Large eruption at Russian volcano Shiveluch

It appears that a major eruption is underway at the Shiveluch volcano in the Kamchatka peninsula. Here is the location from Google Earth:

Shiveluch_volcano1

click for larger image

Here is a recent photo (August 27th)  showing it building a lava dome in the crater. There is speculation on some blogs that the dome has collapsed and has been blown out.

Here is part of the KVERT release:

Strong explosive eruption of Sheveluch volcano with ash explosions >10 km (>32,800 ft) ASL probably continues. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft.

Shiveluch_082709

Additional photos are available here at the Kamchatka Volcanoes Emergency Response Team (KVERT) website.

From the excellent Volcansim Blog

Reports from Russia indicate that a large eruption of Shiveluch began yesterday. A bulletin from the Kamchatka Volcanoes Emergency Response Team (KVERT), issued at 22:35 UTC on 10 September warns that ‘Ash explosions > 10 km (>32,800 ft) ASL from the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft’. According to the bulletin, ’strong explosions’ occurred between around 14:19 and 14:55 UTC on 10 September, with seismic data indicating ash plumes reaching 15000 metres above sea level; if ash plumes are indeed reaching 10-15 km altitude, then this is a sizeable event. The bulletin reports that according to seismic data ‘10 volcanic events (ash explosions and hot avalanches or pyroclastic flows) occurred at the lava dome from 16:33 till 20:25 UTC on September 10′. Whether the activity is still continuing is not clear, and there are no visual or satellite images of this event because of cloud cover.

Tokyo VAAC issued a volcanic ash advisory at 04:40 UTC today reporting emissions at FL210 (21000 feet / 6400 metres) at 02:16 UTC, but giving no subsequent eruption cloud observations. No further advisories have been issued, so perhaps things have calmed down again at Shiveluch.

The Russian press gives no additional information on this eruption, but reports that KVERT volcanologists have said that there is no danger to local inhabitants from this burst of activity.

More info:

KVERT: information releases – current activity summary for Kamchatka volcanoes

Kamchatkan Volcanic Eruption Response Team – KVERT information page from the AVO

h/t to Ron de Haan

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72 thoughts on “Large eruption at Russian volcano Shiveluch

  1. Shiveluch will send an ash plume across the US to Japan flight tracks, which run along the Aleutians and south off Kamchatka. Flight altitudes are usually well above the reported 21000 ft , up in the upper 30 to 40 thousand ft range. Eastbound flights take a far more southerly route to take advantage of tailwinds.

  2. That volcano has been threatening to erupt for weeks. More cool weather for the northern hemisphere this winter.

  3. related post, see:
    http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/major_eruptions_continue_at_mt_redoubt1/
    Joe D’Aleo over at ICECAP makes the observation that high latitude eruptions correlate with high latitude winter blocking patterns = cold winter in Lakes / East. The post above relates to Mt Redoubt, in Alaska, which erupted earlier this year. Couple this with a fading El nino (see my post on el nino & what Joe Bastardi at Accuwx thinks is coming ) + stong analogs to 1976-77 winter & we may have the makings of a memorable winter back east.
    OT – currently 47 deg & raining at my house just outside Denver – 1st fire in the fireplace for the season going!

  4. This is very bad news, now the Manniacs will claim the cooling in the next decade is due to this volcano; they will use the temperature drop to refine their calculations and promise us 15 degrees of heat if we don’t hand over all our money.

  5. It is what it is. Can anyone quantify the likely impact this specific event will cause on climate/weather. This isn’t the only active volcano in the northern hemisphere and certainly not a record breaker in size and volume of emissions. However, there will be likely impacts – how much??

  6. I find this mildly amusing:

    According to an interpretation of seismic signals, ash plumes rose up to >15,000 m (> 49,200 ft) ASL.
    Next seismic signals detected a movement (during 8 minutes) of pyroclastic flows from the lava dome of the volcano at 15:57 UTC on September 10. Ash plumes from pyroclastic flows rose up to ~10,000 m (~32,800 ft)ASL (according to seismic signals).

    Genius. Who would have thought to use a seismograph to measure ash plume altitude!

  7. Jeff L., as you probably already know that Denver weather this time of year starts to change very quickly! I was stationed there in “71”. On Sept. 15 we had 15 inches of snow in Denver and 2 feet in the Mountains. Everything from grass to broadleaf trees and flowers were still around. In three days, it was all gone in Denver but the place looked like high wind damage all over because everything was still green…Tree limbs broken all over the place!

  8. We were stationed at Fitzsimons Hopsital that year. I’ll never forget the sound of those tree limbs cracking and crashing throughout the night.
    The hail storms were also impressive.

  9. Cathy:
    We were stationed at Fitzsimons Hopsital that year. I’ll never forget the sound of those tree limbs cracking and crashing throughout the night.
    The hail storms were also impressive.
    Ah, Fitzsimons… my mom was stationed at Fitz, my aunt lived near there for years and an uncle died there. I’m glad to see the real estate repurposed for medical science and not just more houses. My nephew was recently treated at the brand new Denver Children’s Hospital on the Fitz grounds.
    We’ve lived through a few bad ice storms here in KS and the rifle-crack sound of the tree limbs breaking during the night in the timber around our house is scary and unforgettable.

  10. Volcanos spewing climate-change gases into the atmosphere? Without the proper carbon credit documentation? Get Barack Obama and Gordon Brown to give it a Good Talking To at once!

  11. UK Guardian: Scientists are to outline dramatic evidence that global warming threatens the planet in a new and unexpected way – by triggering earthquakes, tsunamis, avalanches and volcanic eruptions.
    You see? This volcano was caused by AGW. They now have almost all bases covered. They are still working on how to connect an asteroid impact but I am sure they are close. Just a few more adjustments to their models and….

  12. I Wonder if it will have any effect on the Arctic ice?
    Pesky nature trying to pit its puny might against the almighty humans, who we all know control the global climate. In New Zealand we have have opted to fine tune the Global Thermostat by cap n trade. So AGW proponents never fear. The ice maybe low today – but in a few years, thanks to our measures, it will be back to freezing normal again.

  13. Ron de Haan (17:42:49) : Status Update: From Red to Yellow
    The status has reduced from Red to Orange not Yellow. See here
    “Seismic activity of the volcano decreased: only three explosive events occurred from 02:15 till 15:46 UTC on September 11. According to an interpretation of seismic signals, ash plumes rose up to 4.5-6.5 km (14,800-21,300 ft) ASL. No visual data about this events – the volcano obscures by clouds…
    Activity of the volcano continues: a new viscous lava flow effuses at the lava dome. Ash explosions > 10 km (> 32,800 ft) ASL could occur at any time…”

  14. Frugal Dougal, gtrip
    The trouble is that some people just don’t get it, even though it is very simple.
    It is all about Cause and Effect.
    If you believe in The Cause, then any effect can be argued in support.

  15. Crosspatch,
    It is obvious that a seismograph is a perfectly suitable instrument for measuring the altitude of an ash plume.
    One only has to fly above the plume, throw the seismograph out of the plane, note the time when it enters the plume, and then note the time when it hits the ground. From there, it is a simple calculation to determine the height, assuming, of course, that gravity is constant.

  16. Creating catastrophe
    by Ian Plimer
    August 24, 2009
    “If our climate catastrophists want to twiddle the dials and stop climate change, they need to play God and change radiation in the galaxy, the Sun, the Earth’s orbit, tidal cycles and plate tectonics. Once they have mastered volcanoes, then we can let them loose on climate change. “
    Ian Plimer is the author of the international bestseller Heaven and Earth: Global warming – The missing science (Connor Court).
     
    http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/doomed-planet/2009/08/creating-catastrophe

  17. gtrip (20:46:23) :
    AGW’s message has become spasmodic.
    One day, the Royal Society is seriously considering nuking volcanoes to cool the Earth.
    Less than a week later, someone else might be claiming volcanoes are all because of Global Warming.
    The net effect on thier credibility is attrition.

  18. Blame it on Big Oil. The town of Esso is 120 km west of Klyuchevskoy Volcano, the tallest in Kamchatka, and active now.

  19. Get a grip people. This is no climate altering event. There are over 50- 60 volcanic eruptions every year. This is just another of your run of the mill VE 3 – 4 event
    To have a real effect on climate a volcanic eruption must spew many tonnes of ejecta far into the stratosphere – in fact over 100,000 feet.
    The real Joker in the pack at the moment is still Chaiten. Unprecedented, unpredictable and still erupting after 18 months. The eruption dome is getting bigger and bigger and bigger with no sign of abatement. There maybe a very large magma chamber underneath this ever expanding dome. If this dome was to catastrophically drop into the chamber and form a new caldera it then maybe time to go and buy a very thick jacket.

  20. Geoff Sherington (23:33:08) :
    Blame it on Big Oil. The town of Esso is 120 km west of Klyuchevskoy Volcano, the tallest in Kamchatka, and active now.

    There are in fact 6 interesting active volcano’s on the Kamchatka peninsula at the moment.

  21. I don’t recall much of a mention in the media when Sarychev erupted a few weeks ago. But then, volcanism hadn’t been publicly linked with AGW.
    Maybe now we’ll get to hear the BBC and Guardian salivating over the eruption of Shiveluch. Maybe we’ll get to hear how AGW caused all those countless eruptions over the eons. I mean, how else did Vesuvius, for example, blow its stack back in 79AD? Perhaps it was down to all those chariot horses and their hay rich diets? I’m told that garum (a popular but rancid fish paste) had a potent effect on Roman alimentary canals.
    Oh happy days…

  22. gtrip (20:46:23) :
    Scientists . . . are still working on how to connect an asteroid impact [to global warming] but I am sure they are close.

    Try “teleconnection.” It worked for Dr Mann.
    Meanwhile, a little ash might counterbalance the El Nino, keeping the Global Temperature steady and hindering the relentless drive toward Cap’n Tax.

  23. Shiveluch is at the junction of two long lines of plutonic activity.
    The Aleutian range of volcanoes lies on a beautifully smooth curve that runs between the northernmost end of the planetary uplift that makes the Rockies (Mt Redoubt, Mt Elias, Mt Wrangell), and the northernmost end of the mountain / volcano chains that make the eastern Russian Kurilskiye Ostrova, Japan and the Japan Trench, etc on the other side of the Pacific.
    What fascinates me is the incredible regularity of the Aleutian chain, as well as the regular conformation of all volcanoes in the area to this line. From this, I would not be surprised to see a correlation between global COOLING and earthquakes /eruptions in this area, if not a fantastically high correlation, at least higher than elsewhere. And we know there is a correlation, don’t we?

  24. The Mail Online has a pretty good piece about Chaiten:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-563975/Amazing-pictures-The-lightning-storm-engulfed-erupting-volcano.html
    And comments seem to all revolve around global warming, esither spoofing, or more seriously:
    “Large quantities of ash sent into the air produce localised global cooling, with a smaller widespread effect on the worlds climate. Ash reflects the suns rays very effectively. It all depends how much ash is sent into the atmosphere – enough and global temperatures can take a significant short term dip.
    – Mr H, UK, 07/5/2008 11:38
    Looking at the pics….thats a wholelotta ash.
    JimB

  25. (part of) Volcanic Ash Advisory Text:
    .
    INFO SOURCE: MTSAT-1R
    AVIATION COLOUR CODE: NIL
    ERUPTION DETAILS: VA DISSIPATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
    OBS VA DTG: 13/0159Z
    OBS VA CLD: VA NOT IDENTIFIABLE FROM SATELLITE DATA. WINDS ABV THE VOLCANO AT 13/0240Z FL100 210/19KT FL200 210/25KT FL300 250/50KT FL400 250/49KT FROM JMA NWP MODEL.
    FCST VA CLD +6HR: NIL
    FCST VA CLD +12HR: NIL
    FCST VA CLD +18HR: NIL
    RMK: NIL
    NXT ADVISORY: NO FURTHER ADVISORIES=
    http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/svd/vaac/data/TextData/20090913_SHEV_0135_Text.html

  26. Les Francis (23:49:41) :
    “Get a grip people. This is no climate altering event. There are over 50- 60 volcanic eruptions every year. This is just another of your run of the mill VE 3 – 4 event”
    Les Francis,
    Not a climate altering event, but certainly a weather altering event over a longer period of time.
    According to Joseph D’Aleo the NA summer this year was a typical “Volcanic Summer” caused by four medium sized volcanic eruptions.
    http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joesblog/major_eruptions_continue_at_mt_redoubt1/
    In March we had the eruption of Mt Redoubt, in June the eruption of Sarychev Peak which effected weather events all over the NH and now Shiveluch. All three eruptions produced plumes that penetrated the stratosphere.
    And there is more to come:
    http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/08/the_ongoing_eruption_at_koryak.php
    The Maunder and Dalton Minimum coincided with an increase in volcanic activity.
    Spotless Days, Current Stretch: 11 days
    2009 total: 204 days (80%) Since 2004: 715 days
    Typical Solar Min: 485 days
    Connection or Coincidence? Just thinking about it.
    For those of you who are interested in the Chaitén eruption, you can find the links
    including the webcam here: http://www.seablogger.com/?page_id=11086

  27. This volcanoe will do virtually nothing to global temperature. It is located on far too high a latitude. Furthermore it is located on the side of earth where winter is setting in and some shielding in the stratosphere doesn’t make much difference. It is also totally incomparable in magnitude to e.g. the Islandic Laki in the eightteenth century.

  28. Re: Ron de Haan (06:01:32) :
    “According to Joseph D’Aleo the NA summer this year was a typical “Volcanic Summer” caused by four medium sized volcanic eruptions.”
    Cool ‘typical volcanic summer’ only in NA, virtually nowhere else. NA is a small island on the globe, please check this.
    Apparently this chart is correct for both NA and Holland:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km_Anom0603_2009_2009_1951_1980/GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km_Anom0603_2009_2009_1951_1980.gif

  29. Some research has shown a correlation between solar minimums and earthquakes.
    http://www.springerlink.com/content/buvw2tq081013210/
    I believe that there will also eventually be shown to be a correlation between solar minimums and volcanic activity. This may be the actual causal link beheind the observed correlation between solar minimums and lower global temperatures, not Total Solar Irradiance or cosmic rays (per Svensmark).
    Craig

  30. North of 43 south of 44 (18:29:56) :
    Something is up Ron de Haan ….
    4.7 2009/09/13 00:13:25 46.789 142.356 55.5 SAKHALIN, RUSSIA
    According to: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
    REPLY: That’s over 1000 miles away from Shiveluch, not likely relevant in any way. – Anthony
    North of 43 south of 44, Anthony,
    You will probably know about this site if you are interested in Seismic Monitoring, but I post it anyway: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

  31. Richard (22:21:45) :
    Ron de Haan (17:42:49) : Status Update: From Red to Yellow
    The status has reduced from Red to Orange not Yellow. See here
    You are correct Richard, my mistake.

  32. Madman (07:54:28) :
    “Some research has shown a correlation between solar minimums and earthquakes.”
    I believe Landschiedt’s mechanism that drives solar minimum/maximums is based on the shifting barycentre of the solar system. A quiet sun was hypothesised to occur if the centre of gravity of the solar system lies within the solar limb. If so, there may be a causal mechanism that involves tidal gravity
    or something similar.

  33. RR Kampen (07:48:25) :
    It does plenty. It cools the area that is the source of the Arctic Lows that plunge across much of N. America.

  34. RR Kampen (07:52:31) :
    Re: Ron de Haan (06:01:32) :
    “According to Joseph D’Aleo the NA summer this year was a typical “Volcanic Summer” caused by four medium sized volcanic eruptions.”
    Cool ‘typical volcanic summer’ only in NA, virtually nowhere else. NA is a small island on the globe, please check this.
    Apparently this chart is correct for both NA and Holland:
    http://data.giss.nasa.gov/work/gistemp/NMAPS/tmp_GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km_Anom0603_2009_2009_1951_1980/GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km_Anom0603_2009_2009_1951_1980.gif
    RR Kampen,
    You have repeated exactly what has been stated in the posting.
    We’re talking about the NA (North American) summer.
    Your link unfortunately does not work.
    For colder weather conditions in the Netherlands you have to wait until the Atlantic cools down a little more but that’s only a matter of time.
    It will make the ice skaters happy.

  35. Interesting note.
    Monday 24th August 2009
    Volcanoes of Kamchatka, Russia
    For the first time in 60 years, six volcanoes are showing signs of activity in Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Koryaksky, Shiveluch, Bezymianny, Gorely, Karymsky and Klyuchevskoy. The volcanoes are emitting gas, although not all have erupted lava. Activity of Koryaksky volcano has increased. Ash explosions over 5 km (>16,400 ft) ASL could occur at any time. Ash plumes could affect international low-flying aircraft.
    Seismicity of the volcano increased in the last day with over 100 volcanic earthquakes were registered near the volcano. About 30 volcanic earthquakes were recorded in two hours – from 22:00 to 24:00 UT on 23rd August. The volcano was obscured by clouds and no visual observations made. According to satellite data (NOAA-17), probable an ash plume extending 50 km ESE occurred at 23:07 UTC on 23rd August 2009. Shiveluch volcano – Activity of the volcano continues with a new viscous lava flow effusing from the lava dome. Seismicity was above background levels all week. According to seismic data, possibly ash plumes rose up to 5.9 km (19,400 ft) ASL at the lava dome last week. Seismic signals correspond to hot avalanches at the lava dome. Klyuchevskoy volcano – Seismicity was above background levels on 18-20 August, and at background levels during other days. Gas-steam emissions were observed at the volcano on 13-17 August, and the volcano was obscured by clouds on 18-20 August.
    According to satellite data, a thermal hotspot was recorded the volcano on August 15 and 18-19. Growth of the lava dome continues at Bezymianny volcano. Moderate fumarolic activity of the volcano was observed on August 14-17. Weak hotspots were recorded on satellite images of the volcano on August 15 and 17-18. Seismicity was slightly above background levels at Karymsky volcano on August 14 and 19-20, and at background levels during other days. Visual observations of the volcano on 14th August showed ash plumes rising up to 2.5 km (8,200 ft) ASL. According to satellite data, a hotspot was registered over the volcano on August 15, 17 and 19. Scientists are predicting that Gorely volcano might soon erupt for the first time in twenty two years.
    Volcanolive.com

  36. RR Kampen
    With a global warming conference in Denmark I think you can be pretty sure you’ll have an Eleven Cities race this year.

  37. RR Kampen (07:48:25) :
    “This volcanoe will do virtually nothing to global temperature. It is located on far too high a latitude. Furthermore it is located on the side of earth where winter is setting in and some shielding in the stratosphere doesn’t make much difference.”
    It depends how much SO2 has been ejected into the Stratosphere and how it’s distributed. Don’t forget the volcanic sunsets we had all summer and most of the SO2, causing the red coloring came from the Saraychev Peak Eruption from June 12th http://edutube.org/video/saraychev-peak-volcanic-eruption-12-june-2009
    “It is also totally incomparable in magnitude to e.g. the Islandic Laki in the eightteenth century.”
    Laki was not a Stratospheric eruption but a fissure eruption. A totally different ball game. It ejected a really huge amount of gases for months that poisoned the atmosphere almost the entire NH atmosphere.
    The heavy fog that spread over Europe killed people and life stock in the fields from
    France to Germany and the famine that was triggered in Iceland killed half the population.
    http://www.kwintessential.co.uk/articles/article/Iceland/Laki-Volcano-Eruption-Iceland/529
    Iceland is a real dangerous wild card as are fissure eruptions.

  38. Phil. (10:44:58) :
    Ron de Haan (06:01:32) :
    In March we had the eruption of Mt Redoubt, in June the eruption of Sarychev Peak which effected weather events all over the NH and now Shiveluch. All three eruptions produced plumes that penetrated the stratosphere.
    No sign of a stratospheric plume on MODIS over the last few days.
    http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?A092560235
    Phil, I only have the data available from the link I’ve posted.

  39. I wonder if it is related…
    Here on the Left Coast just south of San Francisco, it was cold all day.
    Now it is raining.
    (Last night we had a tiny sprinkle. Odd, but not a big deal. This is real rain.)
    Very unusual. “Normally” we might get a sprinkle, then dry through Halloween. Sometimes, but rarely, a drizzle near Halloween just to make you worry, but I can’t remember being “rained out” in 20 years. Now we’re being rained on and it isn’t even October yet…
    Some years it was “A/C” weather all through September. Never been fireplace and raincoat weather before…

  40. Is it just me? Looking at the map / picture up top, it looks like there is a “fuzzy line” just south of Anchorage. Above that, the picture is sharp. Below it, fuzzy. Click on it and the full sized image is sharp, but the displayed image looks like it was doing the “repeated pass image sharpening” thing and got interrupted. Might want to try a new upload of the picture. (Unless of course it IS just me 😉

  41. Ron de Haan (11:28:05) :
    RR Kampen (07:52:31) :
    “Your link unfortunately does not work.”
    Strange. Works for me. Shows global temperature anomaly for summer (JJA) 2009 and shows the US as on of three cool islands on a very warm globe.
    “For colder weather conditions in the Netherlands you have to wait until the Atlantic cools down a little more but that’s only a matter of time.”
    Wouldn’t help, as there is no discernible relation between cool pools in the Atlantic and winter weather in Holland. By the way, which part of the Atlantic do you mean?

  42. Rereke Whakaaro (22:54:38) :
    … assuming, of course, that gravity is constant.
    —————————————————
    With all that CO2 we are spewing into the atmosphere, the mass of the earth must be increasing….shirley?
    It wouldn’t surprise me to see Global Warming causing a gravitational shift. News reports are no stranger than this.

  43. Oh give it a break already – as if this or other eruptions have not ever happened in the face of MASSIVE warming before – are you kidding me. first off the ash clouds has to punch trop, secondly it’s position or latitude makes a huge difference.
    How this or other natural cycles omits CO2 which IS behind the background warming is really a g i n t s t r e t c h

  44. RR Kampen (01:14:24) :
    Ron de Haan (11:28:05) :
    RR Kampen (07:52:31) :
    “Your link unfortunately does not work.”
    Strange. Works for me. Shows global temperature anomaly for summer (JJA) 2009 and shows the US as on of three cool islands on a very warm globe.
    “For colder weather conditions in the Netherlands you have to wait until the Atlantic cools down a little more but that’s only a matter of time.”
    Wouldn’t help, as there is no discernible relation between cool pools in the Atlantic and winter weather in Holland. By the way, which part of the Atlantic do you mean?
    RR Kampen,
    I don’t know why the link does not work.
    In regard to the winters in the Netherlands,
    Have a look at this graph and tell me there is no link between the negative phases of the NOA and Dutch winters.
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/Winter-NAO-Index.png

  45. Cold weather in the Netherlands and most of west europe is al based on a large high presure area with nort east winds from russia and scandinavia. Wind from the north father in the winter months will result in snow but other directions west and south west(most of the time) wil give rain and wind

  46. The alert status at Shiveluch was lowered from “red” to “orange” over the weekend. It appears that the ash plume since the explosions on Friday (9/11/09) may not have been as large, possibly reaching only ~6.5 km / 21,000 feet, but clouds obscured most of the eruption. The current status report:
    Activity of the volcano continues: a new viscous lava flow effuses at the lava dome. Ash explosions > 10 km (> 32,800 ft) ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft. Seismic activity of the volcano decreased: only three explosive events occurred from 02:15 till 15:46 UTC on September 11
    http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2009/09/monday_musings_the_end_at_mont.php

  47. Lucy Skywalker (01:20:12):
    We all love ya! But long lines of plutonic activity are for nerds. Meet me at Nepenthe’s in Big Sur next weekend and I’ll show you some lines of unplatonic activity. 😉

  48. Re: Ron de Haan (11:44:23) :
    “In regard to the winters in the Netherlands,
    Have a look at this graph and tell me there is no link between the negative phases of the NOA and Dutch winters.
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/Winter-NAO-Index.png

    Hi Ron, as Jeroen explained above cold winter weather in Holland derives from blockings over the region Greenland-Scandinavia-Northwest Russia and these are associated with negative NAO. Blockings are relatively rare, but negative temp anomalies are large then. A winter sporting only four weeks of this generally ends up at the coldest in the record.
    So yes, there is a definite link, which is well known in the met community here.
    But it is hard to correlate the NAO with the distribution of cold and warm SST-pools in the Atlantic. We would have expected a cool to normal August based on the distribution this summer, but the month went into the top 10-percentile.

  49. RR Kampen (02:19:48) :
    I have said what I have said.
    All memorable Dutch winters happened when the Atlantic was in a cold phase.
    Nothing more nothing less.
    http://www.intellicast.com/Community/Content.aspx?ref=rss&a=167
    Any “hobby” meteorologist can tell you not to expect a cold August when the North Sea has warmed up to 20 degrees Celsius.
    http://home.hccnet.nl/v.d.horn/meteopagina/zeewatertemperatuur.htm
    Expect to have a winter similar to last year.
    In other words, keep you skates at hand.

  50. Re: Ron de Haan (10:40:50) :
    RR Kampen (02:19:48) :
    “All memorable Dutch winters happened when the Atlantic was in a cold phase.
    Nothing more nothing less.”
    There is no relation. I have said what I’ve said. You may come with sources giving evidence to your hypothesis! I checked e.g. the record cold of 2 March 2005 and found the Atlantic in a warm fase.
    “Any “hobby” meteorologist can tell you not to expect a cold August when the North Sea has warmed up to 20 degrees Celsius.”
    After July 2006 the North Sea was record warm at 20-22° C. The ensuing August was decidely cool (also record wet). The North Sea does nothing to the jet.
    By the way, there is no relation between a warm North Sea and rainfall in September/fall. Checked last week.
    “Expect to have a winter similar to last year.
    In other words, keep you skates at hand.”
    It is well known that season prediction doesn’t work. Best we can say is: the chance winter 2009-10 will be warmer than the 1971-2000 average is near 5/6.

  51. Update from: http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
    The alert status at Shiveluch was lowered from “red” to “orange” over the weekend. It appears that the ash plume since the explosions on Friday (9/11/09) may not have been as large, possibly reaching only ~6.5 km / 21,000 feet, but clouds obscured most of the eruption. The current status report:
    Activity of the volcano continues: a new viscous lava flow effuses at the lava dome. Ash explosions > 10 km (> 32,800 ft) ASL could occur at any time. The activity of the volcano could affect international and low-flying aircraft. Seismic activity of the volcano decreased: only three explosive events occurred from 02:15 till 15:46 UTC on September 11
    If you want to see images of the volcano before the eruption, including closeups of the dome, check out the KVERT page for Shiveluch.

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