Headlines yesterday mentioned yet another new snowfall record: Moscow Covered by More Than Half Meter of Snow, Most Since 1966
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) — Moscow’s streets were covered by 53 centimeters (20.9 inches) of snow this morning after 15 centimeters fell in 24 hours, putting Russia’s capital on course for its snowiest February since at least 1966.
Workers cleared a record 392,000 cubic meters (13.8 million cubic feet) of snow over the 24-hour period that ended this morning as precipitation exceeded the average February amount by 50 percent, according to state television station Rossiya 24. The city had 64 centimeters of snow cover on Feb. 23, 1966, the previous record, Rossiya 24 said.
In a story from Russia’s news agency, TASS, they mention that:
This year’s February is quite unique from the meteorological point of view. Not a single thaw has been registered so far and the temperature remains way below the average throughout the month.
I guess the Mayor of Moscow’s “Canute like” promise back in October didn’t work out so well. From Time magazine:
Moscow Mayor Promises a Winter Without Snow
Pigs still can’t fly, but this winter, the mayor of Moscow promises to keep it from snowing. For just a few million dollars, the mayor’s office will hire the Russian Air Force to spray a fine chemical mist over the clouds before they reach the capital, forcing them to dump their snow outside the city. Authorities say this will be a boon for Moscow, which is typically covered with a blanket of snow from November to March. Road crews won’t need to constantly clear the streets, and traffic — and quality of life — will undoubtedly improve.
Before they were saying that increased winter snow is due to global warming, climate scientists were saying that decreased winter snow was due to global warming. As discussed already on WUWT, climate models predict declining winter snow cover. And a senior climate scientist predicted ten years ago :
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
There is no shortage of similar claims:
Decline in Snowpack Is Blamed On Warming Using data collected over the past 50 years, the scientists confirmed that the mountains are getting more rain and less snow http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/31/AR2008013101868.html
Many Ski Resorts Heading Downhill as a Result of Global Warming http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp?DocumentID=363&ArticleID=4313&l=en
The prediction below was particularly entertaining, given that it was made during Aspen’s all time snowiest winter.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
DENVER — A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow on lower slopes…. The study by two Colorado researchers says Aspen Mountain in Colorado and Park City in Utah will see dramatic changes even with a reduction in carbon emissions, which fuel climate change …. . Skiing at Aspen, with an average temperature 8.6 degrees higher than now, will be marginal. http://www.aspendailynews.com/section/home/131044
Global Warming Poses Threat to Ski Resorts in the Alps Climatologists say the warming trend will become dramatic by 2020
Global Warming Poses Threat to Ski Resorts in the Alps – New York Times
Himalayan snow melting in winter too, say scientists Himalayan snow melting in winter too, say scientists – SciDev.Net
Global warming ‘past the point of no return’ Friday, 16 September 2005 Global warming ‘past the point of no return’ – Science, News – The Independent
So what are they saying now?
Global Warming could equal massive snow storms Great Lakes and Global Warming could equal massive snow storms
Snow is consistent with global warming, say scientists Britain may be in the grip of the coldest winter for 30 years and grappling with up to a foot of snow in some places but the extreme weather is entirely consistent with global warming, claim scientists. Snow is consistent with global warming, say scientists – Telegraph
Climate Scientist: Record-Setting Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Linked to Global Warming
The Blizzard of 1996 does indeed qualify as one type of extreme weather to be expected in a warmer climate Blame Global Warming for the Blizzard – NYTimes.com
The great thing about global warming is that you can blame anything on it, and then deny it later.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Jay,
When this winter ends in four days, three of the top four snowiest winters in the Rutgers record will have been since in the last eight years. 2003, 2008 and 2010.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/asos/?map_type=avgtemp.dfn&format=.cont&begmonth=01&begday=1&endmonth=01&endday=31&years%5B%5D=2010&submitted=Animate+Selection
Do you see any indication that is leading towards a long term decline in snowfall?
Wrong link
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
Steve,
I am glad that you’ve decided the complete dataset from 1967 is worth looking at, as it does show a decline despite 4 above average years between 2000 and 2010 – which demonstrates why picking useful trends is difficult. I think we established earlier that trying forecast snow cover based on discerning trends from the recent past isn’t useful.
I was glad we agreed on that and hoped it might be a sign that we might get somewhere.
Therefore I’m not going to play at trying to discern a trend for the entire next century or even a little part of it based on 3 unusual years. I think to attempt do so would be clear folly. I’m surprised you have back tracked and now seem to think that this would represent competent analysis once more.
We do seem to be going around in circles.
Jay,
If you bothered to read my recent articles you would know that I have discussed the entire 44 years record, I have discussed the significance of focusing on the last 20 years, and I have discussed summer trends. Rather than listening to Tamino’s interpretation of what I have written, why don’t you read my writing – instead of making me repeat it?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/02/21/bringing-skillfull-observation-back-to-science/
Your claim that the trend is based on three years is nonsense. It is based on 20 years. Are you a lawyer? You keep changing tack and throwing out new misinterpretations.
BTW – Tamino takes cheap shots and then won’t let people respond. What do you think that is all about?
Steve,
No Steve, I’m, not a lawyer. If I’m changing track it is because I’m responding to your endless questions – which keep changing track every time I explain why I think your analysis doesn’t stack up.
You’ve already accepted that you have no skill at forecasting future snow cover. You can’t then go on to say that zero skill is sufficient skill to competently assess the usefulness of forecasts produced by models based on physical simulations.
There’s really not much more to say.
Jay,
If you had a stock broker who told you that a stock was going to go down over a twenty year period, and the stock actually went up, you would say that his prediction had failed. You do not have to be a stock analyst or have any skill at prediction to determine that you can’t trust that broker.
If someone told you that your loss of money was not “statistically significant” you would think they were an idiot. Your argument is specious and absurd.
This looks like an ideal location for a weather station:-
The worst snowstorm in six decades has wreaked havoc on northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region dumping 94 centimeters of snow at the Altay Weather Station, seen here on January 17, 2010.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/20/content_9349288.htm