From the “WUWT never reports warm events” department: After a drop last month, this is not unexpected, given the time of year. With an El Nino present the tropics and southern hemisphere warmed the most.
November 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.50 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511
2009 10 +0.286 +0.274 +0.297 +0.326
2009 11 +0.496 +0.418 +0.575 +0.493
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly rebounded from +0.29 deg. C in October to +0.50 deg. C in November. Both hemispheres, as well as the tropics, contributed to this warmth. The global anomaly for November of +0.50 deg. C is a period record for November (since 1979); the previous November high was +0.40 deg C. in 2004.
Following is the global-average sea surface temperature anomalies through November 2009 from the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite:
As usual, the trend line in the previous figure should not be construed as having any predictive power whatsoever — it is for entertainment purposes only.
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Michael (21:25:42) : copied from your posted leaked e-mail:
“our proven track record as the only UK university which has covered and can cover all aspects of the climate issue from hard science to policy and philosophy.”
We knew it all along but they admit it themselves that they go beyond hard science.
I see that some people here question this data. We should not. Let us not behave like warmists, but accept what is and isn’t happening. The UAH and RSS are the only two data that we can reasonably trust. If warming in the LT continued then we’d have something to answer, no matter how uncomfortable it may be. However, my personal belief is that it will fall again – and the warmists will have to explain why. Let’s trust Christy, Spencer etc. as this is the best of a less-than-perfect bunch of ways to study the temperature anomaly if there is one.
Just out of curiosity, why a 13-months running average ?
I would have expected a 12-months, to even up seasonal effects.
BernieL: You asked, “Some of us non-experts are wondering how big el nino is looking to be, and if that is likely to push a new air temp record during 2010 (during a continuing solar min? and as predicted by Hansen).”
I don’t make predictions. But for this El Nino there have been lots of concern about it turning into a Super El Nino, so I did a quick comparison of subsurface images.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/will-200910-el-nino-become-super-el.html
My conclusion read, So if these comparisons of subsurface anomalies can be used as a predictor of the peak SST anomalies, the current El Nino would peak somewhere between the 1991/92 El Nino and the 1972/73 El Nino. Will it? Dunno. I don’t make predictions. The current El Nino may have some surprises in store.
Here’s a graph of NINO3.4 SST anomalies that include those El Nino events:
http://i35.tinypic.com/73du8j.png
And being at a continuing solar minimum versus a “normal length ” solar minimum would have no effect on the amount of energy introduced into tropical Pacific Ocean during the last La Nina event(s). It is lower than it would be if the solar cycle was at maximum, but minimum is minimum.
The amount of downward shortwave radiation introduced during a La Nina also appears to be depedent on the strength of the Trade Winds at the time. The 1995/96 La Nina wasn’t anything exceptional, but the curious 1995/96 upsurge in tropical Pacific OHC…
http://i36.tinypic.com/eqwdvl.png
…was explained in McPhaden (1999) “Genesis and Evolution of the 1997-98 El Nino.” It is the result of “stronger than normal trade winds associated with a weak La Nina in 1995–96.”
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/mcph2029/text.shtml
The stronger trade winds reduce cloud amount, which, in turn, allows more DSR to warm the ocean. The stronger trade winds also feed that warm water to the Pacific Warm Pool at an elevated rate.
The relationships are explained in detail in my post “More Detail On The Multiyear Aftereffects Of ENSO – Part 2 – La Nina Events Recharge The Heat Released By El Nino Events AND During Major Traditional ENSO Events, Warm Water Is Redistributed Via Ocean Currents”.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/more-detail-on-multiyear-aftereffects_26.html
The oceans vary the rate at which they release energy to the air.
The upper atmosphere varies in the rate at which energy is released to space.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/AGU-SABER.html
Contrary to expectations an active sun cools the upper atmosphere and a quiet sun permits it to warm.
The Earth system temperature and especially the energy in the troposphere depends on the interplay.
I have tried to analyse the climate implications here:
http://climaterealists.com/attachments/database/The%20Missing%20Climate%20Link.pdf
Yesterday I updated my ongoing 12 month temperature tracking based on 100+ year Bureau of Meteorology records from 32 locations within the 2.5 million square kilometres of Western Australia, and the results are in line with the UAH readings for a jump in southern hemisphere temps in November.
In the 12 months to and including October, the average mean minimum at all 32 locations combined was .39 degrees C higher than the average in the early 1900s. The average maximum was .6 degrees C higher. However, in the 12 months to and including November, the average mean minimum was .49 degrees C higher and the average mean maximum was .89 degrees C higher than 100 years earlier… i.e. November was unusually warm across Western Australia, reversing an earlier cooling trend. See http://www.waclimate.net
A 1 year vs 30 year comparison from the early 1900s isn’t valid but it was by far the biggest increase in maxima that I’ve seen since I started calculating the monthly comparison about six months ago. The cynic in me wonders if the BoM itself warmed things up in November in preparation for Copenhagen, but I can see no evidence of such.
OT – Stephane (18:49:50) :
This is the reason why i am ashame to be a Quebecois sometime. Jean-charest is under fire right now. The liberal party has been found to be involved in corruption relating to contrac given to construction company. They have also been pushing lots and lots of law lately like lowering alchool limit from 0.08 to 0.05, forcing poeple to wear helmet will riding bicicle, raising taxes, …….
Since you mention bicycle helmet laws, I can’t resist pointing to another site I maintain at http://www.cycle-helmets.com
I often marvel at the similarity between the climate change and bicycle helmet debates – statistical evidence vs a profound public belief (largely based on parental fear). The pre and post helmet law results in Western Australia clearly show more annual hospital admissions despite about 30% less people cycling (and keeping fit) because of the law. Several hundred more cyclists end up in hospital each year compared to pre-law road numbers, including more head injuries because of the significantly increased overall accident rate. Since 1992, it’s been impossible to find a law supporter or journalist who will even look at the government’s own hospital and road survey data and I cop abuse for pointing out the facts … which is exactly what happens when I talk about climate change. Never let the facts get in the way of a popular belief.
If anybody wants to abuse me because of my helmet site, please do so via my site rather than this forum because the moderators won’t be impressed.
Reply: As long as you’re not talking about tinfoil helmets it’s fine with me. ~ ctm
ctm: “As long as you’re not talking about tinfoil helmets it’s fine with me.”
Another great response. We’re gonna have to create a thread with ctm-isms.
Jurav
Look here. There is potential for extreme cold just after or during the COP15
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx
tallbloke (00:10:03) :
It surely is not helping warm things here, mid-US Pacific coast. The real cold will hit this weekend.
Richard (22:54:32) :
And I wonder if Boxer would even change her tune if a foot of snow fell in Sacramento or the doors to Congress froze shut. There’s nothing else out there because nothing else is allowed in there.
rbateman (21:40:13) :
And after that, it’s downhill quickly with an idle Sun not holding the equilibrium in place. And that would be the last thing you would want to see happen.
Nah, heck, everyone is up for damaged crops from cold, especially poor countries. They think it’s a hoot.
Gene Nemetz (03:27:17) :
One of my favorite quips is “driving the wrong way on the freeway”.
I had the unenviable pleasure one day of seeing a speeding car coming over a rise on US 395 …straight for me. I had time to put the car on the inside freeway shoulder, and not a split second more. The white car was by me in a flash, and all I could see in the rear-view mirror were cars scattering left & right.
When policy is aimed opposite the flow of nature, things will be upon us in an instant.
Would anyone know where I could find global land surface temperature anomaly maps for November 2009? – sorry lost the link.
The Eastern half of South Africa has been experiencing below average temperatures since early November, and near constant rain and cold; different from the hot and dry conditions normally experienced during El Nino.
pat:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/08/spurious-sst-warming-revisited/
I guess the msm will be all over this like flys to (snip)
Please forgive my ignorance, but I wonder if someone could explain.
From my school chemistry days the by products of burning fossil fuels were CO2 and H20. If water vapour is a more potent greehouse gas than CO2 why aren’t we more concerned about the H2O in the atmosphere. Also does anyone know just how much water has been released through burning fossil fuels and what effect, if any, this might have on sea levels.
Be kind, just trying to learn :o)
Thanks.
@PaulH The AGW thesis was that the CO2 was supposed to produce a hot spot in the lower stratosphere due to increased evaporation. Needless to say, it has not been observed. The thing with water vapor is that while it may absorb a lot of energy, it releases it when it condenses and creates a thing (aka a cloud) that has a high albedo that reflects the incoming solar energy back out into space. It is somewhat self correcting.
The re-intensification of the El Nino is interesting in the context of Ian Pilmer’s thesis that earthquake swarms in the area off of Asia have a triggering effect on the El Nino. We certainly have had some interesting earthquake activity this year and the El Nino re-intensified. Correlation is not causation, but it is interesting none the less.
just a question the sst anomalies go from 60 north to 60 south, is there a global figure, is this the scenario on the amsu website, and finally is the .5 figure representative of the entire globe or is it missing parts of the antarctic and arctic ?
just a few questions: the sst anomalies go from 60north to 60 south, is there a global figure, is this what is repesented on the amsu website and finally is the .5 figure representative of the entire globe or is it missing parts of the antartic and artic?
If anybody wants to abuse me because of my helmet site, please do so via my site rather than this forum because the moderators won’t be impressed.
Reply: As long as you’re not talking about tinfoil helmets it’s fine with me. ~ ctm
When I think about it, the mandatory bicycle helmet issue is entirely relevant to climate change so abuse of my site can be channeled through WUWT without upsetting anyone (except me if the abuse is really, really good :-).
Australia has just changed the leadership of a major political party and as a result its Senate has rejected proposed laws aimed at cutting greenhouse gases, with the legislation to again be tabled in February. Yet it is one of only two countries in the world that actively discourages cycling and thus encourages the use of motor cars through the imposition of national all-age bicycle helmet laws. Repeal Australia’s bike helmet laws and it’s guaranteed to cut greenhouse gases.
Maybe new Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott should take note if he seriously wants alternative ways to cut greenhouse gases other than an Emissions Trading Scheme, if he seriously wants the Liberal Party to oppose Labor policies, or if he seriously wants the Liberal Party to represent liberty.
Does anyone know why Hudson bay is freezing slower than normal this year?
Prof.Piers Corbyn has issued a document which says:
Prof Phil Jones has ‘stood aside’ (1st Dec) as Director of the Climatic Research Unit (‘CRU’) of the University of East Anglia while an ‘independent’ review of ClimateGate is carried out.
“This is a token intended to enable a coverup of the shameful suppression of differing science and the hiding of data on world cooling by those in charge of this data.”
http://www.scribd.com/doc/23595663
Ben M (23:33:03) :
Anthony, can you put a straight trend line on that? Looks to my untrained, naked eye that we’ve warmed about 0.3C in 30 years. Or 0.1C per decade.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/plot/uah/trend
Pretty close Ben, about 1.2c per decade.
Thank you, Stephen Wilde. So, heat is indeed stored in the oceans, which periodically release heat to the atmosphere, where periodically it is released to space.
oops… that would be .12c per decade. I should try proof reading.