Guest Post by Steven Goddard
According to the Catlin website, the team plans to leave the Arctic later this week. I believe that they have done a fantastic job educating the public about the Arctic. Their mission has been followed breathlessly by BBC and Guardian reporters, who previously believed that the Arctic had melted and become a place for sunbathing.
Following the daily reports of ice, cold, frostbite, hypothermia, pain and general misery being endured by the team – even the most daft newspaper reporter must be aware now that the Arctic is a very cold and icy place.
My hat is off to the Catlin team for providing an invaluable education to those of us enjoying the springtime at lower latitudes. Hopefully they will return home safely to their families, and produce a useful and unbiased report of their findings about the ice.
This education for the public on the enduring cold of the Arctic is not marred by the fact that they failed to deliver on many early promises, including reaching the North Pole. Maybe this is why the press is pretty much ignoring them now, with only 14 hits in a Google News search for “Catlin Arctic Ice Survey”.
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Sorry for my last post, NSIDC just updated the graph and it seemsreally good, hope it could go like that for the whole summer
Hope they don’t get eaten by a “stranded” polar bear on the way back.
Steven Goddard (07:56:28) :
During the time they have been on the ice, temperatures have ranged from -50C to -7C. What would you hypothesize the “melt rate” has been at those temperatures?
You scare me!
Does melting occur from top or bottom. Surely this is obvious at these temps only bottom melt can occur. Melted ice (salt water) is in contact with frozen water (ice). As the temperture above the ice varies the temp at the interface varies -freezing the water or melting the ice until equilibrium is returned.!!!!!!!
In response to discussion about fuel containers being left on the ice, the following is taken from Catlin’s web site:
“Additional fuel is also still cached out on the ice, at the halfway point between Eureka and the Ice Team’s location. These barrels will also be picked up and used, either on the outward journey or on the return. Caching fuel is a standard part of operating out on the ice. Barrels are always marked up with the owner’s details, to avoid them being simply abandoned. Since the ice is at the mercy of the winds and ocean currents, barrels are never likely to be in the same position that they were left, and as such, fuel caches are also always tagged with a locator beacon.”
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/The_countdown_begins
bill,
At -40C, one might guess that the ice is getting thicker – unless there is a volcano or nuclear reactor under the ice.
Another possibility is that your brain simply needs retraining – after listening to too much AGW BS for much too long. Thanks for the laugh though.
From the last update:
**The challenges that the bitter cold brought, early in the expedition, have now subsided and the difficulty now is dealing with open water and the rapidly melting sea ice.**
Can we really expect facts from this Trip? The ice is melting rapidly??
As I said above earlier – They can come back with kayaks and paddle to the pole.
If you check Phil’s little video, after you watch all of it, YouTube also offers some similar subject videos, including a two minute advertisement from Mora, showcasing the Nova drill that is being used by the Catlin Ice Team. It is apparently designed for use in ice fishing, as that is what they show people doing after using the drill. People need to remember that 10 centimeters sounds small, but it is 4 inches, and that is the diameter of the hole that is being drilled.
Now, in Phil’s video, I would estimate the young lady is drilling through about 8-10 inches of ice in the twenty five seconds of drilling we see. This is based upon the height of the drill threads we see compared to her lower legs, and how much of the drill is still visible when she penetrates the ice to the water. This would be equal to one fourth of one of the 80 cm drill segments Hadow is using. So, based upon this metric, the actual drilling time for 1.5 to 2.0 meters (60 to 80 inches) of ice would figure out to between 3 to 5 minutes.
But that does not take into account the time needed to attach the additional drill segments. To drill through 1.5 m, Pen would only need one attachment, but three for 2.0 m. And, if we take into account that one picture we have where it looks like the drill is twice Pen’s height, he has needed to add at least five segments (4.0 m) at some point. That sort of hole would have taken at least 8 minutes of drilling time. Does anyone know how long it takes to bolt an addition on to an ice drill?
Assuming you can attach next section in about a minute, that would keep our individual hole drill time to between five to ten minutes on average. But as the auger length increases, it takes more energy and greater care to turn the bit. Anyone who has ever manually drilled a hole in wood learns this. Force it too hard, and the drill breaks, often at a segment joint. So, I would estimate any drill hole requiring more than one segment addition would increase in time at least two or three minutes extra just to be careful and not break the auger.
This gives a final estimate of between seven to fifteen minutes per hole depending upon depth. Throw in about five minutes to let the water settle after drilling, ten to fifteen for the measurements, and you are looking at around half an hour per hole, and then travel time between each drill location. If Pen does his ten holes per day, I would say he is spending between four to six hours on this one activity. I have to applaud his cardiovascular conditioning.
Enduser: The only reliable SST graphs at this time appear to be UNISYS
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
They sesm to be VERY different to NOAA SST (look at mediterrenian and north sea)
Just a few thoughts:
I love that they’re being ‘extracted’ from the ice – not ‘rescued’.
I love that since it’s ‘warming’ Pen has been able to go about and collect “even more ‘scientific’ data.” Wouldn’t the word ‘data’ suffice? They keep hammering away at that word ‘scientific’.
And finally this:
” . . . It’s bound to be an emotional time for the Ice Team. On the one hand reflecting on an epic trip across the Arctic Ocean and on the other desperately looking forward to being back in civilization and seeing friends and family again.”
Waaaaiiit a minute.
” . . on an epic trip across the Arctic Ocean.” ?
Seems they left out the bit about FROZEN sea water.
Also: ‘extracting’ any mention of their joyful anticipation of in being back in WARMTH – is ignoring the almost unendurable and deadly ‘cold’ that is the great frozen Arctic Ocean.
Do ya think they have an agenda?
Nah.
You’re right Cathy. They are trying too hard avoid all mention of the the great frozen cold of the North. Their agenda is plain for all to see. Still this doesn’t stop us talking about it through chattering teeth!
And next year
The Ice Warrior Northern Pole of Inacessibility Expedition 2010
http://www.ice-warrior.com/ArcticPole.htm
“Although the Arctic Pole has never been reached before and represents a true World First, Jim’s real motivation is to convey the reality of global climate change with unprecedented reporting direct from the Arctic Ocean. As he and his team gather crucial climate change data for the scientific community he will be telling the tale warts-an-all with all the trials and tribulations, peaks and troughs that occur when pushing the limits of human endurance and facing the harshest adversities Mother Nature can deliver.”
@ur momisugly M White:
I followed the link you provided to the Ice Warrior.
I’m thinking to myself: this HAS to be a joke. I mean- read THIS:
” . . . This will be Jim’s 3rd attempt at reaching the pole. This first was quashed in base camp in 2003 when he contracted flesh eating disease in his left ankle, 24 hours before departure. The second he was thwarted by the disintegrating sea ice 130 miles north of the last landfall, finally falling into the frigid waters whilst he was reporting for ITN and BBC Online (both on board for the 3rd attempt).”
If it’s not a joke – this guy is clearly a masochist.
M White (11:26:43) : said
“And next year
The Ice Warrior Northern Pole of Inacessibility Expedition 2010
http://www.ice-warrior.com/ArcticPole.htm
Come on Anthony, why don’t we all club together and sponsor this guy? We could have a nice big WUWT logo prominent which would be seen on worldwide green tv-annoying all the warmists. I suggest an inverted Hockey Stick:)
tonyb
This is good for a laugh…
If anyone doubts the BBC’s bigoted reporting about Global Warming, just go to this page on their website:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/science/arcticmeltdown.shtml
This page has been there since August 2005 and clearly states, against all the evidence, that the Arctic is about to melt, the polar bears are all going to drown and most of the ………..
I know what; Let’s see what they’re actually saying:
“Then there’s the Wildlife. From polar bears to tiny Arctic plankton, every species in the delicate Arctic ecosystem will suffer catastrophically from the loss of the ice. Many will never recover. Some experts predict that the polar bears of Hudson Bay will be extinct in 20 -30 years time because they will be unable to spend enough time on the melting sea ice to feed.
But it is not just the animals that will suffer. The people of the Arctic also face dramatic change. Traditionally peoples like the Inuit have relied on the stable seasons and the consistent migration of animals for their livelihood. Now faced with dwindling populations of seals and caribou and frozen tundra turned to slush, the Inuit are facing crisis point. Hunters following age old trails now find themselves falling through the delicate veneer of ice that now covers the oceans while “environmental refugees” are being forced to leave their traditions and seek new lives in the south.
Arctic Meltdown weighs up the extent and implications of the imminent ice breakup.”
Got that spot on then. Apart from the fact that it’s utter fiction.
I thought they would have problems getting up to speed again physically, after being on short rations with the weather keeping their resupply flight delayed.
Don’t know about the “is going to look like Lou Ferrigno” comment, I would be more inclined to think they have all lost a substantial amount of body mass, and that body mass is probably going to include Martin losing the toe(or toes).
But never fear, there is always the next green opportunist ready to take their place, http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/arctic-voyage-to-focus-on-climate-change-44702157.html?viewAllComments=y
Steven Goddard (09:14:58) :
At -40C, one might guess that the ice is getting thicker – unless there is a volcano or nuclear reactor under the ice.
By the way, personal insults do nothing for your agument.
If you check out this plot from one of the buoys mentioned some few threads ago http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/7200/2006c.jpg
you will notice that the ice water interface is at -2C the Ice surface is at -23C. (air temp -31C) The ice thickness is 200cm. This is presumably a stable position. 9.52cm/degC
Currently Catlin are seeing air temperatures of -8C . If this is maintained then it will support an ice thickness of only 57 cm (assuming -8C is the ice not air temp.)
bill,
Sea water freezes at -2C/ If you kept the temperature over the ice permanently at -8C, it would eventually freeze all the way to the sea floor – unless there is another source of heat in the system.
Please give it a rest – you are just talking gibberish.
**“Although the Arctic Pole has never been reached before and represents a true World First, Jim’s real motivation is to convey the reality of global climate change with unprecedented reporting direct from the Arctic Ocean.**
They are correct – so what is the Arctic Pole?????
Steve I suggest you try reading this – it may help
The complete idiot’s guide to the Arctic and Antarctic By Jack Williams
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=PGGMCHTjADEC&pg=PA51&lpg=PA51&dq=seawater+freeze+halocline&source=bl&ots=eOJM4t9rS8&sig=jy-9cqO7Kuh4sHAdlOgTjLjHD8U&hl=en&ei=tAgKSubHKKOsjAeIwvmPCw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=2#PPA50,M1
I hope this helps
@TonyB (11:48:20) :
Re:
The Ice Warrior Northern Pole of Inacessibility Expedition 2010
http://www.ice-warrior.com/ArcticPole.htm
“Come on Anthony, why don’t we all club together and sponsor this guy? We could have a nice big WUWT logo prominent which would be seen on worldwide green tv-annoying all the warmists. I suggest an inverted Hockey Stick:)”
Not one penny from me for the expedition. I do think the WUWT readership might want to establish a rescue fund. Given his track record, he’ll be sure to need it. We can slap a WUWT logo on the rescue ‘copter.
A non-scientist fan. re: ads on your page. found them unobtrusive, except for one that matched “Catlin Arctic Ice Survey Packing it Up” with a Dreyer’s Ice Cream ad. I’m heading to the store to purchase some Dreyer’s before it melts due to AGW.
“May day! May day!”
~Steven Goddard
two bottom graph :
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
BBC propaganda:
Hm-m-m-m. Except for the verifiable fact that global sea ice is increasing.
The Bovine Fecal Purveyance Specialists running the BBC ignore the undisputed fact that there is no loss of global ice. None. Global ice is increasing.
The BBC engages in their baseless scare tactics with no facts to back them up. I invite any member of the alarmist contingent to dispute that.
It is a sad state of affairs that the formerly great BBC has sunk so low. Goebbels would be proud of them.
Smokey (20:24:24) :
…. and it’s mandatory for Brits to have to pay for the pleasure of being lied to too but, as they say over there – “mustn’t grumble”.
“Some experts” – I wonder who they are then – the editor’s mum’s hairdresser’s cousin’s milkman’s nephews ?? Not very peer-reviewed is it ?
HR 17.30.30
Thats an even beter idea than mine. So WUWT could become a sort of international rescue for failed green expeditions to cold and hostile environments
We could call the service;
‘I can’t believe its not hotter.’
tonyb