Leif Svalgaard (via Frank Hill) writes to advise me that National Solar Observatory GONG is showing a significant spot on the far side of the sun that appear to have the right latitude for SC24 in addition to being fairly large.
Here is the GONG plot, note P87.
The stereo behind shows some activity also:
Meanwhile on the earthside, it appears that two tiny SC23 specks are showing. Though, they are very hard to see in this SOHO MDI image
We’ll know soon what the spot coming around looks like and if it has the right polarity or is another one of those seemingly neutral polarity spots we’ve seen over the past few months..
Mark (15:11:36) :
“Big deal! The odd spot means nothing. The key is what is happening to the cosmic ray levels – and they are still higher than they have been in decades!”
Leif Svalgaard (18:58:56) :No, they are where they always are at solar minimum. Rock steady, since measurements began in 1952.
“Rock steady” only if these extraordinary peaks decrease over the next couple of years.
Time will tell…
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
RE: geoff pohanka (14:37:49) :
“Just wonder why anyone would want the Sun to crank up. One reason you would not is to prove solar activity is the primary driver of climate.”
I agree completely. As much as I prefer warmer weather, I would rather the sun go into a protracted period of inactivity and the earth go into a protracted period of cooling, to shut down the AGW industry before it causes any further damage to the global economy. Not to mention that I’d like nothing more than to see Al Gore’s $100M investment in carbon offsets tank.
Leif and Chris
You two seem to be talking past each other. Seems to me – looking at the charts – that the counts go up and down. They have been as high in the past as they are now. So Chris, why do you call the current count “extraordinary”? We all need to be as simple and direct as possible.
Daryl M (21:49:34) :
I’ll drink to that!
btw…what’s Gore up to these days? He’s as quiet as the Sun, I tell you.
Daryl M (21:49:34) :
RE: geoff pohanka (14:37:49) :
“Just wonder why anyone would want the Sun to crank up. One reason you would not is to prove solar activity is the primary driver of climate.”
I agree completely. As much as I prefer warmer weather, I would rather the sun go into a protracted period of inactivity and the earth go into a protracted period of cooling, to shut down the AGW industry before it causes any further damage to the global economy. Not to mention that I’d like nothing more than to see Al Gore’s $100M investment in carbon offsets tank.”
Careful here. Hey, we all would like some poetic justice on the Great Scam.
However…couple points:
ONE: If the global cooling occurs irrespective of AGW, mark my words that they will say that the cooling is masking AGW.
TWO: You really don’t want a little ice age. Crops fail. Plagues thrive. one third of the population perished in Europe during the LIA.
Be careful what you ask for.
There is a reason they call climate optimums “optimum” and there is a reason the “dark ages” are labeled dark.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
That being said….I share your sentiments…and there is the real side of me that wishes for a LIA or even an IA.
Brrrrrr.
John F. Hultquist (22:04:11) :”So Chris, why do you call the current count “extraordinary”?”
“Abnormally high” is probably the more accurate term.
They will only be extraordinary if they continue and do not decrease over the next couple years….as I said in my previous post.
What I was trying to say is to take into account of the current historic once-in-a-lifetime solar minimum, which none of us have ever personally witnessed, and the fact that cosmic ray increase anti-correlation has been measured but since the 1950s.
We live in extraordinary times
Hmmm… and what if it’s NOT a cycle 24 spot? I’ve gotten the sense that Lief has been playing around with that possibility earlier… that Cycle 24 is already over…
electronic noise
savethesharks (22:19:34) : There is a reason they call climate optimums “optimum” and there is a reason the “dark ages” are labeled dark.
Um, I think there was ONE “dark ages” and most of the cold times are called “pessimums”… Oh, and I think the “dark ages” have an alternative name of “Migration Era Pessimum”.
You don’t want to deal with a pessimum. It aint pretty.
MySearch4Truth (15:27:15) :[…]a two foot RISE IN SEA LEVEL along the East coast this Summer caused by the Gulf Stream shutting down?
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/09/090910-sea-levels-rise.html
From that Nat.Geo. link they said fall wind patterns had arrived a few weeks early too…
Interesting, measurable, and quantifiable evidence for an early fall pattern…
REPLY: What the world needs, is a better solar specktrometer. – Anthony
Groans…have you been at the sauce again Anthony? (Just speckulating, naturally.)
Cheers,
Mark.
About the gulf stream weakening (I fear we’re in for a terrible winter in Norway…): Some weeks ago, there were some SST images here showing how the more eastward track of hurricanes cooled down the area of ocean where the gulf stream runs. Could this be the reason for the cooling/slowdown? Just speculating…
Since the next sunspot is significant enough to anticipate rotating into view soon, then this is probably the Solar Cycle 24 maximum that we will be observing.
leif’s 500fps electron microscope hovering inches above the suns surface is on a mission to detect sunspots at the atomic scale in 2009. Then he can add them to his chart and get the SS smoothed curve minimum in august 2008 like he predicted.
But recently I noticed the TSI and F10.7 in his charts hit minimum around 1 year before smoothed SS minimum in his chart, which is now at least the 4th quarter of 2009. New predictions leif?
Good to see another spot trying to show it’s face. While I would lke to see some cooler climate to stop AGW madness, I fear that the sun wll produce a massive CME or super-flare durng this quet spell. The sun’s engine is obviously still running, but perhaps the cooling system has gone to sleep.
Waiter (to Lief): Are you Joe King?
Lief: Do I look like I’m joking!
Sorry!
From the National Geographic link: “Why did the Gulf Stream slow down? Why did the fall wind pattern appear earlier?” NOAA’s Edwing said. “We don’t have those answers.”
Gosh, but I thought, “NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.”
Someone really ought to tell NOAA’s public relations department that a simple “NOAA strives to understand and predict …” would go a long way toward eliminating some seriously grating hubris at the end of all their press releases.
What a grand surprise, a cycle 24 spot!
In the next few years, we may get more.
savethesharks (22:29:00) :
They will only be extraordinary if they continue and do not decrease over the next couple years….as I said in my previous post.
For reasons that are understood, cosmic ray maxima [at solar minima] alternate a bit in height [and shape]. The maximum in 2009 is at the same height as those in 1987 and 1965, and the maximum in 1996 was at the same height as those in 1976 and 1954. This second series being a tad smaller than the first. All of this is well understood. As to whether the cosmic ray intensity will continue to rise, there are two indications that it will not:
(1) The GCR max at 6-12 months after solar minimum [determined by the size of the heliosphere]
(2) The neutron monitors http://www.leif.org/research/Neutron-Monitors-Real-Time.htm and even Oulu show that the rising trend has stopped and even reversed around May, 2009
So, the GCR intensity is at the expected level for an Odd-Even transition and is not abnormal or extraordinary. This is no mystery as you cannot have less solar activity than no solar activity.
In discussing GCRs and solar modulation, there are two other factors that ordinarily are taken to be constant:
(A) the intrinsic variation of GCR outside the solar solar system
(B) the strength of the Earth’s magnetic field
They are, in fact, not really constant. (A) seems to be decreasing and (B) is also decreasing meaning increasing CR intensity at the stations. These two variations may for the time being nearly cancel out [because we observe little change], but the cancelling will be somewhat different for different stations [as is also observed]. The net result is that the CR level seems to be rather constant at every minimum. This will, presumably, not last indefinitely. So, you see, the more we know about a phenomenon, the more questions can be raised.
meemoe_uk (02:44:01) :
But recently I noticed the TSI and F10.7 in his charts hit minimum around 1 year before smoothed SS minimum in his chart, which is now at least the 4th quarter of 2009. New predictions leif?
Cutting through your insinuations, the smoothed SSN is a poor measure of minimum when two cycles on either side are of different size. And the dashed line is not the smoothed SSN as it does not take into account the next 6 months. The minimum is already behind us and the SSN is expected to rise [not much nor fast, as SC24 will be small]. As you can see here http://www.leif.org/research/Overlapping-Cycles.png the smoothed minimum comes before the cross-over point between old and new cycles.
I don’t think a new prediction is in the cards, as the prediction is based of the polar fields since 2003 and they have already made their contribution to the dynamo, so their ‘spots’ are already in the pipeline.
He’s not quiet at all. He’s gearing up for an assault – at Copenhagen.
He has recently been in Australia signing up specialised “messengers” to be indoctrinated in the spiel. These messengers are then to be sent out to give lectures and provide PR spin and flack to the media or anybody who want’s to hear it. These “messengers” also specialise in going to schools etc to indoctrinate the kids and show that fabulous peace of Nobel winning/ Oscar winning puff peacery.
Any wonder that these apprentice “messengers” seem to be Flacks, teachers and so such marketing people. Al’s Apostles.
Note – the following is all with tongue-in-cheek. I resemble some of the people described below.
Gee, this is kinda neat – as the SC23/SC24 minimum overstayed its welcome, people here got more and more excited about the occasional sunspot – is it SC23? SC24? Oh boy – SC24 is finally here. That morphed into great excitement over any little Tiny-Tim/sunspeck/pore until people finally left the daily SS checks to the truly dedicated (and the rest of use started agonizing over each day’s JAXA update).
Now sun spots are so rare we’re excited about one we can’t see for four more days, assuming it lasts that long, of course. What’s next? Perhaps someone can write a model to “project” when future sunspots will appear and we can get all excited over its failings.
I sure hope SC24 gets its act together soon – then we can start agonizing over the contrast and temperature of penumbra and umbra as the spots fade into Lingingston/Penn invisibility.
Leif Svalgaard (05:32:17) :
The minimum is already behind us and the SSN is expected to rise
I wouldn’t be so confident….we are in waters that you have never transversed. You have stated the minimum was Aug 2008?