Climate ‘Tipping Points’ May Arrive Without Warning, Says Top Forecaster
From a UC Davis press release
A new University of California, Davis, study by a top ecological forecaster says it is harder than experts thought to predict when sudden shifts in Earth’s natural systems will occur — a worrisome finding for scientists trying to identify the tipping points that could push climate change into an irreparable global disaster.
“Many scientists are looking for the warning signs that herald sudden changes in natural systems, in hopes of forestalling those changes, or improving our preparations for them,” said UC Davis theoretical ecologist Alan Hastings. “Our new study found, unfortunately, that regime shifts with potentially large consequences can happen without warning — systems can ‘tip’ precipitously.
“This means that some effects of global climate change on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic. By that point returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible.”
The current study focuses on models from ecology, but its findings may be applicable to other complex systems, especially ones involving human dynamics such as harvesting of fish stocks or financial markets.
Hastings, a professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy, is one of the world’s top experts in using mathematical models (sets of equations) to understand natural systems. His current studies range from researching the dynamics of salmon and cod populations to modeling plant and animal species’ response to global climate change.
In 2006, Hastings received the Robert H. MacArthur Award, the highest honor given by the Ecological Society of America.
Hastings’ collaborator and co-author on the new study, Derin Wysham, was previously a postdoctoral scholar at UC Davis and is now a research scientist in the Department of Computational and Systems Biology at the John Innes Center in Norwich, England.
Scientists widely agree that global climate change is already causing major environmental effects, such as changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, droughts, heat waves and wildfires; rising sea level; water shortages in arid regions; new and larger pest outbreaks afflicting crops and forests; and expanding ranges for tropical pathogens that cause human illness.
And they fear that worse is in store. As U.S. presidential science adviser John Holdren (not an author of the new UC Davis study) recently told a congressional committee: “Climate scientists worry about ‘tipping points’ … thresholds beyond which a small additional increase in average temperature or some associated climate variable results in major changes to the affected system.”
Among the tipping points Holdren listed were: the complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in summer, leading to drastic changes in ocean circulation and climate patterns across the whole Northern Hemisphere; acceleration of ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, driving rates of sea-level increase to 6 feet or more per century; and ocean acidification from carbon dioxide absorption, causing massive disruption in ocean food webs.
The new UC Davis study, “Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning,” was supported by the Advancing Theory in Biology program at the U.S. National Science Foundation and was published online today by the journal Ecology Letters, in its Early View feature: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/123276879/abstract.
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FYI The image is by Anthony, and of course, it’s a spoof.
It seems Holdren forgot to include record snowfall on his list of “major environmental effects.”
Oh, wait, never mind, snow is just weather, and it’s cold stuff. No biggie.
Logical error, cannot compute…
If we ALL die, no one will be left to hate us, no need to worry, rest in peace 🙂
Actually, the curious thing is that most of what the press release says is fairly true-to-the-evidence. This is mostly because it leaves logical gaps that go unnoticable by its intended audience: it does not say what is causing the ‘climate change,’ nor whether its warming, cooling or whatever.
Consider these claims:
1. Sudden changes in climate are hard to predict.
AGREE – that’s the problem, we dont know enough yet.
2. Some effects of global climate change on ecosystems can be seen only once the effects are dramatic.
AGREE
3.Once a dramatic change has occurred then returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible.
AGREE – we havent found the thermostat control dial just yet.
4.’Scientists widely agree that global climate change is already causing…[changes in climate]’
Let’s change this to: Climate change means long-term changes in weather, and climate change is happening now – it always happens.
AGREE
5.Climate scientists worry about ‘tipping points’
AGREE!
This is a clever marketing double game where the gaps in the logic are filled by the reader as visually with a gestalt. The more common gap is between a.) that there is climate change and b.) that we are causing it. David King’s op-ed in a previous post stuffed this up by making the gap too obvious when he said
Our society is not so different from the ancients. They had their augers who predicted most dire outcomes if you didn’t give them money, and they were right, there were disasters and they were predicted, and if only the augers had been believed and given more money to placate the weather gods, …
In the 1960s, the climate community augured the ice and divined the Camp Century Cycles and foretold “ooooh …. there shall be a period of cooling”.
And when in the 1970s the climate started warming, they said: “ooooohhh, there is a greater god than the Camp Century Cycle God, it’s name is CO2 warming, and we foretell warming, and unless you give us money to placate the weather god there shall be more warming and you shall all be damned”.
And when it starts cooling, they will look at the auguries again and divine that the CO2 god is surpassed by one even greater god, who has even worse retribution, and demands even more sacrifice to placate that god.
Dave UK (03:50:30) : BBC Headline from last night,
‘Spring is coming earlier every year’ and ‘ Global warming could be the cause’
What the BBC fail to mention is that the research behind that announcement was apparently for the period 1976 – 2005 (h/t EU Referendum) – which makes it climate news from half a decade ago.
Nobody seems to have noticed the following line under the Abstract:
Does this set a new record for the fastest peer review ever?
Adapt and survive. Adapt to what nature throws our way instead of trying to change it to suit us.
We will always lose to superior forces, especially those of such magnitudes that drive this planets systems.
The enviromentalcases think that the louder and more hysterically they scream the more receptive we will become.
Wrong on all counts.
Hastings, a professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy, is one of the world’s top experts in using mathematical models (sets of equations) to understand natural systems. His current studies range from researching the dynamics of salmon and cod populations to modeling plant and animal species’ response to global climate change.
This guy is as far away from being an ecologist as one can get. Ecology was so heavily co-opted in the ’60s right out of the gate as a legitimate biological pursuit that the use of the term should be banned entirely. “Top ecological forecaster”? What the hell is that? Fancy term for “soothsayer”? The fact the department is called the “Dept of Environmental Science and Policy” should sound the gong right there. Spin, 1; credibility, 0; authenticity, not even being measured.
Computer models being used to determine that tipping points can happen at any time and cause dramatic changes? Could just be bugs in their software.
Over Taxed Tipping Point Has Arrived.
Anything that can go wrong already has, you’re just not aware of it yet!
– The tipping point they were worried about…it’s already too late, they were too busy playing with models.
If there are two or more ways to do something, and one of those ways can result in a catastrophe or pregnancy, then someone will do it.
– The tipping point has been reached, we don’t know which one for it leaves no discernible traces, and some damn fool has already figured out how to do exactly the opposite, resulting in a catastrophe of pregnant climate.
An excellent summary of political leaders ignoring Climategate is here:
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/ignoring–climategate–15339?page=all
I agree with “newposter” and others. It’s unlikely in the extreme that
(1) the climate has been walking the razor’s edge for millions of years;
(2) meteor strikes; super-volcanos; and heaven knows what else have not pushed it over the edge; AND
(3) Putting CO2 into the atmosphere which CO2 was there previously will push the climate over the edge.
“North St. Paul City Manager Wally Wysopal says, “it’s been a little embarrassing to have it not turning on the windiest of days.”
I drive by the N. St. Paul windmill about once a week, and I have never seen it turn, even when its around the freezing point. I think a political tipping point may have been reached where this large stationary statue is now seen every day as a monument to government incompetence. EPIC FAIL
Would the climategate emails be considered a political tipping point?
“His current studies range from researching the dynamics of salmon and cod …”
He is therefore eminently qualified to produce this
piece of codswallop that passeth all understanding
To: Michael (00:30:49) :
Re: I’m trying to find the scene where the British horses were going to trample the people and the people laid down on the ground. The horses knew instinctively and spiritually not to trample people.
The horses were poorly trained. In the Medieval era, or even during the Norman conquest, the people would have been hoof pies.
At the risk of conflating this odd story, it should be noticed that Derin Wysham, up in Norwich, could be using brown stuff for brains.
http://www.gardeningdata.co.uk/soil/john_innes/john_innes.php
Oh fertilizer!!
Now…..if we can only find some way to get people to start buying “tipping insurance,” we’ll live like kings!
My son is convinced there are crocodiles under his bed.
Although we have no evidence for them (and I can promise you, we do continue to keep an eye out for them), the harsh reality is that nobody can rule out crocodiles under his bed as a real physical possibility.
If he puts his foot out of the bed through the night and gets bitten by a crocodlle, it’s gonna be painful.
“Doctor of Philosophy” aka PhD means nothing anymore. I’m sorry to be the umteenth million repeater of this little trite fact, but it is true; especially if you live on a planet named Earth in what is there referred to as the beginning of the 21st Century Anno Domini or The Common Era.
Life on this out of the way speck of dust is not too bad, the climate is generally OK, but the carbon units infesting planet Earth are having far too good a time and, as a result, their educations are suffering severely.
Clarence! Clarence! Where is he?
Yes Sir!
Clarence, since we sent you to Earth to help poor George Bailey things have gotten much worse down there and we need to send you back.
Yes Sir.
Now this is what we want you to do….
OT
It’s worse than we thought …
If the BBC can’t frighten us by telling us about temperature anomalies or sea level changes then perhaps they can do it by telling us that our satnav systems will be going on the blink during the next solar maximum. [Of course we don’t know when that will be, but isn’t it best to be prepared?]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8494225.stm
“So what these two genius forecasters from U.C. Davis have forecast is that the future is unpredictable.
Who would have thought that? ”
———————
Who is stupid enough to pay people for that sort of information? “We predict that the future is unpredictable, BUT we know enough to claim that something MIGHT happen!”
Yeah, even I could do that job, but would be far too embarrassed to ask for a fee for such utterly ridiculous and meaningless information.
There’s one aspect of this article which is absolutely correct and I would like to congratulate the authors on this point:
“returning the system to a desirable state will be difficult, if not impossible.”
T-point reached, says Big Al’s MSM.
…-
“Washington hammered by new snowstorm
“a city already paralyzed by near-historic levels of snowfall”
>>> “Since Friday, the U.S. capital and surrounding areas have seen as much snow as normally falls in a year.”
http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/02/10/us-dc-storm.html
This Top Ecological forecaster has reached his tipping point.
His report just has been flushed and his career is hanging by a threat.
It’s not looking good.