NASA grant to create Mars weather forecasts

From a Texas A&M Press Release

http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/jpeg/PIA11418.jpg
Mars, Image: NASA JPL

Is there such a thing as “weather” on Mars? There are some doubts, considering the planet’s atmosphere is only 1 percent as dense as that of the Earth. Mars, however, definitely has clouds, drastically low temperatures and out-of-this-world dust storms, and Istvan Szunyogh, a Texas A&M professor of atmospheric sciences, has been awarded a NASA grant to analyze and forecast Martian weather.

Mars is the most Earth-like planet we know, but it is still quite different. For example, it is much colder on Mars.

The south pole of the Earth is covered by water ice, but the south pole of Mars wears a dry ice (frozen carbon dioxide) cap. In winter, the temperature at the poles can dip to -140°C (-220 degrees Fahrenheit), which is so cold that even carbon dioxide freezes.

“Planet-encircling Martian dust storms, which occur every two to four Mars years, can cover the whole planet with dust for months,” notes Szunyogh, who is working with colleagues from the University of Maryland and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., to forecast Martian weather.

Why care about weather on Mars? After all, nobody lives, works or goes to school there.

“Martian weather forecasts, in the short term, can drastically increase the safety of landing robotic exploration missions,” comments colleague Mark Lemmon, a Texas A&M professor of atmospheric sciences who has led or participated in many Mars exploratory events. “In the long run, it is indispensible for the safe returning of astronauts in future manned explorations.

“The two rovers currently working on Mars are solar-powered, and their lives end when their batteries run out,” Lemmon adds. “Dust storms block the sun and shorten their battery life, and winds, on the other hand, can clear their solar panels so their batteries recharge faster.”

Weather forecasting is not tossing dice. It must build on solid data.

“All weather forecasts, including those on TV, are based on model forecasts of the different physical parameters of the Earth’s atmosphere such as temperature, wind and pressure,” Szunyogh says. “The main goal of our project is to explore the possibility of obtaining accurate quantitative estimates of these parameters of the Martian atmosphere.

“These parameters will be obtained from the available remotely sensed Martian observations,” he adds. “Then the data can be fed into Mars global circulation models, producing Martian weather forecasts like what we have for Earth.”

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DaveE
November 4, 2009 4:05 pm

hotrod (15:45:52) :
Similarly, aircraft have a conducting rubber on the nose wheel to discharge static on landing.
DaveE.

November 4, 2009 4:09 pm

I can see a tax on all of us rich gas-guzzling westerners to pay for Martian warming – sorry – climate change.
Oh yes, and big oil can cough up first to pay for turning MARS (bars) into a des(s)ert just for starters.

Editor
November 4, 2009 4:25 pm

Who wrote this piece? It reads like a paper in a freshman high school science class, trying extra hard to write for a sixth grade reading audience.
That said, if this guy bases his weather predictions on actual data (hopefully the satellites we have in orbit provide sufficient data, there obviously is a significant lack of surface stations), this will be a good thing, because if we can show more quantitatively that Mars climate changes are in sync with Earth’s then the argument for solar causes to climate change become stronger.

gigajoule
November 4, 2009 4:50 pm

hotrod (15:45:52) :
The atmosphere on Mars is 1% of earth’s atmosphere, so:
“The problem of generating dust storms on Mars is how to get the particles on the surface to “saltate”, or leave the surface, with such little force in the wind.”
So the question is, with such a thin atmosphere, how do you get dust devils the size of Mt Everest? There could not be enough charge generated by the dust. Rather, the dust devils are raising the dust storms. Please read the holoscience article for a fuller sense.

gigajoule
November 4, 2009 4:55 pm

hotrod (15:45:52) :
Likewise dust agitation in volcanic plumes has been accepted as the mechanism for intense lightning discharges during volcanic eruptions.

Alaskan Volcano Spits Lightning
“The cause of volcanic lightning is poorly understood. Traditionally, geologists have assumed that the cause is similar to that of lightning in thunderstorms: Tiny particles rub against each other in a turbulent flow of air, and the larger particles, which move slower, are charged to a different polarity from the smaller particles, which move faster. The two groups of particles would accumulate in separate regions, and the voltage difference between them would produce lightning. But this is an assumption that is not supported by theory or the facts. It is part of a general confusion that continues to haunt the sciences of geology and meteorology today.
New discoveries have deepened the mysteries of volcanic lightning. A recent news story reports on a study into volcanic electrical phenomena occurring in the eruption of Mt. Augustine in Alaska. The website LiveScience.com writes: “The lightning in a volcanic eruption occurs because the ash and other debris blasting out of the volcano are highly charged…. Though lightning was known to occur in the debris clouds above the volcano, the researchers found an earlier phase of volcanic lightning that had never before been observed and occurred right at the volcano’s mouth just as it began erupting.”
editor: Stephen Smith

crosspatch
November 4, 2009 5:01 pm

Wasn’t GISS originally designed for this task before it was turned to doing Earth modeling and observation? I believe they were initially created to do climate research for other planets’ atmospheres. Sounds like something constructive they could do with their time.

rbateman
November 4, 2009 5:09 pm

When Mars came on it’s closest approach in late 2002 or 2003 (can’t remember which) it was a grand sight in a 25″ Dob, and the South Polar Ice Cap shone like a glacier in the distance. Then, the planet got engulfed in a 6 month global sandstorm, and nobody could see anything.
From what I have observed, Mars does have weather, though it’s rather on the infrequent side of things, but very violent when it happens.
If we are ever going to terraform and colonize Mars, we do need to understand Martian weather. In fact, we need to understand the weather of many Planets in order to better appreciate our own.

November 4, 2009 5:18 pm

Provided the forecasts can be verified somehow, this is not such a bad idea. If we had 20 planets all around us with different physical conditions and climate, there is a good chance the climate would be understood, as different planets would probe different corners of the theory. There is an analogy with stellar evolution: because we observe many different kinds of stars with different characteristics we have been able to piece together [because theory can be guided by observation] a compelling picture of the birth, life, and death of stars.

hotrod
November 4, 2009 6:01 pm

Leif Svalgaard (17:18:48) :
Provided the forecasts can be verified somehow, this is not such a bad idea. If we had 20 planets all around us with different physical conditions and climate, there is a good chance the climate would be understood, as different planets would probe different corners of the theory.

The nice thing about Mars is having no large liquid oceans it would/should be easier to “model”. It would be funny if the GCM’s worked just fine on Mars and still failed here on the earth. That would certainly point a finger at the oceans and water vapor.

royfomr
November 4, 2009 6:03 pm

I’m confused ie situation normal. Is the first M in MMGW Man, Mann or Martian?
I sort of got the analogy between Venus and Alka-Seltza (cheers NOAA) but am completely nonplussed as to why the way of the warmist should be allowed to influence scientific funding!!

November 4, 2009 6:07 pm

gigajoule (16:50:56) :
So the question is, with such a thin atmosphere, how do you get dust devils the size of Mt Everest?

gigajoule (14:47:41) :
The problem of generating dust storms on Mars is how to get the particles on the surface to “saltate”, or leave the surface, with such little force in the wind.

.
Mars’ gravity is only 38% of Earth’s, so the high winds don’t have any trouble lifting the dust.

Indiana Bones
November 4, 2009 6:11 pm

Weather prediction for Mars makes perfect sense for those who regularly travel and vacation there. Most however, do not fit this select group and must settle for the brochure photography.

Mawone51
November 4, 2009 6:12 pm

The only thing as crazy as the thought of this Grant is the thought of Global warming.

Indiana Bones
November 4, 2009 6:17 pm

Also, let’s not forget our own CMEX “Mars Today” widget here at WUWT;)

Greg S
November 4, 2009 6:20 pm

Sounds cold. Remind me again what percentage of the atmosphere on Mars is CO2?

royfomr
November 4, 2009 6:21 pm

Just a technical observation of the moment. On the iPhone and pm mobile option on a gsm environment I’ve submitted half a dozen comments that died on route.
The last one got through but only ‘cos I took off the mobile option!

David S
November 4, 2009 6:56 pm

Looks like a dust storm coming up. We might have to cancel the picnic.

Patrick Davis
November 4, 2009 7:03 pm

So more orders for $10,000 hammers and $20,000 toilet seats? Money well spent – NOT!

Jeff Alberts
November 4, 2009 8:27 pm

and out-of-this-world dust storms

I certainly hope so!

Editor
November 4, 2009 8:55 pm

gigajoule (16:50:56) :
“So the question is, with such a thin atmosphere, how do you get dust devils the size of Mt Everest? There could not be enough charge generated by the dust. Rather, the dust devils are raising the dust storms. Please read the holoscience article for a fuller sense.”
Keep in mind that Mars gravity is 1/3 that of Earth, and with less atmo, this has allowed meteorites to pulverise things quite finely, without much water to hold things down. Most dust on Earth is heavier because it is simply wetter. Dust devils form here where it is dryest, not where the wind is highest. Same on Mars. Those big storms are not powerful, they are just big.

gigajoule
November 4, 2009 9:16 pm

Mike McMillan (18:07:00) :
Mars’ gravity is only 38% of Earth’s, so the high winds don’t have any trouble lifting the dust.

How do you get the high winds in a near vacuum? Will the thermal effects of solar radiation provide enough energy for the storms, which engulf the planet and last for months?

mr.artday
November 4, 2009 9:53 pm

Can we trust NASA/NOAA to accurately report Martian weather if it tracks Earth weather thereby putting AGW in doubt. True, Mars evidently lacks UHIs to put the thermometers in, but Hansen can surely find some way to cook the numbers. (Sarc off).

UK Sceptic
November 5, 2009 12:57 am

Forecasting Earth weather/climate with models – epic fail
Forecasting Martian weather/climate with models – who’s gonna contradict us?
You couldn’t make it up, could you?

November 5, 2009 8:07 am

Forecasting Earth weather/climate with models – epic fail
Forecasting Martian weather/climate with models – who’s gonna contradict us?
You couldn’t make it up, could you?
OH! You’re my new favorite blogger fyi

Joel
November 5, 2009 11:17 am

Greg S (18:20:27) :
[i]Sounds cold. Remind me again what percentage of the atmosphere on Mars is CO2?[/i]
As a non-scientist, I have experienced first hand the effects of atmospheric compression. In northern california, the Redding/Shasta Lake area gets hotter than hades during the summer months. The cause? low elevation, surrounded by mountains. The mountain air drops down into the valley, compressing and heating up the whole time. The result is a super hot pressure pit.
As I understand it, venus is the same way. The atmostpheric pressure is so high (more than 90 times that of earth), that it is much hotter on venus than can be explained solely by it’s closer proximity to the sun.
Mars is the opposite, almost no atmospheric pressure compared to earth, and very very cold. The implication? Atmospheric pressure has as much or more effect on temperature than composition.