Guest Post by Steven Goddard
According to the Catlin website, the team plans to leave the Arctic later this week. I believe that they have done a fantastic job educating the public about the Arctic. Their mission has been followed breathlessly by BBC and Guardian reporters, who previously believed that the Arctic had melted and become a place for sunbathing.
Following the daily reports of ice, cold, frostbite, hypothermia, pain and general misery being endured by the team – even the most daft newspaper reporter must be aware now that the Arctic is a very cold and icy place.
My hat is off to the Catlin team for providing an invaluable education to those of us enjoying the springtime at lower latitudes. Hopefully they will return home safely to their families, and produce a useful and unbiased report of their findings about the ice.
This education for the public on the enduring cold of the Arctic is not marred by the fact that they failed to deliver on many early promises, including reaching the North Pole. Maybe this is why the press is pretty much ignoring them now, with only 14 hits in a Google News search for “Catlin Arctic Ice Survey”.
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There was a miserable report about the Survey (err, Catlin – always use the name of the prime sponsor!) on ABC’s (USA) Good Morning America. I entered this on their feedback form that a few people will see before ABC ignores it:
It was done by Nick Watt, who is a Nightline host, so they may have coverage there too. I don’t have time to check with them this AM.
Steve Goddard (15:48:47) :
bill,
Sea water freezes at -2C/ If you kept the temperature over the ice permanently at -8C, it would eventually freeze all the way to the sea floor – unless there is another source of heat in the system.
Please give it a rest – you are just talking gibberish.
Actually you’re the one talking gibberish, as usual.
The well-known source in the system is the flow of warmer water under the ice predominantly from the Atlantic, the thickness of the ice is determined thermodynamically by loss of heat through the ice thus cooling the layer of water immediately under it until it freezes. As the ice gets thicker the rate of freezing at the bottom decreases because the rate of heat loss drops.
http://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2115/34395/5/Maslowski.pdf
Anyone seen this story yet?
Pen Hadow warns that “the data collected showed the ice cap would no longer be a permanent feature of the planet.”
And also that – wait for it – “the ice could disappear altogether as early as this summer.”
Ladies and gentlemen, the 2009 Arctic ice-melt silly season has now officially started! Here we go (again)…
Phil,
The laws of thermodynamics are not “gibberish,” but you have at least identified an external heat source.
Now justify bill’s comment:
I think the 3 Stooges have departed.
Now for the smoke and mirrors report of their ‘scientific expedition’……..
Zzzzzzzzzzzz………
Steve
This is an advert from the Met Office who are local to me, seeking a polar ice expert. As you can see the science doesn’t seem to be as settled as claimed as regards knowledge of the ice or of sea levels.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/recruitment/vacancies/001758.html
“A significant uncertainty in future projections of sea level is associated with dynamical changes in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and a key aspect of this uncertainty is the role of ice shelves, how they might respond to climate change, and the effect this could have on the ice sheets. The goal of the post is to contribute to improved scenarios of sea-level rise, which is an important aspect of climate change, with large coastal impacts.
Specific job purpose
Incorporate a model of ice shelves into the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model to develop a capability to make projections of rapid changes in ice sheets, thereby leading to improved scenarios of future sea-level rise.”
tonyb
Latest from the BBC:
“New warning over Arctic ice-cap”
“The Arctic ice-cap, a permanent feature for at least 100,000 years, could vanish in summertime far sooner than predicted, a leading scientist says.
Professor Peter Wadhams, from the University of Cambridge, told BBC News he has brought forward his estimates of the ice-cap’s demise.
He believes the ice is now so thin that almost all of it will disappear in about a decade.
He says it will become seasonal, forming only during the winter.”
See:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8047862.stm
There is a short video on the above page, but it is only part of the broadcast article currently showing on BBC News 24. The broadcast article comments on the Catlin Exhib.. er Expedition.
The broadcast article describes submarine surveys since the 1960s and shows the Catlin Expedition swimming across wafer thin ice.
RE: alexjc38 (10:32:38) :
**And also that – wait for it – “the ice could disappear altogether as early as this summer.”**
Well we will not have long to wait to verify this one. They may have to clarify what they mean by “disappear”.
On the contrary – I have just watched the main evening BBC news bulletin where their reporter was bathed in sunshine and claiming there would be no summer ice in 20 years and the Catlin expedition had shown the thinness of the ice.
Hadrow was shown suited up and leaping into open water to prove their way was blocked by thin ice. The whole story was geared to the success of the expedition in proving the thinness of the ice.
They also produced a scientist who claimed nuclear sub records (presumably British) showed thinning ice.
So this expedition has achieved its propaganda exercise – you may wish to view the news clip (10 pm Weds British time) to see the claims..
Ah just seen another comment verifying this.
Just watched the 10 oclock news and the Hadow expedition has been a stunning success according to the BBC.
No need for the Met office to advertise for a polar expert then-my post above
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/recruitment/vacancies/001758.html
As the BBC Has just demonstrated the science is more settled than the Met office thought;
Excerpt from Ad.
“A significant uncertainty in future projections of sea level is associated with dynamical changes in the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and a key aspect of this uncertainty is the role of ice shelves, how they might respond to climate change, and the effect this could have on the ice sheets. The goal of the post is to contribute to improved scenarios of sea-level rise, which is an important aspect of climate change….”
tonyb
TonyB,
I notice that the Met office is offering £25,000, and they require a PhD. No doubt they will get what they’re paying for.
BBC Headline
“Epic adventure
Explorers reach end of perilous trek across Arctic ”
Apparently they found miore ice than they expected. Listen to Pens “interview’
This also today from the BBC, where they seem to have forgotten to airbrush the label “perennial summer sea ice”… 🙂
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7897392.stm
PS Pen’s interview from the ice was on the Catlin site. They had to use the immersion suits much less than expected. Also given their “expected” daily progress there was never any real hope of reaching the pole.
‘Gruelling’ Arctic mission ends
Their data will help study the impacts of global warming in the region.
It also reinforces a new forecast, by a leading UK scientist, who says that the Arctic sea-ice could vanish in summertime far sooner than predicted.
The Catlin survey ended slightly ahead of schedule to ensure a safe pick up.
as predicted right here on WUWT, they are claiming they expected to find thicker multiyear ice instead of thinner first year ice:
Our science advisors had told us to expect thicker, older ice on at least part of the route, so it is something of a mystery where that older ice has gone. It’ll be interesting to see what scientists think about this.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8047862.stm
I guess none of us that read WUWT regularly should be surprised by this “news”.
TonyB wrote in part:
“[…} So WUWT could become a sort of international rescue for failed green expeditions to cold and hostile environments
We could call the service;
‘I can’t believe its not hotter.’”
On the logo, I’d want Skippy the ‘roo, in the snow, holding an upside down hockey stick to deliver your tag line.
Steve Goddard (11:00:55) :
The laws of thermodynamics are not “gibberish,” but you have at least identified an external heat source.
Now justify bill’s comment:
Currently Catlin are seeing air temperatures of -8C . If this is maintained then it will support an ice thickness of only 57 cm (assuming -8C is the ice not air temp.)
The reference I gave describes the reason why the whole depth does not freeze and by the whole ice does not melt: It down to the halocline.
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=PGGMCHTjADEC&pg=PA51&lpg=PA51&dq=seawater+freeze+halocline&source=bl&ots=eOJM4t9rS8&sig=jy-9cqO7Kuh4sHAdlOgTjLjHD8U&hl=en&ei=tAgKSubHKKOsjAeIwvmPCw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2#PPA51,M1
The water ice interface must be in equilibrium – ice is melting and forming at the same rate. Increase the thermal conduction of ice and the thiscness will vary untill the bottom of the ice is at the equilibrium temp. Decrease the top ice temp and the thickness will increase to maintain the temperature at the interface.
Using the plots for various dates on the Buoy 2006C gives these approx results
-23C 200cm
-18C 170cm
-16C 155cm
-11C 100cm
-4C 30cm
(cannot access the data any more – the new web site seem not to work. so cannot check other buoys)
A linear curve fit to this gives an equation of thickness = -9.2161*[temp] – 1.7113
R² = 0.986
at -40C a thickness would be 3.7metres
at -8C a thickness of 72 cm
I mentioned this AM (05:22:10) that I suspected that ABC’s Nightline might have a story about the Catlin Survey, and they did. It was pretty much what I expected, a one-sided pro-Catlin review and no mention of that German survey with an instrument towed by an airplane.
Readers here will learn nothing from watching the program.
Now that the comedy of errors has thankfully ended, let us recap:
73 days on ice rather than the planned 100 days.
434 km of a planned 1,000 km trip – didn’t even get halfway.
And even worse – they’re still spinning (lying) that the ice is thinner than expected and that they were surprised at how much first year ice they encountered. Well hello – except for a short stretch of older ice, most of the route they took was over first year ice. Just check the map overlay created in this previous post:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/16/busted-catlin-arctic-ice-survey-didnt-expect-to-find-first-year-ice/
Notice that the midpoint in their route – where they ended this junket – is a large expanse of a mix of first and what looks like second year ice. The cycnic in me thinks that they probably drilled for samples in the easier to drill first year ice. Now they’re loaded up for this year’s propaganda battle in a run up to Copenhagen.
Lest they forget – before then comes the melt max in September and that’s one event that’s bound to disappoint as the sea ice continues its slow recovery with levels higher again than last year’s increase.
It would be an interesting piece of work for someone to gather all the Caitlin articles into a single essay along with some of the significant comments. I believe it would make an interesting book on just how the truth has been manipulated.
bill,
You are making all kinds of assumptions about many different factors being at some sort of equilibrium, without any basis. The air temperature changes throughout the year in the Arctic. Ice thickness normally increases until mid-May, and then it declines through the summer as more solar radiation is received and air temperatures are warmer.
Is it just me, or does Pen Hadow making the front page at wiki seem rather “timely”, given the end of his recent journey?
“British Arctic explorer Pen Hadow” is down in the “Did You Know” section.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page
In todays (14th May) Daily Telegraph the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey is presented as a success, even though the extreme low temperatures are mentioned.
Shape of things to come?
Having spent several years working in the Arctic I can guarantee you that taking a snow depth measurement there is a complete waste of time. The Arctic is actually a semi-arid area by the definition of that term vis-a-vis precipitation amounts annually. The stuff that does get deposited gets moved around continually in whichever direction the wind happens to be blowing. And it’s always blowing from somewhere. It’s also very harsh and cold and not a good place to venture with foolish notions.
Steve Goddard (12:13:13) :
Ice thickness normally increases until mid-May, and then it declines through the summer as more solar radiation is received and air temperatures are warmer.
Thermal diffusivity of ice is temp dependant
1.1@0C and 1.7@-50c*10-6m^2s^-1
taking the lowest figure gives a temperature propagation of 27cm in 1 day so the bottom of a 3 metre thick ice block should see the surface temperature in about 10days assuming the bottom is free to change (it isn’t of course its maintained at -2C by the sea)
So the buoy data is reasonably accurate as far as my calculation goes, for the thicknesses seen (a couple of days a one temperature is not unusual).