[Updated] UAH, straight from the source, Dr. Roy Spencer who announced it on his blog today.
The was a lot of speculation last year that our global temperature would recover from the huge drops last spring. While there has been some recovery, the overall global temperature trend since 1999 has been the subject of much debate. What is not debatable is that the current global temperature anomaly, as determined by a leading authority on global satellite temperature measurements, says we have no departure from “normal” this month. Given the U.S. Senate is about to vote upon the most complex and costly plan to regulate greenhouse gases, while the EPA suppresses earlier versions of the chart shown below from a senior analyst, this should give some pause to those who are rational thinkers. For those that see only dogma, I expect this will be greeted with jeers. – Anthony
June 2009 Global Temperature Anomaly Update: 0.00 deg. C
Dr. Roy Spencer
July 3rd, 2009
YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 1 0.304 0.443 0.165 -0.036
2009 2 0.347 0.678 0.016 0.051
2009 3 0.206 0.310 0.103 -0.149
2009 4 0.090 0.124 0.056 -0.014
2009 5 0.045 0.046 0.044 -0.166
2009 6 0.001 0.032 -0.030 -0.003
June 2009 saw another — albeit small — drop in the global average temperature anomaly, from +0.04 deg. C in May to 0.00 deg. C in June, with the coolest anomaly (-0.03 deg. C) in the Tropics. The decadal temperature trend for the period December 1978 through June 2009 remains at +0.13 deg. C per decade.
NOTE: A reminder for those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here:
(1) Only use channel 5 (”ch05″), which is what we use for the lower troposphere and middle troposphere temperature products.
(2) Compare the current month to the same calendar month from the previous year (which is already plotted for you).
(3) The progress of daily temperatures (the current month versus the same calendar month from one year ago) should only be used as a rough guide for how the current month is shaping up because they come from the AMSU instrument on the NOAA-15 satellite, which has a substantial diurnal drift in the local time of the orbit. Our ‘official’ results presented above, in contrast, are from AMSU on NASA’s Aqua satellite, which carries extra fuel to keep it in a stable orbit. Therefore, there is no diurnal drift adjustment needed in our official product.
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You sure this is right? It’s like a sultry 83F out by my pool (Nashville)! The Earth is burning up! I just know it … [/sarcoff]
The article states; “The decadal temperature trend for the period December 1978 through June 2009 remains at +0.13 deg. C per decade.”
I don’t like applying straight lines to data that obviously doesn’t follow straight lines. But when I look at the MSU temperature data I see a step function at the El Nino year 1998. Prior to that the anomaly is zero. After that it is about .3C. And at the end the temp seems to be ramping downward. Its as if the El Nino drove the temperature temporarily to a higher plateau and now it is returning to pre-1998 levels.
Wait a minute!
YR…. MON GLOBE NH……. SH TROPICS
2009 6 0.001 0.032 -0.030 -0.003
If TROPICS is included in NH + SH the total anomaly is 0.002
If TROPICS isn’t included in NH + SH the total anomaly is – 0.001!
WUWT?
RE my 13:12 post, it appears from http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/readme.17Apr2009 that the base period is 1979-98, unless there has been a subsequent change buried in this readme file. That looks about right relative to the graph.
Why do I feel like some far-left wing nut will make a connection between this and Sarah Palin’s announcement today?
Take note of coincidence here: The rises are slow & painful, the drops are quick & merciful.
Just like the behavior of the Ice Ages, only in microcosm.
Reminds me of the repeating patterns found by boring down on the edges of the Mandelbrot set. Very natural like.
Two can play this game:
The global temps are falling faster than our graphs predicted.
The Deep Solar Minimum is lasting longer than expected.
Dive! Dive! Bow planes at 80 degrees.
Considering the peaks and valleys I would expect it go up somewhat again now, the temps. seem like they never will go down for over 4 consecutive months in most cases, if it drops for pretty much a 5th month that would be a surprise, it will then depend on when it goes up, then goes back down enough to continue the current downtrend.
Curiousgeorge (14:01:13) :
Sarah is preparing for the fallout from Cap & Crash.
She’ll be telling everyone “See, I told you so, you bet’cha”.
Hey, what do you get when you mix falling global temps with AGW?
A Green Energy Slushy.
David S (13:47:17)
I’m with you! Since what we DO know about climate is infinitesimal compared with what we DON’T know there seems no reason why that observation re the 1998 El Nino shouldn’t be correct.
Added to which we know we are coming off the back of a 30-year warming and that 30 years appears to be about the length of the cycle. So it would look very much as if the next twist is going to be downwards.
If I were a climatologist (as opposed to doom-monger with an agenda) I would at least be factoring that possibility into my calculations and suggesting to the politicians that we might just have been over-hyping the AGW+CO2 bit and perhaps it would be a good idea to hold off on doing things that are likely to make you look totally stoopid in five years time.
Curiousgeorge (14:01:13) : Would they really be able to contend that effect came before cause? Oh wait…
Interesting article today in American Thinker titled ‘Journalists protest Global Warming spin cycle‘. It notes ‘Controversy erupted this week at the World Conference of Science Journalists over the National Science Foundation’s “underwriting” of media projects.’
If only this could catch on more… Full article is at:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/07/journalists_protest_global_war.html
Mike
Ok… we can say that for June the temperature has been average !!!
What is the level of CO2 for June? Has it been rising still? Obviously, the rise of CO2 is related to climate change but is certainly not the driver.
No anomaly on cap and trade month, how funny is god?
I just fired up the grill, that ought to give some back.
Pamela Gray
Does carbon armageddon = carbongeddon ?
tallbloke (13:47:37) :
“Wait a minute!
YR…. MON GLOBE NH……. SH TROPICS
2009 6 0.001 0.032 -0.030 -0.003
If TROPICS is included in NH + SH the total anomaly is 0.002
If TROPICS isn’t included in NH + SH the total anomaly is – 0.001!
WUWT?”
I think you got some wires crossed. Either way, I would round it too. 1/1000 is really nothing.
Ray pointed top this selection of documents, and the most useful should be widel;y distributed:
http://joannenova.com.au/globalwarming/wong-fielding/7-carter-evans-franks-kininmonth-due-diligence-on-wong.pdf
It makes every rational point in a thoroughly methodical way. Send it to your Senators, Yanks.
Ray, It is above average for, oh … say … 1678. Get with the progrom!!! Mind you, I bel;ieve there was local warming in London in 1666
Why do I feel like some far-left wing nut will make a connection between this and Sarah Palin’s announcement today?
Because what else could it be?
Aron, Lancashire (UK) weather was back to its summer norm today – torrential downpour. I suspect that we’ve just experienced our “barbecue” summer. All three days of it. All courtesy of AGW of course… ;D
Ray (14:14:35) :
Follow ESRL:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Still rising, but the rate at which it does so is modulated by how fast and in what direction the sea surface temperature is changing. The rise itself is emission related, at least mostly. I was working on a simple way to relate these factors but I abandoned the project way back when. Maybe I’ll get back to it one day.
I would also add that while I agree it is not “the” driver, I think it plays some role (a minor, less than alarming one).
I think the big one here, if it happens….is a continuous drop or flatlining with a concurrent Nino for the rest of the year. It will become intolerable for the warmistas
To Dennis Wingo: This is what is known as the inversion process in estimation of temperature from microwave (or infra-red) satellites in general. There are a number of approaches to the problem to retrieve the vertical temperature profile from a set of observations. I will not go into the details, but I worked with the pioneering group at MIT who had microwave instruments on the Nimbus E and Nimbus F satellites in the 1970s. The real take home though is that the total brightness temperature of the TLT channel is the integral of the temperature in the atmosphere multiplied by the weighting function + the total microwave energy hitting the surface times the reflectivity of the surface and then reduced by the total opacity of the path from the surface + the temperature of the surface times (1-reflectivity) of the surface. In a quasi window channel like the TLT you are seeing the bottom of the atmosphere and the surface temperature. If the global surface and lower troposphere were to be get warmer, you would see it as you see it in the El Nino peak of the late 90s.
I have an off-topic question someone might be able to find me with. I remember reading an article, perhaps an interview, with James Hansen, in which he admited that the models were unreliable, and that we should refer to the observational data. He said he predicted a .15-.18C/decade rise in temperatures over the next century, I believe. He also mentioned that he took seriously the lack of new temperature highs during the last decade, and that if this doesn’t change soon it will mean a further revision of the models. Does anyone know of this article, where the source might be? I think I read it here, but it might be at some other site. Any help locating this would be helpful.
VG (14:41:49) : Nah, they will just say “This El Nino is similar, but different”:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6464
P Walker (14:29:58) :
Pamela Gray
Does carbon armageddon = carbongeddon ?
Karmageddon. As in,
“Sorry mate, my Karma just ran over your Dogma.