Zorita calls for barring Phil Jones, Michael Mann, and Stefan Rahmstorf from further IPCC participation

From his web page: Why I think that Michael Mann, Phil Jones and Stefan Rahmstorf should be barred from the IPCC process

by Eduardo Zorita, Scientist at the Institute for Coastal Research, specialist in Paleoclimatology, Review Editor of Climate Research and IPCC co-author.

Short answer: because the scientific assessments in which they may take part are not credible anymore.

A longer answer: My voice is not very important. I belong to the climate-research infantry, publishing a few papers per year, reviewing a few manuscript per year and participating in a few research projects. I do not form part of important committees, nor I pursue a public awareness of my activities. My very minor task in the public arena was to participate as a contributing author in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.

By writing these lines I will just probably achieve that a few of my future studies will, again, not see the light of publication. My area of research happens to be the climate of the past millennia, where I think I am appreciated by other climate-research ‘soldiers’. And it happens that some of my mail exchange with Keith Briffa and Timothy Osborn can be found in the CRU-files made public recently on the internet.

To the question of legality or ethicalness of reading those files I will write a couple of words later.

I may confirm what has been written in other places: research in some areas of climate science has been and is full of machination, conspiracies, and collusion, as any reader can interpret from the CRU-files. They depict a realistic, I would say even harmless, picture of what the real research in the area of the climate of the past millennium has been in the last years. The scientific debate has been in many instances hijacked to advance other agendas.

These words do not mean that I think anthropogenic climate change is a hoax. On the contrary, it is a question which we have to be very well aware of. But I am also aware that in this thick atmosphere -and I am not speaking of greenhouse gases now- editors, reviewers and authors of alternative studies, analysis, interpretations,even based on the same data we have at our disposal, have been bullied and subtly blackmailed. In this atmosphere, Ph D students are often tempted to tweak their data so as to fit the ‘politically correct picture’. Some, or many issues, about climate change are still not well known. Policy makers should be aware of the attempts to hide these uncertainties under a unified picture. I had the ‘pleasure’ to experience all this in my area of research.

I thank explicitely Keith Briffa and Tim Osborn for their work in the formulation of one Chapter of the IPCC report. As it destills from these emails, they withstood the evident pressure of other IPCC authors, not experts in this area of research, to convey a distorted picture of our knowledge of the hockey-stick graph.

Is legal or ethical to read the CRU files? I am not a lawyer. It seems that if the files had been hacked this would constitute an illegal act. If they have been leaked it could be a whistle blower action protected by law. I think it is not unethical to read them. Once published, I feel myself entitled to read how some researchers tried to influence reviewers to scupper the publication of our work on the ‘hockey stick graph’ or to read how some IPCC authors tried to exclude this work from the IPCC Report on very dubious reasons. Also, these mails do not contain any personal information at all. They are an account of many dull daily activities of typical climatologists, together with a realistic account of very troubling professional behavior.

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Steve S.

The difficult and hopeless postion these people have, Jones et al, is the only way for them to salvage their careers is to expand their deceit even futher in hopes of somehow reversing the damage done by their prior offenses.
Gavin Schmidt’s conduct represents that futile attempt.

Keith Minto

” I am not a layer” ? (1st line,last para.) must mean lawyer unless he is broody.

Steve Fitzpatrick

One very brave man. I wish him luck with keeping his job and getting funding.

Brute

Jones, Mann and company have caused a tremendous amount of damage.
As this seeps out into the general population, (and it is), people will second guess anything coming from the IPCC or this topic well into the future.

Roger Carr

Keith Minto (18:53:37) : ” I am not a layer” ? (1st line,last para.) must mean lawyer unless he is broody.
I consider he has every right to be broody, too.
I am looking forward to the chickens…

Gary

Well, more specifically, their judgment, sense of ethics, and competence isn’t credible any more. Their removal is a good first step, but I doubt it will change the quality of IPCC assessments.

J.Hansford

He’s downplaying it a bit, but he is saying it…….. “…a realistic account of very troubling professional behavior.”
Journalists now need to follow wherever this mess leads…. It would be good just to get most of these partisan news outlets to even admit there is a mess with the climate science. That would be a good first start.

igloowhite

LBJ lied, John F. Kerry lied and lies still, Bill Clinton lied and lies more, Al Gore lies big time, will lie more, B. Obama lied to get in office and will lie about man made global warming soon and will often.
What do they all have in common other than they are world classless liars.
use “D” as your clue, sort of a hockey stick graph….data set.

There is a point in time when the “agenda” becomes so important that nothing else matters. For a Gavin Schmidt truth is not important, only “getting people to believe” matters. If enough people “believe” which allows a goal of the agenda to be attained, then that is a win, if not it is a loss.
That is the only thing these people care about.
So-called “post normal” science is an exhibition in subjective reality.

Climate Change

Ok, maybe something will happen…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8383713.stm

Merovign

I think it’s going to be a lot harder for “Them” to punish dissenters now, it’s too hard to cover up now.
Also, remember when the press used to preen about heroic investigators revealing the dastardly secrets of state and store? Do you think they ever really believed that, or was it always about political enemies?

Claude Harvey

I’ll give Zorita credit for appreciating the “credibility” issue. However, I thought his “I’m just a small cog in this big machine” was a pretty thin evasion of responsibility for having participated all this time without understanding the game.
I repeat:
“I’m being enormously entertained watching the “emergency exits” at the Grand Global Warming Theater. I see little rat noses tentatively poking out all over the place. Meanwhile, Michael Mann takes to the stage with his magic act once again in a desperate effort to stem the panic.”
CH

juan

Keith Minto (18:53:37) : ” I am not a layer” ? (1st line,last para.) must mean lawyer unless he is broody.
I think he is a fryer. But now out of the frying pan and into the fire.
[Fixed, thanks. ~dbs, mod.]

JimB

“James F. Evans:
For a Gavin Schmidt truth is not important, only “getting people to believe” matters.”
For a Gavin Schmidt, truth is not important, only ‘survival’ matters.
Fixed it.
JimB

nofreewind

your post made the tears flow…

Eduardo Zorita: “My voice is not very important.”
Yes it is! With enough honest scientists speaking up, this scam can’t be ignored. Here’s another one speaking out, saying there is “proof of fraud”: click

GG

Climate scientists are starting to realise that the AGW hoax will unravel soon, and when it does – there will be a reckoning, there WILL be consequences, which will involve jail sentances and/or huge fines for the most serious frauds that have been committed. The public will demand it., and MOST importantly – the politicians and media will need scapegoats to cover up their own participation in the crime of the century.
I suspect the silent majority of scientists who sat on the fence, are about to jump to one side in a very vocal way. Those that dont, are fools who will pay the price for the dishonesty of the likes of Jones, Mann et al

Kevin B.

Apologize in advance for a somewhat off-topic post: I am engaged in a “debate” with someone on a left-oriented site. I am trying to summarize what climategate is about and how it undermines the credibility of global warming true believers. Have I stated the case effectively?
The data that was “hidden” was part of the proxy data that was supposed to reconstruct climate history for the time period before there were thermometric measurements. This data was obtained from tree rings, ice cores, sediments among other sources. There was a period of overlap between the the proxy data and thermometric data. This was used to calibrate the proxy data as the thermometer data is more reliable. However, there were periods where they records diverged. The thermometer data showed temperature increased while the proxy data showed a decrease. The problems then are:
How reliable is the proxy data? Do factors besides temperature affect tree rings, for example?
Was climate variability in the past greater than published proxy data suggest? Perhaps our recent warming is not as extreme as we have been led to believe. Note that recent comparisons indicate that proxy data may understate temperature which would mean that the past was warmer than we currently understand.
Finally, the climate simulation models are not closed in the sense that they require real world historical data for tuning. Even if the simulation models are based on rigorous physics, if they are tuned to a faulty climate record they cannot be expected to produce a credible result. And it turns out that much of the data set in question was used in part for this purpose.
I get very suspicious when government experts tell me that there is a crisis and we must act right now. It happened with Iraq, with the banking system bailout and its happening with Iran and climate change.

John F. Hultquist

Eduardo, you were a cute child, but to seemingly blame the change on HvS – I don’t think that’s fair. And it costs € 826 to receive 4 volumes of Climate Research during 2010. I think I’ll ask for a stimulus grant so you can double the print run and we’ll send copies to interested students. That would be good for you and them.
Seriously, the entire IPCC process ought to be shut down. Getting rid of a few science-trained folks with questionable ethics allows the process to seem cleansed and it can then go on its merry way. Better to get rid of the IPCC and clean up the science “tricks and/or fraud” also.

Robert

After finding a few rotten apples at the top of a barrel, it is a poor farmer who convinces himself that there are no more further down.

Arthur Reader

Just posted on RealClimate:

Much of the discussion in recent days has been motivated by the idea that climate science is somehow unfairly restricting access to raw data upon which scientific conclusions are based.

Climate science hasn’t been unfairly restricting access. The authors of RealClimate demonstrably have been unfairly restricting access to raw data as their own email conversations make perfectly clear. Don’t confuse “climate science” the discipline with “RealClimate” the indiscipline.
Oh and for the record, it’s not too long since Michael Mann was protesting to Congress that the data and methodology used to produce MBH98 was his private property and no-one (including Congress) had any right to see it.
Who to believe? RealClimate or our own lying eyes?
Deleting lots of emails that were the subject of FOI requests is a criminal offense in the UK as well as the US. Plotting to unseat editors and conspiring against journals who publish work that criticises the work of RealClimate authors as well as gaming the peer review process are all gratuitous breach of scientific ethics which may well get a number of them fired.
Its no use claiming that the emails and documents were unfairly obtained – so were the Pentagon Papers and those were Top Secret.
It’s time for RealClimate to come clean. For there’s more at stake than the academic careers of a few key individuals indulging in sordid unethical behavior.

Arnold

Delivery has failed to these recipients or distribution lists:
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The recipient’s mailbox is full and can’t accept messages now. Microsoft Exchange will not try to redeliver this message for you. Please try resending this message later, or contact the recipient directly.
I have tried to sent the story about the Google/Wikipedia cencoring to Foxnews, but i think other people are trying to sent news also 😀

Arnold

The following story is about a french scientist who also reconstructed mean tempratures for europ and america. No warming since the 40’s. Read also the second comment about a scientist that was threatened with his job. The scientist are comming out of hiding!
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/11/26/skewed-science.aspx

Douglas DC

Roger Carr (18:59:13) :
Keith Minto (18:53:37) : ” I am not a layer” ? (1st line,last para.) must mean lawyer unless he is broody.
I consider he has every right to be broody, too.
I am looking forward to the chickens…
I think the Chickens aren’t going to be roosting at Zorita’s Phil Jones might consider nesting boxes and a little egg scratch for his office decor,however..

Zeke

He is just saying it is far worse than it looks. The careful reader will be rewarded with light.
“The CRU-files… depict a realistic, I would say even harmless, picture of what the real research in the area of the climate of the past millennium has been in the last years.”
“editors, reviewers and authors of alternative studies, analysis, interpretations,even based on the same data we have at our disposal, have been bullied and subtly blackmailed.”
“Some, or many issues, about climate change are still not well known. Policy makers should be aware of the attempts to hide these uncertainties under a unified picture.”
I find most disturbing the stories of Ph D candidacies and papers being politically tampered with. That is the heartbreaker for me. I strongly suspect this goes on across all of the disciplines.

Gary Plyler

Everything about all 21 of the AGCMs relies on semi-accurate sensitivies to solar and volcanic from the paleo record.
1. The elimination of MWP and LIA was necessary so that solar forcing could be minimized, thereby allowing almost all the warming in the last 75 years to be blamed on GHGs.
2. The slope of long-term (ie. 10-year running average global temperature) was maximized with the sloppy gridding code and UHI effects and hiding the declines (documented in the leaked source code) ensured that the GHG forcing coefficient in all 21 of the AGCMs is maximized. (Maximizes result at year 2100 based on GHG increases.)
3. Because the tuning of the AGCMs, using backcasting, fit the record for the most part (and by design), it was assumed that the models had almost everything in them.
4. When better numbers for black carbon, land use, ocean and atmospheric multidecadal cycles, etc. came out, it appeared that the HADCRUT needed revisions to refit the backcast.
Is this why the Hockey stick was so important? After all, the paleo reconstruction it is the first step in predicing the future with AGCM.

Spenc BC

This inquiry set up at East Anglia will be a white wash. There needs to be an independent inquiry that does include scientist but chaired by some one objective and apart from science, like a judge, or two or three judges! And this in conjunction with charges!

Jeff L

I complement Zorita for having the guts to come forward & call it the way he sees it. Hopefully it inspires others to do the same. Hopefully the politicians have the guts to listen to them (although I an not holding my breath)

Jerry

He says:
“I may confirm what has been written in other places: research in some areas of climate science has been and is full of machination, conspiracies, and collusion, as any reader can interpret from the CRU-files. They depict a realistic, I would say even harmless, picture of what the real research in the area of the climate of the past millennium has been in the last years. The scientific debate has been in many instances hijacked to advance other agendas.”
Harmless??
Machination, conspiracies, and collusion are not at all harmless.
The whole idea AGW is fraught with politics that will effectively enslave western civilization. Harmless my a$$! This was written by a man who has no knowledge of the real world.
If he had any integrity and if he detected machination, conspiracies, or collusion, he could have worked for better peer review, brought it the public’s attention, or otherwise spoken up. Or, he could have resigned, or recused himself from the IPCC AR4 report.
I think this guy is part of the problem.

Scouse Pete

Arnold: “I have tried to sent the story about the Google/Wikipedia cencoring to Foxnews, but i think other people are trying to sent news also :D”
I’m not so sure Google are censoring anything. Number of hits for “Climategate” now at 10,700,000 and probably still rising!

While I agree with the idea of barring Jones, Mann, et. l. from the IPCC, it’s not clear to me that’s sufficient to restore credibility to climate science. Barr these people and the current “second stringers” like Michael Oppenheimer from Princeton will just take their place, parroting the same stuff. This is already going on, see this article: http://www.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_13875236
The problem runs deeper than just the questionable morals of a few scientists and lots of sloppy computer code.
The review process itself stands on pretty shaky ground, both in terms of it’s credibility and in terms of its ability to produce good science even when done correctly. It seems to me that peer-review is a poor substitute for openness, where data and scientific code are shared with the world, not locked away in a government data center.
There’s also the question of why an agency like CRU would have a mission statement covering 1) Gathering of data, 2) Dissemination of data, and 3) Input into the creation of policy. When a single group controls all that there is too much room for conflict of interest to arise. An example of this is CRU’s Mick Kelly offering Shell Oil the ability to “drive the research agenda” in return for funding. All CRU would need to do for the funding is come up with policy that would benefit Shell.
Anyway, I’ve put together a video of “Who’s Who” in ClimateGate. I hope folks like it.
ClimateGate Who's WhoUploaded by magicjava. – Discover more science and tech videos.
REPLY: If you make a YouTube version it will get wide distribution -A

The blackballing habits of the warmers isn’t confined to the opinions/positions of other scientists, but to their family members and relatives. Eight years ago I had posted my opinions on an email list about AGW and mentioned some of my cousins work in Antarctica. A week later, my cousin was desperately requesting I get my emails removed from the list archives as he had come under pressure from warmists who had influence over whether he would get his doctorate, I am not sure which Team member it may have been. Out of sympathy for my cousin, I did attempt to do so, but was unable to get them removed entirely from mirrored archives.
Personally I’ve never been so outraged over a free speech issue in my life, and it was this event that convinced me that the warmists were corrupt and their position had to be fraudulent if they had to engage in such tactics.
So, Gavin, Mike, Keith, Jim, Phil, and company, congratulations. You created a skeptic out of this person with your heavy handed tactics.
I used to believe in the warmist position. I was Al Gore’s poster boy for reinventing government and energy conservation with my energy conserving exit sign retrofit kit (front page of the Washington Post in 1993). My invention has reduced carbon emissions by millions of tons by now, reducing exit sign wattages from 40w to 1/3w and eliminating the need to replace bulbs for 30 years.
Then I started investigating, learning, finding out what was really going on. When the above events transpired, I was a fence sitter, playing devils advocate on that email list in a discussion with a dyed in the wool warming religionist. So I reached the ‘tipping point’ thanks to these heavy handed tactics, which beyond outraging me, caused stress among my family members and impacted my cousins career. I can’t tell you folks how happy I am to finally see these peoples misdeeds come public.

Richard

Thats 2 now Zorita and Dr. Hans von Storch, both calling for the same thing. Will there be more? I sincerely hope so.

Paul Vaughan

He hit the mark here:
“These words do not mean that I think anthropogenic climate change is a hoax. On the contrary, it is a question which we have to be very well aware of. But I am also aware that in this thick atmosphere -and I am not speaking of greenhouse gases now- editors, reviewers and authors of alternative studies, analysis, interpretations,even based on the same data we have at our disposal, have been bullied and subtly blackmailed. In this atmosphere, Ph D students are often tempted to tweak their data so as to fit the ‘politically correct picture’. Some, or many issues, about climate change are still not well known. Policy makers should be aware of the attempts to hide these uncertainties under a unified picture. I had the ‘pleasure’ to experience all this in my area of research.”

Robert Wood of Canada

Eduardo,
These words: These words do not mean that I think anthropogenic climate change is a hoax are so contorted that they indicate an intense awareness of political, dare I say “peer review”, pressure.
I congratulate you for your post. If science, rather than politics, wins the “debate” you will be rewarded; not so the other way.
The game is still in play, so you are courageous.

Kevin B.
Unfortunately, the Climategate emails are not a smoking gun as far as data is concerned. Though it does give some tantalizing hints of how they have manipulated the datasets to arrive at a predetermined result. It does NOT actually do so. The source code for a program used to perform calculations is quite interesting however even there since there is no actual raw data to perform a transformation on ( at least none that I have seen ) it is difficult to tell exactly what will occur with it.
What is really damning about these emails is the collusion and strong arm tactics that the climate scientists seem to be engaged in. The circling of the wagons, so to speak, that these few major players engaged in.
What really needs to happen at this point is a release of RAW data, as well as the source code that they ( the climate ‘scientists’) used to transform the data. The reason this is important, or perhaps the reason this is so important, was just seen recently in New Zealand where someone actually figured out how skewed the raw vs ‘adjusted’ data was.
Again this is my take on the data as it has come to light. Now please be aware that this does not in any way shape or form invalidate the hypothesis that CO2 will cause massive warming via feedback effects… But it does PROVE that there is no consensus or if there was it MAY be founded on bad data.
We as skeptics are not saying that AGW is impossible. Rather as skeptics we have simply been pointing out three things for the most part. First the data that they are gather might be flawed ( Thanks Anthony for the Surface Station Project ) Second that there may be a myriad of reasons for warming beyond the CO2 link. Third, That even with warming we do not know that it would be bad, I mean come on CO2 is basically plant food, more CO2 and warmer temperatures the more growth of plant life can take place.
Anyway, sorry to say but Climategate is important but not necessarily for proving the data has been falsified or overtly ( except for exclusion purposes which MAY be justifiable ) purposes. Probably screws up your debate, but again we are interested in understanding the issue of Global Warming, not being right about it. To be honest I think that is what makes us skeptics rather then dogmatic zealots. Which in the end is a good thing.

New AGW/email article: click
And another: click
The word is getting out.

Leon Brozyna

Hercules may have overcome the Hydra of Lerna, however, the hydra-headed monstrosity of AGW won’t be quite as easy to fell. Just think of the number of post-modern scientists eager to feed at the public money trough. Lop off some of the monster’s many heads named Mann, Hansen, Jones, et al and others will take their place, promising to do a better job. There won’t, however, be a fundamental change in their science, just different camouflage with the same fundamental beliefs.
Scientists may start to gain credibility if they speak from a position where anthropogenic forces are but one of many elements impacting the climate.

The art of lying as a skill is one of the most difficult to master, but as a talent, it is the most onerous to shed.
A carriage across the pond has cost many a frog to the advantage of the silver-tongued scorpion.
Pity, if you must, the exhausted, emaciated dung beetle.

Michael Jankowski

I’m waiting for the comment that says the IPCC is robust to the inclusion/exclusion of Jones, Mann, Rahmstorf, et al. 😉

3x2

I can’t see that removing individuals from the process will help. To re-phrase something I posted on the Pielke Sr. thread earlier.
The problem is that the work is being assessed by the very people that have produced it. In no other area that matters would we allow this to happen.
Can you imagine a legal system where the defence lawyer is also the prosecution lawyer (and judge). The best that could be said about the current set-up is that it is advertising. I create a product with one hat on then extol it’s virtues with my other hat on. No wonder things have gone wrong.
Wegman was on the money from day one. A self re-enforcing clique.

JimB (19:22:45) :
I associate with your fix 🙂

Methow Ken

Was going to let this one lie for a bit, since likely I’ve used my ”comment quota”. But since both Arnold and then Scouse Pete commented; i.e.:
===========================
Scouse Pete (19:54:02) :
Arnold: “I have tried to sent the story about the Google/Wikipedia cencoring to Foxnews, . . . . . . .
I’m not so sure Google are censoring anything. Number of hits for “Climategate” now at 10,700,000 and probably still rising!
===========================
Yes; Google is ”back again” on climategate now, BUT:
There was something very odd for some hours today:
After getting to 8660K hits on ”climategate” at 17:15 US PST yesterday, for many attempts during a good part of today the EXACT same string only returned 2800K hits. But now same string returns 10,900K Google hits. . . . Almost like some data was temporarily ”deliberately hidden” (sorry; couldn’t resist).
Meanwhile, ”global warming” only returns 9510K Google hits.
Like I said in prior post:
When ”climategate” hits pass ”global warming” hits:
Raise your glasses, one and all. . . . .
At this rate ”climategate” will pass ”climage change” (21,000K) on Google in about one more week.
Can anyone say ”tipping point” ?? . . . .

Neil O'Rourke

Kevin B. (19:28:36) :
I get very suspicious when government experts tell me that there is a crisis and we must act right now. It happened with Iraq, with the banking system bailout and its happening with Iran and climate change.

I get suspicious when a govenment says there is a crisis ond only a tax can fix it.

Scouse Pete (19:54:02) :
[i]I’m not so sure Google are censoring anything. Number of hits for “Climategate” now at 10,700,000 and probably still rising![/i]
I don’t know if Google is censoring the pages returned like the do in China for Tienanmen Square queries. But I know for a FACT that Google has self-consciously and deliberately CENSORED the word “climategate” from their autocomplete suggestion list. It was there yesterday. It is gone today.

Bobb Dobb

In regards to the CRU-files matter I am reminded of the scene in the movie “The Hunt For Red October” when a Soviet submarine commander orders torpedoes launched with safety features disabled because he was in a rush and he was certain of the outcome. When the torpedoes come back around and are about to blow up his own sub his subordinate shouts out to him, “You arrogant bastard, you’ve killed us all.”
Well Phil Jones et al you arrogant bastards, you’ve killed (our scientific reputations) us all.

rbateman

The only reason the Climate Bunch got this far is that too many of those inside the process kept silent. The time to distance onself was before the leak, not after it. As a free scientist, he could have merely left the organization and found work elsewhere.
The smart ones got out a while back.

Robert Wood of Canada

Climate Change @19:08:34:
Ok, maybe something will happen…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8383713.stm

I will be watching this very carefully. I’ve already seen suggestions of fancy-pantsy lordy-lordies who are totally in support of AGW being suggested as heading this enquiry.
And, what are it’s terms? Is it to enquire into the LEAK, or the facts pointed to by the LEAK?
I suspect a political subtefuge which will not only exonerate the e-mailers and castigate the purported “hacker’s theft”, but also issue a resounding endorsement of the IPCC and HADCRU.

Dennis Wingo

Words from President Eisenhower on the CRU Scandal
Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers. The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present — and is gravely to be regarded.
Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.

Arnold

I like this presantation very much. Really gives a non-climate guy like me a good overview.
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/Phoenix%20Climate%20Presentation.pdf