From the “weather is not climate department. Oh the weather outside is frightful….
Prisoners used to shovel snow-bound US capitol
Here’s the roundup of cold and snow records for the past 7 days. While there is a handful of new high temp records, it is clear where the bulk of the statistics is. Note the new record lows in Florida.
Here’s a few other recent news stories:
Maryland Reports 4 Cold Weather Deaths
Cold weather kills scores in India
Dublin airport suspends flights after heavy snowfall, cold weather
Once in generation cold snap forecast for North Carolina
Record low blows into Siouxland
Recent global cool-down challenges validity of climate change models
National Weather Highlight for 12 / 29 / 09: Record snow falls in Dallas / Fort Worth area
Recent global cool-down challenges validity of climate change models
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In the Seattle area the suburbs have just (in the past two years or so) discovered and adopted the molasses technique.
The statement you scorn would have been OK if it had read, “the annual rate is monotonic …”
I believe that the Met Office IS blamable, because diesel fuel can be formulated so as to resist clotting in the cold. Cold-weather diesel (“thinner” probably) works OK elsewhere in colder weather than the UK is experiencing.
OT ..
Had a creative spurt this morning …
Gore-Tex logo converted .. ☺ ☺ Does not really fit here… oh well.
http://photoshare.shaw.ca/image/2/d/8/63987/goretalk4-0.jpg
Canadian “*David Suzuki says he wants anti-Kyoto politicians thrown in jail.”
Suzuki and his MSM partners, including the CBC, must be brought to account in a criminal court of law for their roles in the AGW fraud.
…-
“Prisoners used to shovel snow-bound US capital
WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US capital paid prison inmates to shovel sidewalks, crosswalks and bus stops after the biggest December blizzard in the city’s history, the Department of Corrections said Thursday.
Two work crews comprising some 20 prisoners convicted of minor offenses were deployed around the city December 18 and 19, along with two prison guards to watch over them, DOC spokesman Michon Parker told AFP.
Each inmate was paid 7.50 dollars per hour for their work, he added.
The December 18-19 snowstorm dumped 60 centimeters (24 inches) of snow on the city, the heaviest on record in the month of December.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100101/od_afp/usweathersnowprisonoffbeat_20100101000544
…-
“*David Suzuki says he wants anti-Kyoto politicians thrown in jail. How did environmentalism become this totalitarian?
Terry O’neill, National Post Published: Thursday, February 07, 2008″
http://www.nowpublic.com/environment/david-suzuki-says-he-wants-anti-kyoto-politicians-thrown-jail
>>ralph (01:01:51) :
>>But could this magnetic disturbance (or calming) also influence
>>the track of the upper jetstreams in any way? If so, we could
>>discover the link between sunspot activity and climate.
.
>>Basil (06:54:13) :
>> You might also find this Ph.D. thesis interesting:
>> http://ro.uow.edu.au/theses/163/
>>“Solar-modulated geomagnetic activity is therefore an important
>>forcing mechanism for recent climate change. Specifically, many
>>of the unexplained aspects of the recent changes in northern
>>hemisphere climate, including the climate regime shift of the
>>early 1960s, can be attributed to the effects of geomagnetic
>>activity in the upper atmosphere. Interannual variations in the
>>North Atlantic Oscillation should no longer be considered as
>>climatic noise, while the strong positive trend and decadal
>>variations evident since the 1960s can be attributed, in part,
>>to solar forcing.”
Thanks Basil.
Leif Svalgaard has long said that the Sun cannot be forcing Climate Change because the TSI (total solar output) changes during sunspot cycles are far too small.
However, the factor that does change is magnetic flux. If these papers are correct, then it may be through decreasing magnetic flux that we are now encountering reductions in temperature during this extended solar minimum.
Climate Change smoking gun discovered?
.
Hu McCulloch (06:48:58) :
It’s odd that Montana and New England had record highs and record lows side by side. Could there be a problem with some of this data?
Well, one can never be overly vigilant about doubting data, but some of my family spent Christmas Holiday in Montana and there is a sharp gradient across the state. The Western valleys, west of Butte are (or were as of a couple of days ago) snow-free and mild. Mountains can play funny tricks with the flow of cold air this time of year.
Bernice (02:23:59) :
“Wind farms at virtual standstill.”
Anthony, there may be a good follow up thread here for the inadequacy of wind or solar in cold, static high pressure systems. Energy and heat are most critical in cold snaps, yet these renewable resources can’t cut it when most desperately needed. Comparative plots of energy demand vs. energy available from wind and solar would be enlightening.
REPLY: Looking through the full Twitter feed it appears to be just a joke among friends http://twitter.com/GoodnzHood
Ooops, sorry to waste time with a wild goose chase.
re: John K. Sutherland (07:17:41) :
Most of the biodiesel refineries are taking a huge hit and some are being mothballed as the tax credit went away here in the States at the beginning of the new year
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/hotstories/6794155.html
so perhaps the government can find a new way to fritter away tax dollars…
Back to the cold winter topic, yes, most of us reading this forum pretty much suspected it was going to happen. While this bit of prolonged cold still won’t prove any link between sunspots and clouds, it certainly doesn’t disprove it. Even though the magnetic mojo of the Sun is off the low levels, I’m not guessing this slightly higher level of solar wind is enough to push away the cosmic ray increases we’ve seen during this low. Even then, it’s what, a six month delay? The point here is, I don’t fear the cold winter killing off the old and poor as much as I fear the next growing season. It’s the potential for a cold spring and summer. A cold NH spring has the potential for doing quite a bit of damage to already low global food stocks. It’s not the early seasonal snow in Houston but the late snows in Iowa that will give us all pause. But this is mere speculation at the moment.
I contend that mankind has relied on global warming for far too long. It was only natural to do so. That money that the poor countries pleaded for in Copenhagen in compensation for the planet warming may eventually be needed to stave off the effects of an “unexpected” cooldown.
In the Weather is local department… we just had a storm blow through. Gusts of 95 MPH were recorded with 2-4 inches of rain. Whats interesting is in Oregon that is weather, in the Eastern US, its a Hurricane.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/OR/022.html#REP
Forecast was for 80 mph gusts around Cape Blanco…
geronimo (02:43:54)
BBC bias?
Yes, I can’t find any mention of the gritter lorry problem in Perth on the BBC Scotland News webpages:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/default.stm
or for Tayside & Central.
Strange uh?
The story does appear in the Scotsman:
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/It39s-too-snowy-and-cold.5951285.jp
Now that I’m a bit thawed out and my innards have been warmed by a rich bowl of deliciously spicy chili …
Well – the only thing they got right with the forecast for Buffalo was that it would be cold out today; I guess 8°F qualifies. And that windchill!!!! At least around -5°F. But they missed the dang snow numbers. They were calling for approx an inch a day over the three day period (Sat – Mon). … Right. … Got about 5 to 6 inches overnight. At least it was very low density snow – lousy for snowballs & snowmen but perfect for a picture postcard. Got the whole drive done in an hour (it’s a circular drive that usually takes about three hours). And after the snow hit (it was only about a 3-5 mile or so band of snow), they issued a winter weather advisory for another 4-7 inches by tomorrow night.
Al, baby — where’s all that dang global warming you keep beating your drum about?
Bernice (02:23:59) :
Wind farms at virtual standstill.
Waste of investment.
Could have been spent on coal power.
Coal has this funny ability to burn 24 hours a day. 😉
And it’s the less expensive alternative. Which means if we build more coal powered electricity plants we will be showing mercy to the elderly on fixed incomes since their electric bills will go down. Sounds like a civilized thing to do.
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html
…These two realities can’t coexist!
Farmers can’t be going bankrupt across the US thanks to the worst harvest season ever seen while at the same time producing the USDA’s Biggest Crop Ever! Someone is lying, and evidence supports the farmer’s story…
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html
…These two realities can’t coexist!
Farmers can’t be going bankrupt across the US thanks to the worst harvest season ever seen while at the same time producing the USDA’s Biggest Crop Ever! Someone is lying, and evidence supports the farmer’s story…
Hide the decline?
Perhaps the UK should contract out the weather forecasting. Have a one year competition with the Met Office vs the private forecasters, winner take all. You might see a vast improvement in the Met forecasts.
My mind is having trouble grasping the concept of mixing sand/grit with molasses, especially in January.
John K. Sutherland (07:17:41) :
JohnH, Here in NE Canada we use what I call ‘cold weather diesel’ and I have no trouble using it in my tractor or in an outside tank used to heat my house, even when it gets to minus 40C, which it rarely does.
When school buses and trucks fill up with ‘organic’ ‘politically correct diesel’ from plants or from recycled chip fat, they get stuck in the cold. This happens in the various idiotocracies that pass for government these days. It happens each winter, and school kids need to be rescued from their frozen school buses.
In the north US of A we use “diesel prep” or just plain kerosene to make the diesel flow correctly and not jell. My 2 pkups have built in block heaters that I plug in too. I am now in North Carolina and having to plug in my pickups so they will start easily. Doesn’t the UK have block heaters in their diesels??? Doesn’t Canada use a fuel additive for the winter??? I know beauracratic idiots sitting in warm offices making the decisions… never mind..
TerryBixler (08:24:58) :
These policies are a disaster….Obama’s desire to kill coal real harm can come to the population.
The Americans keep voting for empty suits like this so America will get what it deserves.
Some red and yellow dots are lonesome. Grills of fire tucks must be keeping them warm. 😉
Today’s Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch had a weather summary for 2009. It was stated that the average temperature was 1.4 degrees F above normal.
However, they also published the monthly averages and the monthly departures from normal. The average of the monthly data was 0.1 degrees below normal.
I guess that means the normal yearly average temperature is not equal to the average of the 12 monthly average temperatures? Can anyone enlighten me about how the weather people calculate averages?
Re: Basil (06:54:13)
Thanks for the link to the PhD thesis. Ridiculous that the figures are not included in the online version – but some union-wage university thesis-admins dictate nonsensical rules as if all theses were Arts theses (i.e. no figures). But hey – (sarcasm) – not a big deal to cut out the material that comprises the top 99% of the content, particularly since it is inconvenient for people being paid 3-times their worth to militantly dictate nonsense.
I’ve been looking into AAO & SAM recently and I’ve found a way to isolate the ACC spatiotemporal mode. Preliminary results suggest beats with another oscillation (one related to EOP) will show coherence with QBO.
The thesis demonstrates some useful ways to gather clues about conditional dependencies. What is needed is a phase-oriented approach. Linear-amplitude-correlation-studies will remain messy until phase-relations are understood with much more precision. (We’re dealing with chords, not simple notes.)
–
Re: Retired Engineer John (07:15:33)
Interesting notes & questions John…
This 20 degree weather in the Dallas, TX area has gotten old fast (and we have MORE in the forecast for next week – oh joy!)
At this rate ALL the fire ants are going to get killed off; what will we do* for fun down-on-the-farm then?
.
.
(* Kicking over fire ant mounds and couting the queens can be great sport for the kids)
.
Ed Murphy (11:33:03) :
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html
…These two realities can’t coexist!
Farmers can’t be going bankrupt across the US thanks to the worst harvest season ever seen while at the same time producing the USDA’s Biggest Crop Ever! Someone is lying, and evidence supports the farmer’s story…
Hide the decline?
…These two realities can’t coexist!
REPLY:
Yes the two realities can exist because you are not seeing the WHOLE story. First the USDA used to have grain stores but policy changes were made. Thanks to the 1996 “Freedom to Farm Act” the grain stores were completely used up by the winter of 2008 and never replaced.
“Today, says USDA Undersecretary Mark Keenum, “Our cupboard is bare.” …Because of the current economics of food, and changes in federal farm subsidy programs designed to make farmers rely more on the markets, large U.S. reserves may be gone for a long time.
The upshot: USDA has almost no extra food to supplement the billions in cash payments it spends to combat hunger at home and in developing nations.
A coalition of religious and farm groups, in an open letter to Congress this week, warned that low supplies increase the risk of hunger and higher prices, calling for creation of a strategic grain reserve… http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2008-05-01-usda-food-supply_N.htm
However the guys with the political clout wrote:
“…Recently there have been increased calls for the development of a U.S. or international grain reserve to provide priority access to food supplies for Humanitarian needs. The National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) and the North American Export Grain Association (NAEGA) strongly advise against this concept..Stock reserves have a documented depressing effect on prices… and resulted in less aggressive market bidding for the grains…” July 22, 2008 letter to President Bush http://www.naega.org/images/pdf/grain_reserves_for_food_aid.pdf
On top of this is the Bio-fuel idiocy mandated by law
“… Under this law, the United States will produce 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol a year by 2015. The U.S. is producing half that amount now and corn prices have soared…. It would require an estimated 20 million more acres of corn to produce this ethanol…
That is how we can have record crops planted and marginally higher amount of crops harvested BUT have a short fall in the amount of grain actually needed to cover demand for domestic food AND biofuel AND the export market.
Also the price a farmer is paid for his corn is not the same as the price a grain trader sells at.
“..According to a recent Tufts University study, the overproduction of agricultural crops such as corn and soybeans due to US agricultural policy since 1996 has, until recently, driven the market price of those commodities well below their cost of production (Starmer and Wise, 2007 )…” http://www.pewtrusts.org/uploadedFiles/wwwpewtrustsorg/Reports/Industrial_Agriculture/PCIFAP_FINAL.pdf
This combined with the WTO Agreement on Agriculture and NAFTA has allowed the grain traders to dump low cost US grain on third world countries and drive local farmers bankrupt. Smithfield, Tyson et al then move in and setup large commercial farms.
“…In Mexico, the price farmers receive for corn has plummeted 45 percent At least 1.5 million farmers have left their land. 900,000 people leave Mexico’s land every year, a U.N. program says. According to a study by Jose Romero and Alicia Puyana carried out for the federal government of Mexico, between 1992 and 2002, the number of agricultural households fell an astounding 75% – from 2.3 million to 575, 000…” .http://www.globalexchange.org/campaigns/ftaa/topten.html
There are about ten international Corporations that control the majority of the food supply, Cargill, Andre, Louis Dreyfus, Bunge and Born, are closely held corporations.
It is worth doing some digging into the World bank/IMF Sap’s, the WTO Agreement on Ag, the Global Diversity Treaty and the rest of the behind the scenes maneuvering in the world food supply. It has been giving me nightmares for a couple of years.
You can start here:
History, HACCP and the Food Safety Con Job
http://www.opednews.com/articles/History-HACCP-and-the-Foo-by-Nicole-Johnson-090906-229.html
The Festering Fraud Behind Food Safety Reform
http://www.foodsafetynews.com/contributors/nicole-johnson/
Jack in Oregon (10:17:11) :
A hurricane is a storm driven by vertical temperature differences. As the eye develops, descending air gives it a warm core.
Storms in the northwest and northeast are baroclinic – powered by the horizontal temperature differences and are embedded in frontal systems and don’t have as much of a “vertical drain”. They are broad storms, and effects tend to cover whole states or larger regions.
Hurricanes tend to be more compact than extratropical storms. That’s why you hear of hurricanes battering New Orleans, Homestead FL, or the Richlieu Apartments vs hurricane Camille, a very compact Cat 5. (BTW, apparently there was no party and most residents survived, see http://camille.passchristian.net/hurricane_party.htm – I never knew that.)
One thing that may happen to some severe nor’easters in New England is that they start taking on tropical characteristics. They’ve never been investigated by hurricane hunter planes, but some do develop eye-like structures according to radar images. Some people are using the term “Wintercane” to describe them.
Jim at (04:34:35)
I would have prefered you to cite and discuss one of my points and not my introductory statements before your writing:
“(MOST of us are adults here, ‘friend’.)”
Is your comment intended to suggest that you are among a minority of us here?
Richard
Richard Saumarez (03:32:44) :
You say:
“I have been looking at the released Met-Office/CRU data and the related code. I am absolutely astonished. They use methods which a second year engineering student could demolish.
The methods they use can be be shown formally to be wrong. It can also be shown to produce substantial artifactual trends.”
One of the Climategate emails pertains to my attempt to publish a paper that discussed the fact that the methods demonstrably generate “artifactual trends”.
I posted the pertinent email and discussion of it on WUWT you may be interested in all my comments on the item at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/11/giss-raw-station-data-before-and-after/
My first comment is at (14:07:21) on 11.12.2009 and it begins:
“I have previously posted this on WUWT but it seems desirable to post it again here.
It demonstrates that 6 years ago The Team knew the estimates of average global temperature (mean global temperature, MGT) were worthless and they acted to prevent publication of proof of this.
The most important email among those hacked (?) from CRU may turn out to be one that I wrote 6 years ago. I had forgotten it but Willis Essenbach found it among the hacked (?) emails and circulated it. I copy it here then explain its meaning and significance.
The email is this.
….”
Richard