More news from the weather is not climate department. A historic winter storm event in South America is underway (July 22nd, 2009) meanwhile in the northern hemisphere, fresh snow in the Alps in July. – Anthony
Guest Post By Alexandre Aguiar / MetSul Weather Center
A major and historic winter storm is underway at this Wednesday morning in Argentina. Snow is falling in many parts of the country and in many areas not used to winter precipitation. Local news reports indicate snow already have been observed in the provinces of Mendoza, San Luis, San Juan, Cordoba, La Pampa and Buenos Aires.
In Bahia Blanca, a coastal city in the Southern part of the Buenos Aires, the snow storm is heavy and local authorities describe it as the worst snow event in 50 years. Roads are already blocked by snow and ice in the regional. TN news channel reports some areas of the Sierra de La Ventana could pick up even 3 feet of snow, unimaginable to the region.
Early this Wednesday afternoon, satellite pictures were showing a band of clouds advancing to the North and snow precipitation could no be ruled out in the capital Buenos Aires. In July 9th and 10th 2007 it snowed in the city of Buenos Aires for the first time in 89 years and it could snow again just two years later. Snow was also reported in the capital of Chile Santiago. MetSul Weather Center is not ruling out snow also in Uruguay.
Nevertheless a “hot red noaa spot” on the sea in front of Buenos Aires:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomw.7.23.2009.gif
btw, it also shows a cold anomaly developing just along the equator line, Nino 1+2 area.
That Global Warming sure gets around, don’t it?
This is an image of Vent, at 1900m (6233 feet) in the Tyrol, Austrian Alps:
http://tr.im/tI1C
(sorry about the quality, is a mobile phone camera)
Snow storms in the Alps in summer are not uncommon, but I was surprised to see so much accumulation so low.
Here you can see a hindcast of temperature and precipitation for the last two weeks in the region:
http://www.meteoexploration.com/mountain/hindcast.html
It should be said that now it is southern winds (Foehn) and very warm
“The Great Lakes region, Prairies and Maritimes have felt the cool and wet rejection of this season the most.
A few facts: Toronto, Montreal and Winnipeg have been 2 to 4 degrees below average almost day in, day out since the season began. Halifax nearly doubled its average June rainfall. Days with more cloud cover than sun were common nearly all across Canada.”
From an article on the Weather Network:
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=chrisstclair_badsummer_20_07_2009?ref=ccbox_weather_bottom_title
I hear the great Atnas Sualc is winging his way from the South Pole, on
a sleigh pulled by 1000 Penguins.
He’s saying, Ooh, Ooh, Ooh, and plans on taking toys away from children all over the souther hemisphere.
The GRINCH who stole Global Warming!
Antarctic ice extent is above mean level this winter.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/antarctic.seaice.color.000.png
Why is AMSU through the roof?
Direct quote from my father-in-law who is 65: “This is the coolest summer I ever remember….”
That was 2 days after we broke a 99 year old record low.
Also on the weather is not climate front, our friend Nate Silver offers a modest wager that some who hedge on the colder side might be interested in taking up:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/07/challenge-to-climate-change-skeptics.html
Mark Hugoson (10:10:14) :
Thanks for the links, very useful.
Sorry, small mistake, the thanks was for Patagon (09:57:29) :
I think these events are good to highlight but I fear they will be greatly overshadowed soon by the arctic sea ice decline. The ice loss is starting to accelerate and the SST anomaly chart shows bright red 5+ degree anomalies completely circling the arctic.
This does not bode well, I fear the damage will be done before evidence that we are in a natural cycle has time to surface. Once draconian legislation is passed 1) It will never be fully repealed 2) The concept can no longer be disproven. Once we have taken some action, they can simply claim (and program their models to show) that it was them who saved us. No one can ‘prove’ what would have happened had we done nothing so it will be impossible to argue.
Here Buenos Aires at minus 3 degrees celsius (feeling like -5°C):
http://www.clarin.com/diario/2009/07/23/um/m-01963976.htm
Patagon (09:57:29) :
All this “global warming” is astonishing. “Surely it is a matter of soot aerosols associated with CO2 pollution producing some negative feedbacks...”(a global warming new age scientist)
“That Global Warming sure gets around, don’t it?”
It does indeed. I’ve lived in Dubai, on and off, (mostly on) for many (30!) years. The last three years have been very strange; coolish (this year down around 4C from the normal summer average) more rain than usual, cooler winds.
Normally, in summertime we don’t use our water heaters, and find that even at 6 a.m. the water from the roof tank is almost too hot to bear; this year, and to a lesser extent last year, it is almost too cool.
I know “weather is not climate” but…………
TABER CORN, THE SWEETEST, BEST-TASTING CORN IN THE UNIVERSE , IS TWO WEEKS LATE THIS YEAR DUE TO COLD WEATHER.
ENOUGH OF THIS AGW NONSENSE.
IF THIS IS GLOBAL WARMING, WE NEED MORE OF IT.
******************************
Harry Brook, a crop specialist with Alberta Agriculture, said our spring hasn’T been very kind to most crops in the province.
“Almost all the crops in the province are way behind where they should be, by about a two-week average,” he said. “Canola should be flowering by the end of June, but we’re only seeing it flower right now.
“Corn is known as a C4 plant, which means it’s most optimal development is under hot conditions. We haven’t really had any hot weather. And when the temperature goes below 5 C, like it did at night in the spring, corn shuts down.”
This is the second year running that Mother Nature has scorned the sweet corn. Hailstorms in July 2008 cut down the harvest of Taber corn by 50 per cent last year, and what wasn’t destroyed was delayed by two weeks because of colder than normal growing conditions. The corn that was available for sale was then marked up at a higher than usual price because of demand.
“(Last year) it hailed out 130 acres totally, then another 110 acres, it stripped real good,” Valgardson said of his own harvest. “I got some out of it, but maybe 10, 20 per cent.”
Asked if the crop is getting tougher to grow as weather patterns seem to become less predictable, Valgardson answers simply, “Some. It depends on the year.
“Three years ago I started Aug. 1 and finished Sept. 8,” he said. “Last year with the hail, I never started until Aug. 28. I only had about seven, eight days of corn. This year, I expect to start around the 15th of August. And I’ll probably harvest for about five weeks.”
Here in NE Oregon we are finally having real summer.Dry highs in the 90F.
range.but it is supposed to cool abit with some dry Thunder Storms.scored some decent plate glass yesterday-going on my expanded greenhouse…
I feel we may see what the Boreal Winter is going to be like…
Got Coal?
Chaiten volcano in Chile perhaps?
Sorry Anthony,
after the “Snow in Buenos Aires”, which turned out to have happened in 2007, and the “IPCC lead author” Tom Tripps, who turned out to have contributed to the guidelines on CO2 bookkeeping which is not part of the assessment reports, I have to ask:
– Which Wednesday are we talking about
– Is this projection or actually happening
I have checked a few Argentinian webcams (there are few available to English searches). Right now it is dry and clear in:
– Buenos Aires
– Tucumán
– Ushuaia
We have heavy rain in
– Mar del Plata.
No snow anywhere that I could find.
Now to Bahia Blanca
– windfinder reports maximum wind speed of 6bft, a strong breeze
– windfinder forecasts above freezing temperatures, low precipitation, air pressure between 1010 and 1020 mbar
So, please, what is this post about?
REPLY: Weather.
Reply 2: Yesterday ~ ctm
REPLY3: as reported by MetSul in Argentina, perhaps you missed that.
Yep. July WILL be the warmest month….. EVER!
The Central Valley here in California is experiencing one of its longest runs of 100 + temps I can remember. This condition is slated to last into August. No high temp records challenged so far though. Interestingly, the humidity levels have been lower on average this summer that previous summers. I have worked outdoors in this area since 1990, and have a pretty good feel for the pulse and tendencies of the seasons. lived in the Valley since 1978, and this summer reminds me of that one. Im not saying the humidity of past summers had been intolerable, just higher than usual. I moved from Dallas to here in 78, and know what high humidity is, thank you very much. We took off from Dallas at about 7:30 and the pilot said the temp was 74 degrees. When we landed in Fresno 2 1/2 hours later, they announced that it was 86 outside. I thought they had made a mistake because it felt soooooo much nicer than that.
Yeah, well, that’s South America. It’s probably a “hot” snow. Y’all see that newest sunspeck? It’s right in the dead center. Could it be an old cycle spot?
It aint about to get warmer either!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp8.html
Nogw
for SSTs, I use:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
To me it looks like the El Nino is stalling. I’ve been watching for about a month now.
and while it snows in Buenos Aires, Senator John Kerry is at it again about an ice-free Arctic:
This is from his opening comments 21 July here:
http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2009/KerryStatement090721p.pdf
Chairman Kerry Opening Statement At Hearing On Climate Change And Global Security.
[Excerpt]
“We are here today to discuss a grave and growing threat to global stability, human security, and America’s national security. As you will hear from all of today’s witnesses, the threat of catastrophic climate change is not an academic concern for the future.
“It is already upon us, and its effects are being felt worldwide, right now. Earlier this year, a 25-mile wide ice bridge connecting the Wilkins Shelf to the Antarctic landmass shattered, disconnecting the Shelf from the Antarctic continent. In four years, the Arctic is projected to experience its first ice-free summer—not in 2030, but in 2013. The threat is real and fast approaching.
Just as 9-11 taught us the painful lesson that oceans could not protect us from terror, today we are deluding ourselves if we believe that climate change will stop at our borders.
“Fortunately, America’s most trusted security voices—including those here today—have been sounding the alarm. In 2007, eleven former Admirals and high-ranking generals issued a seminal report from the Center for Naval Analysis, where Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn serves on the Military Advisory Board. They warned that climate change is a ―threat multiplier‖ with ―the potential to create sustained natural and humanitarian disasters on a scale far beyond those we see today.‖
“This is because climate change injects a major new source of chaos, tension, and human insecurity into an already volatile world. It threatens to bring more famine and drought, worse pandemics, more natural disasters, more resource scarcity, and human displacement on a staggering scale. Places only too familiar with the instability, conflict, and resource competition that often create refugees and IDPs, will now confront these same challenges with an ever growing population of EDPs—environmentally displaced people. We risk fanning the flames of failed-statism, and offering glaring opportunities to the worst actors in our international system. In an interconnected world, that endangers all of us.”
Geez!
You can read the entire statement at the site I indicated at the beginning of this comment.
Here in North Carolina, the past week and half has been unusually cool. That is because the temperatures have been upper 80’s instead mid 90’s. Of course, being the south, the good times won’t last. This whole summer has been abnormally comfortable in that the humidity has been way down. In reality, the weather has felt like late Spring and early Autumn except in early June.
Well, now the leaves are starting to change, and rapidly at that. It was hotter and drier last year, so that isn’t the reason why the leaves are changing. And some trees are showing color. When leaves fall off because of drought, they are brown and not red or yellow.
Although I do not know why the leaves are changing so early, I have a bad bad feeling it is going to be a brutal winter. People in North Carolina don’t know how to handle snow. However, because of the dynamics of the warm gulf stream current which shape and mold the Outer Banks and the Appalachian mountains, quite often winter weather starts off as freezing rain and sleet. So what happens is that ice covers the roads. Several years ago, we had so much sleet that it looked white like snow. Another year, it snowed several inches and then sleet fell on top of that. So much sleet fell, that it was able to support my weight on top of the snow. It sounded like I was walking on a hollow wooden floor. I have a bad bad those days are coming again. I run my own business. If I don’t work, I don’t get paid.
Are there any tree specialists out there? Can you tell me the possible reasons for leaves to change early?
Mike Strong
Like Gore, Kerry was defeated by Bush, and this appears to have affected his mind.
Most of us wish for extremes because normal can be somewhat dull. This is simply wild! Hah. Events such as this are the reason I studied meteorology. They evoke emotions! Which are usually wonderment and awe…but occassionally they can be frustration or annoyance as well. May things never be dull!
Funny, you put up that old story about the past similar event just a few days ago. Who says no one can do anything about the weather? LOL! I blame you Anthony!
REPLY: Well that’s what the original intent was all about, the weather was shaping up for a repeat. But as I reported in several comments in the 2007 story the publishing tool that allowed me to publish the story on schedule got messed up, the story wasn’t finished, but accidentally went live before I could do so. I had made several scheduled stories that morning, (to autopost while traveling) but ran out of time and was running late. I had planned to edit it later, as I was just about to leave for the airport. So I never got to finish it because people had already made comments on it so I just left it given my travel schedule. OF course that got all sorts of nimrods like “bluegrue” and Romm all upset. Its funny because Romm made an extraordinary boo boo, and quoted skeptic astronaut Harrison Schmidt in his botched attempt to smear me. So everyone’s all bent out of shape now. From my perspective, it’s amusing, especially since the weather is now again turning to snow in Argentina. – Anthony
RE: Wade (12:39:12) :
Here in North Carolina, the past week and half has been unusually cool. That is because the temperatures have been upper 80’s instead mid 90’s. Of course, being the south, the good times won’t last. This whole summer has been abnormally comfortable in that the humidity has been way down. In reality, the weather has felt like late Spring and early Autumn except in early June.
Well, now the leaves are starting to change, and rapidly at that. It was hotter and drier last year, so that isn’t the reason why the leaves are changing. And some trees are showing color. When leaves fall off because of drought, they are brown and not red or yellow.
=========================
A few trees in Nor Cal are also starting to change. Similar to your case drought would not explain it, we had a good rainy ending to the past rainy season and the season ended later than normal.
In South Africa we are also experiencing a major cold front which is also bringing snow tonight along the entire Drakensberg belt all the way down to the Southern Cape, Extremely cold temperatures are being felt all over the country and on the news, images of snow were shown; roads are being closed and lodges are hoping for a tourist increase as a “winter wonderland” settles over many parts.
It is possible that the cold front is a part of the system which is affecting South America.
Winter is hitting hard in the Southern hemisphere it seems!
Pierre Gosselin (12:31:47) :
Thanks!, however how do you explain that, in this case yellow, spot in front of Bs.Aires?, it is there from a long time ago.
Gary (11:47:20) :
Yeah, well, that’s South America. It’s probably a “hot” snow. Y’all see that newest sunspeck? It’s right in the dead center. Could it be an old cycle spot?
Whatever that ? spot is, there’s a lot more of them in this minimum than the last one.
Equator-hugging or lone-wolf Tiny Tims producing penumbras only.
Thanks for the clarification in the replies.
Next time “bluegrue”, try not to be such a smartass when you post snark. It may backfire on you like this one did.
BTW readers, as far as I can tell, “blugrue” is simply “Flanagan” repackaged.
I’ve added some photos and a front page newspaper from Jul23rd 2009 to help people like “blugrue” that can’t seem yo figure out the news articles or find relevant photos on their own.
here’s a relevant news story courtesy of Charles the Moderator
http://momento24.com/en/2009/07/22/buenos-aires-province-snow-falls-in-the-south/
Ryan P: The acceleration only has lasted for half a day as of now (the graph updates twice a day), one half-day isn’t cause for alarm, please wait to see if it’s sustained over several days.
Intellicast’s International forecast graphic shows Canada finally getting summer temps. Siberia due to get a cooling down from its recent warm episode, Europe warm but apparently not like the 2006 heatwave, and the usual hot regions being………well, hot. NOAA is showing SST’s seemingly down a bit from June, the TAO site shows El Nino not getting much of anywhere. Unisys shows the PDO cold area mostly in place and SST’s down from June.
Here in Kansas the second half of July so far is either very seasonable or below average, Intellicast predicts it will get to the mid 90’s tomorrow and that’s the warmest it will get for the next 7 days if they’re right. (93-94 is the average high around this time of year for us)
What’s going on down there is a taste of what we are going to be facing in the North this coming winter.
Currently under a big high-pressure dome for over a week, instead of 110 degrees every day it’s around 100. Cools off fast at night also. I’m sure GISStemp is having a field day transferring all the fire-weather station data to it’s computer model.
Look quickly before it goes! Cycle 23 is back on the equator!
Here in New Hampshire, in late July, I have on jeans, flannel shirt, and a heavy-weight shirt or jacket over that. The weird thing is, for this summer, this is not unusual. I’m not complaining, mind you, as I prefer it to be cooler. In June, and so far in July, we have had many days of cloudy, cool and rainy weather, and even the sunny days have not been all that warm, some having a Fall feel to them. Are the trees noticing, and responding accordingly? I believe so. I have been seeing some bright red leaves on the forest floor, when I have been walking about, and a wild cherry tree in our yard is dropping yellow leaves. I can’t say whether or not this is unusual, but it certainly seems so.
Just more proof of global warming…NOW GIVE ME YOUR MONEY!!
The locust trees changing here in western NC are usually one of the first signs that ‘summer is almost done’ and they started changing three weeks ago. It’s been more similar to early fall for the last month or so. I’m starting to wonder if we might have a ‘real winter’ this year.
From Perfil . com
It’s snowed in half the country and predicted to be colder
See also The Weather Forecast for Argentina Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
In what possible way is this post supposed to be interesting? It snowed in the southern hemisphere in winter. And?
I’m just praying for an impossibly hard cold December in Copenhagen.
So? Haven’t you ever heard the phrase ‘it’s too cold to snow’. Must have been too cold to snow in previous winters. 😛
Perfil . com Argentina Snowfall: Picture Gallery
RW : It does not snow in BA (never) certainly not in Salta (in tropics). Does it snow in Miami in winter?
Interesting the multiple reports of leaf turning. This is something. Fall is probably here.
RE: RW (14:43:50) :
In what possible way is this post supposed to be interesting? It snowed in the southern hemisphere in winter. And?
=================
Snow in northern Argentina is highly abnormal. You do not know this? Get educated.
Still triple digits in South Central Texas.
We did get 0.018″ of rain a couple of days ago.
How many drops in a rain gauge = 0.018″?
Warmest June on record in the southern hemisphere and this is the best you can do?
South American’s will enjoy a bit of cooler weather as this region has been experiencing very large positive temperature anomalies until recently (ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/jun_wld.html).
REPLY: Ok that does it. I challenge YOU to write an article doing “the BEST YOU CAN DO” using your real name and connection to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. I’ll give it front page exposure. Take the challenge or shut up. I’m tired of your harassment (from a government employee). If you have something constructive to say, say it, and put your name to it. The offer to give you a guest post using your real name and association is real, though I doubt you have the courage to accept it much less write a cognizant article. Otherwise my tolerance for your comments and your harassment as “DJ” because you don’t like how I run this blog is over. Read the policy page, carefully. – Anthony Watts
How many drops in a rain gauge = 0.018″?
Probably about as many licks as it takes to get to the center of a Tootsie Pop!!! 🙂
Anagrams
CLIMATE CHANGE?
not really, unless you mean colder…
CHEMICAL AGENT?
co2’s effects are overblown, by admission…
MAGNETIC LEACH?
yes, everyone that is trying to make money on the lie…
MEGA TECHNICAL?
not really, anyone can tell it’s a lie…
TECHNICAL GAME?
not at all, same old medicine show…
THENCE, MAGICAL?
yes the modern magicians can see 100 years hence…
CANCEL THE MAGIC?
yes, send the clowns back home.
No to Cap and Rape…
Here is one place to see where it has been hot or cold of late:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_30b.rnl.html
Menu of all options:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/
AlexB (14:54:26) :
So? Haven’t you ever heard the phrase ‘it’s too cold to snow’. Must have been too cold to snow in previous winters. 😛
What has happened is that, in the last few days there has been more humidity which with low temps=snow.
One of the problems that I observe in making country wide comparisons of the current climate and the possibility of a cooling in the future in United States is that there are many diverse climate conditions here. NCDC has divided US into 9 regions .The average annual temperatures for these regions range from 63 F to 43 F and the winter temperatures range from 47 F to 17 F. One can divide the country down the middle horizontally. The annual temperature went down for all the individual regions in 2008 and the annual temperature for the entire Contiguous US has gone down a total 2 degrees F during the last two years and is now at the average temperature level for the last 100 years for the country as a whole [no global warming?]. The winter temperature for 2009 for Contiguous US went up by about 0.37degrees F having dropped about 3.49 F degrees since 2000 It is just slightly [0.71 F] above the average for the winter of 2009.
When it comes to winter temperatures there is a different picture regionally. The winter temperatures for most of southern regions have gone up for the lasts 1-2 years and are above normal. The winter temperatures for most of the northern regions have gone down for the last 3-4 years and are below normal. I note that the winter temperature for EAST NORTH CENTRAL alone has dropped an amazing 11.9 degrees F since 1998. So while the northern regions already feel the cooling happening especially during the past 3-4 winters, the southern regions are still above normal with warming winter temperatures still. So mixed messages about cool and warm weather in different parts of US will continue for a while. . http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html
Adam, this is the map I was going by:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo&hot.html
EIther there is some error or it appears that it is 4-5 degree positive SST anomaly around the remaining Arctic ice. If that is true it could lead to a new record low summer extent. I don’t want that to happen, and certainly don’t think it is indicative of the entire global climate or the direction of global temperatures. Also, the El Nino has left a pretty nasty record breaking spike on UAH channel 5 potentially making July 2009 the hottest month overall-ever.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002
If the alarmists get either, or both, of those pieces of propaganda the momentum to sell out the public will be almost unstoppable.
Apparently, there are a lot of places to go skiing.
http://www.ifyouski.com/news/newsarticle/?ObjectID=8790516
More details if you follow the link.
Saas Fee would be sweet. I wish I had the time and $$$ to go there right now.
Columbus Dispatch, Columbus, Ohio Thursday July 23, 2009
“Second coolest July on record? Columbus is on track to have its second-coolest July on record, according to the National Weather Service.”
“The city’s coldest July on record, 1891,….”
From the business section (same date)
“Cold weather put chill on Ohio’s peach crop.”
“We haven’t had a full crop in four years.”
Bahia Blanca
The beach truly is white, with snow!!
No sunspots, more cosmic ray bombardment, increased humidity and, in the southern hemisphere winter, this equates to snow.
This northern hemisphere winter will have all the tongues wagging as we continue our slide into a deep minima.
Ryan P: Those red regions have been there late into the melt season for the last few years at least and I would think in many of the other years, and yet for last year that didn’t equal record melt, there’s also the infamous Bering Sea hotspot which other SST data sources show it doesn’t neccesarily exist.
Urederra (17:17:54) : * Canada’s summer ski season ends this weekend.
Will it be a year without a summer in Canada?
Too bad there isn’t 79 billion put in to studying further Svensmarks finding instead of it having been put in to global warming like was done by the Obama Administration!! I think we would suddenly find cosmic ray believers, even a cosmic ray ‘consensus’, if it was!
@ Ryan P
Ryan P wrote:
“EIther there is some error or it appears that it is 4-5 degree positive SST anomaly around the remaining Arctic ice. If that is true it could lead to a new record low summer extent. I don’t want that to happen, and certainly don’t think it is indicative of the entire global climate or the direction of global temperatures. Also, the El Nino has left a pretty nasty record breaking spike on UAH channel 5 potentially making July 2009 the hottest month overall-ever.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002
If the alarmists get either, or both, of those pieces of propaganda the momentum to sell out the public will be almost unstoppable.”
Wouldn’t a record low Arctic sea ice extent or monthly global temperature records sway you a bit more towards the theory of man-made global warming? I don’t know if there will be a record low sea ice extent in the Arctic, but one can hardly call what is happening up there natural variability, can one? If only for the speed at which it is occurring.
Anyway, too soon to tell now. But what you call propaganda are to me actually quite convincing indicators of global warming continuing. On the other hand, if an El Nino develops and 2010 doesn’t come in the top 3 of hottest years globally, I will be swayed more to the skeptical side. We’ll just have to see, I guess.
Wade (12:39:12) :
“Here in North Carolina, the past week and half has been unusually cool….”
You are not imagining the cooler weather here in North Carolina. May was much cooler (no 98 degree weather like we had in 2004) and we are not getting the above 95 degree weather we usually do here in the middle of the state. So far we have not had ANY above 95 degree weather while in 2004 we had 3 days at 98 by the end of May.
The really strange thing is my sheep lambed two months early! I got lambs last November instead of in January. Now I am getting a second set of lambs, my fifth in two weeks was born yesterday! Goat bucks and rams come into a seasonal “rut” just like a deer buck. If it is too hot they are sterile, so I have independent validation of cooler temperatures last summer.
Also last year at the end of July my horses started to grow winter coats!!! It will be interesting to see if I get winter coats early again this year
Neven:
C’mon, Nevin, you’re smarter than that. Of course it’s natural variability, in this case, in the Arctic region. Polar sea ice is primarily a function of wind and ocean currents.
But we’re talking about global warming here. Let’s look at what’s going on at the other end of the planet: click & click & click & click
Global sea ice continues to increase [see top chart of global ice in the 3rd click above] because the Antarctic ice is growing faster than the Arctic ice is declining.
Where’s the global warming?
I wish I could say that it was only 2 to 4 degrees below normal in Toronto. It has been 5 to 10 degrees C below normal all year. I do not see that trend line getting even close to normals all through August on my Weather Network. It is cold, dark and rainy, just disgusting weather. I don’t think that having the heat on July 23rd is normal. I thought last summer was bad. Last summer I got the heat off for a month. This summer it does not look like that is going to happen. As nasty as this is for us, this is the third summer in a row that crop yields will be below normal. That situation cannot continue forever. We will see an exodus of people from the north when the US and Canadian cap and trade bills go into effect. We cannot afford to stay here and heat our homes for 12 months. I guess I am lucky, I have somewhere else to go.
Neven (17:47:43) :
“I don’t know if there will be a record low sea ice extent in the Arctic, but one can hardly call what is happening up there natural variability, can one? If only for the speed at which it is occurring.”
Neven, get a grip. The truth of the matter is that we don’t know what constitutes “natural variability”. Neither you nor I have a clue as to whether or not we “…can hardly call what is happening up there natural variability…” but I am not inclined to jump to the conclusion that a .0001% concentration change in a trace gas is going to cause global catastrophe.
This blog has been accumulating anecdotal evidence of cooler than normal temperatures this summer…. I know Southern New England has been abnormally cool, and yet June is depicted as the hottest June on record. I’m more inclined to question the data than switch to believing in AGW…. especially when it is being promoted by misanthropic Club of Rome neo-Malthusians.
cyr (14:16:00) :
“The locust trees changing here in western NC are usually one of the first signs that ’summer is almost done’”-My black locust and others are doing the same thing.
The darn thing just leafed out in mid-may-late.
NE Oregon,LaGrande,USDA z5a-heading for z4.We had our first warmist surface in our local paper in some months-a little summer and they number like hair off a shedding springer-one of which now wants a walkie….
I’m sure the equivalent of NOAA in Argentina (like the Departmento Meterologico Argentinas) has all of BA in bright Red at least 6-8 degrees above normal. Dios mio, que calor!
75 and rain in NY today. 2nd coldest July on record so far. Cold tonight in So New England, had to all wear jackets outside.
Anybody noticed also – no named tropical storms or hurricanes through today? Wasn’t supposed to be a Katrina per week??????
Thank goodness we’re all going to get taxed out of our minds to fix this out of control climate problem.
The wind driven low Arctic sea ice level in 2007 exposed an extra 2 million square km of Arctic water to the cooling effect of bitter Arctic winter conditions, not for just one winter but for 2008 as well. 2009 will probably be not far off from 2008.
Since It takes a lot of time for the semi-permanent portion of the Arctic ice cap to grow, we can expect it to take several more years to expand back to normal.
I have no data to prove it, but I would suspect that the last two years has seen more thermal loss from the Arctic than the 30 year average.
Buffalo set to have its coldest July since records starting being kept from the airport and maybe the third coldest since records kept for the area since about 1881 (or so). But that’s just weather, right?
And that annoying SC23 keeps on showing up. Still has a faint spot showing, but don’t see any notation for it from SWPC, though Catania did catch it early this morning.
Anthony, in relation to DJ.
You will never get an unbiased solicitation out of the Australian B.O.M. or C.S.I.R.O.
Both organizations are full of agenda driven “scientific” staff.
Mark Hugoson (10:10:14) :…….
LOL…. I laughed so hard, I fell off my chair…. You have distilled the essence of the absurd sir…. I commend you.
>BTW readers, as far as I can tell, “blugrue” is simply “Flanagan” repackaged.
Flanagan and I may have in common, that we post replies that go against the majority opinion on this blog, but that’s it. It’s two persons you are dealing with.
At the time I posted the blog post had less info to go by and referred to Portuguese language coverage (which I don’t speak) that amongst others mentioned 2007. I also called up weather.com and others (and no, I do not always post all searching that I have done) and found nothing that indicated the snowfalls. I told you, Anthony, why I asked. If all you can see in that is snark so be it.
There appears to be a correlation between snow fall outside Britain and the height of carbon taxes in Britain.
So, now you know what causes it. Nothing to do with Global Cooling!
Was Gore doing a fly by? heheh.
Can I ask a doofy question? Of the two ice records, AMSR and SSMI which do you consider more accurate?
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/Arctic-ice-concentration-maps-from-SSMI-and-AMSRE
And is the difference a difference in something like pixel count?
DJ (15:24:58) : Warmest June on record in the southern hemisphere and this is the best you can do?
South American’s will enjoy a bit of cooler weather as this region has been experiencing very large positive temperature anomalies until recently
And here we have a perfect example of the nuttiness of the AGW crowd. Why believe the facts on the ground when you can believe a computer generated data food product? Perhaps facts on the ground ought to be believed because a standard part of testing computer programs is called the “sanity check”. You first, before anything else, ask “Is the output sane and reasonably close to reality?” Or put in the negative “Is the output so outrageously out of touch with reality as to be insane?”
This is before you do much of anything else. Once in 89 year snow is bad enough, but twice in a couple of years? That means “warmer” fails the “sanity check”. And you want to believe “its warmer”?
So please, take your anomalous anomaly maps and look at them real hard. Then look at the facts (and snow) on the ground. Then ask yourself the simple question: “Which is real, the computer data food product, or the snow?” Once you have a grip on reality, then ask the question “Given that the snow and widespread reports of cold induced crop reductions are real, what does this say about the truthyness of the anomalous anomaly maps?”
I know it’s painful to come to grips with the fact that you are believing in a fantasy. I know it’s hard to tell an old friend that they have “a problem”. But the sooner to “go there” the quicker you can start your recovery.
To be blunt:
It is cold and snowing a lot in the southern hemisphere.
It is NOT hot this “summer” in the northern hemisphere.
Many places in the north are reporting “summer” more like spring / fall.
The only possible conclusion is that it’s cold, and getting colder.
This means the computer products are broken. Seriously broken.
There is a natural, roughly 30 year, weather cycle, and it’s turned cold.
AGW is dead, it just doesn’t know it yet.
The time to “distance yourself” from AGW is now.
The longer you wait, the more painful it will be.
Never blindly trust computer models.
Ever.
(I have 36 years experience programming and managing computers. I have a Community College Teaching Credential in computer science. I know computers. I’ve built several from scratch including putting together a 12 processor Sun from “piece parts” i.e. cpu’s not on the boards, memory in shipping boxes and I’ve installed and configured more operating systems than I can count on everything from PCs to Cray Supercomputers. I have managed the build, quality control / quality assurance, and shipment of a compiler tool chain through several product cycles. Oh, and one of my software projects got 4 software patents. It is my professional opinion that the computer codes that create the data series and the climate models that turn that data into dire predictions of warming are seriously broken. Be advised, I have ported GIStemp to Linux and have it running in my living room. I’ve not just read the code, I’ve made it work… what is your opinion based on? …)
Neven (17:47:43) : I don’t know if there will be a record low sea ice extent in the Arctic, but one can hardly call what is happening up there natural variability, can one? If only for the speed at which it is occurring.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Shows the red (current year) line more or less “middle of the pack”. It looks to me like absolutely normal and well inside “natural variability” given that there are prior years lines on each side of the red line. The “speed” looks more or less average too.
Given the abnormally warm water near by, the average ice melt implies some cold offsetting the water. Like maybe the air gets cold first, and then the water cools off over a couple of years…
Looking at the picture of Bahia Blanca up above, I just noticed the Palm Trees in the road divider (right edge) and center of shot. Palm trees usually don’t grow in the snow all that much… It would be interesting to find out the species / variety. It will have a known lower limit for temperatures…
Any good atlas and many globes show the “limit of palms” line circling the globe in both hemispheres… Yeah, they can take a bit of snow, but not much.
July average highs in Papillion, NE are either 87 or 88. Easy month to compare. Actual temperature history is running decidedly cooler.
http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/USNE0382?from=dailyAvg_topnav_undeclared
So far in July, we are an average of 5.8F low.
Tim Clark (11:16:32) :
“Chaiten volcano in Chile perhaps?”
No Tim,
The ash plume of Chaitén Volcano reaches not high enough to generate anything but a local effect.
Only if a substantial amount of emissions reach the troposphere like we saw with Mount Redoubt and Sarychev Peak Volcano on june 12th which reached an altitude of 21 km, we will have notable effects.
Sarychev ejected a considerable amount of SO2 into the troposphere resulting in red skies, a lot of ash and water vapor causing noctilucent clouds all over the world.
A few trees in Nor Cal are also starting to change. Similar to your case drought would not explain it, we had a good rainy ending to the past rainy season and the season ended later than normal.
In Illinois, the cottonwoods are starting to drop leaves already, in July.
This summer’s weather in the Washington DC suburbs has been a good news/bad news sort of situation. Good in that our temperatures have been quite mild, in fact both June and July have been 3-4 degrees F below the UHI influenced normals. Where we generally would have had a number of 95 plus days, and maybe even one or two 100’s, we have barely made it above 90 and then only a few times. Low humidity, cool evenings, very pleasant all around. The bad side? I am a share holder in Dominion Virginia Power and air conditioning demands have been so reduced that customer consumption has dropped 14% from normal reducing their profits substantially. Might be a hit to the hoped for dividend this year.
I would say that actual power use is a more reliable metric than some of the less-than-well-sited temperature sensors found in this region. Since electricity use in winter and in summer is truly dependent upon how cold and warm it actually is rather than what a model is predicting.
Regards to all,
John
To Bluegrue (11.28:08):
I guess you have heard about the small town of Coronel Pringles, near Sierra de la Ventana, Buenos Aires province, at about 30°1’S – 61°20’W – Altitude: 247 m.a.s.l., they had -4.5ºC on July 16th, then when the snowstorm began two days ago they saw the biggest snowstorm ever. In fact, it was the FIRST one in their entire history. They were (and still are) isolated from the rest of the country and rescue operations had to be carried due to the 1.5 meter snowfall (5 feet). Present TV news (4:29 pm local time at +3 GMT) show how theses operations are being carried. Snowfalls were on all Argentina, as it happened in July 2007 –except in the humid northeast or Mesopotamia.
Of course this is weather, but weather is inscribed in climate, and repeated weather events along a long enough period become climate. I hope you’ll keep informed about the late frosts we’ll see in Argentina well into November (as it did back in 2007, when a tremendous frost destroyed more than 50% of crops in Buenos Aires province. Corn, barley, soybean wheat, and other crops had from 50 to 100% losses on the frost occurred on Nov. 14th –just 40 days away from summer.
And TV news all over the country are speaking only about the huge snowfalls, abnormal cold weather –even forgetting the A1(H1N1) fake pandemia!
E.M.Smith (03:08:00) :Thanks E.M., your testimony is demolishing, as the demolishing as the snowed palm trees above.
Here in southern New England has been very cool. A trend that started in 2006 as I noticed and has grown stronger yearly. I did not even set up my air conditioner in my room, thats how cool its been, and rainy. Also this year it has not hit 90+ at all,zero. Which is strange since I’ve been here, about 30 days(1 month) would be 90+ degree range during summer time. Usual temp this summer have been mid-high 70s and low 80s and lots of rainy days. Winters have been getting brutal, from my memory we had about 2 months of snow cover for 2008/09 winter. I will keep a written track this year.
I would like to add, I think its great folks form around the world are sharing their observations in their regions weather. It obviously gotten cooler globally.
Joe, you are making me a bit ill with that 2 months of snow cover. In 07 and 08, it started snowing in Oct/Nov. The snow finished melting the next April making that 6 or 7 months of snow cover. Southern New England is north of me. This winter we had a melt in December and then again in Feb, both times with fresh snow after the melt but at least that melt made it easier for the chipmunks to get out of their burrows meaning they showed up at the usual time, the end of Feb. The year before they showed up in May. What I am seeing now is very different. The chipmunks start preparing their winter beds in the fall. I saw Bandit, our oldest chipmunk with leaves in her mouth, for her winter bed, mid July. The babies who came out of the burrow in May and are not usually friendly until the fall are frantic now, looking for food. I was wondering why I have baby chipmunks jumping on my chair and me until I thought that maybe they know something I do not. I will have to see when the squirrels get their winter coats.
Eduardo Ferreyra (12:43:57) :
Thank you for the kind update. I hope there have been and there will be no fatalities caused by this snowstorm. I further hope, that the crop will make it with minimal losses, too.
According to this message, the cold in south America has killed at least 40 people:
http://en.rian.ru/natural/20090727/155640735.html
Ron, the 40 deaths were in Argentina alone. During this winter there has been other polar waves that reached Peru and have illed aaabout 116 children until now.
Right in this moment there is an unusual and huge snowstorm in Ushuaia, Tierra del Fuego. All roads are blocked, all schools, and shops are also closed because streets are covered with 3 feet of snow and no vehicles are moving in town. Snowplows are doing what they can but it is not enough. Read it in La Nacion newspaper:
http://www.lanacion.com.ar/nota.asp?nota_id=1155546&pid=6965466&toi=6263
The rest of the country is also under a polar wave that is similar to the one in 2007 –and though there will be a brief relief until friday, next week is forecasted another polar wave (or MPH) of similar characteristics. This cold is getting boring.
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