A significant SC24 spot may be in the making

Leif Svalgaard (via Frank Hill) writes to advise me that National Solar Observatory GONG is showing a significant spot on the far side of the sun that appear to have the right latitude for SC24 in addition to being fairly large.

Here is the GONG plot, note P87.

Latest ImageLatest Image

The stereo behind shows some activity also:

http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2009/09/15/behind/euvi/195/512/20090915_025530_n7euB_195.jpg

Meanwhile on the earthside, it appears that two tiny SC23 specks are showing. Though, they are very hard to see in this SOHO MDI image

We’ll know soon what the spot coming around looks like and if it has the right polarity or is another one of those seemingly neutral polarity spots we’ve seen over the past few months..

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savethesharks

Come on, Mr. Sun. Crank it up. We are rootin’ for ya.

Nogw

Here comes the Sun….it needs some WATTS!
REPLY: No Adolfo, it doesn’t. -A

Just wonder why anyone would want the Sun to crank up. One reason you would not is to prove solar activity is the primary driver of climate.

Jason Bair

How many days out we thinking it is if it holds?

Archonix

Already seems to be fading away. Perhaps the watts effect has a dark side…

As the sun slumbers can we quantify the likely impacts?

Richard deSousa

Nah… it’s going to be a plage.

Richard deSousa

Oops! I meant plage!
Reply: That’s what you said! [Actually, I’d already fixed it]. ~dbstealey, mod.

crosspatch

Latest STEREO image shows something just around the bend.

vg

sorry to be obsessive about this but every single NASA sunspot prediction for this cycle has been way off whereas David Archibalds has been spot on lest we forget hahaha

Mark

Big deal! The odd spot means nothing. The key is what is happening to the cosmic ray levels – and they are still higher than they have been in decades!

timetochooseagain

Daddy needs a new pair of shoes…and some warm weather?
Hm, me thinks gambling on sunspots would be interesting-although tough to set up.

Richard deSousa

This is idiotic…. one spot (may be) showing up and the solar scientists go nuts! It’ll take more than one spot a month to revive the sun.

MySearch4Truth

This is slightly off topic but does anyone find it odd that we have not heard from the media about a two foot RISE IN SEA LEVEL along the East coast this Summer caused by the Gulf Stream shutting down?
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/EastCoastSeaLevelAnomaly_2009.pdf
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/090910-sea-levels-rise.html
http://www.climate.org/PDF/clim_change_scenario.pdf

Ray

With every Watts there has to be an equal but opposite anti-Watts. With the Watts-Effect there has to be an Anti-Watts-Effect. And there we have it. It will soon fade away quickly because it has been blogged about right here.

Ray

If it’s that big, how come it does not really show on the holographic image?
http://spaceweather.com/images2009/11sep09/midi_farside_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=utbtc42kem5johq9bdj9lbc0e0
Is this holographic method not any good?

SteveSadlov

Good, every little bit helps. One spot = n people saved from starvation.

geoff pohanka (14:37:49) :
Just wonder why anyone would want the Sun to crank up. One reason you would not is to prove solar activity is the primary driver of climate.

It is clear now that next few sun cycles will be weak. We do not need Maunder minimum to show they were wrong. Return to climate of 70ties will suffice.. but, who knows, Sun used to be a cruel god to non-believers…

Olimpus Mons

I know something is around the corner. Everytime there’s a big and strong solarspot, I get an increase in traffic acidents on my way home! and it was madning today! 🙂
PS: Hey! theories are for free these days! just a small untested theory I have!

According to our system, the spot is expected to appear on the front side on Sep. 20. STEREO should have improving views as it approaches.

Adam from Kansas

Other than the GONG map what makes this look more promising than the excitement spaceweather.com exhibited when they noticed sizable active areas on stereo behind before (like months or years ago)?
Try putting Soho on the opposite side of the sun and put GONG and stereo behind where Soho is now and see if you get something that looks like a sunspot over the spotless streaks as of recent.

Ray (15:39:43) :
If it’s that big, how come it does not really show on the holographic image?
Because that image is five days old.
————
On the website: http://vso.tuc.noao.edu/GONG/farside/
if you click on the ‘ascii file’ link below the gray map you get more info:
C. Long. Latitude Phase-shift Prob. Date-of-return Front-side-number
216.000000 -32.683640 -0.158535 87 20090920

John F. Hultquist

Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG+).
http://www.cora.nwra.com/~dbraun/farside-gong/

John M

Hmmm…
Large sunspot emerging, unprecedented weather on Saturn.
link
What else could it be?

Robert Wood

The Sun hs got its hat on
Hip-hip, hip-hip hooray
The Sun has got its hat on and it’s coming out to play
(Bonzo Dog Doodah Band, circa a long time ago)

Ray:
It does not show up on the MDI far-side maps as mirrored by spaceweather.com for two reasons:
1) That map is old, it’s from Sept. 11
2) While GONG uses the same holographic method as SOHO/MDI, we have an improved system that does a better job of removing noise, and that uses signal persistence to identify potential active regions. Our maps are also calibrated, and can be found at our beta website:
http://vso.tuc.noao.edu/GONG/farside/
Information on how we do the calibration is at this URL:
http://www.noao.edu/noao/staff/irenegh/FarSide/NewWebSite/calib_info.html
Note that we also supply a small ascii (text) file that contains the latitude, longitude, phase shift, existence probability, and expected date of arrival on the front side as well.

Steven Hill

Come on sun, just in time for Cap and Tax
Hope and Change 2009! No ice, boiling oceans, massive hurricanes, earthquakes, dead Polar Bears.
And most of all, total Government control of all the people…hum, just like having a dictator or king in power.

rbateman

Don’t count your spots before they have arrived.
The hoped-for spot was a plage on the 6th, turned into a spot on the 7th, started blowing its top on the 9th, rotated off the Ahead on the 11th, and is about a day’s rotation behind the 1024 region we had in early July.
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/DeepSolarMin9.htm
According to Joe Gurman at NASA, there is only enough bandwidth to get a full stream of one bandpass, and 195 is it..
The EUVI 195’s are not the whole story, sorry to say, and they can mislead.
Put them all together, 171, 195 and 284 and you have a very good indication of exactly what is going on up there.
I can’t show you that it is currently fading, but 3 days after it hits, if it is faded, I can show you the progression.
Oh well.

Nogw

John M (16:17:08) :
Hmmm…
Large sunspot emerging, unprecedented weather on Saturn.
link
What else could it be?

“The Electric Universe”, or in other words, just WATTS again!

This is GREAT!! One Spot.
Or it could be desperation.

rbateman

Meanwhile on the earthside, it appears that two tiny SC23 specks are showing. Though, they are very hard to see in this SOHO MDI image
Pores, 2- 2.7 x10E6 LOS area.
Maybe even blinkers.

George E. Smith

So I’ll bite; who the blazes is holding up a big mirror on the backside of the sun, so we can see spots over there.
I suppose we can put a planet X satellite out there on the opposite side of the orbit; but since the orbit is elliptical, then there really isn’t any opposite side, so there must be a point about half way round the orbit to put a satellite so it wanders back and forth behind the sun, but mostly is visible from earth unless it is too close to the sun.
Since the sun subtends about 1/2 degree at the earth, then it would block about a one degree section of orbit on the opposite side, and if it goes 360 degrees in about 365 days, then roughly we go about a degree around the sun every day, but that pesky planet X is going with us, and hiding; so all you orbital mechanicists, about how many days on average is planet X hidden from us so we can’t see spots on the sun’s backside.
So maybe we got clever and put a pair of them “Dos Equis” over there, far enough from the blind spot to always be visible, and give us a nice stereo view of the sun’s backside; and any pimples that are on it.
izzat about how this thing works ?
George

Uccle [Belgium] saw one of the little SC23 specks:
http://sidc.oma.be/images/last_ORBdrawing.jpg
REPLY: What the world needs, is a better solar specktrometer. – Anthony

wws

sun spots hot,
sun spots cold,
sun’s image in the dock
five days old.
Some like them hot,
some like them cold,
some like them in the dock
five days old.

Cathy

Oh, man . . . I don’t want to come off as little miss moderator of public virtue here . . . . but there’s a comment above that uses “Jesus Christ” as an exclamatory remark.
Trust me. In my private life I use words that I’d not be proud to have aired publicly , but it just seems that this may have slipped past the moderator and should have been ‘snipped’ for the sake of keeping Anthony’s blog classy.
I don’t intend this as a criticism of the commenter who used it. Just a little jarring in this forum.
Reply: You’re right. Objectionable words deleted. ~dbstealey, moderator
REPLY: Clarification, the words “Jesus Christ” are by no means objectionable, the use of those words in that context however, was. – Anthony

Nogw (17:25:58) :
“What else could it be?”
“The Electric Universe”, or in other words, just WATTS again!

Let’s try to keep the pseudo-science to a minimum…

Gary Hladik

geoff pohanka (14:37:49) : “Just wonder why anyone would want the Sun to crank up. One reason you would not is to prove solar activity is the primary driver of climate.”
Or disprove it. 🙂 Or, more accurately, provide additional evidence pro or con. I don’t think one solar cycle is going to “prove” or “disprove” anything.

Mike McMillan

Backside doesn’t count. That’s what we tennis fans call moving the goalposts.
Knowing that a spot is coming around, might that inspire observers to give it a number, even if were too weak to otherwise notice, observational bias and all that?
.
Leif Svalgaard (17:55:04) :
. . . Let’s try to keep the pseudo-science to a minimum…

Too late, Leif. You’re describing the whole of AGW. 🙂

Mark (15:11:36) :
Big deal! The odd spot means nothing. The key is what is happening to the cosmic ray levels – and they are still higher than they have been in decades!
No, they are where they always are at solar minimum. Rock steady, since measurements began in 1952.
E.g.
http://www.leif.org/research/Kiel-Cosmic-Rays.png
http://www.leif.org/research/CosmicRayFlux-Moscow.png
http://www.leif.org/research/thule-cosmic-rays.png
http://www.puk.ac.za/fakulteite/natuur/nm_data/data/nmd_e.html
You have to look at many stations. Just looking at one is like trying to equate global temperature with the temperature in New Hampshire [a la Archibald].

Ron de Haan

So, does this mean we have the chance to see a cycle 24 spot chasing a cycle 23 spot
at the same side of the sun tomorrow?

svirhedrigs

Big deal! The odd spot means nothing. The key is what is happening to the cosmic ray levels – and they are still higher than they have been in decades!
*BLINK* Aha! That’s it!
“Hi, we’re from the government, and we’re here to help. We regret the necessity, but Congress has been forced by the urgent crisis to impose a ten percent surtax on your income to combat the dangers of elevated cosmic ray levels, which can cause cancer, sterility, and psoriasis. Children are particularly at risk. Don’t worry, this is only a temporary measure — it’s only for the duration of the emergency. Remember, we’re not just doing this for you, we’re doing it for the children!”

savethesharks

geoff pohanka (14:37:49) : Just wonder why anyone would want the Sun to crank up. One reason you would not is to prove solar activity is the primary driver of climate
You should not read into what I am saying, other than I wanna see some spots.
Guess this historic minimum we seem to be sliding into has me a little worried about the unknown.
I like routine…so the 11 year cycles work well for me.
And while I will leave to the experts as to how much and/or how little Mr. Sun’s variations affect the climate, my wishful thinking at this point is to see some activity.
We are in interesting times, for one finite generation to witness such events for the first time in modern times, where sun is being watched like a patient in a hospital with 1000 supercomputers and 1000 doctors evaluating him [Dr. Svaalgard being one of them].
We live in historic times. Somebody please fund these scientists! Money well spent [except for Michael Mann….toss him and his research].
Politicians: Stop worrying about healthcare and the stock market and pay attention to the natural world that gives you life in the first place!!
Where we go from here…who is to say??
It would be nice to see some spots, thats all.
Biggest worry is a recurrence of 1859…which would knock modern civilization back many, many years [and no one is paying attention to this worse-case REAL and unpredictable scenario].
Second biggest worry is…IF there is a correlation between Dalton and Maunder-type events….to…..
Well…I’m not going to say it for risk of being attacked. LOL
I just want some spots.
Come on Mr. Sun, wake up [but not too much].
We’re rootin’ for ya.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

savethesharks

And I misspelled your name again. Sorry about that, Leif.
Double a in the second a. Not sure why I have trouble spelling your first and last name. Arggghhh.
Speling is nott my best skil

savethesharks (19:40:01) :
And I misspelled your name again. Sorry about that, Leif.
For that reason, when I reserve a table in a restaurant I use the name ‘Joe King’. And I’m not joking.
And there is a Joe King in my life. See paragraph [26] of http://www.leif.org/research/The%20IDV%20index%20-%20its%20derivation%20and%20use.pdf 🙂

red432

The ice age is coming, the sun is zooming in /
Engines stop running and the wheat is growing thin /
A nuclear error, but I have no fear /
London is drowning-and I live by the river
— the Clash “London Calling”/

rbateman

Leif Svalgaard (18:58:56) :
Mark did not exaggerate. The cosmic rays for all stations are at or above the levels of 22 years, i.e. – decades. And yet, the Sun continues in it’s lack of activity.
We are about to go 72 days between significant spots if this rebirth of 1024 holds.
How many nickels have to be pumped into the slot machine for the gambler to realize that they are being taken?

F. Ross

“One swallow does not a summer make”
…so lets hear it for the yet to be named Eddy Minimum.

Fluffy Clouds (Tim L)

wow, we have to watch the spots on the back side now? count them too you do?
huh???? but i thought “they say” It no matters what the sun do,,,,,, it is CO2 that counts!!!!!
ah ha………….
poem land we go, to visit the word-lings in the land of possibles .

John F. Hultquist

Leif Svalgaard (19:51:34) :
savethesharks (19:40:01) :
Years ago my father’s secretary saved all the misspellings of his name and pasted them onto a new waste-basket. The strangest one was “Piecrust.” My family has developed a high tolerance for such things.
Meanwhile, thanks to WUWT we have “sort of” a front row seat to watch the Sun, the ice, ENSO, PDO, SST and a lot of other things in near real time. What a hoot! Thanks to all of you, especially Anthony.

Vinny

So now we are relegated to start considering spots on the far side of the Sun if we can’t get any that actually would have an affect on the Earth facing us. So where does it end?? I’m sure Galileo saw those spots in his day. Let’s count everything and go to a new topic.