From the “WUWT never reports on anything warm department”, JPL reports El Niño looks like it is on schedule to make a Christmas appearance as “The Boy”. The good news is that it will likely help California’s water situation this year.
From NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
El Niño is experiencing a late-fall resurgence. Recent sea-level height data from the NASA/French Space Agency Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2 oceanography satellite show that a large-scale, sustained weakening of trade winds in the western and central equatorial Pacific during October has triggered a strong, eastward-moving wave of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, this warm wave appears as the large area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures) between 170 degrees east and 100 degrees west longitude. A series of similar, weaker events that began in June 2009 initially triggered and has sustained the present El Niño condition.
This image was created with data collected by the U.S./French satellite during a 10-day period centered on November 1, 2009. It shows a red and white area in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that is about 10 to 18 centimeters (4 to 7 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the western equatorial Pacific, where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue and purple areas) are between 8 to 15 centimeters (3 and 6 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red and white colors depict areas where sea surface temperatures are more than one to two degrees Celsius above normal (two to four degrees Fahrenheit).
“In the American west, where we are struggling under serious drought conditions, this late-fall charge by El Niño is a pleasant surprise, upping the odds for much-needed rain and an above-normal winter snowpack,” said JPL oceanographer Bill Patzert.
For more information on NASA’s ocean surface topography missions, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ ; or to view the latest Jason data, see http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/.
Don’cha lurv them acronyms? It rightly reminds me of local farmers talkin’ tractors.
Hhheeeypppp, that thar (petoowee) 359 was one helluva tractor but did ya see thet new fangled 3000F? By godamighty (petoowee) it’ll pull a calf all gentle like and the next minute take on my double hitched bottom plow an’ go straight through them thar clods at ’bout 30 mph. An’ I tain’t lyin neither! (petoowee!) Got em.
Pamela Gray (12:33:32) :
They don’t get thier forecasts from Gore or the IPCC.
They won’t be calling this the Day after Tomorrow, but they might be calling this the year after Global Warming died.
Stormsurf.com keeps track of current ENSO conditions. There is a lot of great information on the site. Surfers love El Nino. Check it out at http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/current.shtml
“jorgekafkazar (10:03:20) :
The foggiest area in London (or the entire UK, for that matter) is found nowadays betwixt St. Margaret St. and the Thames, not far from Westminster Abbey.”
I remember that place. That’d be a really big gothic looking place, right? attached to a really loud bell. *sigh* Loved that at lunchtime.
There was one fog producer on the lawn one day that I walked past….being interviewed by a reporter on camera…
Bill Illis: You asked, “Any chance of turning the ECMWF cross-sections into an animation?”
For this post, I’ll do .gif animation comparisons of those illustrations. Maybe when the El Nino runs its course I’ll animate the subsurface anomalies from the first warm Kelvin wave of this year till the start of the La Nina. Carl Wolk animated the 2007/08 La Nina.
It was part of his “The Evolution of La Nina” post:
http://climatechange1.wordpress.com/2009/02/03/the-evolution-of-la-nina/
And my video comparison of the subsurface temps of 3 major El Ninos was a look at the subsurface temperatures, not anomalies. But for those I was interested in illustrating the effects on the thermocline:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWKFPHJvuF8
forfismum (12:38:07) :
To JimB.
I recall delivering Guinness to a place in the mountains which was “cut-off” by 20′ drifts .That was back in 1962-3 way before Mann and Briffa so hype springs eternal?
I remember that winter. Living in rural Perthshire at the time by mid February both doors were frozen shut and buried under snow, fortunately we were able to climb in and out of a window! That lasted for a couple of weeks before a thaw allow us to use normal access methods.
Most winters in the sixties we were unable to get to school during heavy snowfalls. We had a taxi ride of 4 miles (7 kilometers) then a bus journey of 10 more miles (16 kms). Things are much better now, and long may it continue. My brother rarely gets stuck in snow these days.
“”” Frank Mosher (10:15:20) :
Here in north central California, no sign yet of relief from the drought. Cold and clear today, again. Feels more like a La Nina. Would love to see an El Nino, even though it limits backpacking season. In 97/98 El Nino, had permits to climb Mt. Whitney, in mid July, but couldn’t due to enormous snow depth. Even a moderate El Nino would be a relief, providing the Feds don’t flush the additional water out the delta and thru the Golden Gate, as they did this year……fm “””
Well north central California used to have the largest lake west of the Mississippi; so they had plenty of water. Then as I recall, someone flushed all of that out the Delta and out through the Golden Gate; just so they could get a few more acres to grow cotton on.
What goes around comes around; meanwhile that “excess water” that “the feds” flush out the GG supports the whole ecology of the Monterey Bay; and all its fisheries; which are certainly worth more economically, than a few acres of cotton, as far as California business interests go.
Sorry if it turns out you can’t go hiking on Mt Whitney again this year; I know that is important for you to be able to do that.
Douglas DC (08:20:22) : “I agree,this is like a typical Cold PDO Nino.”
Please provide examples of other “typical Cold PDO NINO.”
I’m always in awe of the size of those Kelvin waves. This one appears to stretch for about 80 degrees longitude,,,
http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/2009/images/20091101G.jpg
…from 170E to 110W–almost 1/4 of the way around the globe.
I recall Joseph D’Aleo’s charts showing the odds of drought in the southwest and rain in the northwest when we have a cold PDO and warm AMO. How is the AMO doing? I am assuming that despite the PDO an El Nino will bring some rain? I sure hope so. San Francisco needs it.
It is 86 fahrenheit here in Brisbane Australia today and beautiful blue skies. So what are you all complaining about?
George E. Smith. I am referring to the devastating losses to agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley. Seems to me i saw a report that unemployment in Mendota was at 40% thjs last summer. Given the distance from the Golden Gate, to Monterey Bay, it seems unlikely to me that a single discharge will do much, if anything, to the Monterey Bay. The reason for the massive discharge was to help the Delta Smelt. As for Mt. Whitney. Having done it twice, i see no reason to do it again. Other than being the highest in the 48 states, there is little else to recommend it, in my opinion.However, abundant precipitation would be welcome throughout Calif.,Arizona, Nevada, etc.
The PDO has moved slightly positive since August.
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
The AMO has been positive since June at about 0.2C
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data
The Nino region weekly indices are moving higher. Nino 3.4 is up to 1.7C for the week ending November 4th (the highest weekly number since 2002).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for
Pamela Gray (08:20:06) :
El Nino is not a big drought producer.
Different story over here of course (Oz), El nino is associated with drought and La nina with rain, mainly affecting the southern states on the east coast.
I moved to Burbank in August, until that time the LA area had not seen rain in two years, so I am told. Since the end of the Station Fire, we’ve had two rain storms, one of which was last night. El Nino is evidently having an effect, or it may just be me bringing the rain from the east coast.
Since the Santa Ana winds came in last month its been pretty much pleasant here.
I am told the Station Fires still are smoking with a lot of underground root burning going on that will continue until we get a good soaking rain.
Four months ago I posted this, and I still stand by it.
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tallbloke (15:03:05) : 15th July 2009
Bob Tisdale (13:29:33) :
tallbloke: My thoughts at present are that El Nino Modoki events are aftereffects of the more significant traditional El Nino events that precede them.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/07/similarities-of-multiyear-periods.html
And there have been some big ones after solar minimum in the last few cycles. However, I think they have been helped along by the advent of the next strong cycle, and that’s not happening this time round. All el nino’s are different, the classification we put on them is our taxonomy, not natures order. Maybe this one is a new type of el nino, as they all are in their own way.
My prediction is for a UAH global anomaly of 0.35 in october, followed by a plateau of switchy spikes then slow decline to a deep low mid N.H. autumn next year.
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Well UAH for October came in at 0.284, slightly under my prediction, but I think the general drift is about right.
Question/request that Bob Tisdale may be able to answer.
It appears there is both an atmospheric and oceanic heat content contribution to El Ninos.
Sea level height data would appear to a pure measure of the atmospheric contribution (trade winds).
Whereas SSTs would be some combination of the 2 causes.
A graph of Sea level height against SSTs over the El Nino area would help tease out the 2 causes.
Are sea level height and SSTs highly correlated or not?
If they are then it would seem El Ninos are purely an atmospheric effect and nothing to do with ocean heat content. A very interesting conclusion and quite contrary to the general belief.
@JimB. Take a look at the national satellite image on the sidebar right now. Is that system with its feet in the Pacific affected in any way by El Nino?
Anyway, looks like a great Nor’easter is coming out of that fading tropical storm off the east coast. Storm tides should make for interesting tides in the New England ports. It’s worse than we imagined. Very robust.
It is 32 deg. f here in Pullman (southeast) Washington state and snowing real pretty like a Christmas card. It’s Dads’ weekend at Washington State University and the UCLA (southern California) Bruins are coming here for a football game tomorrow. May they freeze off their fingers the first time they touch the turf of Martin Stadium (go Cougs!).
Satellite measurements of temperature are actually, I believe, based on a measure of sea level, not an actual heat measure. When water is warmer, you have more of it, so to speak (sea level increases). When water is colder, sea level goes down. Satellites can measure these bulges, ripples, waves, and valleys, and then assign a temperature value to them. With the equatorial water just sitting there getting heated by the Sun, you get Kelvin wave bulges of warm water sloshing West to East along the equatorial belt. When the trade winds, blowing East to West, kick up, the warm layer is blown West and the cold water lowers sea level. So SST’s are very much related to sea level height and you can use one to calculate the other.
By the way Douglas, La Grande now looks like a white skating rink based on road cameras. Did I call it or did I call it???
http://www.tripcheck.com/Pages/RCMap.asp?mainNav=RoadConditions&curRegion=3
Hey, I like this warming theme. PS Some obviously manipulated data here: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
If you, Tallbloke, have been getting these predictions close to the mark, than perhaps you could write an article on this site highlighting your observations, your past predictions that came true, and what’s ahead for the future.
It could be interesting. 🙂
That’s good, something to push the jet stream up a little bit so that blob of cold air that calved off of the mass in Siberia and is moving East gets skipped over into the middle of the continent.
Good heavens! I-84 is now closed in two places! And before Thanksgiving!
http://www.tripcheck.com/Pages/RCMap.asp?mainNav=RoadConditions&curRegion=3