It has started – the infighting begins in the court of public opinion.
Climategate: Phil Jones accused of making error of judgment by colleague
Here’s an excerpt:
One of the scientists to whom the emails were addressed, Professor Michael Mann, the Director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University has moved to distance himself from some of the comments in the emails that suggest scientists did not want the IPCC, the UN body charged with monitoring climate change, to consider studies that challenged the view global warming was genuine and man-made.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s The World Tonight, Prof Mann said: “I can’t put myself in the mind of the person who wrote that email and sent it. I in no way endorse what was in that email.”
Prof Mann also said he could not “justify” a request from Prof Jones that he should delete some of his own emails to prevent them from being seen by outsiders.
“I can’t justify the action, I can only speculate that he was feeling so under attack that he made some poor decisions frankly and I think that’s clear.”
Prof Mann then argued however that there was “absolutely no evidence” that he too had manipulated data, while he also said “I don’t believe that any of my colleagues have done that”.
Complete story here at the Telegraph:
Climategate: Phil Jones accused of making error of judgment by colleague
h/t to Kate at SDA
When Steve McIntyre first revealed that he had found the file labelled “CENSORED” that contained Mann’s reconstruction without Bristlecone pines, showing no hockey stick, I couldn’t believe that anyone who was trying to get a desired result by fishing with the data would ever be dumb enough to label a file that way and leave it on a server. I figured “CENSORED” probably had some other meaning. Now I know……………………………….
Snowmaneasy
I agree. It’s shocking.
I think we have to stop considering Nature as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal.
boballab (12:21:30) :
” Well the head of PSU just got notice that the state legislature is going to be watching and they better not be whitewhasing Mann, with the implied threat of getting the money cutoff. ”
Yes, Mann is very vulnerable because of the State of Pennsylvania’s charter regardig Penn Sate U. If the state gov is watching the investigation closely, then it cannot be a easy whitewash.
By chance, Mann is unlucky because doesn’t work for a private university. There is no such oversight over a private university.
All you citizens of the great state of Pennsylvania please contact your state gov reps.
Joh
PhilW (10:11:46)
I took you advice and sent the comment below:
Obviously judging by your questions above the BBC assumes Climate Change is taken as a given and it is the fault of man. This, when the BBC Trust shouts from the rooftops about BBC impartiality.
The BBC is happy to preach the religion of MMGW without any scientific proof, but has the hypocrisy to fly 35 staff to Copenhagen for 2 weeks.
Once the BBC was a bastion of impartiality. Now it has become a shadow of it’s former self and too nervous to report at all on subjects such as Climategate.
My guess is you won’t publish this comment on any of your outlets – but that is as expected. Your behavior is nothing but a disgrace to your millions of license payers. For your own good – make the changes to you editorial policy – now.
I appreciate that DB, it’s just that you’re having to retrieve them from the spam- bin & I can’t understand why they’re going there.
DaveE.
PAguy (10:10:23) :
Fortunately for Dr. Mann, Penn State main campus has low carbon footprint buses powered by natural gas.
Being thrown under such a bus would be an honor
Natural gas buses are higher in carbon output than diesel Lot higher. Nancy Pelosi even said natural gas was not a fossil fuel. It is a fossil fuel and very inefficient for engines. Mercedes has clean diesel engines as is one of the BMW engines. They are common rail deisel and ultra high pressure injecters.
Could Dr. Mann be going from Penn State to State Pen?
DaveE.
I know this is nasty situation with blame to go aroundbut from several things I have read it sounds to me like Wigley is a true believer but I am not seeing him fudging the data but rather questioning those who are. Are his sins those of not blowing the whistle or is there some place he is obviously part of the fraud?
I agree with Snowmaneasy that the Nature piece is worthy of its own thread. That mag needs some daylight scrutiny, too. They are co-conspirators.
“Prof Mann then argued however that there was “absolutely no evidence” that he too had manipulated data…”
Mind you, don’t ask him about Tortured, Abused, Adjusted, Ignored, Cherry-picked, CENSORED, Mutilated or Deleted…
PhilW (10:11:46) :
Found this side door round at the BBC. Might be worth giving the moderators stool a kick…. or two
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/8375378.stm
Good spot Phil.
Posted:
—————————————————————
The game is up. Al Gore isn’t coming. Phil Jones is headed for prison along with Michael Mann, James Hanson, Gavin Schmidt and the rest of the Hockey Stick Team.
The taxpayers of Europe want their hard earned money back.
The clock is ticking on the whole charade.
If we start with the studies of what works in climate forecasting, the Milankavitch cycles, and expand on what has turned out to be true about solar cycles according to Theodor Landscheidt, ( the only one to correctly forecast the long solar minimum we are passing through). The evidence points to the natural variability factors as being the effects of the rotation or the galaxy and the swirl imparted to the local area of the spiral arm we seem to reside in (Milankavich), and by the inertial dampening of the planets effects on the barycenter of the solar system, moves the sun’s center of mass around as it tries to stay magnetically and gravitationally centered in the swirling magnetic fields, plasma, and dust clouds, and other stars joining us in this dance to the celestial music as it were.
(Landscheidt) Found the driving forces of the Inertial dampening of the system and defined it to the point of predictability, it only seems that that the next steps would be to analyze the effects of the interactions of the Inner planets, which have a rhythmic pattern to their orbital relationships, and their relations to the weather patterns they share. Most good discoveries come from the individuals who seek the truth with out consideration for the limited vision of the thundering herd mentality.
With climategate we have seen the latest stampede, of hurried angst ridden, fear mongering, driving of the ignorant sheep of the world away from the truth and into the pens. By the politically minded “think they know what the rest of us need crowd,” that are controlling the funds, research orientation, and imposing their goals upon the process, to achieve profits as they see fit, to stay in power.
I have quietly undertaken the study of the relationships between the interactions of the Sun’s magnetic fields borne on the solar wind, and it’s interactions with the Earth’s weather patterns to the point I have found the cyclic patterns of the shorter decadeal durations, that show up as the natural background variances in the climate RAW data sets. Starting with the history of research into planetary motions and the Lunar declination,(the Earth / Moon system’s response to the rotation of the magnetic poles of the sun. In order to find a natural analog to the patterns in the weather there were several things I had to consider.
The results of the analog cyclic pattern I discovered repeat with in a complex pattern of Inner planet harmonics, and outer planet longer term interferences that come round to the 172 year pattern Landscheidt discovered, so this is just the shorter period set of variables, that further define the limits, of the natural variables needed to be considered, along side the CO2 hypothesis, as the longer term/period parents (Milankivich and Landscheidt cycles) of these driving forces are valid. It would be in error if they were not considered and calculated into the filtering of the swings in the climate data, for forecasting longer terms into the future.
A sample of the cyclic pattern found in the meteorological database is presented as a composite of the past three cycles composited together and plotted onto maps for a 5 year period starting in 2008, and running to January of 2014, on a rough draft website I use to further define the shifts in the pattern from the past three to the current cycle, to continue learning about the details of the interactions.
http://www.aerology.com
The building of Stonehenge at the end of the last ice age, was done as the weather in the area was changing from tundra, to grasses and shrubs, in waves from the El nino effects at the time.
They began a study of the relationship between the Solar and Lunar declinational movement timing, found the lunar 18.6 year Mn minimum/maximum declinational cycle, the 19 year Metonic cycle where the moon is at the same phase and maximum declination on the same date every 19 years, and the 6585 day Saris cycle of eclipses.
From combining the annual seasonal effects of apparent solar declination, and the short term effects of the Lunar declinational movement. The Incas and Mayans understood repeating weather patterns well enough to build a thriving culture, that supported a much larger population, than the area currently barely supports in poverty.
Then along came the Conquistadors, that were assumed to be the gods foretold in prophecy, who took over and killed off the high priests and the learned class (because the Catholic priests with them were convinced, they were idolaters and heretics.) so all were lost that understood how the “Pagan religion†was able to grow that much food with little problems, by the timing of celebrations and festivals that the people partook of, in a joyous and productive mood.
The Mayan stone masons who were busy carving out the next stone block to carve another 300 years of calendar upon, were put to work mining gold to export back to Spain. So with the next stone block unfinished, and in the rough, still in the quarry the Mayan calendar comes to an end in 2012.
Most of the population of the area was either killed in battles, or worked to death, while on cocaine to minimize food consumption, and mined gold for export by the false gods.
At home in Europe the Spanish inquisition sought to wipe out the fund of knowledge, (that went underground) about the interactions of the Solar and Lunar declinational movements and other sidereal stellar influences on people, and things in the natural world. As the result of mass killings, and book burnings much knowledge, and data history was lost.
Nicolas Copernicus, (19, February 1473 – 24 May 1543) and Nostradamus, (21 December, 1503 – 2 July 1566) Were around at about the same time and may have collaborated in person, or through a net work of underground friends. To give Nostradamus the idea to convert the data sets of past history sorted by geocentric astrology locations and positions, to a Heliocentric data base from which he drew his famous quatrains. There are many references to late night calculations, aside observations that may have given him his accuracy. Then along came Galileo Galilie , (15, February, 1564 – 8 January, 1642) with proof, that round moons circled round planets.
With the advent of good fast cheap computers, I was able to look at data sets ( although with considerably less coverage due to centuries of suppression,) and sort for Planetary and Lunar influences, and found that the Lunar declinational component, of the orbital movements, of the Moon, was responsible for the driving, of the Rossby Wave patterns, in sync with the lunar declinational tidal forces at work in the atmosphere.
How does this all work you ask? Well there is a magnetic field that surrounds the sun, and magnetic fields, that are invested in the body of the Galaxy. These large scale standing fields, interact to produce fluctuations in the strength of the fields felt upon the Earth as it moves in it’s orbit.
The poles of the Earth are tilted to the axis of the solar system ~23 ½ degrees, giving us the changing seasons. The sun on the other hand is different it’s axis of rotation is vertical, but the magnet poles are tilted ~12 degrees, so as it rotates on an average of 27.325 day period, the polarity of the magnetic fields felt via the solar wind, shifts from the result of the orientation determined by the position of the rotating magnetic poles of the sun.
The inner core of the moon has frozen, the outer core of the Earth is still molten, and a concentration of the magnetically permeable materials that make up the earth. These pulses of alternating North then South magnetic field shifts has been going on since before the Earth condensed into a planet and then was later struck by a Mars sized object (so the current theory goes), that splashed off most of the crust.
Most returned to the Earth, some was lost into interplanetary space, and some condensed into the moon. Somewhere in the process the center of mass of the moon gravitated toward the surface that faces the Earth, before it froze, causing that denser side to always face the Earth.
It is not the center of mass of the Earth that scribes the orbital path of the Earth about the sun but the center of mass of the composite Earth / moon barycenter that lies about 1,200 kilometers off of the center of mass of the Earth, always positioned between the center of the earth and the center of the Moon. So as the Moon rotates around the earth to create the lunar light phases, the center of mass of the earth goes from inside to out side, around the common barycenter. As the Moon moves North / South in it’s declination, the center of mass of the earth goes the opposite direction to counter balance, around their common barycenter that scribes the smooth ellipse of the orbit around the sun. So really the Earth makes 13 loops like a strung out spring every year.
The magnetic impulses in the solar wind has driven the Moon / Earth into the declinational dance that creates the tides in phase in the atmosphere, because of the pendulum type movement the Moon hangs at the extremes of declination almost three days with in a couple of degrees then makes a fast sweep across the equator at up to 7 to 9 degrees per day. At these culminations of declination movement the polarity of the solar wind peaks and reverses, causing a surge in the reversal of the ion flux generated as a result. Because of the combination of both peak of Meridian flow surge in the atmosphere, and reversal of ion charge gradient globally occurs at the same time like clock work most severe weather occurs at these times.
Because of the semi boundary conditions caused by mountain ranges, the Rockies, Andes, Urals, Alps, Himalayas, that resulted in topographical forcing into a four fold pattern of types of Jet stream patterns, I had to use not a 27.325 day period but a 109.3 day period to synchronize the lunar declinational patterns into the data to get clearer repeatability than the same data set filtered by Lunar phase alone.
There is a pattern of 6554 days where in the inner planets, Mars, Earth, Venus, and Mercury, make an even number of orbital revolutions, and return to almost the same relative position to the star field.
By adding 4 days to this period I get 6558 days the time it takes the Moon to have 240 declinational cycles of 27.325 days, so that by using 6558 days as a synchronization period I get the lunar Declination angle, lunar phase, perigee / apogee cycle, and the relative positions of the inner planets to align from the past three (6558 day) cycles well enough that the average of the temperatures, and the totals of the precipitations give a picture of the repeating pattern, from the last three to forecast the next almost 18 year long string of weather related events, with a better accuracy than the forecast available for three to five days from NOW from conventional NWS / NOAA sources.
So by looking at the periods of declinational movement and the four fold pattern of Rossby wave propagation, while maintaining the inner planet synchronization. I get all of these influences in sync to look almost the same, as the current conditions, even to periods of hail, and tornado production.
When the outer planets are added into the mix, they are out of phase in regard to the inner planet / Lunar patterns, and their influences are not in Sync with these background patterns. There are lines of magnetic force that connect each planet to the sun, and these revolve around with the planets naturally.
As the Earth’s orbit takes it between these outer planets and the sun (at Synodic conjunctions), the increase in magnetic fields carried via the solar wind, (to effect this outer planet coupling) is felt upon the Earth’s magnetosphere, and results in a temporary increase in the pole to equator charge gradient then a discharge back to ambient levels (about a two week long up then down cycle time), how this interferes or combines with the “usual lunar / inner planet patterns†is determined by whether it is in, or out of phase with the background patterns.
During normal charge cycles more moisture is driven into the atmosphere carrying positive Ions, along the ITCZ, and in discharge cycle phases waves of free electrons, and negative ions are sent down from the poles into the mid-latitudes. Charge cycles inhibit precipitation amounts and discharge cycles produce increased precipitation amounts along existing frontal boundaries, due to changes in residual ion charge differences between the air masses.
There is a seasonal increase in magnetic fields coupled from the center of out galaxy to the sun that peaks in mid June (summer solstice), and then decreases till winter solstice. As the magnetic charging cycle associated with this build up in Northern hemisphere Spring, it brings on a bias for surges of positive ionized air masses, that produces surges of tornadoes in phase with the lunar declinational culminations, and other severe weather, will also be enhanced by Synod conjunctions with outer planets, by the same increases of positively charged ions. The closer the timing of the conjunction to a peak lunar culmination the sharper the spike of production, like cracking a whip.
During discharge phases from summer solstice through fall in general, tropical storms manifest as large scale discharge patterns to ring the moisture, heat, and excess ions out of the tropical air masses. Outer planets conjunctions at these times help to build moisture reserves in the atmosphere, during their ion charge contribution, and enhance storms to category 4 and 5 levels when in phase with their discharge phase influences. So to say that the planets have no real influence on the world in general, is the same as to totally disregard how much the weather, effects how people live and survive.
I think that the influences felt at the surface, are just changes in the back ground stimuli, and not strongly controlling enough to lose free will, when we chose to interact with the total spectrum of stimuli that surrounds us at any particular moment. The 18+ year long repeating pattern is long enough that the other conditions surrounding a person have changed, via plant growth, soil changes, age, or location on the surface of the earth, since the last cycle.
On the ground, all plants that have roots in the soil share soil ions and nutrients, via microbial sharing, fungal predation, and companion plants that support each other. The organic matter from past growth that gives up valuable nutrients as it decays, and adds texture to the soil for better aeration and moisture penetration, form a mat of interacting processes, that breath life into the environment.
Re:
Phillip Bratby (09:23:41) :
Love this. Microsoft helping out: http://smallestminority.blogspot.com/2009/12/zing.html
Thanks for the belly laugh! Brilliant!
Wondering Aloud (13:16:38) :
“…from several things I have read it sounds to me like Wigley is a true believer but I am not seeing him fudging the data but rather questioning those who are.”
WA, have you seen this Wigley email to Jones? click
David L. Hagen (12:38:10) :
Good question, David. Far as I know, there has been nothing other than acquiescence by silence to outright agreement. The time for Mann to distance himself from what was going on for a very long time was … a very long time ago.
If he was uncomfortable or had objections, there would have been that trail to follow.
What I am seeing is a lot of inner circle CYA Johnny-come-lately, and that has to be what top officials are seeing at the institutions that are taking a beating.
Richard Lawson (13:06:38)
For over 3 years I have been writing to Mark Thompson (BBC Director General) and Sir Michael Lyons (Chairman, BBC Trust) about the organisation’s absolute bias towards the ‘consensus’ on climate change.
All I have received for my troubles is sophistry and obfuscation. This is probably explained because:
A BBC report; “From Seesaw to Wagon Wheel-Safeguarding Impartiality in the 21st Century”, commissioned jointly by the BBC Trust and Board of Management and published in June 2007 concluded;
‘There may be now a broad scientific consensus that climate change is definitely happening and that it is at least predominantly man-made… the weight of evidence no longer justifies equal space being given to the opponents of the consensus’
So there you have it, damned by their own hand…yet STILL they refuse to admit it! And that is why they have kept quiet about Climategate.
Anyone interested in taking the same road as me should write to:
Mark Thompson Esq
Director General
BBC Broadcasting House
Portland Place
London
W1A 1AA
Mark your envelope: Strictly Private & Confidential
If his desk gets deluged with letters from irate licence-fee payers, he will have to recognise he has a problem.
It would also be helpful to get your MP involved.
Happy stirring!
“Prof Mann then argued however that there was ‘absolutely no evidence’ that he too had manipulated data…”
I believe Mann stood the proxy world on its head with his recent papers.
With a friend like Michael Mann, who needs enemies? Seriously, what an SOB to throw Jones under the bus. If he was a Real Man, he would stand beside Jones and take his lumps.
More emails to come????
From:
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: UEA Investigation
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 2009 01:51:24 -0600
Cc: Benjamin Santer , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen
YOU SAID WHAT????
From: Michael Mann
To:
Subject: Re: UEA Investigation
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 2009 01:31:24 -0600
Cc: Benjamin Santer , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen
Um… Phil take as much time off as you want and to better relax stay away
from the newspapers and news web sites for a while.
In particular the Telegraph.
From:
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: UEA Investigation
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 2009 01:01:24 -0600
Cc: Benjamin Santer , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen
Michael et al,
I am doing well thanks for asking. Just to let you all know I was
planning on taking in the sights in Denmark before the AGU meeting
so my “stepping aside” is just something we told the press.
Does anyone think I would REALLY step aside after all the hard work
and money I made for the UEA.
Michael, regarding Sir Muir Russell I think you Americans have a phrase:
“the fix is in”? He’s an old cribbage friend who can be counted on so
now worries over here.
Just make sure you down play my earlier request to delete all AR4 emails
and stick with the line that my email was “taken out of context”.
Daryl M (13:49:56) :
“With a friend like Michael Mann, who needs enemies? Seriously, what an SOB to throw Jones under the bus. If he was a Real Man, he would stand beside Jones and take his lumps.”
Actually hugely risky; I’m sure Jones knows where the bodies are buried and he is quite capable of taking Mann (and the rest) down with him.
Manns reputation is declining every time he opens his mouth. Perhaps he may find a way to hide the decline.
Link to the original Radio 4 interview with Michael Mann:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00p1mvf#synopsis
Starts 18.40 mins into the show.
Title:”The row intensifies over leaked emails on climate change.”
If you listen right though there is woven discussion about state science and its relationship with the public that shows just how difficult it is to polarise this debate between goodies and badies, left/right etc. It finishes with David Nutt, sacked for saying Extasy is a Class A drug, saying this is a fact just as global warming is a fact – and because the scientific evidence points to this fact then there should be no disputing it, no debate, finished.
A crucial mail is, I think, this one: http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=424&filename=1092418712.txt
The background appears to be that Jones has received a paper to review by RR McKitrick & PJ Michaels called “A Socioeconomic Fingerprint on the Spatial Distribution of Surface Air Temperature Trends”, submitted to International Journal of Climatology. The paper is attached to an email from Andrew Comrie which Jones forwards to Mann, with a brief comment which starts “The paper!”.
In http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=424&filename=1092418712.txt, Mann is acknowledging receipt of Jones’ email.
Circulating a manuscript received for review without the consent of the editor and the authors of the manuscript is a completely unacceptable action. Mann could have said: “Err, Phil, thanks a bunch for the message. It is, however, foolish and incorrect to circulate a manuscript which you have received for review except among the editorial board of the journal in question. I will delete the copy you sent me, and please don’t do this again”.
Rather than remind Jones of basic ethics, Mann indicates that he would like to “forward this to the chair of our commitee confidentially, and for his internal purposes only, to help bolster the case against MM [McKitrick and Michaels]?”. This shows that Mann received the manuscript gladly, and contemplated using possession of it to grind a very definite axe, and taking care that his unauthorized possession of it should be kept secret.
Unless it is a fake, the contents of this email alone are sufficient to ensure neither of them ever reviews for an academic journal again, occupies an editorial position or sits on a grant-awarding panel. Not a nice position for an academic. If you’re old enough, you can retire. If not, …
““Prof Mann then argued however that there was “absolutely no evidence” that he too had manipulated data…””
Right. This is the same “Meltdown” Mann who just days ago published a paper with the lake-sediment data turned upside-down, right? The same guy who, scant months ago, published a paper claiming East Antarctic warming which was based entirely on “interpolated” (i.e. made-up) temp readings? The same guy who created the statistical AlGorHythm: a routine which will take any set of inputs and generate a hockey-stick?
Oh, yeah. Never manipulated anything. And OJ is still looking for the real killers.
There was a young man from east Anglia,
Who put his data through the upside down Manngler,
He exclaimed with surprise
“That’s a fall not a rise!
We must make the code even tanglier.”
[REPLY – Sorry, we’re out of extra copies of Bold Fresh. ~ Evan]