In the past decade, since the release of the flawed 1998 study by Michael Mann, now known as MBH 98, the phrase “hockey stick” has been used to describe a certain shape of a graph. It has also become synonymous with poor data selection and bad statistical procedure.
Yet again and again we see climate studies pushing this hockey stick shape as a way of saying we are “living in the worst time period of the data”.
Here, without statistics, without bristlecone pines, inverted lake sediments, midge larvae carcasses, larch trees in Yamal, or convoluted never before seen statistical methods, I present a directly measured data set that produces a real “hockey stick” shape.
The data is directly measured and not a proxy, the plot is real. There’s no data adjustment or statistical manipulation. Care to know what it is?
From the website “Calculated Risk“
Here is the monthly Fannie Mae hockey stick graph …
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
Fannie Mae reported today that the rate of serious delinquencies – at least 90 days behind – for conventional loans in its single-family guarantee business increased to 4.45% in August, up from 4.17% in July – and up from 1.57% in August 2008.
“Includes seriously delinquent conventional single-family loans as a percent of the total number of conventional single-family loans. These rates are based on conventional single-family mortgage loans and exclude reverse mortgages and non-Fannie Mae mortgage securities held in our portfolio.”
Just more evidence of the growing delinquency problem, although these stats do include Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) loans in trial modifications.
Now that’s a hockey stick to be worried about.
It hardly is a surprise then that when we see that sort of graph of actual data in the American economy, we start to see graphs like this one depicting confidence in climate change as an important issue:
Source: Pew Poll, story here
(h/t to WUWT reader Michael)