From Tips and Notes to WUWT this comment
Daphne (20:11:58)
I found this website a few months ago, while creating some graphics for a friend at NOAA. While searching for references of what a “MMTS sensor” looks like, I found out here about the Marysville station, and after exploring a bit in morbid fascination, put the site in my bookmarks.
This week , WUWT has become my favorite site in the whole world.
I am so glad I knew exactly where to turn when this thing broke.
Thank you for all your work here; and thanks to all those leaving comments which educate me by the hour. This has been the most intellectually thrilling week ever!
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Thanks! This made my week, maybe my month. My moderation team of Charles, DB, and Evan, who works tirelessly in the background, appreciates this more than you can imagine.
You see, it has been an extraordinarily stressful and exhausting week here at WUWT, trying to keep up with it all. Traffic records have been smashed one day, only to be smashed again the next. Comments are coming at the rate of a couple per second at times. Emails, tips, requests arriving faster than we can deal with them sometimes. It’s been crazy. Add to my duties with Climate Audit and trying to keep it running (the server went into terminal overload) and working on migrating CA to a new location, I haven’t had much time to reflect.
Thank you for the kind words.
– Anthony and the WUWT moderation team.
evanmjones (21:05:22) : Anthony is the Duke of MMTS and he is A-Number One!
That’s the Rev. Anthony Watts, Evan?
[REPLY – Nobody beats the Rev! ~ Evan]
Daphne speaks for a lot of us. Your mix of topics and coverage of the climate issue is awesome. Thanks WUWT team.
The “Greenhouse Effect” Revisited, again;
Much has been made for the last few decades of the “Greenhouse Effect” and the “Enhanced Greenhouse Effect”. So, let’s review:
Let’s start from basic principles; let’s follow “A Day in the Life of a Global Warming (NOT) Photon”.
1. A Photon of Visible Light (a.k.a. Sunlight) arrives on the surface of the Earth. Nothing spectacular here, happens all the time.
2. This Photon is either reflected or absorbed by the surface of the Earth. The visible reflected portion is not of much interest to the Man-made Global Warming Hypothesis, so we will ignore it for now.
3. The absorbed Photon raises the temperature of the Earth by a small amount, no dispute here.
4. The warmer Surface of the Earth then releases some Infrared radiation, no dispute here.
5. This infrared Radiation MAY be absorbed (chances are about 450/1,000,000) by a molecule of a “greenhouse gas” in the atmosphere.
6. This molecule of “greenhouse gas” will be warmed by a small amount, no dispute here.
7. This warmed molecule of “greenhouse gas” will emit something less than 50% of this energy back towards the surface of the Earth as infrared radiation, no dispute here.
8. Some of this infrared radiation emitted back towards the surface of the Earth will be absorbed by the surface and thereby warm it, (ignoring for a moment that some is reflected), no dispute here.
9. The surface of the Earth having been warmed by the radiation reflected by the “greenhouse gas” will thereby re-emit this energy back towards space, no dispute here.
10. This infrared radiation emitted back towards the cold vacuum of space MAY again be absorbed {chances are now (450/1,000,000)*(450/1,000,00)} by a “greenhouse gas”.
11. This cycle continues ad-infinitium…
12. Simply calculate the following equation to find the
chances that a Photon is forever “trapped” by the alleged “greenhouse effect”; chances of being “trapped forever” = 450^N/1,000,000^N, where “N goes to infinity” and represents the number of times a Photon is absorbed by the surface of the
Earth and ALSO absorbed by a molecule of a “greenhouse gas”.
13. The chances of being absorbed by a “greenhouse gas” TEN times is:
450^10/1,000,000^10 = ~ 3.4×10^-34 = 0.000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,34 !! (I have to admit I counted the zero’s several times, but I may be mistaken by a few)
14. So, as N approaches infinity the chances of a Photon being “trapped” and forever after causing a “permanent warming” of the Earth quickly approaches NOTHING, or as we in the engineering field used to call it “ZERO POINT S–T OVER INFINITY”.
15. Oh, by the way this simple calculation ignores the fact that something less than 50% of the energy absorbed by the “greenhouse gas” is emitted back towards the surface of the Earth.
16. A more accurate equation is: 0.50^N*450^N/1,000,000^N, which for N=10, is even WORSE at ~3.3×10^-37, hurry up and add three more zero’s.
17. The value of 450 (“greenhouse gas equivalent” in ppmv) is immaterial, it could be 100ppmv or 5000ppmv, the outcome is the essentially the same. The chances of TEN “greenhouse gas” absorptions at “100ppmv” = 1×10^-40, chances at “5000 ppmv” is = ~ 9.8×10^-24. Either way, that’s a WHOLE LOT OF ZERO’S
18. In Fact, even if the concentration of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere is 100% (BTW, we’d all be dead) the chances that a photon is ”trapped” and forever after causes a “permanent warming” of the EARTH is: 0.50^N*1,000,000^N/1,000,000^N, for N=10, this evaluates out to 9.8×10^-4. Not as many zeros, but as N goes to infinity this also becomes essentially NOTHING.
So in summary, we can suggest a few salient points:
As predicted by the laws of Thermodynamics, no heat is ever “trapped” in the atmosphere of the Earth.
If the “greenhouse effect” does indeed exist, we should expect Man-made Greenhouses to slowly heat up and eventually reach a “Tipping Point” and burst into flames. Little evidence of these empirical events exists.
The fact that some of the Thermal Insulating Gases surrounding the surface of the Earth are heated only by conduction and convection (Oxygen and Nitrogen), and other gases are heated by conduction, convection and absorption of infrared radiation is INCONSEQUENTIAL! All of these gases participate in a huge heat transfer problem which still follows all of the laws of Thermodynamics.
Note that all of these absorptions and reemissions happen within time frames of microseconds, or less. So the thought that heat has been trapped and will show up in a decade, or two decades, or even one hundred years is RIDICULOUS !!
Indeed, a stellar week for WUWT and the entire staff! Thank you all very much!
Ace’s in a Climategate world of jokers!
And Daphne if your friend at NOAA needs any other information with regard to MMTS sensor’s please be sure and pass along the surfacestations.org project! They might find some useful information there.
Don’t forget the archives. A veritable treasure trove of climate science and data from many noted scientists. Thank you all at WUWT for providing this window of sanity in a very disturbed world.
I too must confess to having started my trek here. I was looking for some evidence that the warming had a basis in real data and, chasing the question of who recorded thermometer and where the data came from, found myself here. The rest, as they say, is history.
First I learned that I was not the only person with a bit of clue who was skeptical. Then I learned one heck of a lot about thermometers and temperature series and all the players involved.
It was a question I asked here that caused a “Warmer” to reprimand me that GISS had published the code along with methods… that led me to having the GIStemp code in hand.
All that is on my site (in fact, even the idea of having a site started from a desire to avoid retyping the same points..), all the running of GIStemp, and all the understanding of how “cooked” the GHCN / NCDC data set are; every last scrap of it is due to this site.
None of it would exist but for Anthony and the work of the moderators.
I’m sure I’m not the only one “inspired” here. Your leverage reaches far and wide…
I found out about this web site from reading a Roy Spencer article about 1 1/2 years ago. I am so happy WUWT exists!!
I also haven’t got as lot of sleep this past week. I’ve been at WUWT for long hours reading. The most important reading was HARRY_READ_ME ClimateGate codified. Thank you for posting that one Anthony! (I still wonder what was going through Steve McIntyre’s mind as he read all the code for the first time)
Thank you Anthony and the moderators!! All of you must be sleep deprived. But you all have accomplished a lot. I imagine even the AGW crowd spent a good amount of time at WUWT this week.
Again, I am so happy this web site exists!
[snip – not yet – let’s wait and see, but thanks anyway – A]
Like Rick Werme, I too have a WUWT addiction. I wish I had Daphne’s grace and had penned a note of thanks before now.
It’s one of my favorite sites as well, right behind instapundit.com!
Now, all you guys and gals, get out there and complete those surfacestations.org surveys!!!!!!!!
Best,
Mike Fox
Daphne puts me to shame. I’ve been enjoying your website for months now and never left a comment of appreciation. You’ve helped me realize that my own misgivings were not based on “Moon Hoax” type information. And today I just used it in class to help my college students appreciate the importance of not relying on third-party information, but of going straight to the source whenever possible.
Thank you, Anthony. I don’t know how you and your staff have done it. The work that goes into this must be phenomenal.
Anthony, thank you so much for all your hard work. You and your WUWT team have done an amazing job at covering this story. I took CBC news team to task today for their lame, practically non-existent and biased media coverage on Climategate. Later, I saw this video on your site: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/27/climategate-protester-pawns-cbc-on-live-tv/
Incredible timing, indeed.
Anthony and Moderators.
Thank You
Sometimes we the interested public forget that it takes a team to make this kind of progress against ignorance and worse. Thank you again.
Hyon and Terry
Hitting the tip jar – something I’ve been meaning to do all week, both here and at CA. Heartfelt thanks to you all, your efforts are truly appreciated. The children can have coal in their Christmas stockings: they are old enough now to understand that mummy needs her sanity more than they need trinkets. I don’t comment much but I am around often in spirit. It gives me hope.
Dittos.
I have written no less than 30 letters and emails and contacted at least 500 people this week. In every correspondence I cited this site. Thanks for all your help!
Will drop in a tip as soon as I can!
Anthony, I too would like to express my gratitude for all your time and the work you put up on this site. My education is only 1 week old on this site and it is now a permanent source for information. Thank you from the bottom of my heart and wishing you all the best.
Ray (20:52:04) :
Since WUWT and CA are regularly mentioned by the pro-peer-reviewers, you must have become a real Bristlecone Pine needle on their sides… keep up the good work!
The bristlecone pine isn’t afflicting their sides, it’s a bit lower.
If things play out the way they should, what we owe the Anthonys of the world (Steve M, Lubos Motl, and others too numerous to mention) cannot be overestimated.
The dedication of this post is simple:
Thank you Anthony and your staff.
Been lurking on this site for a while too. Thank you for the education, previously i believed in the global warming theory, mainly due to spoon feeding from the media. This site has opened my eyes.
Same here, since a month orso i have started to look for more information about the “global warming hype” this was the site i have most visited.
Thank you very much for changing me in a skeptical warmist 😀
BTW, could you please tell me where the “tip jar” is. I ask it a couple of times but i cant find is :O
Arnold (22:47:53) :
BTW, could you please tell me where the “tip jar” is. I ask it a couple of times but i cant find is :O
Just below the recent comments section on the right Arnold.
I’ve just added a small contribution to the tip jar in thanks for all the hard work and long ours the WUWT team has put in.
WELL DONE GUYS!
Yes, this is where it’s at on the Internet. I found this site very quickly. I first visited SolarCycle24, another good source of information and climate/solar links that led me here. Thanks, Anthony et al.
“It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.”–Winston Churchill
I’ve been recording air temps here in Christchurch n.z from 1976. I’ve seen 3 pecks in the yearly a.v.g air temps and each time i heard on the news about that time that the sun had reached it peck in its solarcycle and i said so some of my friends that a.v.g yearly temps are always going to be warmer than normal for 1 or two years just after the peck in the cycle.
I had no real learning in that science . It wasn’t till last year i came across this website just by typing in sunspots into Google.
I was amazed that you had a post up about this very same thing . People thought i was mad saying that in most cases air temp gos up with the number of sunspots but i just went with my gut feeling and your site Anthony has reassured me that my thinking is on the right path I have learnt a lot from this site . Hope you and your moderators have a restful Christmas.
Heartfelt thanks, Anthony and Moderators.We’re reallty in the thick of it, Here in Australia!
In Dec. 2008 I finally had the opportunity to searched the web for an authoritative update on the “global warming” war. I was painfully aware of the lack of scrutiny regarding the UN IPCC activities and it’s domination of world government policies around CO2 “forcing” of the consequential pending thermal destruction of the earth, but desperately needed to discover a source for the latest up-to-date news and investigation that was lacking from the Media and at the UN. This I found at WUWT, CA, TAV, ICECAP and the numerous others in addition to Sen. Inhofe’s EPW Blog and now ClimateDepot.
All in all, IMO, WUWT remains the world’s command center for this, perhaps the greatest impacting outlawed scientific DEBATE of all time: the unorganized independent scientific challenge to the politically ordained scientific elite opinion of virtually immediate human “greenhouse” destruction of our own earthly habitat through our mere existence with only sketchy historical data (although apparently AGW contrarian) available and secret and therefore unscientific supporting data and projections while any major public debate has been avoided and/or prohibited even though expert AGW opposing opinion has been expressed since the warnings of the immediately pending Ice Age of the 1970’s.
Anthony Watts and the mods have given ear, voice, life and port to the growing legions of fact anxious, searching scientist, amateur and layman souls who now may be taking part in an AGW high-water mark period that may result in the rebirth of openly debated and respectable science.
A warning is now called for as while we can hope the overthrow of the AGW hysteria is near the scientific elite will not succumb cooperatively, or completely. As the elite hijacked the Environmental Movement they will, at least, attempt to remain a major influence there in addition to exploiting as much as they can the MSMedia and Gov’s of the world.
As a saying goes: Stay vigilant! Stay involved! Give the elitists little quarter, it is not in them to honestly question their “learned” conclusions and sacrifice they’re influence.
The EPA must be made to publicly defend it’s CO2 pollution finding. The UN IPCC must publicly defend it’s reports and projections. Hadley and CRU must publicly defend it’s lack of credibility through it’s lack of peer review through their secrecy of data and reasoning for interpretations.
Did you contribute to the EPA inquiry by Friday? Try now, anyway. It can still influence by after hours impact.
Here is a link as an example of the ongoing war that is yet far from over:
“US and China to reduce emissions, but not enough” (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/climate), Fri Nov 27, 9:47 pm ET.
Keep the pressure on Washington and the “media” – give the “Believers” something to believe in!
Almost forgot! My engineering physics college senior son’s and other family members are kept up-to-date by me through mostly WUWT daily as I, too check the site several times daily and share many of the posts/comments I find most relevant, impacting and educational.
Anthony a Pulitzer? You’ve got my vote. Together with low solar flux, the inevitable CRU and Hadley miscues, McIntyre’s hockey stick exposure, Anthony’s activity and the many other influences we may experience reality, soon. Stay active!
A Great Thanksgiving to science. WOW! What a year! What a week!
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And the donations box for WUWT can be found here.
http://www.surfacestations.org/donate.htm
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