From WUWT Tips and Notes comments by Robert E. Phelan:
Ric Werme has been tracking the Science Museum “Prove It!” poll since October 29th here:
http://wermenh.com/proveit.html
Starting November 2 the “count-me-in” votes have substantially outnumbered the “count-me-out” votes, although the outs have remained ahead in the over-all tally. Since November 24th the daily count has begun to favor the “outs” again. It looks like Climategate is starting to have an effect.
For those who may not yet know the story behind the poll and the ups and downs, WUWT has a nice thread here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/23/and-then-what-happens/
The poll can be found here:
http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/proveit.aspx
If anyone has not yet voted in that poll, this would be a good time to send a message. Do not be intimidated by the “we will forward your comment to the government” message. It appears for both the “in” and “out” voters; it may have been intended to be intimidating, but now is the time for everyine to send a message: “We will NOT be intimidated!”
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All sorts of weird stuff going on.
After our surge, a “count me in” surge started at the unlikely time 0500 UTC.
Then things came to a sudden halt at the unlikely time of 1030 UTC.
Raw data:
Nov 30 04:00 UTC: 5475 8418
Nov 30 04:30 UTC: 5477 8426
Nov 30 05:00 UTC: 5568 8431
Nov 30 05:30 UTC: 5704 8442
Nov 30 06:00 UTC: 5800 8454
Nov 30 06:30 UTC: 5891 8464
Nov 30 07:00 UTC: 5972 8478
Nov 30 07:30 UTC: 6039 8490
Nov 30 08:00 UTC: 6106 8496
Nov 30 08:30 UTC: 6166 8511
Nov 30 09:00 UTC: 6214 8517
Nov 30 09:30 UTC: 6279 8527
Nov 30 10:00 UTC: 6339 8539
Nov 30 10:30 UTC: 6392 8550
Nov 30 11:00 UTC: 6396 8551
Nov 30 11:30 UTC: 6396 8551
Nov 30 12:00 UTC: 6396 8551
Nov 30 12:30 UTC: 6396 8551
If anyone has a believable (and preferably verifiable!) explanation I’ll add it to the web pages tonight.
There’s still quite a bit of activity there. Oh – a reference from http://junkscience.com/ – I better go check.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/29/shocker-crus-jones-giss-is-inferior/#comments
The school children have rallied and the yea numbers are up too.
If there aren’t enough “in” votes, I’m sure they’ll borrow Mike’s trick to hide the decline:
“We have homogenised the votes by taking a sample from the “out” votes and adding them to the “in” votes. We believe this more accurately reflects the true feeling of the voters since many of the “out” votes have been influenced by the misinformation promulgated by “Big Skeptic”. “
Telegraph On-line has James Delinpole commenting:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100018299/climategate-science-museums-green-propaganda-backfires/
Climategate: Science Museum’s green propaganda backfires
The bit I love:
and, in its section on economics, it offers this bravura piece of sub-Marxist, ultra-Green theorising:
Conventional economics assumes that our prosperity depends upon economic growth. Recently, some experts have begun to question this. They argue growth, which relies on a society producing and buying ever more stuff, cannot be sustained forever. Crucial resources such as fossil fuels and metals will eventually run out.
Instead, these experts propose a sustainable economy which doesn’t measure success by growth. Although people would consume less, they could still flourish. Wealth could be more fairly shared between people. And importantly, our prosperity would not come at the expense of the environment.
So, just how on the ball are WUWT readers? I still monitor hits to my web pages, usually a couple hundred a day for the two sites we have. One of my pages is on the Pamela Smart murder case, and it’s interesting to see surges in accesses to that whenever the case makes the news or a documentary. For that, I wrote a Unix incantation to list references by the hour (data is in MST, UTC-0700), yesterday’s provit references are interesting:
tux:bin> grep ‘^[012].* proveit ‘ ~/m/2656 | cut -c 1-2 | uniq -c
2 00 [The first column is the number of reads, the second is the hour]
2 01
2 02
3 03
3 04
2 05
2 06
2 07
6 08
2 09
2 10
103 11
229 12
159 13
113 14
79 15
72 16
61 17
51 18
59 19
46 20
48 21
39 22
44 23
IIRC, this post went up at around 1141 MST, but I’m not going to bother to break things down by 20 minute intervals. Wait a minute – I can do 10 minute interval with a one character change:
tux:bin> grep ‘^[012].* proveit ‘ ~/m/2656 | cut -c 1-4 | uniq -c
1 11:0
1 11:1
1 11:3
49 11:4
51 11:5
45 12:0
39 12:1
40 12:2
44 12:3
36 12:4
25 12:5
30 13:0
30 13:1
31 13:2
26 13:3
21 13:4
21 13:5
19 14:0
16 14:1
22 14:2
18 14:3
15 14:4
23 14:5
12 15:0
11 15:1
14 15:2
11 15:3
15 15:4
16 15:5
12 16:0
9 16:1
14 16:2
15 16:3
9 16:4
13 16:5
So now we know how many devoted readers there are who live to read WUWT’s next post. Greetings, brothers. 🙂
In all, there were 1146 hits yesterday, I think the highest the Pame Smart page has seen is about 800. Yesterday that page had 49, and my Blizzard of ’78 had 6. There are hits on that almost every day of the year, something I find amazing every July.
MB (02:27:49) :
Done.
Comment to the Science Museum Staff:
Global warming has been zero over the last 10 years or so, nobody denies this, despite the fact that CO2 levels have increased over that period.
None of the climate models had predicted this,
Well done for taking the trouble to write all that. I just sent them the link to the country by country temperature graphs and told them to get their thinking caps on.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/idl_cruts3_2005_vs_2008b.pdf
Peter Plail (05:41:35) :
I tried to register so I could post a link to http://wermenh.com/proveit.html but haven’t gotten the confimatory Email. I should be at work now, so if someone else can do it, feel free.
Mention it has posting history back to 29 Oct.
Hi Ric, just to say that I read your page about Pamela about a month ago, after having a look at your analysis of the Science Museum’s Poll. Have to say that Pamela’s case must be one of the worst miscarriages of justice I have ever come across, and there have been quite a few in England and one very big one (Megrahi) here in Scotland in the last 10-15 years. Keep up the good work – on the Smart case and the equally dodgy Science Museum poll.
p.s. I’d love to see those pictures of your California to Montana bike ride in ’74 – get scanning!
The out vote has been stuck on 8551 for >2hrs. Has voting been suspended?
Yeah, I’d love to know how that was done. Most of Europe was still asleep and the Americas were just going to bed. The entries came in both ones and small clumps of three or four, with a gap in between. I find it odd that both “our” surge and their surge ended at the same time, which is about when the museum opened.
I wonder if Lihard’s continuous monitoring is still up and running? Lihard?
Hey, it’s counting again:
Nov 30 15:00 UTC: 6396 8551
Nov 30 15:30 UTC: 6396 8551
Nov 30 16:00 UTC: 6474 8574
Andrew P (06:29:08) :
> p.s. I’d love to see those pictures of your California to Montana bike ride in ‘74 – get scanning!
I bought a nice scanner after HP forcibly retired me but never had the time to do even a very small selection. With a daughter in college, I’m not expecting enough time soon, at least not unless the climate situation improves to the point where WUWT can shut down. Probability of that, rounded to three places, is 0.000. 🙂
Heh, sounds like our data bloodhounds are on the verification trail. Nice work.
“Conventional economics assumes that our prosperity depends upon economic growth. Recently, some experts have begun to question this. They argue growth, which relies on a society producing and buying ever more stuff, cannot be sustained forever. Crucial resources such as fossil fuels and metals will eventually run out.”
Oh I just love it. These morons really have no idea of growth at all. They commit the fallacy of projecting the present into the future. A hundred and twenty years ago, people would have wondered what we would do with all the horse shit that would inevitably pile up as city populations soared.
Ask this simple question – how much wealthier is the average westerner today than 120 years ago. I don’t know the answer, but let’s say twenty times for arguments sake. Does this mean we consume 20 times more raw materials? Twenty times as many meals, twenty times as many pairs of trousers, twenty times as many tables and chairs? The reality is, we simply consume different and better things. Things that could never have been imagined 120 years ago. Things like ipods, computers, hi-fi systems, toasters.
But the amazing thing is, there is something else we consume even more of. Something never imagined by our great great grandparents. This other thing we consume costs the planet nothing in raw materials. I am referring to leisure, and the whole marvellous industry that has grown up to service it. Thus we now consume movies, meals out, concerts, holidays, computer games, good wine. And I am willing to predict that if we are allowed to continue to grow our economies, our consumption will be continually skewed towards leisure. If we become wealthy enough, our consumption will include more free time. No, that is not an oxymoron, but a well accepted economic good – we choose to consume less purchased goods in order to consume more free time.
Thus, far from being a drain on mother nature, our (hopefully) wealthier descendants will merely be enjoying shorter working hours and more holidays. And who could be against that?
Ric Werme (08:17:28) :
your graph is broken
http://wermenh.com/proveit.html
Vincent: It is a bit off topic but I disagree with your optimism.
“…wealthier descendants will merely be enjoying shorter working hours and more holiday…”
As far as I know, wealth is becoming more and more concentrated into few and fewer families, the middle classes are under constant attack with ever increasing tax rates, more numerous taxes, increased job insecurity, inflationary destruction of their savings, erosion of democratic process, dismantling of the education system, water fluoridation and toxic cocktail additives to vaccines. Not to mention “outsourcing”, which whilst it does create a “middle class” in the “third world”, it creates a lower standard of “middle class” … it is a race to the bottom and only the richest families win.
Copenhagen and AGW are the first steps towards imposing a truly global taxation and monitoring scheme (carbon credits).
On top of all that, our populations have become a bunch of unarmed wimpy saps who won’t say boo to a goose (perhaps it’s the fluoride?) and who refuse to read anything that is not rubber stamped by billionaire media moguls. “Radical” in britain today means voting Liberal. Oh, wow, let’s have some yellow puppets because we don’t like the red or blue ones. Asking me to vote is like asking me to choose which colour hammer I want you to hit me over the head with.
And now the count me in is starting to catch up again.. I wonder why ;\
MB,
The point I was trying to make was a refutation of the “Growth alarmists” who naively project forward and imagine that ever greater quatitities of “stuff” will be consumed.
Your points are more political, although I do agree 100% with what you say. I don’t want to belabour the point because it’s a bit OT.
The count me in is spiking. This could be somebody with administrator privileges creating e-mail addresses on his system and erasing them once the return e-mail is received. Or could it be they have removed the protection and so it is being stuffed the way it was in the beginning?
Don’t forget that there are hundreds of students being paraded through the exhibit each day and told to vote as part of their field trip.
It is 8:30 in the evening now. Students should be home.
Charles:
The stuffing began in the middle of the night in Europe, long after the Museum was closed, and just as the Americans were getting ready for bed. I can’t imagine an internet site that can mobilize that many individuals. If it’s out there, I’d love to read it. I’m leaning toward either a script or a team generating throw-away e-mail addresses.
That morning quiet period is also very interesting. Nothing registered on either side for nearly two hours.
From the Science Museum:
“The temperature difference between today and the last ice age is only about 3–4 oC”
Frankly this gets me more worried about Global COOLING than Global Warming. If we believe the fearmongering that global warming has already raised the temperatures, it sounds like global warming is saving us from being in an Ice Age. The AGW crowd is really going to have to get their stories straight or else all it does it look like random speculation. Not that I have a problem with random speculation, just when it goes political with billions/trillions of dollars at stake, you’d better have your evidence. How am I supposed to worry about global warming when we are just a few degrees away from an ice age?
No, things are the same. I just tried to vote again and: Sorry, this email address has already been counted.
So, obviously the huge increase in the IN vote is genuine or it is being stuffed from the inside or out. Perhaps the votes are being value-added.
Come on, then, stop sitting on your hands fretting and get the word out.
Are David and Ed Milliband Marxists? Their father was and the climate policy stinks of it:
“Born in London, Miliband is the son of Jewish immigrants Marion Kozak and the late Marxist intellectual Ralph Miliband,…”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_Miliband
It is invalid for The Science Museum to host this poll, it is inappropriate, unprofessional and unethical. Perhaps the mindset, flawed scientific knowledge and lack of commitment to empirical truth of the people running The Science Museum and of the AGW supporters is demonstrated most clearly by their complete disregard for the whole body of statistical research about how to conduct good, sound, unbiased polls.
If they want to do a serious poll then they need to do at least three things:
i) Employ one of the major independent polling organizations to do so and include in the consultation which constructs the questions representatives from the opposite viewpoint;
ii) Leading up to and during the poll they should not conduct their propaganda campaign;
iii) The People polled need to be selected randomly with the correct sample sizes from each section of our society – which the professional polling organization would arrange and certify using qualified, professional, impartial, statisticians.
You can bet your hockey stick on the final result being a fixed win for the global minority. :-))