From the Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. blog:
Henk Tennekes Resigns from Dutch Academy

Henk Tennekes is well known to the visitors of our website. A few days ago, he told me that he submitted a letter of resignation to the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences on Saturday, January 23. He wrote to me “I don’t want to remain a member of an organization that, like AMS and NAS, screws up science that badly.” The Dutch newspaper NRC-Handelsblad apparently got hold of a copy of the resignation letter and ran a News Flash on Saturday, January 30. In the letter to the Academy, Henk complains that he submitted the manuscript of his essay on Hermetic Jargon (which I am happy to reproduce here below, with his permission) to the Academy President at that time, Frits van Oostrom. The President, however, did not bother to respond. The NRC news flash, translated by Henk himself at my request, reads:
Tennekes Quits
By Karel Knip
“I have had it. Farewell.” With these words Henk Tennekes concludes his final letter to the Executive Board of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. He wrote his letter of resignation on January 23. A unique occurrence in the history of the Academy, which obtains its membership by co-optation. Normally, a member of the Academy loses his membership only when he dies. Tennekes is still alive.
For many years, Tennekes was director of research at KNMI. He also was a professor at the Pennsylvania State University and at the Free University in Amsterdam. In 1982 he became a member of the Academy. And now he steps out. “There is light out there” is the closing sentence of the essay “Hermetic Jargon” that he now gives a broader distribution.
Why quit? Is he mad about the global warming hype? Tennekes has often spoken up against alarmist language concerning the greenhouse effect and against the hubris of climatologists who pretend to know precisely what will happen to the climate in the future.
No, Tennekes uses the ultimate tool he has to object to the conflicts of interest within the Academy. It is supposed to be the highest independent scientific advisory body in the country, but at the same time it runs a number of research institutes, and has to lobby for their budgets. “That conflict of interest is breaking the wings of its advisory function,” he says. The Strategic Agenda of the Academy, currently being finalized, offers no hope for improvement.
Is that all? The essay “Hermetic Jargon” gives yet another impression. In it, he protests the inaccessibility of modern science, with its habit to restrict quality control (peer review) to the inner circles of each discipline. And he is annoyed by the dominant position of physics in the world of science. He wants to promote more dialogue between disciplines, but he discovered that the walls between them cannot be broken down. Stepping out is the final choice.
In response to our request Robbert Dijkgraaf, the current President of the Academy, states that the Academy regrets the departure, but respects it.
This picture will appear in the second printing of Simple Science of Flight by H. Tennekes, currently in press.
Hermetic Jargon
Farewell Message to the Dutch Academy
As soon as scientists and scholars from different disciplines talk to one another, confusion creeps in. In everyday language, words evoke clusters of associations, suggestions, hints and images. This is why an intelligent listener often needs only half a word. But the words that scientists use in their professional communications are usually safeguarded against unwanted associations. Within each separate discipline this helps to limit semantic confusion, but outsiders have no chance.
Disciplines are divided by their languages. Incomprehensible journal articles and oral presentations, ever-expanding university libraries, endless bickering over the appropriation of research funds, resources, and post-doc positions: The Temple of Science has become a Tower of Babel. A Babylonian confusion of tongues has become the organizing principle. As soon as more than a couple dozen scientists unite around the same theme, another specialist journal is created, comprehensible only to the in-crowd. If this is science, I want to get off.
Many years ago, two members of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences tried to call attention to the problem. One was the leading art historian and Director of the Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam, Henk van Os, the other the retired methodologist of the social sciences, Adriaan de Groot. The two elderly gentlemen arranged a discussion meeting on the peer review system at Academy headquarters. Being an Academy member myself, I eagerly participated. In their introduction van Os and de Groot explained how all disciplines have a tendency to develop their own ‘hermetic jargon,’ the secret language that eliminates the risk of having to discuss the foundations of one’s discipline with the outside world.
Hermetic jargon: what a beautiful neologism! Hermetic: referring to airtight sealing, my Random House dictionary says. Words are at their best when they seed a whole cloud of meanings and associations. In this case my mind reacted instantly, grasping at such concepts as occult science, alchemy, and esoteric writing. Esoteric, accessible to the initiated only, is the qualification given by the philosopher Lucian to some of Aristotle’s writings. Hermetic sealing was the standard laboratory practice of the alchemists. The net effect of hermetic jargon is that outsiders cannot argue with the high priests who wield the words. They can only accept the occult writings in awe.
Looking at the academic enterprise this way, I come across a lot of issues that bother me. The first that comes to mind is that hermetic jargon makes it impossible to conduct mature, scientific discussions of the paradigms, dogmas, and myths that drive each discipline. The claims of the mainstream physics community worldwide, for example, are outrageous. All science is Physics, period, is what these priests claim. All other disciplines, including chemistry, biology, engineering and the earth sciences, are mere derivatives. Physicists glorify their Nobel prizes without ever contemplating whether the Nobel prize system might be based on a nineteenth-century assessment of the world of science. Hermetic jargon is also a very effective means of excluding outsiders from negotiations for research funds. The system by which professional colleagues judge each other’s performance is called Peer Review. Only peers in the same discipline may pass judgment on their colleagues’ funding requests and on the quality of their papers. Only high-energy physicists are allowed to participate in debates concerning the funding of high-energy physics, only micrometeorologists are allowed to review micrometeorological manuscripts. This makes a lot of sense, of course, because outsiders are in no position to judge the intricate technical details of the measurements and calculations involved. But such judgment is only a necessary first step. The key challenge for a meaningful peer review system would be to make explicit the underlying paradigms, and to subject them to scholarly scrutiny. This, to me, should be the essence of the duty of a National Academy, and perforce of each Academician.
Chances for a mature dialogue will improve when hermetic jargon is taken for what it really is: a way to defend barriers. There are plenty of unresolved issues and dilemmas in the interstices between the disciplines. Almost nobody dares to take a peek, but Gregory Bateson, the originator of the Kantian idea that Mind and Nature form a Necessary Unity, did. Angels Fear is the title of the book his daughter Margaret compiled after he died. The subtitle of that beautiful but rather messy book is Towards an Epistemology of the Sacred. The term ‘sacred’ should not be construed as referring to theology, but to the central problem of all epistemology: how can we know anything, how can we evaluate, who are we to make judgments? In Kant’s own words: “Reason suffers the fate of being troubled by questions which it cannot reject because they were brought up by reason itself, but which it cannot answer either because they are utterly beyond its capacities.” Yes, only fools rush in where angels fear to tread.
In oral presentations, to give another example, it would behoove the speaker to speak openly about the questions looming behind the research successes, behind the never-ending propaganda for scientific progress. I myself tried this a few times, but to no avail. In my induction speech for the Academy, in January 1984, I introduced the limited predictability of the weather as a prime example of the uncertainties associated with the sensitive dependence of nonlinear systems to initial conditions and to mismatches between Nature and the models we use to compute its evolution. I told my audience that the prediction horizon, in 1950 estimated by John von Neumann at 30 days, in fact is only three days on average. I dwelt only a little on the implications of this for the myth of endless progress in science. Apparently, meteorology is approaching the no-man’s land between the unknown and the unknowable, I said. This was enough to alert the cognoscenti. The moment the discussion period following my lecture started, the famous astronomer Henk van de Hulst stood up from his chair in the front row and said: “Henk, that is a sermon, not a lecture. Sermons are not appropriate in this Hall.” And the President, David de Wied then, closing the meeting and thanking me for my speech, said in front of the microphones: “Henk, I really don’t understand what you said, and I believe I don’t want to understand either.”
The two Academy members who had arranged the meeting on peer review apparently had concluded that voluntary changes in the peer review system were very unlikely. They opted for a direct confrontation. They proposed to amend the review system such that a number of colleagues outside the discipline concerned would have to participate in the evaluation of proposals for research funding and debates on the desired direction of research programs. Ask psychologists to look over the shoulders of meteorologists, involve theologians in the evaluation of astronomical long-term planning, let sociologists and engineers review each other’s professional papers, and so on. As soon as you do that, hermetic jargon loses the rationale for its existence.
It shall come as no surprise that these thoughts were torpedoed the moment they reverberated through the august Academy assembly hall. Everyone knew instantly the very idea was a land mine under the science establishment. Nobody understood that the proposal was rather modest in the sense that bureaucrats, politicians, and taxpayers would be excluded, and that the proposal in fact could be construed as reinforcing the power of the scientific nomenclature. The current practice is that spokesmen for each discipline negotiate directly with bureaucrats in government agencies, and refuse to be drawn into evaluations of the claims of other disciplines.
So all hell broke loose, right there in the meeting, the scene suddenly similar to that in a typical Knesset session, with Academicians jumping up, shouting, and cursing. Within half an hour, the President of the Academy, Pieter Drenth this time, stepped in, stating ex cathedra that the current review system was functioning well enough, despite minor flaws. He closed the meeting, and the Executive Board of the Academy decided to abort the idea altogether.
Following in the footsteps of van Os and de Groot, I have tried to fantasize about the fierce battles that might result if their proposal were put into effect. The central myth of cosmology and astrophysics, for example, is that the human mind is more powerful than the Universe. Stephen Hawking writes: when we discover a theory that unifies gravity and quantum mechanics, we will (I shudder as I write this) “know the Mind of God.” Martin Rees, then the Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom, wrote a book called Before the Beginning, subtitled Our Universe and Others. Indeed, it has become common in astronomy to talk about Multiple Universes, an oxymoron if I ever saw one. Unfortunately, mainstream theology continues to propagate a similar myth, i.e. the stupid idea that one can talk with insight, and write scholarly publications, about God himself. That, in my mind, is an unforgivable epistemological fallacy. Readers not versed in the Bible might find it useful to read the story of Moses stumbling into a psychedelic thorn bush in Exodus 3. Moses hears voices and asks: “please tell me your Name, so I can tell my people who sent me.” The Voice answers: “I am whoever I want to be, that should be good enough for you.”
Being an engineer myself, I would be delighted to participate in a debate between engineers and sociologists. In both cases, the interaction between the discipline and society is central to the field of inquiry. Take cell phones. The technology is straightforward, but the sociology is complex. Engineers are servants to society. Their work, which uses physics, chemistry, and countless other disciplines, ought to be analyzed by sociologists. I confess that I know no sociology to speak of, but I know enough about engineering to claim that something must be amiss if the best book on technology I know of is Pirsig’s Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.
As to my own position, I can illustrate that with another incident at the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences. I was elected into the Academy in 1982, and assigned to a small group of scholars not bound to a specific discipline, the Free Section. This group was the envy of several others, because the much coveted expansion of disciplinary sections was hindered by our presence. There were 100 chairs in the Science Division at the time, and several other sections claimed to need more. The powers behind the scenes argued long enough for the Executive Board to cave in to the demands to eliminate the Free Section, and lodge its members into disciplines. I was tentatively assigned to the physics section, which did not appeal to me at all. So I wrote to the then President, Piet van Zandbergen, saying that one could imagine putting me in the Engineering Section because I was raised as an engineer, in the Physics Section because my area of expertise is turbulence theory, which is a branch of theoretical physics, and in Earth Sciences, because that would correspond to my current position. Instead, I wrote, I would prefer to be assigned to the Theology and Philosophy Section because of my growing interest in epistemology. The President, eager to avoid any written record of the nuisance I had created, called me one night by phone, saying: “Henk, philosophy belongs to the Arts and Humanities Division of the Academy. The division between them and the Science Division is laid down in our Charter. You cannot cross that Wall however much you want to. That Wall cannot be breached.”
But one can step outside. I did. There is light out there.

40 Shades of Green (09:20:25) wrote:
“He does not mention climate sciene at all.”
———————————————————
He didn’t have to.
The solution to hermetic jargon is something called technoscience.
Technoscience is a concept widely used in the interdisciplinary community of science and technology to designate the importance of broad technological and social “networks” in the proper understanding and application of scientific knowledge in society.
IMHO, this blog is an excellent example of technoscience. Keep up the good work Anthony!
George
As you mention epistemology:The term ‘sacred’ should not be construed as referring to theology, but to the central problem of all epistemology: how can we know anything, how can we evaluate, who are we to make judgments?
It makes me remind the phrase at the pronaos of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi γνῶθι σεαυτόν, so I would recommend you to read the book “Fragments of an unknown Teaching-In Search for the Miraculous” of P.D.Ouspensky
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/archivos_pdf/search_miraculous.pdf
I have been watching the development of Arctic sea ice indicated by the JAXA graph above in the right column. Since the beginning of the year there has been, on my screen and I assume yours, a random red dot evident in the mid-February time frame…a tiny piece of graph line standing alone among the ice extent lines for past years. Red, of course, is the color of the 2010 ice extent line. I now note that the developement of the 2010 ice extent will come very close to that red dot that has been there since the first of the year. In fact, it appears that it may just meet the red dot precisely. Is this random? How is it possible that the red dot just happens to be on the path of 2010 ice development? Any thoughts?
Interesting. I vividly recall the first Seminar of my MSc. The lecturer presented us with a text that was meant to highlight a central issue in the subject (IR), which turned out to be the exclusionary nature of the language used.
Only problem, the essay was wrote in the most impenetrable prose imaginable, that even new graduates couldn’t follow.
Outstanding discussion points. Maybe it is fundamentally time to question “science” and why we are in this profession. Why did we become scientists? Was our goal as children, interested in science, to become journal authors or constantly pursue grants? Was it to be political advocates? What has happened to that original scientific desire to learn, study and try to make sense of the world?
The real world instance of Climate Science known as AGW bears more semblance of superstition than it does a scientific discipline.
How so? It is based upon things everybody can see, feel, measure in part if not entirely. And the information is easily transferrable. Talk to me about weather (heat, wind, cold, rain & snow, etc.) and I can relate immediately.
Hermetic sealing of climate as not weather comes with it’s own self-destruct mechanism.
It imploded. Some saw it coming and ran for it while the getting was good.
Others got singed. Some are found stuck to the contraption as it goes off.
Not a pretty sight.
So, whomever is not beating feet as this is written, please follow the 9th and 10th steps of the old Civil Defense procedure poster.
Yee-Haw !!
Not one member of the Royal Society resigned (or, AFAIAA, even protested) when this statement http://royalsociety.org/News.aspx?id=1521&terms=channel+4 was issued by Lord Rees, the RS’s president in 2007. Lord Rees, in his inimitable de haut en bas mode stated – of AGW sceptics – that “those who promote fringe scientific views but ignore the weight of evidence are playing a dangerous game.”
Respect.
I have one quibble though. Everything, in the final analysis, is physics.
Henk Tennekes doesn’t understand “hermetic jargon”. It refers to the Hermeticists or alchemists who only wrote in code understandable to others in their school. This is why much of the early science in Europe cannot be interpreted, i.e. it is still in code nobody understands. See http://i34.tinypic.com/2cp2a0x.jpg for some examples of sigils. There are many papers dedicated to extracting early European chemistry from experimental notes. This is one of the reasons Francis Bacon was so eager to require open confession of methods and even faults in the research.
Nice resignation, but, I’m just saying….this is an old problem.
This article some how made me think about some of the points Steve McIntyre made about the difference between due diligence in the corporate securities ‘paradigm’, tied in with the idea of making a comlpex company understandable or at least superficially simpler to evaluate to a special variety of layman (ie through prospectus), and this current mode of academic science. Perhaps it would be worth exploring the idea that the shareholders (read: taxpayers) of scientific research institutes should demand better accountability for their dollars through an adapted corporate liability and disclosure scheme. Which in many ways is a waste of time and energy but certainly much less of a waste than propagating poor, dangerous scholarship on public dime.
“Immediately underneath it is an embedded (?) video for Scientology with light emerging in the distance dispelling the darkness, and the word ’scientology.org’. Is this a sick prank by miffed members of the Dutch academy or what?”
Nothing nefarious. Just a randomly inserted Google ad based on parsing the last sentence of text.
Henk Tennekes is a great man who knows the importance of integrity, objectivity and independence, especially in the field of science and one of the few who is willing to fight for it.
For a person with his stature and integrity, he had no other choice but to resign.
It’s the lack of integrity, objectivity and independence that has brought is in the mess of AGW in the first place.
Unfortunately, the academic and political climate in the Netherlands has turned rotten beyond repair.
Robbert Dijkgraaf, the current President of the Academy, states that the Academy regrets the departure, but respects it.”
Dijkgraaf “regrets” but “respects”!
But what he should have done is call for a crises meeting and clean up the mess.
Instead the academic scene is glad they got rid of him.
I think they have made a very big mistake.
Hermetic Jargon is not just a problem in science. It is rife in all disciplines from art to stockbroking. It is a sloppy habit that obstructs the mind from thinking outside of its particular box.
Hermetic jargon goes hand-in-hand with hermetic thinking which leads to social and economic disaster such as the Enron Scandal, the Sub-prime mortgage debacle and the AGW boondoggle.
…reminds me of the ending of a famous nursery rhyme…
“Ashes, Ashes, we all fall down!!”
Every day is drips & drabs! I saw a fantastic speech by Dr. Lindzen at Fermilab about this, and will post the link to the video archive when it is posted. Refer to http://www.fnal.gov “colloquia” for more information on his presentation (the abstract was posted).
@JDN “Henk Tennekes doesn’t understand “hermetic jargon”. It refers to the Hermeticists or alchemists who only wrote in code understandable to others in their school. This is why much of the early science in Europe cannot be interpreted, i.e. it is still in code nobody understands.”
That is exactly what he is saying. “…words that scientists use in their professional communications are usually safeguarded against unwanted associations. Within each separate discipline this helps to limit semantic confusion, but outsiders have no chance.” “The Temple of Science has become a Tower of Babel. ”
For example, incestuous peer review has narrowed their power of critique to nearly useless. He says (paraphrasing) “bring in some social scientists – if they can’t make sense of the paper, it needs to be rewritten.”
The good news is that there is light out here. The Web allows a wide variety of people to look at science – provided the scientists are open with their data and methods. But they have not been open and, oddly enough, that was one of the first things that the public noticed.
The future is looking brighter. Publishing in obscure, expensive journals can no longer be tolerated as the sole means by which scientists communicate. If I were Elsevier, I would be looking for a new paradigm.
theduke (09:55:14) :
40 Shades of Green (09:20:25) wrote:
“He does not mention climate sciene at all.”
———————————————————
He didn’t have to.
——————————-
Reply:
Actually, I believe Dr. Tennekes did mention “climate science”, albeit in an indirect way considering the time and setting. Read the following paragraph in his resignation letter above:
“In oral presentations, to give another example, it would behoove the speaker to speak openly about the questions looming behind the research successes, behind the never-ending propaganda for scientific progress. I myself tried this a few times, but to no avail. In my induction speech for the Academy, in January 1984, I introduced the limited predictability of the weather as a prime example of the uncertainties associated with the sensitive dependence of nonlinear systems to initial conditions and to mismatches between Nature and the models we use to compute its evolution. I told my audience that the prediction horizon, in 1950 estimated by John von Neumann at 30 days, in fact is only three days on average. I dwelt only a little on the implications of this for the myth of endless progress in science. Apparently, meteorology is approaching the no-man’s land between the unknown and the unknowable, I said. This was enough to alert the cognoscenti. The moment the discussion period following my lecture started, the famous astronomer Henk van de Hulst stood up from his chair in the front row and said: “Henk, that is a sermon, not a lecture. Sermons are not appropriate in this Hall.” And the President, David de Wied then, closing the meeting and thanking me for my speech, said in front of the microphones: “Henk, I really don’t understand what you said, and I believe I don’t want to understand either.”
Of course, 1984 was pretty much before “climatology” was much more than wishful thinking by some politicized intellectuals; yet even today “climate scientist” is akin to “meteorologist”. Indeed, most ivory towers of academia place courses on climatology in the geography department; some group it with meteorology. I know of no masters or doctorate degree awarded in “climate science” or “climatology” anywhere in the world.
Hence, when Henk was lambasting their insular attitudes, the president of the organization, de Wied, made a statement that proved Henk 100% correct by saying he could care less and didn’t want illumination. That attitude continues to this day in climatology and every other scientific discipline I can think of. So a sermon is exactly what they need.
rbateman (10:10:57) : Great!. We are watching the long waited “turn of the screw”, changing times, interesting times and hopeful too.
@ur momisugly CRS, Dr.P.H. (10:31:04): Good heads up. That abstract is a bit hard to find, so let me repeat it here:
The Peculiar Issue of Global Warming
Richard Lindzen, MIT
(February 10, 2009 at the Fermi Lab Colloquium)
I will briefly discuss why this is a peculiar issue, and illustrate this with various examples of how the issue is being exploited and portrayed. In particular, I will show how much of the science and phenomenology being presented is contradicted by both logic and data. Although there is a profound disconnect between the commonly cited IPCC conclusion and the various projections of catastrophe, it is nonetheless worthwhile to examine the basis for the IPCC attribution of recent warming to man because the arguments are profoundly at odds with normative scientific logic. Even so, the claimed result, itself, is consistent with low, and hence unworrisome, climate sensitivity. This talk will discuss how one can ascertain the sensitivity. Most approaches are faulty in that they use observed temperature behavior and assume its cause. We show how this trap can be avoided. There are several approaches, and they each lead to the conclusion that current models are substantially exaggerating sensitivity. However, because of the peculiar nature of this issue, it seems unlikely that either this or the evidence of data mishandling will serve to diminish the commitment of many individuals to the seriousness of the alleged problem.
In a word: “Yup.”
A very similar theme is found in an article from Production Engineering:
http://flashfictionpost.wordpress.com/2010/02/12/beware-the-wrath-of-abibarshim/
It read to me like a very grumpy contrarian, especially his claims that science groups purposely create words to exclude others (and his long gripes about the academy, and wanting to have been in the theology side instead of science).
An interesting and enlightening letter, and somewhat amusing as well – because it describes a problem in terms that many businesspeople and any entrepreneur is instantly familiar with: selling and being sold. I’ve spend a great deal of time on both sides of that particular equation, and its dynamics have been thoroughly explored in our world. There are a nearly infinite number of examples of functional and dysfunctional selling practices and associated ramifications. In many of the dysfunctional examples, buyers and sellers form “conspiracies” of poor behavior in order to avoid uncomfortable truths and confrontations. These “conspiracies” are almost never explicit or even necessarily malicious – they’re simply actors on both sides engaging in learned behaviors that allow them to complete the transaction with their asses covered and all potential unpleasantness swept neatly under the rug. The problems that inevitably occur are blamed on “the process” (sound familiar yet?) and from an official standpoint, nobody’s at fault.
The great salespeople are (counter-intuitively) the ones that do the exact opposite – they not only keep the potential problems in broad daylight, they actively search out more of them and expose as many as possible up-front. This allows them to find the most appropriate solution, and often find additional solutions to service their clients as well. They end up with successful projects, and often make more money in the process because they’ve expanded the scope of the engagement. The client gets exactly what they want, almost always at a better value for their time and money. As businesses grow, this process becomes more and more difficult – the political costs of discussing problems tends to be greater.
Mr. Tennekes is very close to the solution – bringing in folks from other disciplines is a great start, but if one really wants to shake out the BS they should bring in some successful small business owners. For them, cutting through bad theory isn’t just a matter of being embarrassed in a journal down the road – it’s a matter of life and death for their enterprise. One either develops this survival skill or their endeavors perish…
When I was studying Economics, I often pondered the potential if related disciplines (psychology, sociology, etc) were brought into the conversation. Much like Climate Science, Economics is by its very nature a soft science due to the complexity of what you’re studying… but there are intersections with other disciplines everywhere, and anyone who says they’ve got all the bases covered with GCMs is just as full of it as the people who think they’ll be able to predict the economy just a soon as the computers get fast enough.
For those who know Economics, you might say that the big variable is the human element, and that does not exist as an unmeasurable/unknowable variable for Climate Science. If you really think that, take a closer look at those GCMs… cooling/shading by particulates is a big part of the reasoning for sensitivity to CO2 being set so high, and a big part of the future warming scenarios in the GCMs is due to projections that CO2 output will continue to grow while particulates will be constrained, compounding the future warming. The same applies to land use, which is currently a net cool forcing on the environment – less deforestation in the future is projected which makes the warming from CO2 worse. So… were these variables in the projections supported by solid research from political, economic and environmental policy scientists(?)
I would suggest that future behavior of people in regards to environment is probably more chaotic than any of the RC/IPCC crowd really thinks – and that says nothing of the rest of the science behind their models
It won’t be a surprise that this very academy will lead the investigation and re-evaluation of the science into the UN IPCC/Climategate AR-4 developments!
It’s a kind of weird but I already know the outcome!
The reality is much worse than reported in AR-4, we must act immediately!