Jeff Id of the Air Vent reminds me with a video recently made available that that Burt Rutan has been giving active lectures on his view of global warming. WUWT covered Rutan’s Oshkosh EAA presentation last summer, but we didn’t have video then, only his powerpoint presentation.
Burt Rutan – aviation pioneer, engineer, test pilot, climate skeptic. Note the car.
Rutan’s PowerPoint file is posted at:
http://rps3.com/Pages/Burt_Rutan_on_Climate_Change.htm
For those that don’t have PowerPoint, I’ve converted it to a PDF file for easy and immediate reading online which you can download here.
And you can watch the video as Rutan presents at EAA:
3 attempts now at downloading the WUWT-hosted pdf file on 56K dial-up, file size reported as 5.2 MB.
EST time — how much downloaded
08:41PM — 3.3 MB
08:55PM — 3.4 MB
12:42AM — 3.7 MB
Three failures from here, while the 7.0 MB pdf from here of the 2009 Oshkosh Climate Change Presentation, listed along with the PowerPoint version, came through just fine on the first attempt.
*sigh*
David Kitchen (21:03:01)
Yes, what part of the presentation is bogus nonsense?
Failure to answer will demonstrate you are not serious (just a driveby AGW religionist).
Serious people answer direct questions forthrightly and with at least some specifics, the more the better, to back up their general statements (which is all you brought to the table).
I’ll come back to this post’s comment section to see if you ever followed up and responded (but I’m not holding my breath).
OT:
Over at Heresy Corner, a once-firm trust in settled science starts to waver and the author points out a nugget of information of which I wasn’t aware (maybe everyone else is):
“But you’ll have noticed the really amazing sentence in Paul’s defence of the Met Office. “We take the highest 15 readings between November and March and then produce an average.” They ignore, in other words, the lowest readings. This is a method almost certain to produce massive distortion. A warm November would fix a winter as “mild” even if the temperature in the subsequent three months averaged sixty degrees below zero. Which is almost, but not quite, what is likely to happen this winter.”
http://heresycorner.blogspot.com/2010/01/however-cold-it-gets-this-is-officially.html#reply
Burt Rutan has real credibility, earned over a life time of real accomplishments in applied science, in a field where BS (bad science) gets people dead.
If I remember correctly Richard Branson was born very rich, Lots of money lets you hire brains to make you look good. You just have to be smart enough to know who to listen to.
Branson hired Rutan to create the biggest and most expensive “A” ticket roller coaster ride ever seen. I doubt Branson really cares about Burts’ views on CAGW.
artwest:
Oh holy crap! From the link you posted:
So the Met office simply takes the 15 warmest readings of the entire winter, averages them out, and makes that out to be the “average” temperature of the entire winter!
I hope that was someone simply being sarcastic and not REALLY someone who works for the Met Office. If that is what they are doing then it makes the Met Office an absolute laughing stock.
Of course that would explain a lot of their output. They aren’t producing an average of the winter temperature at all but simply producing an average of the 15 warmest days of the winter. That is complete and utter stupidity. In this case an average of the 15 coldest days would produce a different result. Why not an average of the actual average temperature of all days of the winter?
I can’t believe that comment is real. If it is, then the Met Office should be fired, the entire lot of them, for complete stupidity.
Ken,
Another Rutan partner was Paul Allen when they won the Ansari X prize in 2004. It would be real interesting to see someone with the financial resources of Paul Allen come out against AGW.
It’s only a matter of time before someone who ends up creating huge wealth, is also on the side of reason, science, capitalism, freedom, limited government, etc. and wants to use his/her wealth to vigorously defend those values.
Hopefully we all live to see that day soon.
kadaka (21:57:22) :
56K dial-up? Wow. I don’t know whether to laugh at you or feel sorry for you. Maybe if the industrialized countries were to pitch in we could get you some high speed internet…what do you think? Should we make you be our equal?
David Kitchen (21:03:01) :
Said: “FOX noise.”
His Leftism is showing. They just can not resist. They usually call it “Faux News” in their attempt at humor and degradation. They really hate freedom of the press.
David Kitchen (21:03:01) :
“I have looked at this site each day for the last 6 months, and found it thought provoking- even though I seldom agree. I am giving it a wide birth now as you seem to have made a clear choice to leave rational argument behind and “go gunboat”.”
It’s hard to argue with such an erudite statement as that. The WUWT readers will appreciate your wide berth but don’t really need the mental image of your wide birth.
Full disclosure; Burt Rutan is one of my innovative heroes.
Well done Burt Rutan. This presentation is one of the most persuasive summaries on the AGW “theory” I have read, leading one to conclude there’s a whole lot that the AGW people don’t want the public to know. It’s hard to imagine this AGW charade continuing for too many more years. The politicians that hitched their wagons to this boondoggle will pay a heavy price.
Thanks for the links to Burt’s talk Anthony. I was actually in attendance last August for the event. I was excited to hear the amazing Burt Rutan give a talk, and I expected it to be about his aeronautical exploits (this was Oshkosh, after all!). So imagine my surprise when he went on this amazingly well researche RANT about AGW. It was electrifying in person! Someone was finally saying the emperor’s clothes were missing. I’d been mildly suspicious of the whole AGW enterprise, thinking that it defied credulity that some climate scientists had adequately modeled earth’s chaotic climate, but had not personally looked into the subject. Mr. Rutan opened a lot of eyes that day, and I’m glad that he is continuing to. But his presentation was not accepted passively–there was some considerable push back from several in the crowd who found him to be a fire-breathing heretic. He stood his ground well.
Keep in mind this was well in advance of climategate.
What will stick most with me, and a line I have used quite a bit, was Burt’s point that IF we thought we could influence the earth’s climate, we certainly would want to be able to warm it, given that for most of it’s recent history the earth has been quite chilly, and hundreds of feet of ice sheet above Oshkosh is not healthy for children or other living things!
(not to mention that it would really really cramp the style of the fly in!)
The other very impressive point from Mr. Rutan was that, as an aeronautical engineer, he needs to be able to model behaviors with chaotic features, and he recognizes the vital need to make sure that his models are highly predictive in order to support his designs He also needs to understand the limits of his models’ abilities to predict. His study of the climate models left him speechless at their lack of ability to predict.
Burt’s presentation gave voice to my vague concerns and led me to look into the field in more depth–discovering WUWT and other refuges from the “settled” science. I came away equally speechless. As a practicing scientist, I’d been pretty appalled that there were people calling themselves scientists who were using the term “settled” or who were castigating skeptics as if it was a bad thing?! (I’m more skeptical of my own data than anyone–and proud of that fact–it’s the core of scientific inquiry–nothing is settled, and if you’re not skeptical, you will be sorry).
Of course then climategate erupted, and I’ve been stunned by the horrendous abuse by these so-called scientists. At my institution, I chair our committee on scientific integrity. I know scientific misconduct when I see it, and it’s present in spades in the released documents. It’s unfortunate, but all of us in the scientific enterprise are being tarred with these clowns’ brushes. It’s even more distressing to see the journals attempting to cover and deflect. Nature should be ashamed of publishing such garbage without primary data being available, but then to come out in support of these bozos?
My thanks to Burt for really opening my eyes to this pitiful chapter in the otherwise noble history of science and engineering. (and White Knight II was awfully cool, too!)
OT, tropopshere seems to be getting a huge amount of warming http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002 The southern hemisphere must be getting a roasting while we’re freezing our arses off here in England.
Folks, not only is Burt Rutan a pretty good engineer (high praise in the engineering world) but he flat out has courage. He sat in the back seat of F4 Phantoms at Edwards while a civilian flight test engineer while the *unrecoverable* spin modes of the airplane were investigated. The aircraft were fitted with anti spin chutes so when the unrecoverable mode occurred the chute would be deployed to recover the aircraft. It isn’t unknown for anti spin chutes to fail to deploy ,tangle etc which leaves you with ejection aka “attempted suicide to avoid certain death.”
Not for this little black duck who has spun quite a few sailplanes, a couple of power planes and flown in Air force training jets.
“…) This is the site link, if anyone wants to wade thru it – nice caricatures tho.
http://www.buffalobeast.com/?p=1237&cpage=1#comment-214”
Thanks, I just passed through. Shan’t go back. Really vicious ad hom.
If Rutan and Monckton combined forces, they could make 100’s of Al Gore types run away crying for help and begging for forgiveness.
mike roddy (16:16:25) : Sorry, Burt, but […] I would be terrified to get in an airplane that you either flew or designed.
That kind of sums it up. Unwilling to fly in an airplane from what is one of if not THE best designer in the world. Oh, and how many other private designers have gone to space and back? And in a reusable ship too… Oh, and who made and airplane to fly non-stop around the world un-refueled?
Yup. Terrified of things from irrational fears…
I’d get in ANY Rutan design any day and be at peace.
(Though my favorite and what I’d “someday” love to own is the Quickie:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rutan_quickie_q2.jpg
that looks fast sitting still and is minimalist poetry of design… almost a Hiku of composite design.)
gtrip (23:24:43) : 56K dial-up? Wow. I don’t know whether to laugh at you or feel sorry for you. Maybe if the industrialized countries were to pitch in we could get you some high speed internet…what do you think? Should we make you be our equal?
Um, some of us in the USA also use 56k dial-up. Often it is all that is available at ‘first bring up’ of sites (where I’ve often used it to download new software revs to load into the router that was not talking to the T1 … ) and it is usually configured as an alternative emergency link between routers when the leased lines go down. Most WANS I’ve installed had a 56 kb link for backup and for remote management.
Further, hotels do NOT all have high speed… and you don’t always get to choose your hotel. Heck, I’ve even used 9.6kb over my old Mot. Startac phone (a few years back) to check email from a rest stop in the middle of some god forsaken rest stop near / in New Mexico toward the Texas side. (Had to ‘roll my own’ config for it. At the time data over cell phones was not exactly a supported product…) Nearest “anything not sand” was many long miles away… but my Linux laptop and Startac got my email to me with nothing but battery power and country air.
Oh, and while I sometimes use the high speed, I also often use a 56 k dial up just to mutate my IP numbers. Especially on certain types of security contracts. For most things it is quite ‘livable’ (and more so when the kids are on the leased line and are downloading GB of “stuff” and one of their BFs is playing a live interactive video game and … “My Share” is often best served by a dedicated 56 kb.)
Frankly, other than pages crammed with a zillion pictures or video and the occasional “code bloat download”, I don’t mind it at all. (Then I usually DO hop on the leased line… or go get a Starbucks if the “kids” are being line hogs 😉 though a bit of ‘war driving’ can turn something up in most hotel rows or business parks these days… but I digress.)
Oh, and it is possible to gang them for higher parallel throughput, though I’ve not needed to do that.
So please, do not disparage the 56 kb line. It is the “network maintenance guys” life line most of the time. (Think about it… if ‘the network’ is broken how do you use the network to fix it?…)
crosspatch (15:43:55) : Most of Rutan’s money these days comes from Richard Branson. If Rutan came out anti-AGW, he company would collapse.
You don’t think Rutan has enough in the bank to do whatever he feels like doing? AFTER the X-prize??
The market for space tourism exists. Rutan has the means / vehicle.
Branson can not get to space without Rutan. Rutan can get to space without Branson… (though Branson lets Rutan build a bigger scale of ship ‘out the gate’). Heck, today Rutan could start selling rides if he wanted to do so and be self funding. Just more money faster if the two of them work together. Branson knows this, as does Rutan. But if “the deal” broke up, I’d rather be Rutan looking for folks wanting to buy a ride than Branson looking for “the other private space plane company” with a proven vehicle.
Both these guys can do whatever they want and neither of them is going to be worried about money the rest of their lives.
Interesting isn’t it, that people like David Kitchen and M Roddy, come along and decree “this is all nonsense,” spend several paragraphs repeating “this is all nonsense,” and yet without a single sentence of scientific rebuttal leaving their pens (or keyboards).
David Kitchen: “I am giving it a wide birth [berth?] now as you seem to have made a clear choice to leave rational argument behind and “go gunboat”.
We are still waiting for HIS rational argument as to why this is “all nonsense,” but I expect a long wait. Such behaviour is typical of those who know they have lost the argument, or more likely, had none to begin with. Oh well, at least it will show any newcomers to the site that the warmists have run out of arguments, and that alone is worth a thousand sceptics.
Richard Branson has turned out to be a bit of a disappointment, hasn’t he? When I read this Scarygraph article,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/6900494/Sir-Richard-Branson-we-need-a-low-carbon-world-capable-of-growth-otherwise-society-will-fall-apart.html
I was reminded that there were 5 foolish virgins, one of whom it seems is an entrepreneur who has somewhat lost the plot. Trim your wick Sir Richard and ensure you’ve brought enough non-biofuel oil to the party.
Its nice to see a hard-nosed common sense engineer like Burt Rutan tell us what he thinks and explain why. I actually think he may get through to people in ways Lord Monckton can’t.
artwest and crosspatch. Please don’t let that ‘Tony from Norwich’ nonsense go any further. I read that when it was on the original Daily Mail thread and it’s clear that ‘Tony’ was having a laugh at everyone’s expense. I would think it obvious that he doesn’t work for the Met Office at all, as he included November, when the Met Office only include Dec, Jan & Feb. And not even the MO would “take the 15 highest”!!!
I think it is instructive to see a renowned applied scientist address this issue.
OT
Vincent said: “Oh well, at least it will show any newcomers to the site that the warmists have run out of arguments, and that alone is worth a thousand sceptics.”
Absolutely. Nothing eventually convinced me of the implausibility of the CAGW hypothesis as strongly as reading realclimate did. If you dodge open debate and can’t give detailed answers to key questions, and instead end up censoring them, don’t expect people to trust you.
You can notice the same modus operandi everywhere, in the IPCC review-process with their arbitrary “rejected” comments with no explanations given, in the media that shun the difficult questions. It’s quite hard to explain.
” DirkH (16:05:01) :
We’re all engineering kinda persons and the project we’re in is subsidized by EU money.
Besides, developing these solutions is worthwhile nevertheless.”
Yes indeed, but here is the problem: When AGW theory finally falls apart in the public view, and the political system takes a bath at the polls, don’t expect any more money for these worthwhile projects.
For all the good reason for energy tech, to the politician they will be dead. The politicians *gough*algore*cough* never really understood the science anyway — and it’s debatable if anyone really did — so they will not be open to any REAL reason to continue funding such technology development.. for fear of looking stupid again.
AGW is going to set back energy development by 30 years.
12 part documentary on Burt Rutan and the development of SpaceShipOne
Absolutely amazing.