From the “WUWT never reports on anything warm department”, JPL reports El Niño looks like it is on schedule to make a Christmas appearance as “The Boy”. The good news is that it will likely help California’s water situation this year.
From NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
El Niño is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/French Space Agency Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October has triggered a strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude. A series of similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and has sustained the present El Niño condition.
This image was created with data collected by the U.S./French satellite during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. It shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that is about 10 to 18 centimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue and purple areas) are between 8 to 15 centimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red and white colors depict areas where sea surface temperatures are more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (two to four degrees Fahrenheit).
“In the American west, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions, this late-fall charge by El Niño is a pleasant surprise, upping the odds for much-needed rain and an above-normal winter snowpack,” said JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert.
For more information on NASA’s ocean surface topography missions, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ ; or to view the latest Jason data, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/.
The geomagnetic, mantle, solar, lunar influences on angular momentum are interesting.
But to tie them to the ENSO would also require a seasonal component as well since about 80% of El Ninos, La Ninas occur in the November to January period. It is more likely, a seasonal atmospheric or ocean cycle influence is the driver.
tallbloke (16:16:33) “I downloaded the LOD data and compared it to changes in Atmospheric angular momentum. What I discovered was than AAM did indeed only account for a small proportion of changes in LOD, roughly 10%.”
You need to remove (from LOD) the decadal oscillations to see what Sidorenkov & others are talking about. Also, in order to gain helpful perspective on the layers of confounding, I highly recommend reading Barkin.
I’ll leave commentary on physical mechanisms to Ninderthana & others who are more qualified to address that apect of these multidisciplinary matters.
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Bill Illis (16:19:48) “to tie them to the ENSO would also require a seasonal component”
Thanks for this note. If you have any related links/articles to share, that will be appreciated.
jorgekafkazar (14:19:19) : In response to my reply to Espen, “I don’t believe the researchers have identified one particular cause for the relaxation of the trade winds. It may change per El Nino,” you wrote, “Given all the mention, data massage, and animation of El Nino itself, it would seem that relaxation of the trade winds is all too quickly shrugged off.”
I wasn’t shrugging off the relaxation of trade winds as an initiator of ENSO events, nor do I think researchers are neglecting it. I believe they simply haven’t found an initiator that is constant or dominant.
Regards
John Finn (12:09:38) “Why do you say this?”
The patterns shared by a variety of solar/geophysical variables are nonrandom. I will leave commentary on the physics to the physicists.
Bill Illis (16:19:48) “80% of El Ninos, La Ninas occur in the November to January period”
I adjusted a wavelet algorithm in light of this insight which you have shared — the result is a pattern 1/4-cycle out of phase with the timing of the blue dots here:
http://www.sfu.ca/~plv/RegimeChangePoints.PNG
Annual ENSO variability “fishtails” in the years just-after major climate shifts.
Bob Tisdale (17:25:40) : “I wasn’t shrugging off the relaxation of trade winds as an initiator of ENSO events, nor do I think researchers are neglecting it. I believe they simply haven’t found an initiator that is constant or dominant.”
Sorry, didn’t mean to imply that you were. It’s just that trade wind relaxation is such an important part of the entire system, that I’d expect to see more about it on climate blogs. Doesn’t it deserve more attention or perhaps a thread of its own?
John Finn (12:09:38) :
Paul Vaughan (07:27:37) :” ….I have become convinced beyond all shadow of a doubt that the arguments that the sun & solar system have no effect on terrestrial climate are not only misleading, but also both ludicrous & scandalous.”
Why do you say this? Could you describe the mechanism by which the sun & solar system affects terrestrial climate?
1. Radiation heats us up
2. Solar wind, storms – interacts with our atmosphere also keeps cosmic radiation at bay – or not
3. Interplanetary dust along the solar plane which we plow through every 100,000 years
1. Radiation heats us up
The sun’s output doesn’t vary sufficiently to explain 20th century warming. This is why we have a number of alternative “theories” such as ….
2. Solar wind, storms – interacts with our atmosphere also keeps cosmic radiation at bay – or not
There has been no trend in GCRs in the past 40-odd years. There has been an upward trend in temperatures.
3. Interplanetary dust along the solar plane which we plow through every 100,000 years
Not really relevant on multi-decadal/centennial timescales.
Re: John Finn (02:39:07)
Picking-off weak arguments is easy; meanwhile there are nonrandom patterns that have not been explained.
Paul Vaughan (10:17:45) :
Re: John Finn (02:39:07)
Picking-off weak arguments is easy; meanwhile there are nonrandom patterns that have not been explained.
what “nonrandom events”?
John Finn (11:33:15) “what “nonrandom events”?”
sorry John – I don’t have time for this
This is fantastic news. I am giddy with anticipation. I really miss the wet 1990s and early 2000s.