While early autumn snowstorms aren’t uncommon in US weather history, they tend to be quick affairs that melt off quickly in a day or two. This however is a bit different in that we have a significant portion of the northern Midwest plains and northern Rockies are snow covered and it is not quickly dissipating, in fact it is increasing. Since October 10th the coverage has increased from 13.2% of the USA covered by snow.
This map below is from NOAA’s NOHRSC National Snow Analysis page.
Here is the accompanying table and discussion:
October 13, 2009
| Area Covered By Snow: | 19.9% |
| Area Covered Last Month: | 0.0% |
| Snow Depth | |
|---|---|
| Average: | 0.7 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 728.8 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 2.1 in |
| Snow Water Equivalent | |
| Average: | 0.1 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 403.4 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 0.4 in |
By way of comparison, here is the October 13th USA snow cover for the last few years:
2003- .7
2004- .3
2005- 1.7
2006- 3.7
2007- .3
2008-12.7
2009-19.9
What is also interesting is the 6 year trend of snow depth on this date.
2003- 38.2 in
2004-322.6 in
2005-456.9 in
2006-223.2 in
2007-458.1 in
2008-600.6 in
2009-728.8 in
You can watch the snow cover advance in the animation they provide:
Click for animation of the last 72 hours
Weather Summary
A series of potent systems moved across the coterminous U.S. this weekend, and they brought snow to the north and rain to the south. Late last week, heavy rain fell across the south, which continued to aggravate river flooding and keep soils most.
On Friday, up to 1 foot of snow fell at higher elevations in Wyoming, mainly due to upslope flow from a surface low which moved across the Plains. This same system produced up to 1 1/2 feet of snow to mainly Nebraska Friday and Saturday. Lighter amounts – up to 1/2 foot – fell across the southern Dakotas. On Monday, another system produced light snow across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Much of the Western snowpack is cold and stable due due to unseasonably cold air temperatures in those areas. Along the southern edge of the snowpack – from southeastern Idaho to southern Wyoming and from southern Nebraska through southern Iowa, warm and melting conditions were present.
A deep, strong offshore system off the West Coast with potent onshore flow will cause widespread heavy rainfall across the northern two-thirds of California. Up to a foot of snow is possible in the high-elevation central Sierra Nevada, but it will be mixed with rain.
The energy of this West Coast system will shift northward and bring moderate rainfall – 1 to 2 inches – to the coastal Northwest and the Cascades on Wednesday and Thursday.
A midlevel trough will develop across the eastern U.S., and a stationary front across the South will be a focus for heavy rainfall through midweek, and this rain will shift to the Middle Atlantic states late this week.
As the West Coast system lifts northward, midlevel ridging will develop progress smartly across the West. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to be above freezing in much of the West by Friday. The ridge will move into the central U.S. by the weekend and bring seasonable temperatures to the Plains and Upper Midwest, causing snowmelt there.
Snow Reports
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h/t to WUWT reader Mike Bryant
Got to watch ORiley tonight on Fox. Ug. Dennis Miller is to say attacks on Al Gore are just the tip of the iceberg.
@richard Heg (09:55:00) :
and in Poland.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8307661.stm
But I’m more interested what conditions have created such weather pattern in Europe with jet streams making 360 deg loop pushing cold polar masses over central Europe. See some maps:
j-streams:
http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_norhem_00.gif
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/EU/2xJetStream.html
temp:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html
EUMETSAT precip.:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/CENTRALEUROPE/index.htm
EUMETSAT air masses:
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/CENTRALEUROPE/index.htm
NATO / MIL Access Site – Air Force Portal:
http://131.54.120.150/index.cfm?section=MetsatAnal
Signum temporis aka “global cooling” or a freak weather?
Regards
To what record are you refering, I cannot find any reference to that in this thread other than your question.
Moraine lake sits on the east slope of pikes peak just above Colorado Springs and Manitou springs, so it collects cold air coming down off Pikes peak.
Google map 38.812326 -104.994857
Manitou springs is at about 6400 ft elevation and had temperatures in the low 20’s late and 30’s during the Period Oct 12-13.
With normal lapse rates of 5 deg F/thousand feet, temps at 10000 ft in that area should have been near the teens.
Larry
This site has hourly weather for Moraine Lake Colorado for the last few days.
http://www.hamweather.net/cgi-bin/hw3/hw3.cgi?config=&forecast=obarchive&icao=KAFF&day=2&place=lake+moraine&state=co&zipcode=&country=us&county=08041&zone=COZ081&icao=KAFF
Larry
Early snow and traffic Chaos in Germany (google translate):
Snowstorm caused mass accident on A20
Multiple pile-ups in case of snow on the A20
Austria:
The winter moves in with new records
And of course you find these kinds of News, too:
Earlier snow, but warm winter
You see, warming will continue. BBQ winter for Austria is expected…
still getting a bit of late snow in Victoria Australia
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26213024-12377,00.html
superDBA
When I look for the lake I get not so cold.
http://www.hamweather.net/local/us/co/lake+moraine/wxn460129.html
No doubt we will hear that this is just more “extreme weather” predicted by the models.
I really do need to learn how to do the link thingy. Check out this – El Nino models clearly expecting less of the white stuff.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
@David S (13:43:15) :
Hmmm early snowfalls and record low temps. Is Al Gore planning to speak somewhere?
This is yet another example of the Gore Effect. Al Gore was in Wisconsin last week (Friday, 9 Oct) speaking to 500 environmental journalists about his favorite topic.
Perhaps the good folk in Vancouver, B.C. might consider booking Mr. Gore to speak on his belief system just prior to the 2010 Winter Olympics ~ just to ensure a good punch of winter weather.
@MattN (09:39:56) :
If you look at Europe and Northern Asia pressure pattern there is alternate sequence of Highs and Lows which works like gigantic sucking pumps drawing polar air onto Europe and Asia. Perhaps there lies the cause of the early snow both here in Europe and there in Asia?
See the map (today!):
Asia temp:
http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/temperature_north_asia.html
Asia pressure:
http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/pressure_north_asia.html
Europe temp:
http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/temperature_europe.html
Europe pressure:
http://www.findlocalweather.com/weather_maps/pressure_europe.html
Former maps a few days older would reveal better the pattern dragging cold air from the North but I got no archives.
Regards
Please excuse the free ad re Goreacle & FruitFly Suzy.
George Galloway, pro-terrorist MP from Britain, was barred from entering Canada.
Why not Goreacle?
…-
NK (13:53:30) :
“Is Al Gore planning to speak somewhere?
Where is that pesky ManBearPig?”
“Former U.S. vice-president Al Gore to speak in Toronto Nov. 24”
“Proceeds from the Toronto event, at the Allstream Centre at Exhibition Place, will go to the David Suzuki Foundation.
In a release, MTS Allstream executive Dean Prevost says Gore is recognized across the world for his passion on environmental issues.”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5hoXXgw2nhdj3_oxZn_FQ2FYNbCzg
Invariant (12:27:10) :
“rbateman (10:59:31) : If you don’t know how it works (cooler climate associated with Deep Solar Minimum) then you don’t know when it started working.”
“This is expected! Ocean heat content drop causing early frost and snow is expected due to Deep Solar Minimum. The same happened in the beginning of the previous century when Titanic hit an ice berg. To me this is obvious, and I am struggling to understand why a brilliant scientist like Dr. Svalgaard is still sitting on the fence and says that any connection between solar activity and clouds is not proved [yet].”
Because it hasn’t been proven yet. I’ve had a keen interest in science since I was young, but I am not a scientist. Having said that, even I know that “coincidence is not causation”. This reinforces what Robert Bateman (rbateman) was essentially saying, and what I believe Dr. Svalgaard has said previously, which is if you can’t demonstrate the mechanism by which the sun controls the earth’s climate, then you don’t have the data to claim that the sun controls the earth’s climate.
While a position that the sun controls the climate seems reasonable, it is not a claim that many honest scientists will make at this time, as the earth’s climate is at the center of 3 very complex, non-linear systems, none of which we understand very well: the sun, the oceans, and the atmosphere. And other systems contribute as well-volcanoes for example-again, their influence on the climate is not that well understood, particularly underwater volcanoes.
Which leads me to ask the WUWT crowd a general question about something I really don’t understand, and have seen little discussion of: What effect on temperature and climate does the solar wind, CMEs and solar flares have? There is a tremendous amount of energy in these phenomena, enough to light up the Polar Regions for days or weeks at a time. These highly charged particles also carry a very large amount of kinetic energy because of their speed. So when they hit the earth, where does all that energy go? Someone please enlighten me. Thanks!
Dan Murphy
Re David S:
Al Gore is said to be in Argentina, where Buenos aires in July 2007 saw the first snowfall since 1918:
Could be that this latest snow is the Gore Effect “warming up” for Copenhagen…
Sometimes the nature interferes by its own means, when it is due time. Napoleon, Hitler armies froze badly in decisive moments. I guess, now it is another decisive moment. God´s fingers, nature´s common sense, knights from Blanik, call it as you wish.
here in Canuckistan, just a few days ago in British Columbia there was a record for the number of records broken in one day. Those just happened to be low temperature records, and most of those records where broken by a large margin.
I live in MN and there was momentary snow that was on the ground for a day but its gone from central mn north to the border. Day time temps are in the 40’s and the ground is still unfrozen. Ponds are open etc.
Dan Murphy (15:59:55) :
Great questions. I’m a little surprised that our resident solar science curmudgeon hasn’t turned up yet to address them, but I think most of us are in… “gee, what’s gonna happen next?” mode. The science is not settled. And it’s getting chilly in New England…
I don’t know if you guys remember the show “In Search Of” with host Leonard Nemoy in the 1970’s. The other day I was surfing around and found a link to this video. It is about global cooling and the coming of the new ice age. The video is in 3 parts. I encourage everyone to watch it. It was not the content so much (though great) that interested me, it was the eerily familiar use of language that captivated me. I was in stitches!
http://algorelied.com/?p=2839
“God´s fingers, nature´s common sense, knights from Blanik, call it as you wish.”
I see similarity with Adam Smith’s “invisible hand”.
Dan Murphy,
I think it is safe to say at this point, the Sun is a major player in our planet’s climate, and I say this with high regard to recent solar activity of past 3 years correlated with recent personal climate observations.
I would also say, not to be alarmist, we are underestimating the solar effect at our own detriment. Perhaps we should be spending more money on studying the solar affects on or climate in order to give us a better heads up on what to expect, not that we can do anything about what the Sun is doing.
“Perhaps the good folk in Vancouver, B.C. might consider booking Mr. Gore to speak on his belief system just prior to the 2010 Winter Olympics ~ just to ensure a good punch of winter weather”
I sent him an email invite, explaining that based on his outstanding record, he is a natural for our Big Event next Feb.
Still waiting for a reply
If it is anything like last winter, we can ignore The Goreacle. This picture
http://www.panoramio.com/photo/21859766
was taken about 250 yards away from where the opening ceremonies will take place and very close to the Olympic Village.
Not very typical for downtown Vancouver, but it sure looked nice for Christmas last year . . . as long as you didn’t have to drive.
RE: George E. Smith (14:02:53) :
“Well so much for that 50 year storm.”
A number of one day rainfall records, previously set by the Columbus Day Storm of 1962, were broken. Miner Ridge in Monterey County got over 18 inches of rain. This was not data manipulation.
I would add, however, that this event owed to a polar jet moving south several weeks earlier than normal, allowing the grab of the Melor remnant. Another leading indicator of global cooling?
October one day records.
Big weather front over all of Europe
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/model_overlays&PROD=500mb_Hghts&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=over&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=over.cgi&CURRENT=20091014.1800.composite.500mb_heights_model_overlays_mediterranean_mediterranean.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15
Near hurricane conditions in Newfoundland
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=atlantic/model_overlays&PROD=500mb_Hghts&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=over&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=over.cgi&CURRENT=20091014.1800.composite.500mb_heights_model_overlays_eatl_atlantic.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15
NAO is negative as during the cool part of the summer
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
BBC are pushing Pen Hadow stating Arctic summer ice will be gone in 10 years