After an exciting encounter last week with some genuine sunspots that weren’t arguable as specks, pores, or pixels, the sun resumes its quiet state this week.
People send me things. Here’s the latest email from Paul Stanko, who has been following the solar cycle progression in comparison to previous ones.
Hi Anthony,
Out of the numbered solar cycles, #24 is now in 7th place. Only 5, 6, and 7 of the Dalton Minimum and cycles 12, 14, and 15 of the Baby Grand Minimum had more spotless days. Since we’ve now beaten cycle #13, we are clearly now competitive with the Baby Grand minimum.
Here’s a table of how the NOAA panel’s new SC#24 prediction is doing:
November 2008: predicted = 1.80, actual = 1.67 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 83.7)
December 2008: predicted = 1.80, actual = 1.69 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 84.7)
January 2009: predicted = 2.10, actual = 1.71 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 73.2)
February 2009: predicted = 2.70, actual = 1.67 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 55.6)
March 2009: predicted = 3.30, actual = 1.97 (predicted peak of 90 suggests an actual peak of 53.8)
April would require the October data which is still very incomplete. If this analysis intrigues you, I’d be happy to keep you updated on it. Please also find a couple of interesting graphs attached as images.
Paul Stanko
Here’s the graphs, the current cycle 24 and years of interest are marked with a red arrow:
And how 2008/2009 fit in:
UK Sceptic (11:15:52) :
“Meanwhile the UK merrily destroys its energy security and continues to tilt billions at wind turbines…”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/6248257/Planned-recession-could-avoid-catastrophic-climate-change.html
Quoting Leif on solarcycle24.com:
For 1027 [1026 he didn’t get], the mean of 12 spots over 4 days was:
1917 Gauss for field strength
0.850 for contrast
Needless to say [!] the results fall just where they should be:
http://www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png
” Phillip Bratby (11:51:10) :
Fred from Canuckistan . . . (10:52:41) :
“Buy long underwear”.
Log store full, oil tank full, food store full. Anything else we should do? ”
Learn to like hockey, curling & ice fishing 🙂
The bright side is you can think of the outdoors as a giant walk-in beer fridge 🙂 🙂 🙂
This will make an anti fossil fuel movement — already suggesting evil things, as to put a carbon cap on development countries — extra evil.
I think we need yet more towards non-toxic-, non-polluting-, and fertilizing CO2 positive pro-fossil resistance, but also reveal the environmentalism as a pro-regulation common political discource.
What a task… This site’s absolutely great!
There has not been a new topic posted over at Real Climate since September 30th. Whatts the matter? Do they all have their panties in a bind over there?
REPLY: They post a new topic once a week, that has been the schedule for months. – A
I like comparisons of “predicted” aka soothsaying verses “actual”. If more of these comparisons with regards to climate science were shown in the media more people would realize the futility of the predictive aspects of weather forecasting in the longer term also known as climate forecasting. It’s funny that people know that the weather forecasts are going to be wrong one week to ten days out or even wrong for the next day but they accept without question the doom-saying scenarios of extreme long range weather forecasting that the climate will implode on us. I guess it’s easy to accept that man has mucked it up. Yup, some of us have mucked it up and those are the ones projecting climate on long range time scales using simplistic models expecting them to be able to have any accuracy when confronted with the inbuilt randomness of natural weather and climate cycles.
So please continue the comparisons of forecasters, whether or not they are weathermen or climate scientists. I’d love to see a detailed comparison between what the IPCC and Dr. Mann et. al. have predicted verses what Nature has actually tossed us. I think these sorts of comparisons need to be shown to people in as simple language as possible so that the widest range of people can comprehend it.
pwl (12:14:06) :
Here’s Piers Corbyn’s success record : …showing a success rate of 85%…
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact5&fsize=0
Activity on the sun is the main ingredient in his forecasts.
Here is his 100 year forecast :
As has been noted on WUWT, there were increased clouds in 2007 and 2008. Correlation is not causation as we know, but this would be a prediction of the GCR theory of increased clouds from a quiet sun. If we did not observe the increased clouds, the theory would have to be examined to see where it is going wrong. Something that the AGW folks seem to have a problem doing since they have transformed it from science to a religion. You might as well be arguing transubstantiation with them as to get them to accept scientific evidence. All I know is that the historical record of 1911-1913 showed a global cooling that somehow has not been “adjusted out” of the Hadley data. We have had an increased albedo due to clouds and a cooling for the past two years. Some of this is probably due to the down slope of the AMO with regard to cooling. I suggest to the Brits that they may find the predictions made by Hadley to be a bit off again this year. Wind and solar are all very nice and well. But when the sun does not shine and your turbine blades have a load of ice on them, things are not quite so pretty.
Leif Svalgaard (12:01:21) :
Hi Leif,
As usual you are correct. 🙂 The most accurate way to state it since the minima are considered the borders between cycles would be 23-24, 23 to 24, or something like that. Hope I got the quote feature syntax right, and thanks for making sure I stay honest. Have a great day all!
“Michael (11:31:44) :
Scientists have been given godlike powers and hold sway over all our lives.
How many people on the entire planet do those scientists they speak of are enumerated at? Lets just agree that number would be .001% of the entire population. So you are telling me that .001% of the population hold sway over my life without a debate?
I want the names of these people. They have been given too much power to ruin our lives.
I want a complete and thorough dissertation done on this subject.
Thank You.”
I recall an interesting discussion on this topic called, “It’s Time for a Change”
on holoscience.com. The author discusses the power of scientists in society over the “unscientific masses”, aka scientism. http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=6bcdajsb
From Wik:
“The term scientism is used to describe the view that natural science has authority over all other interpretations of life, such as philosophical, religious, mythical, spiritual, or humanistic explanations, and over other fields of inquiry, such as the social sciences. The term is used by social scientists like Hayek[1] or Karl Popper to describe what they see as the underlying attitudes and beliefs common to many scientists. “
Gene Nemetz (12:21:41) :
Here’s Piers Corbyn’s success record : …showing a success rate of 85%…
The 85% refers to:
“March to Sept 2008 showing a success rate of 85%”
Activity on the sun is the main ingredient in his forecasts.
Except there was no solar activity during that interval…
The wild card:
Solar Minimum versus volcanic activity:
http://209.85.129.132/search?q=cache:dtuqhJKoOs0J:www.khalilov.biz/pdf/About%2520possible%2520influence%2520of%2520solar%2520activity%2520upon%2520seismic%2520and%2520volcanic%2520activities%25203.pdf+solar+activity+and+volcanic+eruptions&cd=15&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
” Leif Svalgaard (12:01:21) :
The first of Paul’s plots shows cycle 24 to have had 738 spotless days. This is quite remarkable considering that cycle 24 is less than a year old….”
Presumably, the graph might more accurately, though cumbersomely be titled: “Number of Spotless Days During the Minimum Between Cycles n-1 and n”?
Surely one might offer a suggested correction without the need to make a pejorative comment?
ShrNfr (12:26:36) :
increased clouds in 2007 and 2008…if we did not observe the increased clouds, the theory would have to be examined to see where it is going wrong
If light from stars didn’t bend around the sun then General Relativity would have to be examined too. But it did.
And there is an increase in clouds as you point out. So this is more evidence that Henrik Svensmark is correct. Time will tell more.
Paul Stanko (12:28:37) :
The most accurate way to state it since the minima are considered the borders between cycles would be 23-24, 23 to 24
So ’24’ means from maximum of 23 to maximum of 24.
Now, you also have a cycle 1, which then must be from maximum of cycle 0 to maximum of cycle 1 … There are no daily sunspot numbers for cycle 0… and lots of data gaps before cycle 8, so one cannot really count spotless days before cycle 8…
“REPLY: They post a new topic once a week, that has been the schedule for months. – A”
Thanks for correcting my error. I was confused because they only have 300 and something comments on their last topic.
Whether the Sun is at fault or not, Intellicast is showing below normal temps. here all week next week, not sure about the rest of the NH because it would be cooling overall for the Winter.
The Southern Hemisphere is set to get warm though, with the forecast maps showing some wild temperature swings in the southern half of South America for instance, “Not quite an El Nino” is showing no strengthening as well and Ocean Temps in the SH seemingly on their way down.
Ern Matthews (11:53:59) :
are we gearing up for the big one in 2012??
The one term wonder loses his job? Just asking. 🙂
And Sarah Palin becomes president. Just answering.
Leif: You only offer criticism. Surely the sun is always active? What explanation do you have for Piers Corbyn’s success rate compared to that of the Met Office?
Leif
What do you think of the paper linked by Ron De Hann above?
Leif Svalgaard (12:33:19) :
It’s good that you were able to pick up on that from the link. This is why I posted a link, i.e., so that anyone can go and read it for themselves.
From this, and all the additional audit information on Piers Corbyn at the linkyou would agree that he has a fantastic record? Also, do you know of someone better?
For anyone who is not familiar with this famous old work …
Sunspots And Their Effect – Harlan True Stetson
Something all Americans should justly treasure IMHO.
Always worth a read when you’ve settled in front of a log fire on a chilly night having done something like, oh I don’t know, tended to a ewe that sadly in the end died giving birth but you’ve managed to successfully get the surviving lamb paired with the single of another ewe with a good udder. It seems to cheer the heart and puts things back into perspective again somehow. Haven’t the faintest idea why!
Can’t say anything about it’s claimed predictive qualitied, I;m not really interested in that. It’s just a good read. The correlations in the underlying work are said to fairly remarkable though.
I also think there’s a staggering amount that we don’t yet understand about the sun-earth connecion in all sorts of areas. I’d venture to suggest there’s a heck of a lot more going climate wise than just heat (possibly drivers for tornadoes and earthquakes, for example). But that’s pure speculation without foundation at all.
Bear in mind the science has moved on considerably in recently years. There’s a large number of specialized satellites buzzing now, determined to further knowledge in this area. If you’re interested, pop over to NASA’s site and take a look.
As you may know, some use this work as a basis for predicting market movements, etc. Others use it for quite different purposes. Here’s one I turned up while searching for a link to an unembellished English translation of Tchijevsky’s original underlying work to post here. This site’s not my cup of tea at all, but feel free to make of it what you will.
Unfortunately, I failed to find what I was looking for 🙁
Leif Svalgaard (12:33:19) :
Activity on the sun is the main ingredient in his forecasts.
Except there was no solar activity during that interval…
I see. The sun was out of town then, I guess. 😉
Aelric (12:38:21) :
Surely one might offer a suggested correction without the need to make a pejorative comment?
I see you don’t know Leif Svalgaard.
Won’t be long until we are back on the global cooling scare…probably why it’s called climate change now. Either way a money making opportunity, though I think they may have missed the opportunity thanks to mother nature!
SOON THEY WILL HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POWER OF THE OCEANS and the sun (ominous voice)!
My guess is global cooling until at least 2035. Ocean cycles negative through 2030-2035, solar decreasing through that period as well. Followed by a resuming of warming…
Can anyone think of how we could do a poll whereby we could enter our predictions? Continued Warming or Cooling, peaking at 20XXad? Would be very interesting to make a graph of the current consensus of WUWT readers.