Andrew Bolt of the Herald Sun digs up another issue with non peer reviewed World Wildlife Fund reports in the IPCC AR4. It turns out a new paper in GRL handily disputes the cause of the drought.
He writes:
Melbourne University alarmist David Karoly once claimed a rise in the Murray Darling Basin’s temperatures was “likely due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human acitivity” and:
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd grabbed the scare and exploited it:
BRENDAN Nelson was yesterday accused of being “blissfully immune” to the effects of climate change after he said the crisis in the Murray-Darling Basin was not linked to global warming…
In parliament yesterday, Kevin Rudd attacked Dr Nelson, accusing him of ignoring scientific facts.
“You need to get with the science on this,” the Prime Minister said. “Look at the technical report put together by the CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology.”
But the latest evidence shows that Rudd and Karoly were wrong. In fact, there’s no evidence in the Murray Darling drought of man-made warming, says a new study in Geophysical Research Letters, this new study:
Previous studies of the recent drought in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) have noted that low rainfall totals have been accompanied by anomalously high air temperatures. Subsequent studies have interpreted an identified trend in the residual timeseries of non-rainfall related temperature variability as a signal of anthropogenic change, further speculating that increased air temperature has exacerbated the drought through increasing evapotranspiration rates. In this study, we explore an alternative explanation of the recent increases in air temperature. This study demonstrates that significant misunderstanding of known processes of land surface – atmosphere interactions has led to the incorrect attribution of the causes of the anomalous temperatures, as well as significant misunderstanding of their impact on evaporation within the Murray-Darling Basin…
However, to accept the correlation [between temperature and rainfall] as the sole basis for the attribution of cause to human emissions is to implicitly assume that the correlation represents an entirely correct model of the sole driver of maximum air temperature. This is clearly not the case.
What’s causing the evaporation and temperatures is not (man-made) warming. It’s kind of the other way around: more sunshine, through lack of cloud cover, and lack of rain and therefore evaporation is causing higher temperatures.
And guess which scandal-ridden and alarmist IPCC report relied on Karoly’s claims? Reader Baa Humbug:
Karoly was cited very extensively in the AR4 WG1 paper.e.g. Chapter 9 9.4.2.3 Studies Based on Indices of Temperature Change and Temperature-Precipitation Relationships.”Studies based on indices of temperature change support the robust detection of human influence on continental-scale land areas. Observed trends in indices of North American continental scale temperature change, (including the regional mean, the mean land-ocean temperature contrast and the annual cycle) were found by Karoly et al. (2003) to be generally consistent with simulated trends under historical forcing from greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols during the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, they find only a small likelihood of agreement with trends driven by natural forcing only during this period.
Warm waters near Australia bringing rain. Cold seas indeed:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Jones II said: “A hacker will tell us your real name..that will be the “Gates’ Gate”☺
Is this suppose to scare me? Not quite sure what your point here is? How is this related climate issues?
I recall vividly, learning about Australia in middle school (in the early 70’s) that the “only” river system in Southern Australia was the Murray-Darling – and that the flows in Murray-Darling were intermittent and it was often dry, and unreliable for irrigation or use as a water supply.
We were also taught at that time that the ice age was coming, soon.
Dugetit (10:23:50) :
Interesting link. Forget global warming, Sunstein should send out
“government agents or their allies” to infiltrate the conspiracy
theory groups that believe our government has been invaded by
paranoid progressives.
J.Peden (10:57:12) : Global Warming/Climate Change has resulted in a real “psychic infection” in europe, US and australia. The rest of the world it is just watching you running like lemmings to the precipice.
Is this the part of Australia that has experienced three record heat waves in the last two years (one of these heat waves being in spring)?
J.Peden (10:57:12) : Here it is the precise quote from C.G.Jung:
In this broad belt of unconsciousness, which is immune to conscious criticism and control, we stand defenseless, open to all kinds of influences and psychic infections. As with all dangers, we can guard against the risk of psychic infection only when we know that is attacking, and how, where and when the attack will come.
Since self-knowledge is a matter of getting to know the individual, facts and theories are of very little help in this respect. For the more a theory lays claims to universal validity, the less capable it is of doing justice to the individual facts.
Any theory based on experience is necessarily statistical; that is to say, it formulates an ideal average which abolishes all exceptions at either end of the scale and replaces them by an abstract mean. This mean is quite valid, though it need not necessarily occur in reality.
Carl Jung, The Undiscovered Self
I’m thinking it’s a little too much to ask, even of the IPCC, to include a paper just published in a 3 year old report. Although we all know that the IPCC isn’t really an expert panel of volunteers from the academic arena, but is in fact at the heart of an all-powerful cabal bent on raising taxes on an unsuspecting populous – so who knows, perhaps they do have access to top-secret time travel technology.
“R Gates
Jones II said: “A hacker will tell us your real name..that will be the “Gates’ Gate”☺
Is this suppose to scare me? Not quite sure what your point here is? How is this related climate issues?”
It’s a joke laddie, humour hasn’t been outlawed as a cause of global warming, yet;-)
@ur momisugly Alan H (06:47:58)
Auntie Beeb has now added a “correction” to the article which you have cited. It is surprising that the BBC has admitted making an error in the identification of the mammal which appears to have fled, but the MOST important correction is in the final paragraph! Not too far from reality but, for the BBC to actually publish this is groundbreaking reprting for them!!
“Correction 8 February: An earlier version of this story had the species incorrectly as sea lion – lobos marinos. The mammal in question is fur seal – lobos marinos finos.
The measurements of average sea temperatures were taken by the Peruvian Geophysics Institute, and should not have been attributed to Orca as in the earlier version.
The earlier version had a reference to the temperature rise being caused by climate change. This has been removed as the relevant research is still in its early stages.”
Karoly is on record as saying in a recent Australian television show that 1,000 – 2,000 peer reviewed articles were published every year which explicitly support the “science” underpinning Anthropogenic Global Warming.
He has been challenged on it privately by a number of people I know, but has repeatedly failed or refused to back up his claim.
When the show trials begin, Karoly will be one of the first of the Australian Warming Fraudsters to be rounded up.
JonesII (11:16:37) :
Are you not happy with your recent live-giving rains?
We have many in California who are not at all pleased to see rain & snow.
The logic escapes me, as they don’t seem to have the basic understanding of where they live.
R. Gates (11:18:38) :
Jones II said: “A hacker will tell us your real name..that will be the “Gates’ Gate”☺
Is this suppose to scare me? Not quite sure what your point here is? How is this related climate issues?
I believe it is intended as humor. Might get yours checked , seems to be a bit out of alignment.
OT
“DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – The world’s tallest skyscraper has unexpectedly closed to the public a month after its lavish opening, disappointing tourists headed for the observation deck and casting doubt over plans to welcome its first permanent occupants in the coming weeks.
Electrical problems are at least partly to blame for the closure of the Burj Khalifa’s viewing platform — the only part of the half-mile high tower open yet. But a lack of information from the spire’s owner left it unclear whether the rest of the largely empty building — including dozens of elevators meant to whisk visitors to the tower’s more than 160 floors — was affected by the shutdown.”
World’s Tallest Tower Closed a Month After Opening
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100208/ap_on_bi_ge/ml_dubai_tallest_building
“Warming cannot yet be attributed to any anthropogenic cause.” IPCC 1995
… and of course nothing has changed since then.
Not to be a stick in the mud here, but Karoly’s publications in the references for Chapter 9 are as follows:
Karoly, D.J., 2003: Ozone and climate change. Science, 302, 236–237.
Karoly, D.J., and K. Braganza, 2001: Identifying global climate change using simple indices. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2205–2208.
Karoly, D.J., and K. Braganza, 2005a: Attribution of recent temperature changes in the Australian region. J. Clim., 18, 457–464.
Karoly, D.J., and K. Braganza, 2005b: A new approach to detection of anthropogenic temperature changes in the Australian region. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 89, 57–67.
Karoly, D.J., and Q. Wu, 2005: Detection of regional surface temperature trends. J. Clim., 18, 4337–4343.
Karoly, D.J., et al., 2003: Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science, 302, 1200–1203.
All are from peer-reviewed journals. Whether they are correct or not is a different question, but I don’t see how this can be cited as another WWF boondoggle.
From FoxNews: Administration Proposes New Agency to Study Climate Change
Oh, boy, here we go again! From Fox: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/….climate-change/
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration on Monday proposed a new agency to study and report on the changing climate, which has drawn concern among many scientists in recent years.
Commerce Secretary Gary Locke and Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, announced NOAA will set up the new Climate Service to operate in tandem with NOAA’s National Weather Service and National Ocean Service.
“Whether we like it or not, climate change represents a real threat,” Locke said Monday at a news conference.
Lubchenco added, “Climate change is real, it’s happening now.” She said climate information is vital to the wind power industry, coastal community planning, fishermen and fishery managers, farmers and public health officials. ………………….
The new agency will initially be led by Thomas Karl, director of the current National Climatic Data Center. The Climate Service will be headquartered in Washington and will have six regional directors across the country.
I hope no one else mentions this but I am in a hurry and could not read them all. The graphic by coloring the so called basin green gives totally the wrong idea. This is not green never was and we are talking about arid areas. Have a look at http://www.murrayriver.com.au/river-management/murray-darling-basin-commission/. I live in Canberra over on the right it used to get about 600mm now around 450mm, a near desert rainfall. To the south you will see the Murray and the Murrumbidge flows close to us. The Snowy Mountains Scheme built many years ago was a huge effort to divert the melting snows inland and created an irrigated farming industry along the Murray. From about 1940 through until about 1980 we also had exceptionally high rainfall and everyone got used to it, then it reverted back to form. A classic photo is this one http://www.pictures.libraries.vic.gov.au/site/mildura/boats/14530.html looks very wet does it not? There is a lot of flatness in the Basin so I don’t know why we persist in the name for instance on memory the Darling falls about an inch per 70 miles. It is so slow that in the 50s when a flood was coming down the river to where it joined the Murray there was enough time to gather 100 tractors to build a large levee around Wentworth and save the town. Finally this basin will no more hold water than KRudd, Wrong or the AGW argument.
Except when the fires come! Californians are never satisfied.
Curiousgeorge (12:54:07) Doomed! This new agency will issue “robust” reports to back “climate change” remediation.
rbateman (12:29:02) :
We have many in California who are not at all pleased to see rain & snow.
The logic escapes me, as they don’t seem to have the basic understanding of where they live.
So true. Here is a link to the L.A. storm drain system.
http://www.lastormwater.org/siteorg/general/lastrmdrn.htm
Note the picture of the governor in the storm channel making
the movie Terminator. Talk about clueless.
Dearimie,
“This is a new paper, so we need time to elapse to see whether critical scrutiny reveals any shortcomings. This is true in general of all papers”
Precisely, so why did IPCC seize upon the Karoly paper for inclusion in AR4? Why didn’t they wait for time to elapse to see if there was critical scrutiny forthcoming?
What denialist twaddle. All the usual nonsense.
Issue should be what causes or prolongs droughts – not drought severity. SO deceptively Bolt in his usual bulldusting style fogs an entire issue.
(1) Not on the pace – and as usual it’s what denialists don’t tell you – not what they tell you as they fail miserably in their duty of care
What is not told is that there is very good research (Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI -CSIRO & BoM) and the South East Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI – CSIRO & BoM)) that documents changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the intensification of the subtropical ridge (STR) which adds to, reinforces, prolongs drought caused by natural factors ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole. Perhaps even AGW changes in the IOD itself. Maybe even Walker circulation.
The SEACI research shows that circulation changes in the south-east region are likely to have been influenced by AGW. (greenhouse and stratospheric ozone decline forcings). This work is very detailed and very specific.
(2) It’s about agri-business risk management which those sitting in air conditioned offices know little about – is it your agribusiness dollars, your investment or your family property
(3) confounding the ETS with the climate science i.e. if you don’t like the ETS – therefore the climate science MUST be wrong – illogical
(4) that suddenly AGW theory demands all natural drought influences must disappear – who said ?
(5) fail to quote the last line of the Lockart et al GRL paper which says “It is stressed that the results of the analyses presented here in no way negate genuine concerns over anthropogenic climate change” – as they says in Aussie – this is having two bob each way? pretty weak … as they know what they’ve left out
(6) nothing on the changes in wind run which reflect in changes in pan evaporation – more atmospheric AGW circulation changes
(7) and yawn Lockart et al have missed http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL031524.shtml –
But of course who would come to Wattsup to get a serious education?
P.S. Usual ruses here – (1) present rainfall stats for the whole Murray Darling Basin (MDB) – issue is lower MDB – i.e. Murray itself. Better still present rainfall stats for the whole of Australia. (NW has become wetter – while east, SE, and SW drier – average that and learn nothing !!)
Ruse 2 – “there have been droughts before” – duh !
Ruse 3 – pretend AGW science doesn’t know/care about natural variability
This is a Categorical Statement by D. J. Karoly and K. Braganza.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/k8k1532833g84512/
So you can forget all the work being done on Temperature Readings.
This is a Categorical Statement by D. J. Karoly and K. Braganza.
http://www.springerlink.com/content/k8k1532833g84512/
So you can forget all the work being done on Temperature Readings in Australia.