From the “WUWT never reports warm events” department: After a drop last month, this is not unexpected, given the time of year. With an El Nino present the tropics and southern hemisphere warmed the most.
November 2009 UAH Global Temperature Update +0.50 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
2009 1 +0.304 +0.443 +0.165 -0.036
2009 2 +0.347 +0.678 +0.016 +0.051
2009 3 +0.206 +0.310 +0.103 -0.149
2009 4 +0.090 +0.124 +0.056 -0.014
2009 5 +0.045 +0.046 +0.044 -0.166
2009 6 +0.003 +0.031 -0.025 -0.003
2009 7 +0.411 +0.212 +0.610 +0.427
2009 8 +0.229 +0.282 +0.177 +0.456
2009 9 +0.422 +0.549 +0.294 +0.511
2009 10 +0.286 +0.274 +0.297 +0.326
2009 11 +0.496 +0.418 +0.575 +0.493
The global-average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly rebounded from +0.29 deg. C in October to +0.50 deg. C in November. Both hemispheres, as well as the tropics, contributed to this warmth. The global anomaly for November of +0.50 deg. C is a period record for November (since 1979); the previous November high was +0.40 deg C. in 2004.
Following is the global-average sea surface temperature anomalies through November 2009 from the AMSR-E instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite:
As usual, the trend line in the previous figure should not be construed as having any predictive power whatsoever — it is for entertainment purposes only.
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Didn’t these people throw out some large number of the ocean robot temperature takers? It seems to me that these temperature trends seem to be linked more with them dropping stations that are trending cooler and relying on more and more stations trending higher?
Any smarter than me people have a position or experience on this?
The rise in TLT anomalies reflects the jump in NINO3.4 SST anomalies during November. I posted the preliminary global and NINO3.4 SST anomalies a couple of days ago.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/11/preliminary-november-2009-sst-anomalies.html
NOAA will post the official monthly data for November on December 6th, but the monthly values are in line with the weekly data (also in that post) and the weekly data is official.
Regards
Is the Current Anomally better, or worse than we expected, compared to the Medieval Anomally?
This is the reason why i am ashame to be a Quebecois sometime. Jean-charest is under fire right now. The liberal party has been found to be involved in corruption relating to contrac given to construction company. They have also been pushing lots and lots of law lately like lowering alchool limit from 0.08 to 0.05, forcing poeple to wear helmet will riding bicicle, raising taxes, ……. there is lots and lots more but the most important thing is that they are pushing lots of new environnemental law. The poeple are getting really mad seeing everything that is going on right now and especially since we were threated like ginuea pig lately whit the A H1N1. The governement has been pushing the vaccine on us and threatening people to force vaccination on them and now putting pregnate women in isolation if they refuse the vaccine. 50% at least of the pregnate women refused to get vaccinated and between 30% to 40% of the population was vaccinated even tho they were saying we needed a minimum of 80%.
‘Is the Current Anomally better, or worse than we expected, compared to the Medieval Anomally?’
Uah only goes back 30 years so we don’t really know 😀
November was really nice in North Texas. Mostly sunny and temps 5 degrees above normal.
But, December is starting out 5 degrees below normal.
Of course, Whistler shattered its all time record for snow in November.
The temps should have climbed, the el nino has strengthened.
Holy sh*t, we’re all going to die. (Well, actually, we all are, unfortunately (sorry to break the news)). But this is, I believe, El Nino.
Hehe… so this ‘Temperature Anomaly’ number has been shown to be the climate equivelent of a FICO score: an intesting number because of the secrecy of it’s creation but utterly useless in it’s predictive power.
Confusion is normal for me so I feel no shame by asking this question.
If surface temperatures increase and let’s totally ignore the issues of veracity or relevance of what the numbers actually represent, does that mean that more thermal energy is transported into space at a time when the thermal influx is somewhat waning.
So we’re losing Joules, mayhaps, but still warming!
This CO2 stuff is truly amazing!
Anybody know the margin of errors on those measurements?
I can’t find a contact email, so I’ll make this comment here.
I see that you put RealClimate on your blogroll (good) and RealClimate does not have you and Climate Audit (bad). Someone should point this out to the blogosphere, perhaps in a post with traffic statistics. Blogosphere geeks would find this significant info about openness to discussion.
And what strength is this El Nino?
Weak, Moderate, Strong ??
Stephane (18:49:50) :
Je vous comprende. Comme habitant, vous n’avez pas de chois, mais beaucoup de joix. Malheureusement, votre gouvernement est laxe, il s’en fut du peuple. Pourquoi? Parceque le peuple le lesse. Je m’en fut de vos pleintes!! Vous ne faissez de rien!
We had one of the warmest Novembers ever here in Saskatchewan, Canada. That makes record breaking cold August and July. Record breaking warm September. Record breaking cold October … and now an El Nino November from heaven.
Up, down, up, down … Yes, if recent history is any predictor then Dec. is likely to be down. After a warm Nov. in the midwest we are also getting cool temps to start the new month.
Predicting snow for Houston on TWC. That should take some of the luster off the warm November.
The last thing you want when the earth is cooling is for high surface temperatures to happen. That’ll cause the planet to lose more heat and accelerate the decline! Time to start praying for Mr Sol to spark up.
I believe Senator James Inhofe should call for an FCC investigation of the MSM networks for ignoring their fiduciary responsibility and purposely failing to report the greatest scientific fraud of our time. Perhaps a few networks should lose their FCC license over the blatant lies of omission perpetrated by the networks.
The Northern Hemisphere came in about where I expected … higher anomaly than October but less than September. It was the Southern Hemisphere that was the “shocker” for me.
Anthony,
In your opinion, how trustworthy is this dataset?
Study Finds Ozone Hole Repair Contributes To Global Warming, Sea Ice Melt
http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2009-12/study-finds-ozone-hole-repair-contributes-global-warming-sea-level-rise
Bob Tisdale — thanks for the sea surface temps. I note you say:
“If one considers only the linear relationship between NINO3.4 SST anomalies and Global Temperaures, if NINO3.4 SST anomalies were to rise x deg C, then global temperatures should respond approximately three to six months later by rising x deg C multiplied by a factor of approximately 0.09.”
Some of us non-experts are wondering how big el nino is looking to be, and if that is likely to push a new air temp record during 2010 (during a continuing solar min? and as predicted by Hansen).
I would say these numbers are unexpectedly high. They are obviously El Nino influenced and the tropics change shows this to be the case, but it shouldn’t have had made this much change for November.
There is variability and this could be one of those. But we will have to watch and see if the El Nino moves temperatures even higher in the months ahead because history says there is more to come yet.
The El Nino peak is forecast for early January and temperatures should peak about 3 months after this.
So, is this trend mainly driven by the SST’s? Are the warmer SST’s driven by the lack of Hurricanes? What are the land trends?
I tend to think the good ole Ocean is serving it’s governor function.