excerpts:
From Joe’s European Weather Blog:
The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.
First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.
And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.
Yikes!
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:
and the 30 day CPC forecast here
‘Actually, any trend over a relatively acceptable period gives warming. ‘
Let us hope so.
Several people have pointed that by showing temps. in anomaly fashion, rather than absolute fashion, visually gives the impression that they fluctuate wildly. IMHO, if graphed in absolute terms, temps are relatively stable. In truth, aren’t we discussing changes of a few hundredths of a degree, and extrapolating that into the future ? In July of 2008, the ” consensus” was that by Feb. 2009 gasoline would be $ 7.00 per gallon. Maybe it’s human nature to do that ? fm
The New World religion wants to execute and imprison us skeptics now. It’s not just prophecy and apocalypse they stole from traditional theocracies but also the threat to kill heretics.
http://climatedepot.com/a/1096/Execute-Skeptics-Shock-Call-To-Action-At-what-point-do-we-jail-or-execute-global-warming-deniers–Shouldnt-we-start-punishing-them-now
Isn’t that against the law?
1816: the ‘year without a summer’.
http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/Calen/Year1816.html
E.M.Smith (22:48:42) :
I wouldn’t be so quick to trust MSNBC and CNBC. They give recommendations to buy stocks sometimes and the stock goes down the next day. They also give recommendations to not buy certain stocks and then those stocks go up for a couple weeks. Buyer beware!
Maybe Napoleon was more comfortable on St Helena than he would have been on Elba.
On the basis of little factual information and an overactive imagination, I vote for 1690 as the coldest year of the second millennium.
“Not sure what you mean here by the left trying to “stop globalization.” In political circles, globalization is something I associate with the left, trying to make the whole world over into one mold (think here “one world government” for a particularly paranoid view of “globalization”). Perhaps you mean “global economy.” Even that isn’t necessarily a goal of the left, to stop a global economy. ”
I think what he meant was free markets which allow all nations to play equally on the same field. The global warming alarmist community seem to be hell bent on stopping development in poorer countries, forcing developing nations to live on our welfare and thus maintain the West’s hegemony over the world, or at least the hegemony of the most powerful nations (including Russia, China, India). So in the end you have a powerful international Marxist alliance who control all trade and migration under the pretense of caring for the planet. I call it imperialism, elitism and racism. Putting an Obama or a Kofi Annan there as a public face does not disguise it well enough.
warmingistas, you know i like the sound of that.
A literary note:
“The bad weather wasn’t confined to North America. The summer weather in parts of Europe was so bad that it reminded people of November. On June 16, Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley noted that the weather at Lake Geneva turned abruptly from dry and beautiful to lashing rain, with howling winds and vicious lightning storms. Shelley was spending the “cold and rainy” summer in Switzerland with various literati. Most were confined indoors on
stormy June 22, where rounds of ghost stories ensued. They pledged to record these fables on paper, and Mary Shelley was the first to prevail (by 1818). As a fruit of her labors, we have the Gothic chiller Frankenstein: Or, the Modern Prometheus.”
” Maybe the UK Met is operating on the axiom that if you just keeping predicting the same thing, eventually you’re bound to be right.”
Like the ‘expert’ in economics who has accurately predicted ten of the last three recessions.
Slightly OT:
More on aircraft and lightning.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&article=9
Leon Brozyna (22:04:06) : “And in fifty years, this era of the AGW belief system will be looked on as a silly mass movement “
That, supposing it is a naive movement but it is not, it is an speculation business, of making money out of nothing as long as there are “carbon credits” at a US$3.- per amazon jungle hectare vs. US$XXXX.-per “carbon share” which “polluters” will be obliged to buy because of the Kyoto Protocol and the next Copenhagen Protocol.
If believers think a little they will realize that “sinful” pollution will keep going on the same but now with clever brokers in between who will “transmute” CO2, the invisible gas, into visible GOLD.
That speculation will produce inflation because it is not backed with production of real goods.
Fiona Maddock, I think you’ll find the kind of discussion you want
here. Miles O’Brien is a pilot, so his discussion includes aerodynamics as well as weather.
Joe Bastardi was the reason I, (a typical Yankee tight-wad,) shelled out something like 40 cents a day to subscribe to the Accuweather “Professional Site.” I have zero faith in the NWS forecasts, beyond five days, but Joe has an uncanny ability to foresee patterns as far as a year into the future.
Not that he can’t be wrong. However even when he is wrong it is not because he totally missed the pattern, but rather because he missed a butterfly flapping its wings, and injecting an unexpected element into the pattern. Two examples spring to mind.
1.) (2006?) He basically predicted steady winds from the northwest for most of the month of January, in New England. It happened, but he also predicted it would be very cold, (which you would expect of NW winds in January.) To my amazement the NW winds stayed surprisingly mild. Apparently a steady stream of Pacific air was surging over the Canadian Rockies, injecting Chinook conditions into the NW flow.
2.) (2007?) He stated the set-up for the tropical season was much like 1954. That set off alarms for me, for I know people around here have forgotten what a Yankee hurricane is like, and are utterly unprepared. In 1954 we had three, Carol, Edna and Hazel. As predicted, the pattern developed. There were three tropical developments. Even the timing was surprisingly like 1954. However all three were a hundred miles too far from the tracks of Carol, Edna and Hazel, and were weakened and gutted by land, so New England got nothing.
I have just pointed out how close he was to amazing long-term forecasts. I guess you could say I have made excuses. However Mr. Bastardi didn’t make any excuses. He just said “I was wrong.” You can tell he doesn’t like being wrong one bit, and in fact he looks like death-warmed-over when he misses even part of a forecast, however his frankness is refreshing to me.
I think such frankness is the heart of honest science. I sure wish fellows like Hansen and Mann could be accused of such honest frankness.
I live In miami and it has rained 22 of the last 24 days.. overall the weather can characterized by three odditys..
#1 the rain would often manifest earlier in the afternoon.. and on more than half those days it would rain again in evening..
# 2 cloud ceilings and for mations have been.. so unusual.. that on a number of occasions i would go out side and see quite a few others where I live doing the same( more than one would comment that they had never seen the sky look as we did, hardlt scientific but bears noting.. one individual is a retired sailor of 30 years+)
# 3 The presence of cool breezes precendent to these deluges.. I would like to characterize this clearly.. the air itself is notably cool…and not consistent with miami
now i have attempted instumentation.. to no credible avail..
As portable gauges give no real measure lacking the primer of what were the readings prior to me placing them
mY point.. By every measure this summer.. has been no where as hot.. though we may crest in temps similiar to historical averages.. the total number of hours at that temp.. is not even comparable
most up to date summary of climate with really very good graphs
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/may_co2_report.pdf
“A cool wet June puts everything in Tune”
An old english country saying.
And here is the 30 days forecast for the US as a whole, i.e. including Alaska which for some reason is absent in the picture given above
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif
REPLY: Thanks for pointing that out, I fixed that so that both maps are the same projection. – Anthony
Allan M R MacRae (03:05:44) :
If Joe B is right, what is the impact, if any, on the Canada + USA grain harvest this year?
Down by 10%, 20%, 30% or more?
Has Joe’s prediction had any effect on grain futures yet?
The crop is mostly “made” in Kansas. A late freeze reduced winter wheat yields from Neb to TX. According to USDA, the reduction is approximately 15-20% from the recent average.
Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, down 20 percent from 2008. Expected area for harvest as
grain or seed totals 34.0 million acres, down 14 percent from last year. Based on May 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is
forecast at 44.2 bushels per acre, down 3.0 bushels from the previous year.
Hard Red production is down 16 percent from a year ago to 871 million bushels. Soft Red production is down
31 percent and totals 422 million bushels. White production totals 208 million bushels, down 5 percent from a year
ago. Of the White production total, 20.8 million bushels are Hard White and 188 million bushels are Soft White.
I’ve always been skeptical of statements like “the year without a summer” as it makes the realist crowd sound like the alarmist crowd.
Besides, I remember Bastardi’s insistent prediction that Hurricane Rita was on a path to directly hit Houston despite all other predictions of a landfall east of Houston. He was one of the reasons for the mass public panic and choked highways. As a result, I very rarely give Bastardi’s opinion much weight despite what he has to say…
May be weather is not climate, but here in So. New England the outdoor, inground ambient pool temperature is 62 F. Normally by Memorial day we’re able to hold low 70s in late Spring and heat it for the weekends. Kids are asking, when’s Summer start? Answer: May not.
Joe Bastardi. Just don’t listen to his hurricane predictions for Houston and he’s okay. In 2008 for the first time in many years he didn’t predict a major hurricane. Then came “Ike.”
Adam Gallon (01:51:09) :
Re: Adam – 1816 was the middle year of 5 very rough years, starting with 1814 and ending with 1818. The chill was already in the air before the volcano cooked off.
VG (08:46:26),
Thanks for posting that excellent link.
Have a look at a collection of cold weather events world wide:
http://www.climatedepot.com/a/1226/Brrrrr-Too-cold-for-ice-cream-Parts-of-US-forecast-to-have-a-year-without-a-summer