Leif Svalgaard (via Frank Hill) writes to advise me that National Solar Observatory GONG is showing a significant spot on the far side of the sun that appear to have the right latitude for SC24 in addition to being fairly large.
Here is the GONG plot, note P87.
The stereo behind shows some activity also:
Meanwhile on the earthside, it appears that two tiny SC23 specks are showing. Though, they are very hard to see in this SOHO MDI image
We’ll know soon what the spot coming around looks like and if it has the right polarity or is another one of those seemingly neutral polarity spots we’ve seen over the past few months..
Ric Werme (17:43:41) :
Thanks for the links. Most interesting.
Bill
The map for 16.5 September shows the spot clearly:
http://www.leif.org/research/1026-sequence.png
Irene explains:
The signature is back and strong in the seismic maps, since the location in the far side disk is now out of our 2x2skip and 1x3skip merge area.
Brief explanation:
We use different waves to map the central and peripheral part of the non-visible disk. The central part is calculated using waves that bounce once at the surface before arriving to the front side, and the outer part is a combination of waves that bounce either none or two times. Finally, there is an area where the signals are merged. Each of the parts has a different sensitivity function.
The duty cycle also plays a role. The signature depends on the amount of data, but also on where the gaps are located.
If this AR were close to the equator, and assuming it stays strong, the signal should continue to be strong in the farside maps all the way to the limb, but at 30 degrees latitude the front side observation “pupils” are irregular and I’m not sure of how the sensitivity will vary.
Leif Svalgaard (05:23:28) :
It’s entering the ‘Snuff Out” zone.
Same thing it did on July 22nd.
Doesn’t look any healthier to me at this point.
What else do you have that says ” aha, this time it’s different” ??
How’s your flux level from then & now?
rbateman (09:36:09) :
Same thing it did on July 22nd.
Doesn’t look any healthier to me at this point.
What else do you have that says ” aha, this time it’s different” ??
How’s your flux level from then & now?
I was comparing with 1024 [July 4th fireworks]. That one lived for a week+. If 1026 [probable NOAA number] lives that long it should make it to the front, but decaying. The flux level just before 1024 was the same as now.
Here is a comparison of 1026 East Limb (Behind) and 1024 East Limb (Ahead). http://www.leif.org/research/1024-1026.png 1026 looks a good deal better than 1024, so might live longer, that’s why “this time is different”. But we’ll soon know.
rbateman (09:36:09) :
Same thing it did on July 22nd.
Doesn’t look any healthier to me at this point.
What else do you have that says ” aha, this time it’s different” ??
How’s your flux level from then & now?
I was comparing with 1024 [July 4th fireworks]. That one lived for a week+. If 1026 [probable NOAA number] lives that long it should make it to the front, but perhaps decaying. The flux level just before 1024 was the same as now.
Here is a comparison of 1026 East Limb (Behind) and 1024 East Limb (Ahead). http://www.leif.org/research/1024-1026.png 1026 looks a good deal better than 1024, so might live longer, that’s why “this time is different”. But we’ll soon know.
MySearch4Truth (15:27:15) :
“This is slightly off topic but does anyone find it odd that we have not heard from the media about a two foot RISE IN SEA LEVEL…”
Reply:
When I followed your link it remnded me about the theory that there is more volcanic activity and tectonic plate movement at solar minimum. I also remember reading somewhere that the Mid-Atlantic Ridge is growing and tectonic movement is raising the Atlantic seabed.
Putting 2 + 2 together = 5, could a growing ridge be partial blockage the Gulfstream and be causing changes to the paths of deep undersea currents?
I’ll try to dig up some more information on what’s happening now.
Leif Svalgaard (10:09:38) :
As long as we keep in mind that STEREO B has traveled 7 degrees backwards in longitude, and that means a full 1/2 day further rotation wise, it’s going to look stronger per se being that much more around the backside.
Yes, it may make it, or it may not.
We should not be so trusting of the Sun, considering the behavior. lest it dash hopes once again.
rbateman (14:29:57) :
We should not be so trusting of the Sun, considering the behavior. lest it dash hopes once again.
Considering that 1026 has already lived longer than 1024 and is still looking better and better, let’s give him a good chance. You see, I want him to be there when I give my talk at Solar Analogs II http://www.lowell.edu/workshops/SolarAnalogsII/program.php
So I do have an ulterior motive 🙂
MySearch4Truth (19:44:24) : First, this event is being played down for some reason. We’re talking about an unprecedented (albeit temporary at this time) rise in sea level (of up to two feet – flooding and all) from Maine to Florida.
It looks like it is unusual, and ought to be looked at a bit more (especially the why and the implications) but is not all that unprecedented. See;
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090831_tides.html
Which includes:
Persistent winds and a weakened current in the Mid-Atlantic contributed to higher than normal sea levels along the Eastern Seaboard in June and July, according to a new NOAA technical report.
After observing water levels six inches to two feet higher than originally predicted, NOAA scientists began analyzing data from select tide stations and buoys from Maine to Florida and found that a weakening of the Florida Current Transport—an oceanic current that feeds into the Gulf Stream—in addition to steady and persistent Northeast winds, contributed to this anomaly.
“The ocean is dynamic and it’s not uncommon to have anomalies,” said Mike Szabados,
So an important part was wind, and it isn’t all that unusual.
Impacts of the event were amplified by the occurrence of a perigean-spring tide, the natural timing of the season and month when the moon is closest to the Earth and its gravitational pull heightens the elevation of the water. The combined effects of this tide with the sea level anomaly produced minor flooding on the coast.
And a “special” tide pitched in too.
OK, so some unusual wind and tides. Who knows what influenced the current to slow down. It would be interesting to see if it has picked up speed again as the wind and tide oddities have moved on.
Gee, wonder if there is a weatherman anywhere that might be familiar with wind, tides, and flooding that could comment on how all this works and how common it is 😎
This is about as up-to-date STEREO Behind comparisons as I can dig up:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/SC24/20090723_20090917_EUVI_195.JPG
After which, within a day, 1024 began to fade out, sending out it’s last streamers.
BTW, the Sun isn’t completely dead. There is a VERY high-latitude group with two SC24 specs in the South at 7 o’clock
rbateman (15:15:45) :
After which, within a day, 1024 began to fade out, sending out it’s last streamers.
And by then it had lived 20+days. So if 1026 does that too, we should be fine. [PS I was wrong upthread when I said 1026 had lived longer than 1024 – forgot to count the backside traverse.]. I bet $100 that 1026 makes it to the front and gets numbered.
rbateman
“This is about as up-to-date STEREO Behind comparisons as I can dig up:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/SC24/20090723_20090917_EUVI_195.JPG”
Thank you very much for sending this comparison picture!! I have been looking for a similar example myself. You have saved me a lot of time!
I know we have not detected candidates for the new cycle in the far-side seismic maps yet, but I was curious about STEREO having similar signatures to this one.
I found the farside maps for that particular period (0720 to 0729) and there is no signature of that AR in the seismic maps. Nothing strong and persistent there to be considered a candidate. This means, the photospheric manifestation of this new active region is larger/stronger. Of course, that doesn’t mean it will persist for very long, but probably longer than the other one.
You can see the series of farside maps for July 2009 here:
http://www.noao.edu/noao/staff/irenegh/farside_0907.jpg
Irene (17:05:33) :
You can see the series of farside maps for July 2009 here:
http://www.noao.edu/noao/staff/irenegh/farside_0907.jpg
Irene, you need to start the sequence when 1024 disappeared over the West limb on 2009/7/11 to catch it traversing the backside [if you can]
Ok,
Here is the full far-side passage:
http://www.noao.edu/noao/staff/irenegh/farside_AR_11024.jpg
I was concentrated in comparing the farside maps for 090723 (and couple of previous days) with the recent farside maps, since the STEREO Behind image for that day looks so similar to today’s image. (And of course being lazy and including all the 09072* images 🙂 )
No signature in the far-side maps even soon after it rotates to the far side.
Irene (17:05:33) :
Oh, I can do much better than that:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/DeepSolarMin9.htm
First image is SOHO Frontside. I call these CEIT, or Color-Composite EIT images.
Note the reddish tint to the Tiny Tim and it’s relative size.
2nd image is STEREO Behind, where our much-awaited region is spouting off.
3rd image is STEREO Ahead, where you see a Tiny Tim on the Equator.
The STEREO images are only 4.7 days rotation apart, Ahead to Behind., from limb to limb.
The only caveat with these images is they are up to 3 days behind the current date.
Can’t have everything you know.
rbateman (18:19:05) :
Oh, I can do much better than that
Robert, these are indeed very nice. I’m sure you’ll [in due time] capture 1026 in all its glory.
Leif Svalgaard (18:51:12) :
They are meant to be informative, but the credit has to go to NASA for picking the bands to get the Iron out. One needs only calibrate them with visible spots and flares. It’s the next best thing to having a SOHO MDI Ahead & Behind.
Still there: http://www.leif.org/research/1026-sequence.png
This one still have not appeared on our side. Has it fizzled out, or has it just not come around yet? When can we expect to see this one?
Jeff in Ctown (07:46:02) :
This one still have not appeared on our side. Has it fizzled out, or has it just not come around yet? When can we expect to see this one?
In two or three days
The initial timing of 1024 is different from “1026”. 1024 formed quickly at about 8 o’clock on the front side giving us its rise and fall in all its glory. “1026” was forming as it went off the front side and is still with us, but is it on the downslope?
If not it has some beef.
1026 is very weak [but still visible – sensitivity problem again]. But another one has shown up at somewhat lower latitude:
http://www.leif.org/research/1026-sequence.png
Well, it’s not a whopper (yet) and it’s not the sharpest tack to project, but it’s here.
Soho site power outage over the weekend, looks like they still haven’t updated the image from Friday the 18th. I’m impatient, I want to see the spot!!