course.

Les Johnson

As for the purported early arrival of spring…at least in North America…
White, M.A., K.M. de Beurs, K. Didan, D.W. Inouye, A.D. Richardson, O.P. Jensen, J. O’Keefe, G. Zhang, R.R. Nemani, W.J.D. van Leeuwen, J.F. Brown, A. de Wit, M. Schaepman, X. Lin, M. Dettinger, A. Bailey, J. Kimball, M.D. Schwartz, D.D. Baldocchi, J.T. Lee, W.K. Lauenroth. Intercomparison, interpretation, and assessment of spring phenology in North America estimated from remote sensing for 1982 to 2006. Global Change Biology (in press).
We found no evidence for time trends in spring arrival from ground- or model-based data; using an ensemble estimate from two methods that were more closely related to ground observations than other methods, SOS trends could be detected for only 12% of North America and were divided between trends towards both earlier and later spring.
My emphasis.

Pingo

Phil Jones is currently being interrogated by MPs about his role in the Climategate Scandal. Unbelievably the first I heard about it was on the BBC. Graham Stringer MP (Manchester) was giving him a right grilling and Jones looked very ill and sickened by his role in the scandal IMO. I dread to think what his mental state is after he has been exposed as committing 20+ years of non-science.

gdfernan

Sorry for OT;
This sad story in the Daily Mail (UK) is very disturbing and shows how much the warming charlatans need to answer for.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1254619/Baby-girl-survives-shot-chest-parents-global-warming-suicide-pact.html?ITO=1490#ixzz0gw4V50ru

paullm

Temps 3-6 degrees below average (44F on 3/11) forecast for Cleveland through the next 10 days. I’ve got daffs breaking soil nearly yearlong – sometimes under 2′ of snow, for weeks! They’ve done that for at least 40 years. You see, once they get warmed by the sun on any day they poke up and then just try to get them to dive back under! Oh, and it might snow here in May, too. In those years I suppose, just to be an alarmist, I should really fret over Global Warming.

Richard111

We had one daffodil open yesterday, Sunday 28 February, here in Milford Haven.
Today has been warm, +9C, sunny and no wind. The local global cooling fan has not turned all day. I guess Spring has arrived.

Bill Marsh

RichieP (08:30:59) :
It’s St. David’s Day today, the Welsh national saint’s day. We of the Cymru wear daffodils to celebrate – though I personally prefer the leek alternative, a symbol which you can eat and which, at need, can also be used as a weapon against the English (qv Shakespeare’s Henry V). The absence of the daffs is very noticeable and unusual, even here in extreme southern Britain (Sussex), though they are now starting to poke their greenery up a bit and should be out in a week or so I assume. A small matter forsooth, but how will farmers and agriculture fare as a result of this winter and the possibly non-barbecue summer? Is there anyone here who can enlighten me on this?
==============
But hey, if the warmistas are right you’ll soon be raising grapes as far north as York.

Repeat a LIE, loud enough…long enough…eventually most people will believe it is the truth.
Source – Unknown…

John Bowman

If Spring keeps coming 11 days early, in about 33 years time it will be right back on schedule. However I think Spring is tricky, like Easter which is always early, or late, but never on time.
If Spring is arriving early, is it finishing early, or on time? If the former, are the other seasons moving up and may we look forward to Summer at Christmas?
How will this affect my birthday – will that start coming early too?
“So many questions; so little time,” said the March Hare.
“Quite right,” said Alice.

Rob

What do you mean a cold snap, it is a bloody cold long winter here in the UK.

Jason Bair

We’ve had snapdragons bloom year round here in the high deserts of CA. One baby daffodil sprouted last week.
Nothing out of the ordinary for flowers. I will note that we’re JUST now seeing trees start to bud. Kinda late for this area by a few weeks.

Ken

It has been warm this winter here in Portland Oregon thanks to El Nino. Our daffodils have been blooming for the past two weeks. I can’t say the same for our family members in Minnesota!

beng

I’d wager the reports of earlier spring come from urban/suburban areas. A good measure of UHI effects, which indeed could lengthen growing seasons by weeks.
Indication of anything other than local UHI effects, tho, it is not.