More news from the weather is not climate department. A historic winter storm event in South America is underway (July 22nd, 2009) meanwhile in the northern hemisphere, fresh snow in the Alps in July. – Anthony
Guest Post By Alexandre Aguiar / MetSul Weather Center
A major and historic winter storm is underway at this Wednesday morning in Argentina. Snow is falling in many parts of the country and in many areas not used to winter precipitation. Local news reports indicate snow already have been observed in the provinces of Mendoza, San Luis, San Juan, Cordoba, La Pampa and Buenos Aires.
In Bahia Blanca, a coastal city in the Southern part of the Buenos Aires, the snow storm is heavy and local authorities describe it as the worst snow event in 50 years. Roads are already blocked by snow and ice in the regional. TN news channel reports some areas of the Sierra de La Ventana could pick up even 3 feet of snow, unimaginable to the region.
Early this Wednesday afternoon, satellite pictures were showing a band of clouds advancing to the North and snow precipitation could no be ruled out in the capital Buenos Aires. In July 9th and 10th 2007 it snowed in the city of Buenos Aires for the first time in 89 years and it could snow again just two years later. Snow was also reported in the capital of Chile Santiago. MetSul Weather Center is not ruling out snow also in Uruguay.
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Was Gore doing a fly by? heheh.
Can I ask a doofy question? Of the two ice records, AMSR and SSMI which do you consider more accurate?
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/Arctic-ice-concentration-maps-from-SSMI-and-AMSRE
And is the difference a difference in something like pixel count?
DJ (15:24:58) : Warmest June on record in the southern hemisphere and this is the best you can do?
South American’s will enjoy a bit of cooler weather as this region has been experiencing very large positive temperature anomalies until recently
And here we have a perfect example of the nuttiness of the AGW crowd. Why believe the facts on the ground when you can believe a computer generated data food product? Perhaps facts on the ground ought to be believed because a standard part of testing computer programs is called the “sanity check”. You first, before anything else, ask “Is the output sane and reasonably close to reality?” Or put in the negative “Is the output so outrageously out of touch with reality as to be insane?”
This is before you do much of anything else. Once in 89 year snow is bad enough, but twice in a couple of years? That means “warmer” fails the “sanity check”. And you want to believe “its warmer”?
So please, take your anomalous anomaly maps and look at them real hard. Then look at the facts (and snow) on the ground. Then ask yourself the simple question: “Which is real, the computer data food product, or the snow?” Once you have a grip on reality, then ask the question “Given that the snow and widespread reports of cold induced crop reductions are real, what does this say about the truthyness of the anomalous anomaly maps?”
I know it’s painful to come to grips with the fact that you are believing in a fantasy. I know it’s hard to tell an old friend that they have “a problem”. But the sooner to “go there” the quicker you can start your recovery.
To be blunt:
It is cold and snowing a lot in the southern hemisphere.
It is NOT hot this “summer” in the northern hemisphere.
Many places in the north are reporting “summer” more like spring / fall.
The only possible conclusion is that it’s cold, and getting colder.
This means the computer products are broken. Seriously broken.
There is a natural, roughly 30 year, weather cycle, and it’s turned cold.
AGW is dead, it just doesn’t know it yet.
The time to “distance yourself” from AGW is now.
The longer you wait, the more painful it will be.
Never blindly trust computer models.
Ever.
(I have 36 years experience programming and managing computers. I have a Community College Teaching Credential in computer science. I know computers. I’ve built several from scratch including putting together a 12 processor Sun from “piece parts” i.e. cpu’s not on the boards, memory in shipping boxes and I’ve installed and configured more operating systems than I can count on everything from PCs to Cray Supercomputers. I have managed the build, quality control / quality assurance, and shipment of a compiler tool chain through several product cycles. Oh, and one of my software projects got 4 software patents. It is my professional opinion that the computer codes that create the data series and the climate models that turn that data into dire predictions of warming are seriously broken. Be advised, I have ported GIStemp to Linux and have it running in my living room. I’ve not just read the code, I’ve made it work… what is your opinion based on? …)
Neven (17:47:43) : I don’t know if there will be a record low sea ice extent in the Arctic, but one can hardly call what is happening up there natural variability, can one? If only for the speed at which it is occurring.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Shows the red (current year) line more or less “middle of the pack”. It looks to me like absolutely normal and well inside “natural variability” given that there are prior years lines on each side of the red line. The “speed” looks more or less average too.
Given the abnormally warm water near by, the average ice melt implies some cold offsetting the water. Like maybe the air gets cold first, and then the water cools off over a couple of years…
Looking at the picture of Bahia Blanca up above, I just noticed the Palm Trees in the road divider (right edge) and center of shot. Palm trees usually don’t grow in the snow all that much… It would be interesting to find out the species / variety. It will have a known lower limit for temperatures…
Any good atlas and many globes show the “limit of palms” line circling the globe in both hemispheres… Yeah, they can take a bit of snow, but not much.
July average highs in Papillion, NE are either 87 or 88. Easy month to compare. Actual temperature history is running decidedly cooler.
http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/USNE0382?from=dailyAvg_topnav_undeclared
So far in July, we are an average of 5.8F low.
Tim Clark (11:16:32) :
“Chaiten volcano in Chile perhaps?”
No Tim,
The ash plume of Chaitén Volcano reaches not high enough to generate anything but a local effect.
Only if a substantial amount of emissions reach the troposphere like we saw with Mount Redoubt and Sarychev Peak Volcano on june 12th which reached an altitude of 21 km, we will have notable effects.
Sarychev ejected a considerable amount of SO2 into the troposphere resulting in red skies, a lot of ash and water vapor causing noctilucent clouds all over the world.
A few trees in Nor Cal are also starting to change. Similar to your case drought would not explain it, we had a good rainy ending to the past rainy season and the season ended later than normal.
In Illinois, the cottonwoods are starting to drop leaves already, in July.
This summer’s weather in the Washington DC suburbs has been a good news/bad news sort of situation. Good in that our temperatures have been quite mild, in fact both June and July have been 3-4 degrees F below the UHI influenced normals. Where we generally would have had a number of 95 plus days, and maybe even one or two 100’s, we have barely made it above 90 and then only a few times. Low humidity, cool evenings, very pleasant all around. The bad side? I am a share holder in Dominion Virginia Power and air conditioning demands have been so reduced that customer consumption has dropped 14% from normal reducing their profits substantially. Might be a hit to the hoped for dividend this year.
I would say that actual power use is a more reliable metric than some of the less-than-well-sited temperature sensors found in this region. Since electricity use in winter and in summer is truly dependent upon how cold and warm it actually is rather than what a model is predicting.
Regards to all,
John
To Bluegrue (11.28:08):
I guess you have heard about the small town of Coronel Pringles, near Sierra de la Ventana, Buenos Aires province, at about 30°1’S – 61°20’W – Altitude: 247 m.a.s.l., they had -4.5ºC on July 16th, then when the snowstorm began two days ago they saw the biggest snowstorm ever. In fact, it was the FIRST one in their entire history. They were (and still are) isolated from the rest of the country and rescue operations had to be carried due to the 1.5 meter snowfall (5 feet). Present TV news (4:29 pm local time at +3 GMT) show how theses operations are being carried. Snowfalls were on all Argentina, as it happened in July 2007 –except in the humid northeast or Mesopotamia.
Of course this is weather, but weather is inscribed in climate, and repeated weather events along a long enough period become climate. I hope you’ll keep informed about the late frosts we’ll see in Argentina well into November (as it did back in 2007, when a tremendous frost destroyed more than 50% of crops in Buenos Aires province. Corn, barley, soybean wheat, and other crops had from 50 to 100% losses on the frost occurred on Nov. 14th –just 40 days away from summer.
And TV news all over the country are speaking only about the huge snowfalls, abnormal cold weather –even forgetting the A1(H1N1) fake pandemia!
E.M.Smith (03:08:00) :Thanks E.M., your testimony is demolishing, as the demolishing as the snowed palm trees above.
Here in southern New England has been very cool. A trend that started in 2006 as I noticed and has grown stronger yearly. I did not even set up my air conditioner in my room, thats how cool its been, and rainy. Also this year it has not hit 90+ at all,zero. Which is strange since I’ve been here, about 30 days(1 month) would be 90+ degree range during summer time. Usual temp this summer have been mid-high 70s and low 80s and lots of rainy days. Winters have been getting brutal, from my memory we had about 2 months of snow cover for 2008/09 winter. I will keep a written track this year.
I would like to add, I think its great folks form around the world are sharing their observations in their regions weather. It obviously gotten cooler globally.
Joe, you are making me a bit ill with that 2 months of snow cover. In 07 and 08, it started snowing in Oct/Nov. The snow finished melting the next April making that 6 or 7 months of snow cover. Southern New England is north of me. This winter we had a melt in December and then again in Feb, both times with fresh snow after the melt but at least that melt made it easier for the chipmunks to get out of their burrows meaning they showed up at the usual time, the end of Feb. The year before they showed up in May. What I am seeing now is very different. The chipmunks start preparing their winter beds in the fall. I saw Bandit, our oldest chipmunk with leaves in her mouth, for her winter bed, mid July. The babies who came out of the burrow in May and are not usually friendly until the fall are frantic now, looking for food. I was wondering why I have baby chipmunks jumping on my chair and me until I thought that maybe they know something I do not. I will have to see when the squirrels get their winter coats.
Eduardo Ferreyra (12:43:57) :
Thank you for the kind update. I hope there have been and there will be no fatalities caused by this snowstorm. I further hope, that the crop will make it with minimal losses, too.
According to this message, the cold in south America has killed at least 40 people:
http://en.rian.ru/natural/20090727/155640735.html
Ron, the 40 deaths were in Argentina alone. During this winter there has been other polar waves that reached Peru and have illed aaabout 116 children until now.
Right in this moment there is an unusual and huge snowstorm in Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego. All roads are blocked, all schools, and shops are also closed because streets are covered with 3 feet of snow and no vehicles are moving in town. Snowplows are doing what they can but it is not enough. Read it in La Nacion newspaper:
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1155546&pid=6965466&toi=6263
The rest of the country is also under a polar wave that is similar to the one in 2007 –and though there will be a brief relief until friday, next week is forecasted another polar wave (or MPH) of similar characteristics. This cold is getting boring.
Nice post. There were many upcoming civilizations that sprung up like the Canaris, the Norte Chico, Amazon, Cara Supe, Chavin, Moche of which Inca also called the land of the four regions was the significantly urbane.To get matters adequately sorted out, the Treaty Of Tordesil has was signed in 1494. Lima founded in 1535 as the capital of Peru was the epicentre for all the findings and conquests. For more details refer http://www.journeyidea.com/guide-to-south-america/