UAH global temperature anomaly for November, up again

From the “WUWT never reports warm events” department: After a drop last month, this is not unexpected, given the time of year. With an El Nino present the tropics and southern hemisphere warmed the most.

November 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.50 deg. C

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.


2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036

2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051

2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149

2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014

2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166

2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003

2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427

2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456

2009 9 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511

2009 10 +0.286 +0.274 +0.297 +0.326

2009 11 +0.496 +0.418 +0.575 +0.493


The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly rebounded from +0.29 deg. C in October to +0.50 deg. C in November. Both hemispheres, as well as the tropics, contributed to this warmth. The global anomaly for November of +0.50 deg. C is a period record for November (since 1979); the previous November high was +0.40 deg C. in 2004.

Following is the global-average sea surface temperature anomalies through November 2009 from the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite:


As usual, the trend line in the previous figure should not be construed as having any predictive power whatsoever — it is for entertainment purposes only.


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Didn’t these people throw out some large number of the ocean robot temperature takers? It seems to me that these temperature trends seem to be linked more with them dropping stations that are trending cooler and relying on more and more stations trending higher?
Any smarter than me people have a position or experience on this?

The rise in TLT anomalies reflects the jump in NINO3.4 SST anomalies during November. I posted the preliminary global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies a couple of days ago.
NOAA will post the official monthly data for November on December 6th, but the monthly values are in line with the weekly data (also in that post) and the weekly data is official.


Is the Current Anomally better, or worse than we expected, compared to the Medieval Anomally?


This is the reason why i am ashame to be a Quebecois sometime. Jean-charest is under fire right now. The liberal party has been found to be involved in corruption relating to contrac given to construction company. They have also been pushing lots and lots of law lately like lowering alchool limit from 0.08 to 0.05, forcing poeple to wear helmet will riding bicicle, raising taxes, ……. there is lots and lots more but the most important thing is that they are pushing lots of new environnemental law. The poeple are getting really mad seeing everything that is going on right now and especially since we were threated like ginuea pig lately whit the A H1N1. The governement has been pushing the vaccine on us and threatening people to force vaccination on them and now putting pregnate women in isolation if they refuse the vaccine. 50% at least of the pregnate women refused to get vaccinated and between 30% to 40% of the population was vaccinated even tho they were saying we needed a minimum of 80%.

Michael hauber

‘Is the Current Anomally better, or worse than we expected, compared to the Medieval Anomally?’
Uah only goes back 30 years so we don’t really know 😀


November was really nice in North Texas. Mostly sunny and temps 5 degrees above normal.
But, December is starting out 5 degrees below normal.


Of course, Whistler shattered its all time record for snow in November.

Aaron W.

The temps should have climbed, the el nino has strengthened.

Robert of Canada

Holy sh*t, we’re all going to die. (Well, actually, we all are, unfortunately (sorry to break the news)). But this is, I believe, El Nino.

Neil O'Rourke

Hehe… so this ‘Temperature Anomaly’ number has been shown to be the climate equivelent of a FICO score: an intesting number because of the secrecy of it’s creation but utterly useless in it’s predictive power.


Confusion is normal for me so I feel no shame by asking this question.
If surface temperatures increase and let’s totally ignore the issues of veracity or relevance of what the numbers actually represent, does that mean that more thermal energy is transported into space at a time when the thermal influx is somewhat waning.
So we’re losing Joules, mayhaps, but still warming!
This CO2 stuff is truly amazing!

Anybody know the margin of errors on those measurements?

Eric Rasmusen

I can’t find a contact email, so I’ll make this comment here.
I see that you put RealClimate on your blogroll (good) and RealClimate does not have you and Climate Audit (bad). Someone should point this out to the blogosphere, perhaps in a post with traffic statistics. Blogosphere geeks would find this significant info about openness to discussion.


And what strength is this El Nino?
Weak, Moderate, Strong ??

Robert of Canada

Stephane (18:49:50) :
Je vous comprende. Comme habitant, vous n’avez pas de chois, mais beaucoup de joix. Malheureusement, votre gouvernement est laxe, il s’en fut du peuple. Pourquoi? Parceque le peuple le lesse. Je m’en fut de vos pleintes!! Vous ne faissez de rien!

We had one of the warmest Novembers ever here in Saskatchewan, Canada. That makes record breaking cold August and July. Record breaking warm September. Record breaking cold October … and now an El Nino November from heaven.

Richard M

Up, down, up, down … Yes, if recent history is any predictor then Dec. is likely to be down. After a warm Nov. in the midwest we are also getting cool temps to start the new month.
Predicting snow for Houston on TWC. That should take some of the luster off the warm November.


The last thing you want when the earth is cooling is for high surface temperatures to happen. That’ll cause the planet to lose more heat and accelerate the decline! Time to start praying for Mr Sol to spark up.


I believe Senator James Inhofe should call for an FCC investigation of the MSM networks for ignoring their fiduciary responsibility and purposely failing to report the greatest scientific fraud of our time. Perhaps a few networks should lose their FCC license over the blatant lies of omission perpetrated by the networks.


The Northern Hemisphere came in about where I expected … higher anomaly than October but less than September. It was the Southern Hemisphere that was the “shocker” for me.

Robert M

In your opinion, how trustworthy is this dataset?

David Walton

Bob Tisdale — thanks for the sea surface temps. I note you say:
“If one considers only the linear relationship between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and Global Temperaures, if NINO3.4 SST anomalies were to rise x deg C, then global temperatures should respond approximately three to six months later by rising x deg C multiplied by a factor of approximately 0.09.”
Some of us non-experts are wondering how big el nino is looking to be, and if that is likely to push a new air temp record during 2010 (during a continuing solar min? and as predicted by Hansen).

Bill Illis

I would say these numbers are unexpectedly high. They are obviously El Nino influenced and the tropics change shows this to be the case, but it shouldn’t have had made this much change for November.
There is variability and this could be one of those. But we will have to watch and see if the El Nino moves temperatures even higher in the months ahead because history says there is more to come yet.
The El Nino peak is forecast for early January and temperatures should peak about 3 months after this.


So, is this trend mainly driven by the SST’s? Are the warmer SST’s driven by the lack of Hurricanes? What are the land trends?
I tend to think the good ole Ocean is serving it’s governor function.


In Lord Monckton’s latest paper he states that the satellites are calibrated using the surface temp data. (note: SPPI seems to have taken down the long paper he posted yesterday and substituted a very short one). I guess this only affects the starting point and not the ongoing data:
“Since the satellites do not have thermometers on board, and would be in the wrong place for taking the Earth’s near-surface temperature even if they had them, their atmospheric measurements have to be processed and reconstructed so as to become a temperature record. That requires the measurements to be calibrated. And what are they calibrated against? The instrumental surface-temperature record, of course. Therefore, if the surface temperature record has been accidentally or artificially enhanced in order to show greater warming than what has in truth occurred, the satellite temperature records that were originally calibrated against it would tend to show the same inaccurate overstatement of “global warming”.”


Plus there was a blocking ridge dominating the East Pacific for much of the month.

D. King

In my opinion (since 2002 at least) UAH is probably best temperature trend metric available. The station keeping satellite solved a lot of problems
Humans don’t control physics, except for super humans like Mann.


This “cold phase” PDO recently experienced a “warm spike” which reinvigorated the El Nino. Waiting for PDO Index November numbers.
SST Sep was 0.52, Oct 0.27. If trend in PDO continues into negative territory, perhaps this El Nino will weaken and eventually fizzle out.

David Walton

D. King (20:11:24) :
A crack may be forming.
“A crack” is an apt description.
I did a few searches of the LA Times and this story appears to be their first mention of the climategate emails. It is a whopping 31 word, single sentence (not including the headline).

From the above mentioned LATimes article”
…Boxer said. “To me, what’s important is, e-mails aside, is there global warming? Is it being affected by human activity? And there’s nothing out there that says otherwise.”
I think she has it bass ackwards.


not having any scientific background whatsoever, i would like someone on this site to explain if anything in the following link is meaningful. thanx.
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D. | August 27, 2009


O.K. Been looking for this. Here’ s a forecast where Joe Bastardi is making his NA winter weather forecast, and he’s talking about this El Nino. The long and short of it is that it ain’t showing up in the atmospheric data like the 90’s ones did.
I guess the video must be on the Accuweather pro site. Nuts.


not sure if the url went thru properly. please note:
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D. | August 27, 2009

Dr A Burns

Briffa 1998 shows N hemisphere temperatures falling steeply from 1945 to 1978, a slight rise to 1984, the a fall again.
Is there any other data to support this trend ?
Radiosonde data seems to roughly fit the post 1958 section.

David Walton

Re: David Walton (20:28:10) :
It is a whopping 31 word, single sentence (not including the headline).
Ooops, I didn’t scroll down far enough on the first pass. Much longer.

Christopher Byrne

O/T In case you still thought climate scientists weren’t politicians, it looks like Phil Jones just starred in his first political cartoon…


In the LA Times article linked to by D King it says this:
“‘The e-mails do nothing to undermine the very strong scientific consensus . . . that tells us the earth is warming, that warming is largely a result of human activity,’ Jane Lubchenco, who heads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told a House committee. She said that the e-mails don’t cover data from NOAA and NASA, whose independent climate records show dramatic warming.”
However, that is a direct contradiciton to this said by CRU in response to their raw data being destroyed:
“Refuting CEI’s claims of data-destruction, Jones said, ‘We haven’t destroyed anything. The data is still there — you can still get these stations from the [NOAA] National Climatic Data Center.'”
So how can NOAA and CRU be completely independent while at the same time saying that NOAA has all CRU’s data? These guys either can’t get their stories straight or they know they are lying but hoping to not have people realize what they say in one part of the world will also show up in other parts of the world to see if the stories match. Actually if you look into what CRU says about the data destruction, they just wont admit that they destroyed their unique data but are instead trying to trick people into thinking two different data sets are the same data set (with all their tweaking and incestuous relationships, I think they make sure their numbers basically match, but it doesn’t mean you can say the raw NOAA data is the raw CRU data).

Ipse Dixit

Perhaps someone can tell me how ENSO causes an increase in global temperature. Is ENSO a release of stored energy? I understand that ENSO causes predictable weather changes, with some places becoming hotter and wetter and others becoming colder and drier or some combination of the states. But it would seem that globally temperatures would balance out, ENSO or not. Or is there a problem with data collection?


Ben Santer needs to be invistigated. HIs letter is his attempt at PR now that his hand has been caught in the cookie jar. Santer in his emails made it very clear that he was obstructing FOIA requests in coordination with CRU’s own FOIA obstruction. He also pre-emptively calls the leak something done by a criminal hacker, but of course we don’t know who did the leak, so they very well could have been a whistleblower who would be entitled to protections. These emails also weren’t private as they related to work paid for by the taxpayer, but he just shows how he thinks he’s got his own little fiefdom.

Gene Nemetz

Aaron W. (19:04:15) :
The temps should have climbed, the el nino has strengthened.
So what happens when the energy from El Nino dissipates?

April E. Coggins

All I did was talk to the Independent about what I thought 2007 had in store weatherwise. With an El Nino going on, I thought it might be a record and just trotted off the typical things that happen in El Nino years.


“Or is there a problem with data collection?”
I expect the more we look into this, we will see there are problems with data collection…at least to when it comes to if the world’s economies shold be reworked.

Gene Nemetz

royfomr (19:26:23) :
The last thing you want when the earth is cooling is for high surface temperatures to happen. That’ll cause the planet to lose more heat and accelerate the decline! Time to start praying for Mr Sol to spark up.
I was thinking the same thing. But the sun isn’t in the mood.
Would you like a little ice with your crops?

Gene Nemetz

chainpin (20:28:09) :
A letter to the community from Ben Santer:
If we don’t pay attention to his letter is he going to want to meet us all in a dark alley?

Gene Nemetz

Warm Saskatchewan, ElNino, it’s all just weather. I still see a cooling trend.

Gene Nemetz

royfomr (19:26:23) :
accelerate the decline
it can be hidden