Jeff Id at the Air Vent has been doing some interesting work lately. Before the NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice anomaly plot went kaput due to failure of the satellite sensor channel they have been using, they had created a vast archive of single day gridded data packages for Arctic sea ice extent. Jeff plotted images from the data as viewed from directly over the North Pole. It took him over 15 hours of computational time. An example image is below.
Jeff gathered up all the resultant plotted images and turned them into a movie, but placed them on the website “tinypic” where the movie won’t get much airplay.
I offered Jeff the opportunity to have it hosted on YouTube and posted here, where it would get far greater exposure and I completed the conversion this afternoon.
What I find most interesting is watch the “respiration” of Arctic Sea Ice, plus the buffeting of the sea ice escaping the Arctic and heading down the east coast of Greenland where it melts in warmer waters.
Jeff writes:
I find the Arctic sea ice to be amazingly dynamic. Honestly, I used to think of it as something static and stationary, the same region meltinig and re-freezing for dozens or even hundreds of years – not that I put much thought into it either way. Shows you what I know.
This post is another set of Arctic ice plots and an amazing high speed video. The NSIDC NasaTeam data is presented in gridded binary matrices in downloadable form HERE.
The data is about 1.3Gb in size so it takes hours to download, I put it directly on my harddrive and worked from there. The code for extraction took a while to work out but was pretty simple in the end. This code ignores leap years. Formatting removed courtesy of WordPress.
filenames=list.files(path=”C:/agw/sea ice/north sea ice/nasateam daily/”, pattern = NULL, all.files = TRUE, full.names = FALSE, recursive = TRUE)
trend=array(0,dim=length(filenames)-1)
date=array(0,dim=length(filenames)-1)
masktrend=array(0,dim=length(filenames)-1)
for(i in 1:(length(filenames)-1))
{
fn=paste(”C:/agw/sea ice/north sea ice/nasateam daily/”,filenames[i],sep=””) #folder containing sea ice files
a=file(fn,”rb”)
header= readBin(a,n=102,what=integer(),size=1,endian=”little”,signed=FALSE)
year=readChar(a,n=6)
print(year)
day=readChar(a,n=6)
print(day)
header=readChar(a,n=300-114)
data=readBin(a,n=304*448,what=integer(),size=1,endian=”little”,signed=FALSE)
close(a)
if(as.integer(year)+1900<=2500)
{
date[i]=1900+as.integer(year)+as.integer(day)/365
}else
{
date[i]=as.integer(year)+as.integer(day)/365
}
if(i==1)
{
holemask= !(data==251)
}
datamask=data<251 & data>37 ## 15% of lower values masked out to match NSIDC
trend[i]=sum(data[(datamask*holemask)==1])/250*625
}
###mask out satellite F15
satname=substring(filenames,18,20)
satmask= satname==”f15″
newtrend=trend[!satmask]
newdate=date[!satmask]
After that there is some minor filtering done on 7 day windows to dampen some of the noise in the near real time data.
filtrend=array(0,dim=length(newtrend))
for(i in 1:(length(newtrend)))
{
sumdat=0
for(j in -3:3)
{
k=i+j
if(k<1)k=1
if(k>length(newtrend)-1)k=length(newtrend)-1
sumdat=sumdat+newtrend[k]
}
filtrend[i]=sumdat/7
}
So here is a plot of the filtered data:
Here is the current anomaly.
This compares well with the NSIDC and cryosphere plots. This anomaly is slightly different from some of my previous plots because it rejects data less than 15% sea-ice concentration. Cryosphere rejects data less than 10%. In either case the difference is very slight but since we’ve just learned that the satellites have died and are about 500,000km too low, my previous graph may be more correct. I hope the NSIDC get’s something working soon.
All of that is pretty exciting but the reason for this post is to show the COMPLETE history of the NSIDC arctic sea ice in a video. I used tinypic as a service for this 27mb file so don’t worry, you should be able to see it quite well on a high speed connection. It took my dual processor laptop computer more than 15 hours to calculate this movie, I hope it’s worth it. Brown is land, black is shoreline, blue is water except for the large blue dot in the center of the plot. The movie plays double speed at the beginning because the early satellite collected data every other day. You’ll see the large blue circle change in size flashing back and forth between the older and newer sat data just as the video slows down.
After staring at the graphs above you think you understand what is happening as ice gradually shrinks away. Well the high speed video shows a much more turbulent world with changing weather patterns in 2007 and 2008 summer blasting away at the south west corner of the ice. I’ve watched it 20 times at least, noticing cloud patterns (causing lower ice levels), winds, water currents and all kinds of different things. I’m not so sure anymore that we’re seeing a consistent decline to polarbear doom, with this kind of variance it might just be everyday noise.
Maybe I’m nuts, let me know what you see.
No Jeff you aren’t nuts. Here is the YouTube Video, suitable for sharing:
Here is another video I posted on You Tube last month which shows the flow of sea ice down the east coast of Greenland. Clearly there is more at work here than simple melting, there is a whole flow dynamic going on.
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Phil. (09:13:04) :
I’m a fan of most of what the NSIDC does. The problem with the video you show is that you can’t see the ice flowing out and recovering every year. It gives a no information of the actual cyclic variation while highlighting summer minima and the last two years of decline.
It’s a different story IMHO regarding the future melting of the arctic when I see the strong annual recovery and the large annual variation.
Do you know when NOAA-17 will be on line?
==================
George E. Smith (09:24:32) :
This link has the file in download version. You should be able to find a player somewhere with slow motion capabilities.
http://www.mediafire.com/?sharekey=e7660709e60db32bb94117dade8fc295e04e75f6e8ebb871
Jeff, you’ve made an excellent contribution to the conceptual understanding of the dynamics of the arctic sea ice. Even the thickest sea ice will fail in compression/tension when it has a couple hundred miles of current/wind acting on it. Allow an anecdote?: I watched an evu in Nome some years ago during dead calm. The ice was being pushed from somewhere, but from the perspective of the shore it was like it had a mind of it’s own. An alien invasion complete with the steady crunch-crunch of marching as the ice came ashore.
When the wind or current acts, the ice moves. Shows the Catlin (underwriters extraordinaire) ice transect idea to be really (I mean really) silly.
Arthur Glass (06:25:07)
I think you missed this part of the posting by TonyB (00:46:53)
“2 This relates to an Arctic culture thriving in warmer times 2000 years ago
From the Eskimo Times Monday, Mar. 17, 1941”
I’ve often wondered why the Eskimos stopped and settled on the Arctic coastline instead of continuing to migrate south. A much more tolerable climate at the time of their arrival would certainly be a reason.
Anthony:
OT but have you seen this?
http://www.cbc.ca/mrl3/8752/sunday/051709_1.wmv
These people are completely over the top. Talk about moving the goal posts. She mentions the scientist who, when she realize the consequences of her research either went to the toilet and threw up or wanted to.
I wanted to throw up watching this last night on CBC Sunday Report.
Anyone want to comment?
I got here late and don’t have time to read every prior post–if I’m repeating someone else’s idea I apologize in advance.
The climate alarmists crow about the ice melting not so much because of the ice itself, but because of secondary effects–drowning polar bears, coastal flooding, etc. Watching the video it struck me that the rising sea level argument seems ineffective at best when one has the visual experience of the arctic sea ice waxing and waning with the seasons.
Get this video out there to the masses.
Tim
Phil. (09:13:04) :
I’ve used AMSRE for this aniiimation wait for the 100 frmes to load and it will run quicker!:
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/9735/seaice09.gif
The trouble with your referenced animation is it does no show the ice flowing away from the pole to melt. This is essential for most on here.
In the same way they will not like the 2009 AMSRE animation beacuse this year it’s melting before moving!
Jeff Id (10:10:05) :
Phil. (09:13:04) :
I’m a fan of most of what the NSIDC does. The problem with the video you show is that you can’t see the ice flowing out and recovering every year. It gives a no information of the actual cyclic variation while highlighting summer minima and the last two years of decline.
Agreed, I was really addressing the criticism by Bill Illis of NSIDC, whereas in fact they have provided an animation tool and even animations on Google Earth. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/image_select.html
http://nsidc.org/data/virtual_globes/
With that tool you can see the month by month pulsing of the ice (don’t select fixed month animation). So NSIDC does do a good job of providing animations (probably where they let themselves down is in the design of their website which isn’t easy to navigate).
The daily resolution is better as it does really show the outflow through the Fram (the animation by JAXA a couple of years ago was really impressive).
You can view a slideshow of the AMSR-E images (0.5 sec interval works well) at http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e
There are also some good animations at
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/App/WsvPageDsp.cfm?Lang=eng&lnid=43&ScndLvl=no&ID=11892
It’s a different story IMHO regarding the future melting of the arctic when I see the strong annual recovery and the large annual variation.
Do you know when NOAA-17 will be on line?
I’ve yet to see a recent strong annual recovery.
With reference to an earlier post, the Russian NP-36 has been drifting at an average of ~8.8km/day
Jeff Id (10:10:05) :
Phil. (09:13:04) :
“…..it gives a no information of the actual cyclic variation while highlighting summer minima and the last two years of decline. ”
It’s almost as if they were “pushing an agenda”. Gee, they wouldn’t do that would they?
Wouldn’t it be a shock if we got the data, the whole data, and nothing but the data? No slanting, no censorship by omission, no highlighting of data for political reasons?
Phil. (11:52:29) :
The NSIDC does an excellent job maintaining and making available data to the public. I’ve also found them responsive to questions, I take it NOAA 17 is an unknown.
—-
The Arctic ice set the record for recovery rate in the summer of 2007 according to my NSIDC data.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/02/03/arctic-sea-ice-increases-at-record-rate/
Now we can discuss thickness and other issues but the recovery rate was a 30 year record.
http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/Icefilm_Arctic.avi
for Bremen as well.
Regards
Andy
>John Boy (07:49:49) :
>Ryan O. (Steig et al falsified) has been taken to the woodshed by RC.
They know what they’re talking about at RealClimate. The Mann Graph was solid work. 😉
(sarc off)
Jeff
Thank you! I liked it! Wonderful work! You were underpaid to do it! 😉
I have a suggestion, no criticizm whatsoever, no complaiant whatsoever, just a suggestion — you could make a second version (if you have the time) that runs a little slower, with music, and has 2 dates per year superimposed, i.e., perhaps , March 15 1979, September 15 1979, March 15 1980, September 15 1980, etc, etc, i.e. the dates near the maximum and minimum each year, whatever that best date is.
Thank you again for the video!!
This truly is the BEST SCIENCE BLOG!!!!!!
Tim F says:
Sea levels don’t rise because of declining sea ice. By Archimedes Principle, if ice is floating on water and it melts, it does not cause the sea level to rise. The concern for sea levels comes from the melting of ice sheets and glaciers (in addition to the simple fact that warming of the oceans causes sea level rise because of thermal expansion).
Sea ice is important in terms of the polar bears but another reason is that there is a positive feedback involving it…I.e., as the sea ice extent in summer decreases, less of the solar radiation is reflected back out into space and hence further warming of the arctic results.
What changes in winds or currents or (?) are sending the ice to disappear around Greenland? And, is there anything else, besides increasing Arctic temperatures, that might be causing those changes?
For there’s less and less thick perennial sea ice, because its disappearing around Greenland.
It was weather conditions in 2007 that led to the severe ice loss. This hadn’t happened before, in years with similar weather conditions, because there was then more perennial ice.
The summer feedback consequences extend beyond just the greater heat absorption by open water. Solar radiation will be reflected more from perennial ice. And less solar radiation will be transmitted through it.
2008 was the year of the lowest Arctic sea ice volume.
My awe is suitably inspired. Thank you.
Steve Hempell (11:15:37) : “Anyone want to comment?”
After consuming this confection my opinion of the new science has not changed. You want money? Influence? Toe the line.
Apart from the featured scientist having a book to sell and the media needing to feed an addled and addicted society ever more verminous effusion, “The powers that be” are gleefully rubbing it in.
Their confidence level is at a point where they could care less that some of their subjects can see that they have lied and that most of the world fully believes that lie. They may now openly reveal what they have achieved, proving that we are almost powerless to respond to the systems which control even the minutia of our lives.
Rebellion is no longer the solution to this egregious dislocation.
Spots on the sun today! Call Obama and Pelosi! Cap and Tax, the ice is melting, oh no!
While were focused on visuals, here is the live webcam at Arapaho Basin Ski area, (which is still open for skiing) with the summit in a snowstorm on June 1
http://arapahoebasin.com/ABasin/snow-conditions/web-cams.aspx
The video seems to have difficulty deciding whether the Great Lakes freeze over or not.
Steve Hempell
The guy was a very credulous interviewer wasn’t he? It would have been good if he had asked a few searching questions instead of not realising his guest had a book to sell.
I forecast last year that ocean acidification would become the new battleground as the Co2 hypotheses was not validated by temperatures rising in step with increasing c02 concentrations and other factors contributing to natural climate change became better understood (Clouds, ocean currents, solar variation, jet stream etc).
I think another article on ocean acidification on WUWT would be very timely-it should actually be termed as slightly less alkaline, but that does not have the same ring about it.
Tonyb
Tom in Co (15:06:57) :
While were focused on visuals, here is the live webcam at Arapaho Basin Ski area, (which is still open for skiing) with the summit in a snowstorm on June 1
Pike’s Peak got pounded last weekend, too, and is probably getting snow right now. My brother chose last Tuesday as the day to take the Cog Railway up to the top. Bad choice. Besides the snowstorm they railed into, the altitude sickness nearly too him and his family out for a few days (they are otherwise sea level residents).
The mountain is pretty cool looking right now… well, if it weren’t covered in clouds from yet another storm moving through.
Mark
Anybody know if the polar bears know about the effects of the Arctic Gyre? I’ll wager they do. They might, though, just be following seals which are looking for current driven ice motion to create breathing holes. Seems to me that aimless prospecting on the open ice by the bears would be a poor way to keep fed. Sure doesn’t work on elk in the Montana forests. Or for the Catlin expedition. Get some seals and bears in this movie. Kidding.
Look at this pretty interesting. Any one investigated this yet?
http://tech-know.eu/uploads/SUN_heats_EARTH.pdf
Joel Shore (14:38:27) :
“Sea ice is important in terms of the polar bears but another reason is that there is a positive feedback involving it…I.e., as the sea ice extent in summer decreases, less of the solar radiation is reflected back out into space and hence further warming of the arctic results.”
(1) Sea ice and Polar bears… Both Ursus maritimus and preferred diet share the same sea-ice thus, if computer-models have it right and sea-ice diminishes, would this not tend to favour a scenario that advantages the predator over the predated? Less places to hide and hunt may give rise to a new genus- Ursus Adipose- and an extinction of Seal!
(2) Positive feedback from decreased albedo resulting in an enhanced insolation that drives Arctic Warming to flood the planet with glacial and thermically-expansionist sea-level risings? Get real Joel, let us ignore the science ( easier for you than me – sorry mate but true) and look at the present.
We’re still around. It hasn’t happened before and, when it happens,it’ll have nowt to do with us. I reckon that you’re thinking – let me keep it polite – that it’s the sheer suddeness of man’s assault on Nature that will drag us into Climate hell. Mate, we are fleas on the back of a giant, and, however much it pleasures us to fantasize about self-importance, the worst we can do is to ourselves!
Tom in Co (15:06:57) :
The Chu Effect
Mr Watts: You are an excellent teacher. I hate to say this but you might be irreplaceable. Please, don’t ride in one of those little tin-can cars that save on pollution and risk your life.
(I am writing you from Santa Cruz, California, one of the religious centers of green superstition.)