From the “WUWT never reports warm events” department: After a drop last month, this is not unexpected, given the time of year. With an El Nino present the tropics and southern hemisphere warmed the most.
November 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.50 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511
2009 10 +0.286 +0.274 +0.297 +0.326
2009 11 +0.496 +0.418 +0.575 +0.493
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly rebounded from +0.29 deg. C in October to +0.50 deg. C in November. Both hemispheres, as well as the tropics, contributed to this warmth. The global anomaly for November of +0.50 deg. C is a period record for November (since 1979); the previous November high was +0.40 deg C. in 2004.
Following is the global-average sea surface temperature anomalies through November 2009 from the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite:
As usual, the trend line in the previous figure should not be construed as having any predictive power whatsoever — it is for entertainment purposes only.
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My God! Its warm – so it must be caused by us, obviously.
The internet, which Al Gore invented, was hot in November because of ClimateGate, like millions of degrees. Resultant warming for Copenhagen. So you see that’s proof it was Al Gore that leaked ClimateGate.
I found this e-mail disturbing as Trevor Davies discusses having to divvy up what is a limited pot of cash with universities. See b)
From: Trevor Davies
To: m.kelly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,j.palutikof@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: CRU Board
Date: Tue, 04 May 1999 09:08:24 +0100
Mick,
CONFIDENTIAL
I think I’m missing out on something here (refer also to Keith’s email
where he talked about “CRU being railroaded by ENV”). My recollection was
that it was agreed that I should approach Reading to see if they are up to
anything & sound out if they might be interested in talking about a joint
bid. The suggestion may have been mine originally, but I do not have
absolute recollection over that. Southampton have approached us via the
Registrar and via Peter Liss. As far as I am aware, nobody from UEA has
approached them (although I have certainly argued with Jean that we should
at least talk with them).
I now have a leaked document which spells out some of the research
councils’ thinking. I will get a copy over to CRU today. Please keep this
document within the CRU5, since it may compromise the source. NERC and
EPSRC are signed up. ESRC are not yet. Given the EPSRC stake, it will
certainly be be useful to get RAL etc involved. The funding might be
2million per year. That might imply that the Councils favour multi-site,
clusters, etc, but they stress they have no preconceptions.
Given some of their requirements, the JIF bid may be useful.
An important requirement seems to be to attract an “internationally
renowned and charismatic scientist” to be overall Director. Do you think we
should sound out Schneider? Watson? ??
Trevor
At 11:17 01/05/99 +0100, Mick Kelly wrote:
>I can’t make the re-arranged date so here is my input on some of the items
>I know are on the agenda:
>
>National Climate Centre:
>
>1. I feel even more strongly after learning more of the opposition that we
>should make a single site bid and capitalise on our proven track record as
>the only UK university which has covered and can cover all aspects of the
>climate issue from hard science to policy and philosophy.
>We should
>continue to firm up our links with NERC institutes, Hadley Centre, etc.
>But if we reach out to other universities we will:
>a) reveal what we see to be our sectoral weaknesses – a very bad strategic
>move
>b) have to split what is a limited pot of cash
>c) create a potential adminstrative monster that we know ERSC don’t like
>from CSERGE experience
>d) weaken our comparative advantage as the place where all aspects of the
>issue are covered.
>It’s my understanding that the CRU 5 have already decided in previous
>discussions that this is the way we should go? Trevor – do you want to
>argue against this? It’s notable that we haven’t been approached by other
>universities!
>
>2. Kerry reckons that likely limited lifetime of ESRC presence
>(Global Env programme office) at SPRU means it’s not worth approaching
>them – so I haven’t.
>
>3. I propose a working group be set up to move forward the centre proposal
>and ensure coordination/representation of views. 2 from CRU Bd,
>2 from CSERGE (Kerry and Neil?), Dean. Chair from CRU would be my vote –
>this should not all be loaded on Trevor’s shoulders.
>
>Studentships
>To report on situation re my proposals:
>1. Craig Wallace (ex MSc) is reserve candidate (joint with Tim Osborn).
>2. My candidate for my solo topic was switched to the ESRC/NERC
>interdisciplinary bid by the studentship committee even though I’d told
>them we definitely couldn’t put him forward for this – so that’s
>scratched. They thought my topic was not NERC-friendly – but didn’t tell
>me this till after the event. A number of phrases spring to mind but maybe
>they were just having a bad day.
>3. My feeling is best tactic for next year
>if we want more students – do we or are we at saturation point? – is to
>advertise early (now?), advertise applicants must have/be in line for a
>first or MSc with distinction, ensure we get feedback on topics from the
>committee and submit candidates early on in the process. Obvious, really.
>
>CRU 5 employment/salaries situation
>What is the current situation?
>
>AOB: Desk space for students
>Can I repeat that I think we should have policy on registration only ie
>post three year grad. students to be adopted when Nick finishes and before
>we hit the next late submitter? My feeling is a desk for 6 months then
>they move out to our overflow rooms in ENV. We should prioritise desk
>space in CRU for first year students. What does ENV do in this situation?
>
>Regards
>Mick
>
> ______________________________________________
>
>Mick Kelly Climatic Research Unit
>University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ
>United Kingdom
>Tel: 44-1603-592091 Fax: 44-1603-507784
>Email: m.kelly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/tiempo/
>______________________________________________
>
>
>
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Professor Trevor D. Davies
Dean, School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich NR4 7TJ
United Kingdom
Tel. +44 1603 592836
Fax. +44 1603 507719
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=104&filename=925823304.txt
Dark alleys and scientists go together so well. Like Einstein, he was always beating people up. Galileo, he busted a guy over the head with a telescope. And don’t even get da Vinci started!
Why does no one ever track theta-e or something else that better measures total energy?
Only slightly off topic, but I think the Tom Wigley emails and the 1940’s
‘blip’ are the strongest evidence of falsifying data. There is one email from Tom Wigley at UCAR that discusses fudging Sea Surface Temperatures to try and hide the warm period spanning the 1930’s and 1940’s. When combined with CRU data from 2005/2008 which shows these warm ‘blips’ all over the world, and the CRU code which lowers land data (ground stations) in this period while raising current temps, you have plenty of evidence of falsifying data.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/11685
Gene Nemetz (21:04:26) :
Correct me if I have this wrong:
The El Nino transports ocean heat to the land, which gets you high surface temps which blow off into space…hence the loss. And after that, it’s downhill quickly with an idle Sun not holding the equilibrium in place. And that would be the last thing you would want to see happen.
Right?
Re:
Dave (20:50:01) :
In the LA Times article linked to by D King it says this:
“‘The e-mails do nothing to undermine the very strong scientific consensus . . . that tells us the earth is warming, that warming is largely a result of human activity,’ Jane Lubchenco, who heads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told a House committee. She said that the e-mails don’t cover data from NOAA and NASA, whose independent climate records show dramatic warming.”
However, that is a direct contradiciton to this said by CRU in response to their raw data being destroyed:
“Refuting CEI’s claims of data-destruction, Jones said, ‘We haven’t destroyed anything. The data is still there — you can still get these stations from the [NOAA] National Climatic Data Center.’”
http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/10/14/14greenwire-scientists-return-fire-at-climate-skeptics-in-31175.html
More detains on that here in a story published yesterday –
CRU data loss account in dispute
http://www.examiner.com/x-28973-Essex-County-Conservative-Examiner~y2009m12d1-CRU-data-loss-account-in-dispute
I think I feel a headache coming on.
Looking at SST anomalies in the Pacific it doesn’t seem to be getting warmer currently.
Andy
For everone who wants to learn about El Nino, this is the link you need.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
Click the PDF file. It is updated every monday. The current equatorial SST anomaly is around 1.5 degrees celcius, all natural.
OT but both Joe Bastardi and Piers Corbyn predict awfull cold weather for Copenhagen summit.
El Nino does tend to spike global average temperatures…though an El Nino with a cold PDO has the opposite affect in the mid latitudes in the winter months (you can see this by doing composites on NCAR’s reanalysis composite page)…which is why the smart money is on a cold and snowy winter in the southern and eastern US, much of Central Europe and the far east.
David Walton (21:54:06) :
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Tom Karl called up in front of the Senate.
Between him & Jones proprietary process, was there any outside opinion or effort possible?
Michael (21:25:42) :
Very troubling, and what does this mean?
… NERC and EPSRC are signed up. ESRC are not yet.
Given the EPSRC stake, it will certainly be be useful
to get RAL etc involved. …
This has got me seeing conspiracies everywhere.
I need to recalibrate.
“People write ridiculous e-mails when they’re in the middle of a fight,” Boxer said. “To me, what’s important is, e-mails aside, is there global warming? Is it being affected by human activity? And there’s nothing out there that says otherwise.”
I’d be curious as to Boxer’s stock portfolio changes in the last 2 weeks.
Richard Black [BBC “Environment correspondent”] has done it again…….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8389706.stm
Conclusion from RB
“The broad outline, though, deviates little from the IPCC’s conclusions -unequivocal evidence of warming, more than 90% likelihood that humanity’s emissions of greenhouse gases were principally to blame, projections of temperature and sea level rise, declining crop yields, mountain glacier melt, and considerable damage to ecosystems and the human economy.”
Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
Anthony, can you put a straight trend line on that? Looks to my untrained, naked eye that we’ve warmed about 0.3C in 30 years. Or 0.1C per decade.
To me, this slow, non-catastrophic increase in temperature should be expected. It seems pretty consistent with the (pre-existing) trend of the world emerging from the Little Ice Age. Steady as she goes, eh?
At this pace we’ll be at +1C by 2070. Then I expect nature will pull temperatures back down (as she did after the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warming and all the others before them).
In New Hampshire November was a blessing, after a cold October with two snowfalls scared my socks off. Concord, N.H. was +4.1 for November. after being -2.4 for October and -1.8 for September.
The warm November allowed me to get some important outside chores done.
I know some folk pray for cold weather, because cold and snow irritates the heck out Alarmists. However have some mercy on us old fools who farm. If you must pray, pray for snow on Copenhagen.
I think a sound-bite of flakes falling, as delegates attempting to talk about Cap and Trade, would influence the general public more than an upward blip on a graph.
pat (20:40:43) :
Wow. So, what, are they all unionized there? Can’t fire the incompetents, and the decent scientists just move on?
“Perhaps someone can tell me how ENSO causes an increase in global temperature.”
I’ve been wondering the same thing.
Does El Nino suck more heat out of the sun?
Does El Nino trap more heat from the sun?
Does El Nino achieve nucular fusion at its core?
How can a weather pattern warm the earth?
I understand how a weather pattern can move heat around on the earth, and this may result in higer averaged surface temperatures. But given that there is no additional heat coming in and no additional being trapped vs non El Nino periods, that implies that average surface temp is not a measure of ‘global warming’, except perhaps over some period of (unknown?) length …
NCEP CFS forecast shows cold PDO remaining despite warm El Nino. (The cold PDO shows up as a backwards letter “c” in the Pacific water temperature anomalies.)
Back during the last cold PDO the El Ninos were weaker and didn’t last as long.
I think the NCEP CFS model is based upon more recent data, which includes data from a warm PDO. Therefore it may predict the El Nino will be warmer and last longer than it does.
The NCEP CFS model predicts the El Nino will still be up around 1.0 next June. I will bet you a nickel it will be below .5 (and therefore officially “neutral,”) by next May.
As expected. It’ll help the coasts, but the mid continents will be cold and snowy in the N.H. winter.
So we have a new record high for november anomaly? Even higher than 1998 or any other year before that in the sattelite history?
OK, there’s an el nino, but there’ve been a lot of el ninos before that and the one we’re having rightnow is pretty weak. Why is this leading to such a record?
Looks like December in the US is going to be chilly. Big blast of cold air settling in to the middle of the country. California is going to get blasted by a major storm next week (look for the potential of several feet of snow in the Sierras next week).
Santer’s letter is nothing more than special pleading — he avoids the issues exposed in the leaked e-mails.
The only reliable global temperature record starts in 1979, i.e. UAH LT or RSS LT.