From the “WUWT never reports on anything warm department”, JPL reports El Niño looks like it is on schedule to make a Christmas appearance as “The Boy”. The good news is that it will likely help California’s water situation this year.
From NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
El Niño is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/French Space Agency Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October has triggered a strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude. A series of similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and has sustained the present El Niño condition.
This image was created with data collected by the U.S./French satellite during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. It shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that is about 10 to 18 centimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue and purple areas) are between 8 to 15 centimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red and white colors depict areas where sea surface temperatures are more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (two to four degrees Fahrenheit).
“In the American west, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions, this late-fall charge by El Niño is a pleasant surprise, upping the odds for much-needed rain and an above-normal winter snowpack,” said JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert.
For more information on NASA’s ocean surface topography missions, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ ; or to view the latest Jason data, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/.
That red and white area along the equator looks like a nice WARM smile.:<)
Well that’s just hunky dory. California gets snow in the mountains, rain in the fertile valleys, and a warm breeze up their skirts at ocean side while Oregon and especially Wallowa County get dished up a nice bowl of frozen brass monkeys under a pile of snow at our doorsteps. Great.
Here is where i look for weastern drought patterns.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
I am told some drought is due to irrigation water being shutoff in California. That land use effect can decrease rain also thanks to reports on this site.
What with all the climate cycles that make up our weather patterns I can’t keep them all straight.
Will this increase or decrease snowfall in the Northeast?
I like a LOT of snow…I love storms that are measured in FEET. We actually set a record in my town back in the late 90’s where we got 38″ of snow in 12hrs. It was incredible. I let my dogs out when I got home, around 5:30pm, and it had just started to snow. Got up at 5am to let the dogs out…couldn’t open the sliding glass door…turned on the outside light…there’s 3′ of snow on the deck.
Hoping for more of the same for THIS winter 🙂
JimB
We had one good rain from the remnants of that typhoon but nothing of any significance since. We certainly could use a couple of storms out of the Gulf of Alaska.
Never mind you Americans, what does it mean for us in England? We had fuschias blooming early and a profusion of berries this autumn – both of which usually mean a particularly cold winter. I’m sure the Pacific El Nino affects world climate so what of us to the east of the Atlantic? Anyone know?
I remember the increased SST anomaly from two weeks ago at the NOAA Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree Daily Sea Surface Temperature Analysis site:
http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/oi-daily.php
The SST anomaly has dropped back down since then and now looks weaker than it was in late October before the short duratin blip up.
El Nino is not a big drought producer. Mainly because it produces a lot of precip in southern areas. Think California through Texas and on to Florida. It’s La Nina that produces drought and dust storms. These patterns occur in over 50% to 75% of the time under El Nino conditions. I am not sure about the UK. Foggy comes to mind.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Pamela Gray (07:45:21)
I agree,this is like a typical Cold PDO Nino. I am still not quite buying the “Super
El Ninp” of the AGW cultists.But.Warm water,cold air is a recipe for big snow.
1969,1971/72 were nasty,and cold here in NE Oregon-both Nino years as I recall
and Cold PDO.
I have also been following the numbers. We are no where near a super El Nino. Not even close. So my prediction above can be considered a milk toast variety.
My understanding is that for the far NE corner, you get blasted with dry Arctic winds cold enough to freeze tree roots.
Woops, there goes that silly Mother Nature again, influencing sea temps & climate….imagine that?
We are in for a very snowy winter… colder temperatures globally with a warmer and more evaporative surface ocean… Merry Christmas!
It’s strange that it is exactly at the equator… could the gravitational/rotational forces of the earth help in “pulling” warmer waters up?
Yay! We need some warmth too. It looks like it might be a cold winter. Recent conditions in China have caused some problems:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8358162.stm
Here are the predicted weather changes for an El Nino (the top one would be for the winter).
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/warm.gif
The newest upper ocean temperature animation is showing a Super-El Nino-like profile.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif
But the Trade Winds have shifted back to normal or above-normal recently so the Kelvin wave cited by NASA JPl above shouldn’t continue moving eastward.
Pamela. Thanks, but we don’t get foggy any more. I know it crops up on films (movies) about England, but fact is foggy days pretty much died out here coincidentally in the late 1970s early 1980s. We get the odd day here and there, but NOTHING like the peas-soupers we used to get in the 60s and 70s.
Time to put on those winter tires.
I see that Whistler will be open this weekend and current base snow thickness is 95cm. http://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/weather/snowreport/index.htm
“this late-fall charge by El Niño is a pleasant surprise,”
Uh, Erl predicted this nearly a year ago in commentary at WUWT(his forecast early Spring). NOAA has been on this ‘development’ since its models inkled the SST rise a good 6 months back.
El Nino arrives by Xmas? Not a surprise. The surprise was it arrived 5 months back and threatened, briefly, to dissipate.
D’Aleo had a post recently on the expectations for NA of a solar minimum- negative PDO-El Nino. I wasn’t paying attention to CA, was it rosy?
Pamela said
“I am not sure about the UK. Foggy comes to mind”
Come on Pam, you’ve been watching too many bad American B movies with fog swirling round ‘Hansen’cabs 🙂
Seriously, according to a Dutch study the number of foggy days has halved in Holland in the last 50 years and I would guess the same for the UK-due to pollution controls. This has substantially increased sunshine which presumably would have a positive impact on temperatures.
Apparently it was so smoggy in London in the 1800’s that sunny days were rare-much like Beijing today-that must have substantially held down temperatures
tonyb
..and how about the perk fins? Do they corroborate or gainsay this scientifically based prognosis?
“”” Henry chance (07:50:17) :
Here is where i look for weastern drought patterns.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
I am told some drought is due to irrigation water being shutoff in California. That land use effect can decrease rain also thanks to reports on this site. “””
Well maybe you are TOLD that. That however is not in a peer reviewed paper.
The people who are buying all that way under market priced water out of the Northern California delta, are then reselling at a hefty profit, to grow golf courses in the deserts of SoCal.
And the big Eastern farming conglomerates who own all that land along hiway five; are making sure that the drive by motorists can see the land near the road blowing across the road. Well nobody looks further back from the road to where they are growing crops; it’s all about perception.
Along with Kelvin waves near the Equator, strong winds in the Arctic, widely roaming ice bergs in the Southern Ocean and much else from the weather is not climate departments, we have:
In the Washington Cascades this morning, Interstate 90 eastbound was closed because of snow at Snoqualmie Pass (3,000 ft.), and the rest of the mountain passes (all higher) are likewise dealing with an over supply of snow.
JimB, you could visit and help out the Wash. DOT clean up the mess. Bring several large trunks along and take a little home with you.
“In the American west, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions,” from the text as quoted of JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert. Bill, “the definition of the American West” has changed over the historic settlement period but in our time it does not mean just California.
It is amazing how much the temps change in Oregon compared to where you are in the state. Growing up here as a kid, we used to joke about waiting 10 minutes if you didnt like the current weather.
On the coast during the winter, it is warmer and wetter than the inland valley or the high eastern areas. In the summer its colder and foggy. The total temp swing in a day is less than 10 degrees at times.
The lawn has finally started to grow again. We let it dry out in the summer, so our lawn is green and growing only during the winter months. Locally, we will get up to 80 inches of rain in a 3-5 month window.
This will never get old.
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