Leif Svalgaard (via Frank Hill) writes to advise me that National Solar Observatory GONG is showing a significant spot on the far side of the sun that appear to have the right latitude for SC24 in addition to being fairly large.
Here is the GONG plot, note P87.
The stereo behind shows some activity also:
Meanwhile on the earthside, it appears that two tiny SC23 specks are showing. Though, they are very hard to see in this SOHO MDI image
We’ll know soon what the spot coming around looks like and if it has the right polarity or is another one of those seemingly neutral polarity spots we’ve seen over the past few months..
“savethesharks (22:20:53) :
That being said….I share your sentiments…and there is the real side of me that wishes for a LIA or even an IA.
Brrrrrr.”
Yes, I don’t know what it is about a scientific nature: BRING ON THE ICE AGE!!! And why can’t we have a few of those great big lightning storms like they have on Saturn? We’d cope. We’re good at that sort of thing.
(Well, if you grew up in a boring little Sussex coastal town in the 1970s, you’d think like that too. “Mum, do we ever get tornados in Sussex?” “Oh, you wouldn’t like that darling. It wouldn’t be very nice at all..” “Waterspouts?” “Earthquakes?” “Asteroids?” Nope. Just rain with occasional sunny intervals. And the odd bit of trouble with the neighbours)
Bill P (10:08:38) :
I’m assuming this “ear to the sun” technology is the same to which you refer?
It is, and it isn’t. The farside look is a separate application of helioseismology.
The farside maps are still experimental and the technique will improve with SDO [because the data will]. Here is a collage of last several days maps [every 12 hours]. The long, skinny box shows that the region we are excited about has been a feature for a while, waxing and waning and shifting around a bit, but basically there: http://www.leif.org/research/1026-sequence.png
some of the differences are due to varying ‘duty cycle’ of the GONG network [how much data is collected – clouds are sometimes a problem 🙂 ], and the very clean signature that heads this article had the very best duty cycle [99% and 100%].
Leif Svalgaard (08:49:44) :
…. We are basically observing [or deducing] the variation of the speed of sound inside the Sun, and can thus tell if there is something [like a spot] changing it.
My brain just exploded (again). That’s bloody amazing! I love this blog. :o)
Just wanted to point out that our current far-side method results in a reduction of the signal as the active region moves across the analysis area, so the signature gets stronger and weaker at times. This does not necessarily mean that the sunspot is actually changing (although, of course, it may be). We have a new method in the works that will reduce this effect.
Leif Svalgaard (10:59:32) :
The long, skinny box shows that the region we are excited about has been a feature for a while, waxing and waning and shifting around a bit, but basically there: http://www.leif.org/research/1026-sequence.png
The map for 16 September does not show the spot:
http://www.leif.org/research/1026-sequence.png
Hi,
Just a quick comment to clarify that the original idea to map active regions at the non-visible disk of the Sun by analyzing waves observed in the front side was developed by C. Lindsey and D. Braun. Lately we have been working on improving the signal to noise and made the maps more reliable. Hence this new “calibrated” product.
Note: The seismic signature of the active region as it moves across the far side varies, not only because the active region changes, but because the method is more sensitive to certain locations than others. So we expect to see the signature fading away and sometimes coming back even if the active region is very stable.
Leif Svalgaard (16:45:31) :
The map for 16 September does not show the spot
But it is still going strong on STEREO B images. And Frank et al. might have already posted the explanation for the disappearance: that the signal gets weaker closer to the limb.
Leif Svalgaard (17:00:01) :
It looks to be still there on EUVI 195, but that is not the only band for STEREO. It just happens to be the one they picked for thier investigative purposes.
You are looking at 1/3 of the total picture.
Bill P (08:24:07) :
Hmm, http://soi.stanford.edu/press/ssu03-00/backside.html should be the place to start, but a link there to lindsey.pdf is broken.
This link is semi-useful
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/Sun_Far_Side_000309.html
rbateman (17:26:45) :
You are looking at 1/3 of the total picture
Or perhaps on 1/1000,000 of the total picture…
The Sun shines in very many wavelength bands [sorta infinitely many], but a big spot is visible in them all, so 1/2, 1/3 of 1/1000,000 makes little difference.
Leif Svalgaard (18:38:12) :
Or perhaps you missed the point: There are 3 Fe bands to STEREO, not 1,000,000.
And the range is 17 to 30 nm.
E.M.Smith (00:22:16) :
—————————
(part of my original post)
MySearch4Truth (15:27:15) :[…]a two foot RISE IN SEA LEVEL along the East coast this Summer caused by the Gulf Stream shutting down?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/090910-sea-levels-rise.html
(your reply)
From that Nat.Geo. link they said fall wind patterns had arrived a few weeks early too…
Interesting, measurable, and quantifiable evidence for an early fall pattern…
(my reply)
First, this event is being played down for some reason. We’re talking about an unprecedented (albeit temporary at this time) rise in sea level (of up to two feet – flooding and all) from Maine to Florida. There were no storms or even high pressure systems to blame. Wind is a flimsy excuse – it was due to a partial shutdown of the Florida current (FC) which is a major contributor to the Gulf Stream. If we want to ‘discover’ things we’ve got to be able to see the forest through the trees. This event implies that ‘The Pentagon’s Report on Abrupt Climate Change’ may have been spot on.
Delving into this would be a great story and a great contribution to this debate. Two feet of sea level rise and scientific evidence it was not due to man-made global warming. Seems like the perfect topic here. I’m baffled.
rbateman (19:44:17) :
Or perhaps you missed the point: There are 3 Fe bands to STEREO, not 1,000,000. And the range is 17 to 30 nm.
My point is that it doesn’t matter how many bands there are; you will see a strong active region in any ONE of them, or two, or three, or whatever many. So, we are not seeing only 1/3 of the story. The other bands tell the same story.
The great surface currents of the oceans are chiefly driven by the actions of the winds.
Seasonal and unseasonal changes in wind strength alter both current flow and sea level, and temporary variations in wind patterns occur from time to time for reasons we do not completely understand.
This was no major event, just a minor fluctuation and it has probably happened many times before, yet it is so trivial nobody made anything of it back then.
It is just weather.
It is only today with 24 hour news ever eager to to report anything and everything that it achieves some kind of fleeting prominence it does not deserve. And credulous folk think they see some kind of pattern in random variation which does not exist.
Kindest Regards
MySearch4Truth (19:44:24) :
Put the link in the Tips and Notes thread , Top bar right. I agree it sounds interesting for the blog.
I think there was also a scare that if the gulf stream stops the new ice age begins for europe, a while ago , 2005
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn8398-failing-ocean-current-raises-fears-of-mini-ice-age.html
“The ocean current that gives western Europe its relatively balmy climate is stuttering, raising fears that it might fail entirely and plunge the continent into a mini ice age.”
Les Francis (05:37:44) : “Al Gore … He has recently been in Australia signing up specialised “messengers” to be indoctrinated in the spiel…”
Couple of people attending one of these “meetings” in Melbourne remarked how strongly it reminded them of a Billy Graham crusade…
MikeH (14:59:21) : “My brain just exploded (again). That’s bloody amazing! I love this blog.”
Right with you there, Mike!
a jones (20:22:23) :
(his response to me)
The great surface currents of the oceans are chiefly driven by the actions of the winds.
Seasonal and unseasonal changes in wind strength alter both current flow and sea level, and temporary variations in wind patterns occur from time to time for reasons we do not completely understand.
This was no major event, just a minor fluctuation and it has probably happened many times before, yet it is so trivial nobody made anything of it back then.
It is just weather.
It is only today with 24 hour news ever eager to to report anything and everything that it achieves some kind of fleeting prominence it does not deserve. And credulous folk think they see some kind of pattern in random variation which does not exist.
Kindest Regards
(my response)
How can you say that when I have provided scientific evidence from NOAA of all places suggesting otherwise? Not to mention the Pentagon report on abrupt climate change and the (only media story) article by National Geographic. To the contrary, this very compelling and unbelievable story has been suppressed, not sensationalized as your knee-jerk response would imply. Is there ever cause for alarm and concern in your line of thinking? No, you are patently wrong here as the event was unprecedented and there is no Maine to Florida occurrence of any such event on record. You have your eyes wide shut.
This was minor NOTHING but a major global event which has never been experienced and is very possibly an indication of the Gulf Stream shutdown as predicted by the Pentagon Report:
http://www.climate.org/PDF/clim_change_scenario.pdf
If you want to blow me off, bring something better than that.
Mysearch4. The link you post is typically not what you say; it is a hypothetical scenario not a prediction. I would like to see your proof that any event seen recently has never been seen before (patent nonsense) or in the incredible event that you can actually provide backup, proof that this was in any way caused by man made CO2. I won’t hold my breath.
masonmart (23:26:51) :
(you said)
Mysearch4. The link you post is typically not what you say; it is a hypothetical scenario not a prediction. I would like to see your proof that any event seen recently has never been seen before (patent nonsense) or in the incredible event that you can actually provide backup, proof that this was in any way caused by man made CO2. I won’t hold my breath.
(I said)
If you think I am pro AGW, you’re nuts. I can bet I have been fighting this fraud longer and better than most people here. So what are you fighting?
read this for clarification:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/EastCoastSeaLevelAnomaly_2009.pdf
This forum is not a good one to vet issues. The only responses I have received are from people mistaking me for the opposition when this is not the case. From experience I see this as a rather disturbing majority related to the issues at hand. People are so politically charged they lose sight of the fundamentals. We are searching for truth and promoting discovery, not hunting down Nazi’s and arguing every point which may not fit into our (think about it) narrow perception of what is going on.
Don’t hold your breath on me proving man-made global warming because it is the greatest fraud in history. I won’t hold my breath for you to see real trends emerging that are related to a potentially abrupt shift in climate that is natural. You can just sit there thinking GWers are insane and everything is going to be A-OK.
During June and July there was a rise in sea level ranging from .6 to 2 feet from Maine to Florida… This event is unprecedented and significant because it was due mainly to the Florida Current losing steam… the Florida Current feed the Gulf Stream.
This is a National Security issue which is why we haven’t heard about it….
I at least thought we would here.
masonmart (23:26:51) :
(you said)
Mysearch4. The link you post is typically not what you say; it is a hypothetical scenario not a prediction. I would like to see your proof that any event seen recently has never been seen before (patent nonsense) or in the incredible event that you can actually provide backup, proof that this was in any way caused by man made CO2. I won’t hold my breath.
(I said)
I have said my peace. I have fought in opposition to the fraud of AGW long enough to not have to explain myself to people that don’t take the time to figure it out. The sea level rising two feet along the Eastern Seaboard during June and July with no precedent serves the agenda of skeptics. With such a measurable and unexplainable event, why aren’t the AGW crowd and the media jumping on it? That is the question. I know why. Do you?
anna v (21:00:18) :
This is interesting. There were reports earlier this year of a 1 foot rise in the water off Eureka, Ca. I had not heard of the 2005 scare.
this region [NOAA 1026?] seems to be a return [?] of 1024, sitting at the same ‘active longitude’. STEREO B has it on the disk now. Looks healthy: http://www.leif.org/research/1026.png
The images are ~1day apart
MySearch4Truth (22:46:04) :
> If you want to blow me off, bring something better than that.
Someone who hasn’t figured out the “Tips & Notes to WUWT” deserves to be blown off. I confess I haven’t followed your distraction, so if the link refer to sunspots on the backside of the Sun affecting the Gulf Stream, feel free to blow me off here. Otherwise, make it a “Tip and Note,” please.
My search4, two things. I speak English so understanding you is difficult. Secondly the event wasn’t unprecendented nor caused by any shift in climate. Nor is it National security or even laughable conspiracy theory. It was caused by a combination of three natural events one a perigean spring tide, the second a strong NE wind and thirdly a perfectly natural change in current. Sea levels 1.6 to 2 feet above predicted are not unique events.