UAH Global Temperature Anomaly for June 09 ~ ZERO

[Updated] UAH, straight from the source, Dr. Roy Spencer who announced it on his blog today.

The was a lot of speculation last year that our global temperature would recover from the huge drops last spring. While there has been some recovery, the overall global temperature trend since 1999 has been the subject of much debate. What is not debatable is that the current global temperature anomaly, as determined by a leading authority on global satellite temperature measurements, says we have no departure from “normal” this month. Given the U.S. Senate is about to vote upon the most complex and costly plan to regulate greenhouse gases, while the EPA suppresses earlier versions of the chart shown below from a senior analyst, this should give some pause to those who are rational thinkers. For those that see only dogma, I expect this will be greeted with jeers. – Anthony

Click for larger image

June 2009 Global Temperature Anomaly Update: 0.00 deg. C

Dr. Roy Spencer

July 3rd, 2009

YR MON GLOBE   NH   SH   TROPICS

2009   1   0.304   0.443   0.165   -0.036

2009   2   0.347   0.678   0.016   0.051

2009   3   0.206   0.310   0.103   -0.149

2009   4   0.090   0.124   0.056   -0.014

2009   5   0.045   0.046   0.044   -0.166

2009   6   0.001   0.032   -0.030   -0.003

1979-2009 Graph (Spencer)

June 2009 saw another — albeit small — drop in the global average temperature anomaly, from +0.04 deg. C in May to 0.00 deg. C in June, with the coolest anomaly (-0.03 deg. C) in the Tropics. The decadal temperature trend for the period December 1978 through June 2009 remains at +0.13 deg. C per decade.

NOTE: A reminder for those who are monitoring the daily progress of global-average temperatures here:

(1) Only use channel 5 (”ch05″), which is what we use for the lower troposphere and middle troposphere temperature products.

(2) Compare the current month to the same calendar month from the previous year (which is already plotted for you).

(3) The progress of daily temperatures (the current month versus the same calendar month from one year ago) should only be used as a rough guide for how the current month is shaping up because they come from the AMSU instrument on the NOAA-15 satellite, which has a substantial diurnal drift in the local time of the orbit. Our ‘official’ results presented above, in contrast, are from AMSU on NASA’s Aqua satellite, which carries extra fuel to keep it in a stable orbit. Therefore, there is no diurnal drift adjustment needed in our official product.


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grayuk

Love it.
Thanks for the info.
P

Jeremy

I’m sure this will translate into something with the words “faster than expected” in it at Copenhagen.

timetochooseagain

An important note:
Generally, people seem to refer to the UAH data here:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
However, you will notice that Roy always reports in 3 digits, rather than two. For consistency (not that it makes a difference) these numbers should be used:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2
They are directly comparable (this is where Spencer’s values eventually show up) and they also match the digits used by RSS (3)
But it’s a minor point.

Dennis Wingo

Here is a question.
What is used to determine the height of a temperature measurement on the satellites?

Phillip Bratby

Not much warming to show for 30 years of rising CO2.

Mickey Langan

1998 was the poster child for the AGW crowd. Now they want to minimize it. Somehow they want to have it emphasized to show 20th century warming, but minimized to discount the recent cooling.
It is almost fun to watch, except that I know that global cooling will cause a lot more pain than global warming ever did.

Ron de Haan

Can’t wait for the July data.

IanH

As our Prime [minister] Gordon Brown would point out, that’s still a temperature increase of 0.0

pyromancer76

Neat work, Anthony. You sure do stay on top of the latest and most accurate findings. And thanks to Dr. Roy Spencer.

Pamela Gray

So the catastrophic global warming that furrows the sweated brow of our politicians in the House and soon in the Senate is cooking right along at…0. Yessir, Mr. Malarkey, we must do something to stop this runaway train screaming past us on the way to carbon Armageddon at the speed of…0. I predict the cap and trade system will just make tons of money at a market interest rate of…0. I have got to buy me some of these! No one can pass up that interest rate. Why, it beats the hell out of our current -25% all to hell and gone! Why, with the $1000 I lost last year in my retirement account, I will be directing my financial advisor in invest in stocks with an interest rate of…0. Finally, anyone who votes for any scheme even remotely related to such a bright future based on runaway global warming of…0, should receive exactly…0 votes in his or her next election.

Kum Dollison

Good job, Pamela. I needed a good smile this morning.

Steven Hill

darn it…
no sun spots
the ice is melting too slow
the temp is not dropping
the hell with it, we are going to tax you anyway

Zer0th

‘Click for larger image’ <- not working
FIXED – A

Katherine

YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2009 6 0.001 0.032 -0.030 -0.003

From the above, it looks like “the coolest anomaly (-0.03 deg. C)” was in the Southern Hemisphere (SH?), not the Tropics, which was only -0.003 deg. C

M White

In the UK we’ve just had a couple of hot summery weeks (looks like its coming to an end now). Given the met offices’ recent predictions for 2080 I do not believe this will make an appearance in any MSN publication.

tallbloke

Dennis Wingo (11:55:06) :
Here is a question.
What is used to determine the height of a temperature measurement on the satellites?

Good question. I found this the other day:
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=DcXZF9vogtkC&pg=PA123&lpg=PA123&dq=sea+level+altimetry&source=bl&ots=Ygfn1anHnM&sig=fx_C7fFySsx1XGOUNAfKmLb_jKM&hl=en&ei=-6dMSr_zNs-TjAeKo6yzBQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=6
All sorts of things have to be allowed for to get correct heights.

tallbloke

Does anyone else think John Christy and Dr Roy Spencer are being playful here?
0.001C
Maybe the calc came out at -0.001C but they don’t want us hopping and hooting just yet. perhaps it’s more fun to hear the warmista saying “it’s still positive”.
Wonder what next month will bring. And what RSS will say.
Either way, not many signs of Joe Romm and Jim Hansen’s super el nino yet.

Aron

Aron predicts the UK summer will be mostly a wash out like it was last year.

STAFFAN LINDSTROEM

M White… (12:28:00) So you mean everything above 20C is hot??? Note: Luton N of London
never “hotter” than 28C (SMALL airport…) Heathrow W outskirts dito, 30-31C (big AIRPORT…)[4 consecutive days] August 2003 is just a memory now….SO
since the 1930’s and 1940’s, all that asphalting of the planet has made heatwave
max temps to drop 5-6C, WHEREAS average temps are up 1C…The warmest
anomalies seem to be at 500m up to 3000m ASL…

The data is obviousy nonsense. Temperatures are soaring in the UK where we have just experienced our warmest June in the UK since…errr… 2007
Tonyb

What’s the base period for this anomaly? I followed the link to Spencer’s page, but it didn’t say either.

Ray

Here is the follow up documents of the meeting between Senator Fielding and the Minister for the Climate Change and Water, Penny Wong.
http://joannenova.com.au/global-warming/the-wong-fielding-meeting-on-global-warming-documents/
Looks like the AGWers don’t know or just can’t answer simple questions anymore…

Miles

Cue the Talking Heading music … “I’m on the road to nowhere”

timetochooseagain

Hu McCulloch (13:12:02) : WAY Down at the bottom here:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/readme.17Apr2009
It says 1979-1998

Dan Lee

This reminded me of that Nature article from last year:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/full/453043a.html
“Climate change is often viewed as a phenomenon that will develop in the coming century. But its effects are already being seen, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently projected that, even in the next 20 years, the global climate will warm by around 0.”
‘Warm by around zero’, got it. I don’t recall the IPCC projecting any such thing, but they must have, because its happening already! Its warming by around zero sooner than anyone expected…

Squidly

You sure this is right? It’s like a sultry 83F out by my pool (Nashville)! The Earth is burning up! I just know it … [/sarcoff]

David S

The article states; “The decadal temperature trend for the period December 1978 through June 2009 remains at +0.13 deg. C per decade.”
I don’t like applying straight lines to data that obviously doesn’t follow straight lines. But when I look at the MSU temperature data I see a step function at the El Nino year 1998. Prior to that the anomaly is zero. After that it is about .3C. And at the end the temp seems to be ramping downward. Its as if the El Nino drove the temperature temporarily to a higher plateau and now it is returning to pre-1998 levels.

tallbloke

Wait a minute!
YR…. MON GLOBE NH……. SH TROPICS
2009 6 0.001 0.032 -0.030 -0.003
If TROPICS is included in NH + SH the total anomaly is 0.002
If TROPICS isn’t included in NH + SH the total anomaly is – 0.001!
WUWT?

RE my 13:12 post, it appears from http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/readme.17Apr2009 that the base period is 1979-98, unless there has been a subsequent change buried in this readme file. That looks about right relative to the graph.

Curiousgeorge

Why do I feel like some far-left wing nut will make a connection between this and Sarah Palin’s announcement today?

rbateman

Take note of coincidence here: The rises are slow & painful, the drops are quick & merciful.
Just like the behavior of the Ice Ages, only in microcosm.
Reminds me of the repeating patterns found by boring down on the edges of the Mandelbrot set. Very natural like.
Two can play this game:
The global temps are falling faster than our graphs predicted.
The Deep Solar Minimum is lasting longer than expected.
Dive! Dive! Bow planes at 80 degrees.

Adam from Kansas

Considering the peaks and valleys I would expect it go up somewhat again now, the temps. seem like they never will go down for over 4 consecutive months in most cases, if it drops for pretty much a 5th month that would be a surprise, it will then depend on when it goes up, then goes back down enough to continue the current downtrend.

rbateman

Curiousgeorge (14:01:13) :
Sarah is preparing for the fallout from Cap & Crash.
She’ll be telling everyone “See, I told you so, you bet’cha”.
Hey, what do you get when you mix falling global temps with AGW?
A Green Energy Slushy.

Sam the Skeptic

David S (13:47:17)
I’m with you! Since what we DO know about climate is infinitesimal compared with what we DON’T know there seems no reason why that observation re the 1998 El Nino shouldn’t be correct.
Added to which we know we are coming off the back of a 30-year warming and that 30 years appears to be about the length of the cycle. So it would look very much as if the next twist is going to be downwards.
If I were a climatologist (as opposed to doom-monger with an agenda) I would at least be factoring that possibility into my calculations and suggesting to the politicians that we might just have been over-hyping the AGW+CO2 bit and perhaps it would be a good idea to hold off on doing things that are likely to make you look totally stoopid in five years time.

timetochooseagain

Curiousgeorge (14:01:13) : Would they really be able to contend that effect came before cause? Oh wait…

MikeW

Interesting article today in American Thinker titled ‘Journalists protest Global Warming spin cycle‘. It notes ‘Controversy erupted this week at the World Conference of Science Journalists over the National Science Foundation’s “underwriting” of media projects.’
If only this could catch on more… Full article is at:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/07/journalists_protest_global_war.html
Mike

Ray

Ok… we can say that for June the temperature has been average !!!
What is the level of CO2 for June? Has it been rising still? Obviously, the rise of CO2 is related to climate change but is certainly not the driver.

No anomaly on cap and trade month, how funny is god?
I just fired up the grill, that ought to give some back.

P Walker

Pamela Gray
Does carbon armageddon = carbongeddon ?

ohioholic

tallbloke (13:47:37) :
“Wait a minute!
YR…. MON GLOBE NH……. SH TROPICS
2009 6 0.001 0.032 -0.030 -0.003
If TROPICS is included in NH + SH the total anomaly is 0.002
If TROPICS isn’t included in NH + SH the total anomaly is – 0.001!
WUWT?”
I think you got some wires crossed. Either way, I would round it too. 1/1000 is really nothing.

Robert Wood

Ray pointed top this selection of documents, and the most useful should be widel;y distributed:
http://joannenova.com.au/globalwarming/wong-fielding/7-carter-evans-franks-kininmonth-due-diligence-on-wong.pdf
It makes every rational point in a thoroughly methodical way. Send it to your Senators, Yanks.

Robert Wood

Ray, It is above average for, oh … say … 1678. Get with the progrom!!! Mind you, I bel;ieve there was local warming in London in 1666

Skeptic Tank

Why do I feel like some far-left wing nut will make a connection between this and Sarah Palin’s announcement today?
Because what else could it be?

UK Sceptic

Aron, Lancashire (UK) weather was back to its summer norm today – torrential downpour. I suspect that we’ve just experienced our “barbecue” summer. All three days of it. All courtesy of AGW of course… ;D

timetochooseagain

Ray (14:14:35) :
Follow ESRL:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Still rising, but the rate at which it does so is modulated by how fast and in what direction the sea surface temperature is changing. The rise itself is emission related, at least mostly. I was working on a simple way to relate these factors but I abandoned the project way back when. Maybe I’ll get back to it one day.
I would also add that while I agree it is not “the” driver, I think it plays some role (a minor, less than alarming one).

VG

I think the big one here, if it happens….is a continuous drop or flatlining with a concurrent Nino for the rest of the year. It will become intolerable for the warmistas

Shr_Nfr

To Dennis Wingo: This is what is known as the inversion process in estimation of temperature from microwave (or infra-red) satellites in general. There are a number of approaches to the problem to retrieve the vertical temperature profile from a set of observations. I will not go into the details, but I worked with the pioneering group at MIT who had microwave instruments on the Nimbus E and Nimbus F satellites in the 1970s. The real take home though is that the total brightness temperature of the TLT channel is the integral of the temperature in the atmosphere multiplied by the weighting function + the total microwave energy hitting the surface times the reflectivity of the surface and then reduced by the total opacity of the path from the surface + the temperature of the surface times (1-reflectivity) of the surface. In a quasi window channel like the TLT you are seeing the bottom of the atmosphere and the surface temperature. If the global surface and lower troposphere were to be get warmer, you would see it as you see it in the El Nino peak of the late 90s.

conradg

I have an off-topic question someone might be able to find me with. I remember reading an article, perhaps an interview, with James Hansen, in which he admited that the models were unreliable, and that we should refer to the observational data. He said he predicted a .15-.18C/decade rise in temperatures over the next century, I believe. He also mentioned that he took seriously the lack of new temperature highs during the last decade, and that if this doesn’t change soon it will mean a further revision of the models. Does anyone know of this article, where the source might be? I think I read it here, but it might be at some other site. Any help locating this would be helpful.

timetochooseagain

VG (14:41:49) : Nah, they will just say “This El Nino is similar, but different”:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6464

tallbloke

P Walker (14:29:58) :
Pamela Gray
Does carbon armageddon = carbongeddon ?

Karmageddon. As in,
“Sorry mate, my Karma just ran over your Dogma.