Also let us not forget, Australia set a new continent-wide low temperature just a few short months ago
Australia records hottest winter on record, summer tipped to be hotter
Cathy Alexander The Herald Sun, Australia
September 01, 2009 12:53pm
UPDATE 5.11pm: BELIEVE it or not, the nation has just sweated through its hottest August on record … but don’t blame climate change.
The bureau boffins described it as most extraordinary” as temperatures crept above 38 degrees in some areas.
And winter as a whole came within a whisker of being the warmest of record – it was just 0.01 of a degree cooler than the record-holder, 1996.
Blair Trewin, a climate scientist with the bureau, said the warm weather was caused by a lack of large frontal systems sweeping up from the southern oceans, which would have brought cool air.
Instead, persistent high pressure systems hung about the subtropics.
Dr Trewin said the heatwaves were caused more by natural variability than by climate change.
Climate change had pushed up temperatures by about 0.8 of a degree over the past century but August came in at more than two degrees above average.
“The set-up we had this month would have given us an extremely warm month whether it happened 100 years ago or it happened now,” Dr Trewin told AAP.
“There’s a lot of natural variability but you’ve got a climate change signal on top of that.”
And there’s no end in sight to the warm weather – the Bureau is forecasting a hot, dry spring because of warm conditions in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
Australia’s east coast suffered an unusual lack of frontal systems during August, which usually blow cooler air into the region.
Areas of south-east Queensland and northern NSW have been regularly breaking August records, with Evans Head on the far north NSW coast sweltering through a state record of 36.8 degrees last week.
“Hot air has just built up and built up … without any breaks,” Dr Trewin said, adding it could mean Australia is in for more above-average temperatures during spring and summer.
“It’s suggesting a fairly high chance of dry conditions in northern Queensland, Victoria and South Australia.”
“There’s a high risk of a hot spring and early summer over the east of Australia, that obviously has implications for fire weather.”
Tuesday 01 September 2009
CLIMATE SUMMARY – NT REGIONAL OFFICE
Record breaking hot August.
The Northern Territory last month recorded its hottest August on record, with several long-term climate records broken. “Every weather reporting station in the Alice Springs district exceeded its previous hottest August, many by several degrees”, said Sam Cleland, manager of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Northern Territory Climate Services Centre.
“Furthermore, the hot August followed from warmer than usual June and July, and many stations in southern parts of the Territory also reported their warmest winter on record.” Mr Cleland said.
Further details can be found on the Bureau’s Climate Summaries page, at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/index.shtml
A direct link to the NT Summary is at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/nt/summary.shtml
Wheat crops in parts of Australia have suffered damage due to extreme temperatures which widely approach 100F in winter (something unheard of previously).
Uh huh….and last week it was -119 F in Vostok.
So not everywhere down under….
If the jet streams are studied then it will be obvious that these are not in their normal positions over Australia for this part of the year.
Tasmania has just had it’s wettest month on record – don’t know where that warmest on record comes from.
I would still like to know if the wholesale destruction of the tropical rainforest in Indonesia has an effect on the weather patterns in Australia. Does the altered climate in Indonesia due to these land practices have an effect on the jet streams? The Indonesian Archipelago stretches right across just to the North of Australia.
Woolfe (17:07:56) : “In the Australian today we have two relevant stories, one saying snow has just fallen in Kalgoorlie (600k west Perth on the edge of the desert) …”
Caution on this, Woolfe. It is very misleading. The full story is not as your note implies:
Les Francis (20:30:21) : “I would still like to know if the wholesale destruction of the tropical rainforest in Indonesia has an effect on the weather patterns in Australia. Does the altered climate in Indonesia due to these land practices have an effect on the jet streams? The Indonesian Archipelago stretches right across just to the North of Australia.”
Very cogent observation.
Western demand for bio-fuels clear jungles for palm farms. No doubt there is some measurable effect.
Especially since Indonesia is upstream.
Yeah….this is “anthropogenic” and it happens.
If only the REAL anthropogenic problems could be addressed….as opposed to the fantasy of the demonization of CO2 and cap and trade.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Woolfe (17:07:56) : 600k west Perth
Say what?
“timetochooseagain (19:48:52) :
Interestingly, it looks as though the greatest maximum temperature anomalies were more widespread and of greater magnitude than those of minimum temps:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/aus/summary.shtml
And MAN must be blazing hot down under. Ouch!”
Yeah, it’s SOOOOO hot here I am having to wear clothes and a fleece jacket rather than speeods and thongs.
I think I’ve experinced AGW first-hand. I was out getting some therapy, of the retail kind, and while walking along sun exposed streets it was warm and breezy. While walking along shaded streets, it was cool and breezy. This must be evidence of AGW, I must pay more tax to stop it, I must save polar bears and I must learn to swim. Am I dreaming?
*bangs head hard on table*
No. I’m not!
Patrick Davis (20:58:37), timetochooseagain (19:48:52):
Right Patrick. I have just closed the window and swapped from sitting at my desk to using the laptop in bed under a blanket – at 3 in the afternoon! Yes, I am in the ‘hot’ zone. But it was unseasonally hot just a few days ago. Now it isn’t. My understanding was that wild swings were characteristic of the LIA. Certainly there is no long-standing buildup of collected heat here such as would be needed for the AGW theory.
Dr David Jones (19:29:40) :
Wheat crops in parts of Australia have suffered damage due to extreme temperatures which widely approach 100F in winter (something unheard of previously).
Frankly, I’m having a little trouble with this. You can’t really be talking about Victoria, NSW, South Australia or the lower half of Western Australia. The temperatures haven’t been that high and you don’t grow wheat in the tropics. Supply detailed references or crawl back to your troll cave and tell them its not working.
REPLY: They do in fact grow wheat in Australia, a lot of it, but the alarmist Dr. Jones of BoM seems to miss the fact that wheat crop prospects in Oz are actually up. This from Bloomberg.
Australian Farmer Confidence Rises on Winter Rain, Bank Says
By Madelene Pearson
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) — Confidence among farmers in Australia, the world’s fourth-largest wheat shipper and third- largest canola exporter, grew for a second quarter, driven by rainfall in early winter, Rabobank Groep NV said.
The number of farmers who expect conditions to improve in the coming year climbed to 28 percent, up from 20 percent in the previous quarter, the bank, the world’s largest agricultural lender, said today, citing its latest Rural Confidence Survey. The number of farmers expecting conditions to worsen decreased to 25 percent, from 37 percent, it said in an e-mailed statement.
Australian farmers are waiting on rain needed to finish winter crops including wheat, barley and canola before the harvest starts in about November. Rabobank has predicted Australia’s wheat crop at 22.8 million metric tons, up from last year’s 21.4 million tons.
Full article here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=awbIQ6oLrpTI
We can also explain the temperature anomalies by causal mechanisms.
If we in a simplistic way define climate as a set of quantities that remains after the heat transport from the equator to the poles ( positive or negative) in the case of temperature.
An if we by way of analogy consider it a set of trains running to a non-linear timetable then if the terminal or destination is malfunctioning one would expect the trains to start banking up,
http://www.temis.nl/protocols/o3field/data/forecast/today_sp.gif
Neil O’Rourke (19:00:46) :
Thank you for the beautiful Dorothea McKellar poem, penned in an era when poetry had to have meter and rhyme.
Rephelan
You are correct. Temperatures in lower WA (I’m in Perth) have been a little lower in August than usual but overall in WA a little higher. But as WA stretches from the tropics (just below Bali) to the Southern Ocean and is about 1 million square miles in area, regional differences are very high. One thing though, this august Perth has had the most wet days for about a decade which is extremely welcome.
I’m on the mid-coast of NSW, currently waiting for rain on my bamboo.
This winter has been a warm one, but the previous two were cold, damp and dominated by southerlies: straight out of the nineteen fifties. We even had thunder last august, something I’d never experienced in my adult life, as far as I could remember. This really helps me to give some credence to the PDO thesis and makes me think that one warm winter proves little if anything.
Interestingly, I was in Tuscany this May-June. It was so hot in mid-May that I was ready to abandon my plans of hiking all through the Siena region. June, however, was quite cool enough for me to proceed with plans.
My last hike, to the town of Montalcino, was in late June. I abandoned it toward the end…it was just too bloody cold!
I’m starting to understand what our betters would have us believe: what warms is climate, what cools is weather.
Rob Townshend
Dr David Jones
The mean temperature in August of the towns in the central wheatbelt of WA were all around 64F (18C) with anomalies of +1.8F (1C) a temperature of 100F (37,7C) wasn’t reached anywhere. But much more significantly July and June’s anomalies were all negative and even more importantly in most places in the wheatbelt the rainfall is well above average in August (and July) hence the expectation of an increased wheat crop this year. So stories of devastated crops sound more than a little far fetched. As Roy Spencer has recently remarked best check your facts first. By the way Western Australia produces about 45% of Austraslia’s wheat crop. Incidentally I am a Dr too.
It’s been hell here in Queensland, there’s no way we can eat all these strawberries.
rephelan (22:27:11) :
REPLY: They do in fact grow wheat in Australia, a lot of it,
Thank you. I never meant to suggest that Australia doesn’t grow wheat or that I am unaware that it is one of the major wheat growing and exporting countries of the world. I am suggesting that the only place I would suspect might have 100degee f temperatures in winter is in the Northern Territories which is not wheat growing territory, while NSW, Victoria, Southern Australia and the lower half of Western Australia are wheat growing regions and are not seeing those temperatures. Southern Australia may have started winter with unusually cold temperatures, had a warm August and the wheat crop may be having some drought issues, but please spare me the dishonesty of suggesting that Victoria or New South Wales is suffering through a 100 degree winter and I should be petrified about global warming. “Dr. Jones” has now reached the same level on my troll meter as Flanagan.
New Zealand supposedly had it’s warmest August on record aswell. 1.7C above average.
We just had the last three months of record cold temperatures.
The warmer August was thought to be caused by warmer winds from Australia. At least they didn’t jump and down and blame it on the hoax of man made climate change this time. That seems to be the mantra these days for record breaking warmer weather and when it’s record breaking cold weather. It’s either completely ignored or the same bozos say it’s all just natural.
Marian
New Zealand
” Paul R (23:19:48) :
It’s been hell here in Queensland, there’s no way we can eat all these strawberries.”
The strawberries are fantastic, thanks! 🙂
RE, Dr Jones- from memory the last stuff I read from him he seemed to be quite the believer in Mann’s hockey stick. That’s people in charge for ya I guess.
(REPLY: They do in fact grow wheat in Australia, a lot of it, but the alarmist Dr. Jones of BoM seems to miss the fact that wheat crop prospects in Oz are actually up.)
Yeah… in some places.
Australia is a big place, a quick look at the BoM site shows that anything below 30 deg Sth has had fair winter rain, but areas above this have had almost nothing after June. The Darling Downs in subtropical Queensland grows a lot of wheat, had 50-100mm in June, then hardly a drop and record August Temps. The Downs has cracking clays that can hold a fair bit of moisture, but conditions in late winter may have been excessive for winter crops. Some rain forecast on Friday for this area may provide some relief.
Anyway good to see southern Australia got some reasonable winter rain for a change, it’s supposed to have a mediterranean climate. If Australia gets a bumper wheat crop it will be from those southern regions coming good again.
The Australian monthly mean temperature anomalies have only been calculated by BoM since 1950. This record for August is a record since that time.
There was a higher monthly anomaly in April 2005.
Yearly anomalies have been calculated by BoM since 1910. The first 8 months of 2009 give an anomaly of 0.67C which if continued over the whole year would be the seventh highest.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/graphs/HadCET_act_graphEX.gif
This link gives a graphical representation of Central England temperatures since 1772, with percentile ranges. It shows that temperature is highly variable, over days, weeks, decades and centuries. Fossil records show that about 40 milliion years ago the Antarctic was so warm that it was covered in forests.
So we know that the atmospheric temperature naturally swings wildly on all time frames. In that context, anyone who thinks we should waste money and effort trying to control a possible increase of a degree or two over a hundred years, from CO2, is completely irresponsible. The money and effort should be spent on more serious issues, as Bjorn Lomborg has pointed out.
The equatorward shift of the jet streams following the recent PDO phase change explains both the warm Central Australia and the cold North America.
In both cases (assuming Michael Bishop above is correct) the culprit seems to be equatorward movement of the high pressure cells on the poleward side of the mid latitude jets.
The large continental interior of Australia with it’s dryness, latitudinal position and sunshine allows it to warm up despite the air having been polar in origin. The northern section of North America does not have the same advantages and stays cool when the polar air masses are in control globally. The Texas and S.E. USA can, however, become warm and dry during a global cooling spell for much the same reason as does Australia being nearer the equator with stronger sunshine.
Furthermore when the equatorial air masses shrink during a negative PDO phase the jets are able to swing about more latitudinally thus giving both more warm and more cold spells around the globe simultaneously.
It is poleward and equatorward air circulation system shifts that explain all regional climate variability.
Unless human activity can cause a large scale and permanent shift in those systems comparable to what the oceans can achieve when they change phase then human activity is of no significance.
The recent movement back equatorward from the more poleward positions of the recent warming period shows that we have done nothing significant to affect natural climate changes.
The systems shift hundreds of miles poleward or equatorward in response to oceanic changes.
I suspect that any effect we have would be less than a mile and wholly insignificant in the scheme of things.
So Dr Jones is considered an alarmist because he states the factual situation. Ummm. I remember there were ‘debates’ on this site earlier this year where, I suppose they are called ‘alarmists’, individuals noted a pattern of climatic and temperature extremes throughout Australia over the last couple of years. These comments were of course shot down in flames at the time, and yet the Australian climate is continuing a particularly volatile phase (it wasn’t noted on this site but the southern hemisphere anomoly in July was the largest recorded http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2 ).
All these warm anomolies during an extended solar minimum, kind of makes even more of a mockery of low sunspots = low temperature pseudotheories doesn’t it?
From the part of Germany where I live I can report a slightly warmer than usual summer – and it was lovely!
And it’s good to see some good journalism from that paper.
My Australian relatives have a holiday home on Tasmania where it has been bloody cold last week…so there.
Here in the UK we’ve just had our 91st warmest summer since records began in 1660-beaten by many from the LIA.
Of course the UK summer was just weather whereas the Australian experience was climate.
tonyb